Adani Energy Solutions Limited — Q3 FY26 earnings call

Call held 23 Jan 2026

Management summary

Adani Energy Solutions reported a strong Q3 FY26 with significant growth in income, EBITDA, and PAT, driven by robust performance in transmission and smart metering. The company expanded its project pipeline to ~INR 78,000 crores and is on track to commission several key projects. While facing some execution delays in HVDC and land acquisition, management remains confident in future growth, particularly in smart metering and new C&I and cooling verticals, with a revised FY26 capex target of INR 14,500-15,000 crores.

Highlights

  • Adjusted PAT grew 30% YoY, considering one-time deferred tax effect of INR 185 crores last year.

  • Consolidated EBITDA reached INR 2,200 crores quarterly, marking a 21% growth.

  • Income grew by 16% YoY, and consolidated PBT rose by 43% to INR 800 crores.

  • Project pipeline expanded to ~INR 78,000 crores, with 7 projects poised for capitalization adding ~INR 25,000 crores gross block.

  • Installed ~1.9 million smart meters in Q3 FY26, bringing the aggregate count to ~9.2 million, on track to cross 10 million by year-end.

Concerns

  • HVDC Mumbai project commissioning delayed, now expected in 30-45 days due to Vasai creek issues, working permissions, and prolonged rain.

  • FY26 capex guidance revised downwards to INR 14,500-15,000 crores from INR 16,000 crores, mainly due to some transmission projects spilling over into the next financial year.

  • Land acquisition challenges for Bhadla-Fatehpur HVDC and substation land for Jamnagar project, causing delays to original schedules.

Key financials

  1. Adjusted PAT Growth 30% +30%YoY
  2. Income Growth 16% +16%YoY
  3. Consolidated EBITDA ₹2,200 Cr +21%YoY
  4. Consolidated PBT ₹800 Cr +43%YoY

What they filed

Q1 FY27: revenue up 42.4%, net profit up 129.5% against the same quarter last year.

₹ Cr · quarterly
Line itemQ2 FY25Q3 FY25Q4 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27
Revenue6,184 5,830 6,375 6,819 6,596 +7%6,730 +15%7,443 +17%9,711 +42%
EBITDA1,715 1,661 2,040 1,811 1,955 +14%1,995 +20%2,145 +5%3,008 +66%
Net profit773 625 714 539 557 −28%574 −8%723 +1%1,237 +129%
How to read this

₹ crore, as filed. The percentage beside a figure is the change against the same quarter a year earlier — never the quarter before, which would make every seasonal business look like it collapses and booms each year.

Order book

high confidence

Total value

₹78,000 Cr

as of 2025-12-31 quantified

Inflow this quarter

₹13,600 Cr

Pipeline

other

Smart meters yet to be bid out

The company has a strong project pipeline in transmission and a significant bidding opportunity in smart metering, expecting to maintain market share.

Source: Prepared remarks

Capital allocation

high confidence
  • Capex ₹15,000 Cr Cut — some projects spilled over by 1 or 2 months into the next financial year, mainly in transmission.
    • Transmission projects (annual average for next 5 years) ₹18,000 Cr
    • AEML distribution business ₹1,500 Cr

    Previously planned ₹16,000 Cr

    So we did capex of INR9,294 crores till 9 months. By the end of this financial year, we would be in the range of around INR15,000-odd crores once the entire capex has been completed for transmission, smart meter and distribution. ... So, some of the projects got spilled over by 1 or 2 months in the next financial year. So that's the reason why the INR12,000-odd crores, I mean, just about INR1,000-odd crores, we had guided the market to around INR16,000 crores. We are currently looking at around INR14,500 crores to INR15,000-odd crores. ... And the downward is mainly in transmission.
  • Debt Gross ₹48,000 Cr · Net ₹38,000 Cr · 4.3× EBITDA Maturity: 7.9 years (average for dollar and INR bonds)
    • Refinance Refinance $500 million bond maturing in August '27 in the next 1-2 months. $500 Mn
    • Repayment Bond buyback of $95 million in FY26 ($50 million in Q1 and $45 million in Q2) for AEML. $95 Mn
    So our total net debt currently as we speak is INR38,000-odd crores, of which INR48,000 crores is gross debt, and we have cash balance of INR9,600-odd crores. Out of the INR47,000 of gross debt we have, we have roughly INR9,700 crores of the U.S. dollar bonds in Adani Electricity Mumbai and INR10,500-odd crores of bonds in the transmission business. So around INR25,000-odd crores of dollar bonds in INR47,000 crores of the debt that we just mentioned. And our leverage currently is 4.3, which was 4.4 in September based on the published results. Currently, we are at 4.3 based on the trailing 12 months basis. And we will continue to maintain that always.
  • Liquidity Cash ₹9,600 Cr
    So our total net debt currently as we speak is INR38,000-odd crores, of which INR48,000 crores is gross debt, and we have cash balance of INR9,600-odd crores.

Guidance & targets

Capitalization

  • Gross Block Addition Capitalization · next 12 to 15 months · High confidence ~INR 25,000 crores
    And based on that, we are looking to have a capitalization of at least INR25,000-odd crores in the next 12 to 15 months.

    — Kunjal Mehta

Smart Metering

  • Total Meter Installations Smart Metering · by year-end FY26 · High confidence 1 crore
    And by the time we close this year, we will certainly cross 1 crore meter installations.

    — Kandarp Patel

  • Daily Meter Installations Smart Metering · daily · High confidence 22,000 to 25,000 meters
    So we have been making all those efforts in picking up that execution rate. So we are installing about 22,000 to 25,000 meters a day.

    — Kandarp Patel

Transmission Bidding

  • Bidding Opportunity Transmission Bidding · next 12 months · High confidence INR 70,000-80,000 crores
    Conservatively, we think that bidding for at least INR70,000 crores, INR80,000 crores will happen in the next 12 months.

    — Kandarp Patel

  • Annual Bidding Opportunity Transmission Bidding · every year · Medium confidence INR 80,000-90,000 crores
    But on a steady-state basis, we believe that it will be about INR80,000 crores, INR90,000 crores bidding that will happen every year.

    — Kandarp Patel

HVDC Project

  • Mumbai HVDC Commissioning HVDC Project · another 30 to 45 days · High confidence Commissioned

    Previously Q2 FY26 → Commissioned

    So, all the work is completed there. Testing and commissioning is going on. So, we expect that to get commissioned in another 30 to 45 days.

    — Kandarp Patel

Transmission Projects

  • Jamnagar and Navinal Completion Transmission Projects · last quarter of next financial year – FY27 · High confidence Complete
    Yes, Jamnagar and Navinal both will get complete in last quarter of next financial year – FY27.

    — Kandarp Patel

  • Khavda-IV A Completion Transmission Projects · next financial year · High confidence 1 element in Q2 FY27, another in Q3 FY27
    Khavda-IV A, will be -- 1 element will be in the second quarter, one another element will be in third quarter of the next financial year

    — Kandarp Patel

  • Pune-III Completion Transmission Projects · last quarter of next financial year · High confidence Complete
    and Pune-III in the last quarter of next financial year.

    — Kandarp Patel

C&I Business

  • Margin C&I Business · High confidence INR 0.75+ per unit
    In fact, C&I business will be a very interesting one where we won't have any capex to do. But despite the fact that because of our solutioning capability, the margins would be significantly high of the order of INR 0.75 plus per unit.

    — Kandarp Patel

Debt Refinancing

  • $500M Bond Refinancing Debt Refinancing · next 1 to 2 months · High confidence Refinanced
    Yes, yes, we are working towards that, and we would refinance that at least in the next 2 to 3 months and complete the refinancing.

    — Kandarp Patel

What to watch in Q4 FY26

Mumbai HVDC Commissioning

next 30-45 days
Current Testing and commissioning ongoing
Target Commercial operation

Why it matters

Timely commissioning of this landmark project will contribute to capitalization and revenue.

So, all the work is completed there. Testing and commissioning is going on. So, we expect that to get commissioned in another 30 to 45 days.

Risks & concerns

  • HVDC Project Commissioning Delays

    medium

    Mumbai HVDC project delayed due to Vasai creek issues, working permissions, and prolonged rain, now expected in 30-45 days.

    Management acknowledged

  • Land Acquisition Challenges

    medium

    Challenges in land acquisition for Fatehpur (Bhadla-Fatehpur HVDC) and substation land for Jamnagar project, causing delays.

    Management acknowledged

  • Regulatory Delays for Transmission Projects

    medium

    Navinal project delayed due to the issuance of transmission license from CERC, impacting 164 approval.

    Management acknowledged

  • Execution Challenges (Equipment, Manpower, ROW)

    medium

    General execution challenges related to equipment supply, manpower availability, and Right of Way (ROW) issues, exacerbated by abnormal rain.

    Management acknowledged

  • Tendering Slowdown

    medium

    Tendering activity slowed down as certain transmission projects were re-evaluated based on changes in generation and demand profiles.

    Management acknowledged

Q&A highlights

8 direct
Smart meter order book and future opportunities Direct
As far as smart meter bidding is concerned, there are a few states where bidding is yet to happen or yet to conclude. One is Tamil Nadu, that bidding happened, but I think they will reinvite the bid. But there are a few other states like Karnataka, Telangana. They got the DPR approved under RDSS. I believe those states have now filed the DPR with MOP. And on receipt of that approval, they will also come out with bidding. So we expect that significant action we will see in smart metering bidding in next couple of quarters.

Analyst inquired about the lack of new smart meter order wins, and management provided an update on upcoming bidding opportunities from various states.

Asked by Mohit Kumar

Transmission bidding slowdown and future outlook Direct
So, Mohit, the project that has been approved by NCT and those state various state STUs, if you add all those projects, it crosses INR1 lakh crores bidding opportunity. Conservatively, we think that bidding for at least INR70,000 crores, INR80,000 crores will happen in the next 12 months.

Analyst noted a slowdown in transmission bids, and management provided a forward-looking estimate for bidding opportunities in the next 12 months.

Asked by Mohit Kumar

HVDC commissioning timeline delay Direct
So, all the work is completed there. Testing and commissioning is going on. So, we expect that to get commissioned in another 30 to 45 days. ... So, there were 2 major issues we had to resolve in HVDC on Vasai creek. And there were some working permissions related issue because of which it got delayed. And there is also 4-kilometer of stretch of cabling that is to be done in Aarey Colony. There, we took a little more time because that rain got prolonged, and we have to make a very, very focused effort there that while we do that underground cabling work, we don't damage any ecosystem.

Analyst questioned the delay in HVDC commissioning, and management explained the specific reasons for the delay, including regulatory permissions and weather.

Asked by Mohit Kumar

Funding future capex and debt strategy Direct
So, in AEML, as I just told, that business, whatever capex that is there is being funded through its internal accruals. So is the case with respect to the smart meter business. Smart meter business has a low gestation period. And because of that, it is able to fund its own capex. In fact, the -- what we are actually doing is that securitizing the receivables of smart meter based on the meters that we have installed, we are securitizing that meters, and that is funding more internal accruals for my transmission projects.

Analyst asked about capex funding, and management clarified that AEML and smart metering capex are self-funded through internal accruals and securitization of receivables, respectively, reducing reliance on external debt for these segments.

Asked by Pratik Chitaleya

Leverage and total debt by March '26 Direct
So, it would be in this range itself. The net debt would be in the range of INR38,000 crores to INR40,000-odd crores, because we have the natural amortization of the repayment, which is also happening parallelly.

Analyst sought clarity on the company's net debt target for March '26, and management provided a range, indicating stability despite ongoing capex.

Asked by Vishal Biraia

Revision in FY26 capex and capitalization Direct
So we did capex of INR9,294 crores till 9 months. By the end of this financial year, we would be in the range of around INR15,000-odd crores once the entire capex has been completed for transmission, smart meter and distribution. ... So, some of the projects got spilled over by 1 or 2 months in the next financial year. So that's the reason why the INR12,000-odd crores, I mean, just about INR1,000-odd crores, we had guided the market to around INR16,000 crores. We are currently looking at around INR14,500 crores to INR15,000-odd crores.

Analyst noted a downward revision in capex and capitalization guidance, and management explained it was due to project spill-overs into the next fiscal year, primarily in transmission.

Asked by Shirom Kapur

Smart metering 6 crore target and market share Direct
So the 6 crores was we were talking about that number of a couple of years back. In last unfortunately, in the last entire financial year, there was no significant bidding opportunity came up. That as I explained to you, there were many states who initially never wanted to become a part of RDSS. They didn't come out with a bidding. Now most of them have submitted their proposal to Ministry of Power, and we expect that bidding to happen in next year. And we will if not reach to 6 crores, but we will at least maintain our market share, meaning thereby we would have about 5 crores of meter concession.

Analyst asked about the previously stated 6 crore smart meter target, and management clarified the context of past bidding delays and reaffirmed a long-term target of 5 crore meters while maintaining market share.

Asked by Anuj Upadhyay

HVDC valve assembly procurement challenges Direct
No, we are not facing any challenge. In fact, for the recent HVDC project that we have won, which is Khavda-Olpad, we already finalized and closed the contract with OEM. ... Yes, yes. We have closed that contract with GE. And in fact, we have been able to sorry, we have been able to agree with them for a schedule which is far more aggressive than completion schedule given in the bid timeline.

Analyst inquired about potential challenges in procuring critical HVDC components, and management confirmed no issues, having already secured contracts with OEMs like GE for new projects.

Asked by Prateek Dugar

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Detailed narrative

Q3 & 9M FY26 Financial Performance Highlights

Adani Energy Solutions Limited delivered a strong financial performance in Q3 FY26, with income growing by 16% YoY. Consolidated EBITDA reached INR 2,200 crores, marking a 21% growth, while consolidated PBT rose by 43% to INR 800 crores. The adjusted PAT growth stood at 30% YoY, accounting for a one-time deferred tax effect from the previous year. This robust performance reflects significant progress across the company's transmission and smart metering businesses.

Transmission Business Update and Pipeline

The company's project pipeline has expanded to approximately INR 78,000 crores. In the first 9 months of FY26, four transmission projects were commissioned, including NKTL, Khavda Phase-II Part-A, Khavda Pooling Station, and Sangod Transmission project. An additional three projects, including the landmark HVDC project, are on track for commissioning in the coming months. Management anticipates annual transmission capex to be in the range of INR 18,000-20,000 crores for the next five years.

Smart Metering Progress and Outlook

Adani Energy Solutions installed approximately 1.9 million smart meters during Q3 FY26, bringing the aggregate installed base to about 9.2 million meters. The company is on track to surpass 1 crore (10 million) installations by the end of FY26. Management noted a daily installation rate of 22,000-25,000 meters. The pipeline for smart metering remains strong, with over 100 million meters yet to be bid out, and the company expects to maintain its market share, targeting about 5 crore meters in the long term.

Capital Management and Debt Profile

The company's net debt currently stands at INR 38,000 crores, with gross debt at INR 48,000 crores and a cash balance of INR 9,600 crores. The net debt to EBITDA leverage is 4.3x, consistent with the target range of 4.0-4.5x. Approximately INR 25,000 crores of the total debt comprises dollar bonds. The company plans to refinance a $500 million bond maturing in August '27 within the next 1-2 months. AEML also conducted bond buybacks totaling $95 million in FY26.

New Growth Verticals: C&I, Cooling, and Data Centers

The C&I (Commercial & Industrial) business is identified as a major growth driver, with the aggregate load reaching 1,300 megawatts, serving 31 consumers. Management expects high margins of over INR 0.75 per unit from this segment. In the cooling business, Adani Energy Solutions is developing India's largest district cooling facility of 40,000 metric tons of refrigeration at Mundra. The company also sees significant value in data centers by providing end-to-end power infrastructure and connectivity solutions.

Execution Challenges and Mitigation

The company faced some execution challenges, leading to delays in the Mumbai HVDC project due to issues at Vasai creek, working permissions, and prolonged rain. Land acquisition for the Bhadla-Fatehpur HVDC and Jamnagar projects also caused delays. Additionally, the Navinal project was delayed due to the issuance of a transmission license from CERC. To address manpower challenges, the company has established a training facility at Gorda, aiming to provide 400-500 trained personnel quarterly for EPC partners.

Future Bidding Opportunities and Capex Outlook

Management anticipates significant bidding opportunities in transmission, with INR 70,000-80,000 crores expected in the next 12 months, and an annual run rate of INR 80,000-90,000 crores. The FY26 capex guidance has been revised downwards to INR 14,500-15,000 crores from the earlier INR 16,000 crores, primarily due to some transmission projects spilling over into the next financial year. However, the company expects capitalization of at least INR 25,000 crores in the next 12-15 months from ongoing projects.

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