Detailed Narrative
EBITDA Guidance Upgraded to INR 22,800 Crores on Broad-Based Strength
APSEZ raised FY26 EBITDA guidance by INR 800 crores to INR 22,800 crores, backed by 9-month EBITDA of INR 16,830 crores. Operating cash flow for FY26 estimated at over INR 18,000 crores after interest (~INR 1,800 crores) and tax. The upgrade reflects outperformance across all four business pillars rather than any single driver. The Japan Credit Research Agency rated APSEZ a notch above India sovereign.
Vizhinjam Phase II Signals Massive Transshipment Ambition
APSEZ announced INR 16,000 crores for Vizhinjam Phase II, expanding capacity by 4.1 million TEUs to a total of 5.7 million TEUs. Capex is phased: INR 90M (FY26), INR 350M (FY27), INR 700M (FY28), INR 550M (FY29), INR 63M (FY30). The port achieved world-class GCR of 30 lifts/hour in December, just 8 months after operations began. An MOU with BPCL for LNG ship-to-ship bunkering positions Vizhinjam as a green fueling hub on the international shipping lane.
NQXT Australia Consolidation Begins with Strong Margin Profile
NQXT consolidation starts January 2026 with gross debt of INR 4,744 crores. The asset runs at 65% EBITDA margin with current $350 million revenue and $230 million EBITDA. Management targets $520 million revenue and $400 million EBITDA (77% margin) as contracts renegotiate in FY28-FY29. Non-port-related assets ($2.54 billion) have been fully divested and approved by shareholders. Nameplate capacity of 50 million tons.
DFC Impact Dismissed - Mundra's Distance Advantage Structural
CEO provided the most detailed rebuttal of DFC disruption risk to date. Mundra has a 300-350 km distance advantage over competing ports, translating to 5-6 additional railway slabs costing thousands of rupees per TEU. Combined with Mundra's superior draft, vessel turnaround, and shipping line relationships, management sees zero business loss from DFC. The company expects the industry overall to benefit as rail modal share increases.
FY29 Five-Year Plan Trajectory Remains on Track
Management reiterated the FY29 targets of INR 65,500 crores revenue and INR 36,500 crores EBITDA without revision. The only identified risk is a major global trade turmoil. Total investment program is INR 35,000 crores (INR 50,000 crores for ports), which can be funded entirely from operating cash flows with no need for fresh borrowing. Leverage is expected to decline on a net basis even with the investment program.
Coal Proportion Settling at 20-22% as Container Takes Lead
CFO guided coal proportion to settle at 20-22% of volumes over 5 years, down from 30% in FY24. Thermal coal imports are declining (all-India -2.7%) but coastal coal (+1.9%) and coking coal (+10.8%) are growing. Management emphasized that overall coal is NOT declining, only imported thermal coal. Container remains the fastest growing segment at ~20% growth. Oil and gas products are expected to gain share over the next 5 years.