Adani Power — Q2 FY26 earnings call

Call held 30 Oct 2025

Management summary

Adani Power delivered stable Q2 FY26 results despite unprecedented monsoon conditions that suppressed power demand and merchant tariffs. The company grew volumes 7%+ through competitive PPAs and increased capacity. Strategic focus on long-term PPA tie-ups continued with major wins in Bihar, MP, and Karnataka, taking PPA coverage to ~91%. The massive 23.7 GW expansion is fully de-risked with 100% equipment ordering done. CEO Khyalia outlined a clear path from 18 GW to 42 GW by FY32 with earnings growth driven by high capacity charges in new PPAs.

Highlights

  • Power sales grew 7%+ to 23.7 billion units despite extended monsoon impacting demand

  • Continuing revenue at INR 13,639 crores, slightly up YoY; EBITDA at INR 5,333 crores vs INR 5,402 crores

  • PAT of INR 2,906 crores, healthy but slightly below INR 3,298 crores YoY due to higher deferred tax

  • Won PPAs: Bihar 2,400 MW, MP 1,600 MW, Karnataka 570 MW; PPA coverage now ~91%

  • L1 bidder for Assam 3,200 MW with commission approval received

  • 4 projects under construction (6,120 MW) to be commissioned FY27-FY29; 100% BTG advance-ordered for entire 23.7 GW

  • Revived 600 MW Butibori plant within 2 months of acquisition; signed 500 MW Maharashtra PPA

  • Total expansion pipeline bids at ~22 GW across multiple states

Key financials

2 periods

Headline

  • Revenue (Continuing) Q2
    ₹13,639 Cr
    YoY +1.3%
  • EBITDA (Continuing) Q2
    ₹5,333 Cr
    YoY -1.3%
  • PAT Q2
    ₹2,906 Cr
    YoY -11.9%
  • Power Sales Q2
    23.7 billion units
    YoY +7.7%
  • PLF Q2
    62.8%
  • Total Debt (Sep 2025)
    ₹47,254 Cr
  • Net Debt
    ₹36,776 Cr
  • Fuel Cost Q2
    ₹7,205 Cr
    YoY +2.4%
  • Merchant Realization Q2
    ₹5.37/kwh
    YoY -8.7%
  • PPA Realization Q2
    ₹5.7/kwh
  • Prior Period Income Q2
    ₹669 Cr

H1

  • Revenue (Continuing)
    ₹27,807 Cr
    YoY -2.5%
  • EBITDA (Continuing)
    ₹11,076 Cr
    YoY -5.3%
  • PAT
    ₹6,212 Cr
    YoY -13.8%
  • PBT (Continuing)
    ₹7,096 Cr
    YoY -11.5%

What they filed

Q1 FY27: revenue up 34.0%, net profit up 47.3% against the same quarter last year.

₹ Cr · quarterly
Line itemQ2 FY25Q3 FY25Q4 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27
Revenue13,339 13,671 14,237 14,109 13,457 +1%12,451 −9%14,223 −0%18,902 +34%
EBITDA5,276 5,023 4,813 5,685 5,150 −2%4,238 −16%4,732 −2%7,949 +40%
Net profit3,298 2,940 2,599 3,305 2,906 −12%2,488 −15%4,271 +64%4,867 +47%
How to read this

₹ crore, as filed. The percentage beside a figure is the change against the same quarter a year earlier — never the quarter before, which would make every seasonal business look like it collapses and booms each year.

Segment breakdown

  • ₹1,049 Cr Revenue
  • ₹677 Cr Revenue
  • ₹339 Cr Revenue

Guidance & targets

Capacity Expansion

  • Total capacity target Capacity Expansion · FY32 · High confidence 42 GW by FY32
    We are set firmly on our path to raise our generation capacity from 18 GW to 42 GW by 2032.

    — S. B. Khyalia

  • FY27 commissioning Capacity Expansion · FY27 · High confidence ~3 GW
    We are going to commission around 3 GW in next year.

    — S. B. Khyalia

Capital Expenditure

  • Total expansion capex Capital Expenditure · Over expansion period · High confidence ~INR 2 lakh crores
    It is approximately Rs. 2 lakhs crore.

    — S. B. Khyalia

Revenue Strategy

  • Merchant rate H2 expectation Revenue Strategy · H2 FY26 · Medium confidence ~INR 6/unit
    For the balance period, we are expecting an average realization of around Rs. 6 or so.

    — Dilip Jha

Operations

  • Godda Indian grid connection Operations · Dec 2025 · High confidence Connected by December 2025
    We are expecting that it will get connected by December 2025.

    — S. B. Khyalia

  • Dhirauli mine coal production Operations · FY27 · High confidence Box cutting by end FY26, coal production from FY27
    By end of this year only, the box cutting will be done and from next year, we will have coal production from the mine.

    — Dilip Jha

Risks & concerns

  • Extended monsoon suppressing power demand and merchant tariffs

    medium

    PLF fell to 62.8% from 66.9% YoY; merchant realization down ~10% to INR 5.37/kWh

    Management temporary weather phenomenon; long-term demand drivers intact

  • Debt increase from INR 38,335 crores to INR 47,254 crores in 6 months

    medium

    Net debt at INR 36,776 crores; management emphasizes efficient capital structure

    Bridge financing for capex; will be funded mostly from internal accruals over time

  • Bangladesh/Godda geopolitical risk

    medium

    Grid connection allows selling in India if Bangladesh stops scheduling or defaults on payment

    Analyst only 1.5 months overdue; indian grid connection by dec 2025 provides backup

  • Regulatory uncertainty on state-level PPA approvals

    low

    Multiple state bids at various stages; process dependent on state decision-making

    Analyst cannot estimate state timelines; rajasthan bid submission next month, uttarakhand docs under regulator review

Q&A highlights

3 direct
PPA bid pipeline expanding to 22 GW Direct
Rajasthan 3,200 MW, Uttarakhand 1,320 MW, Maharashtra 1,600 MW, UP 4,000 MW, WB 2,260 MW, Karnataka 1,600 MW, Gujarat 4,000 MW, Assam 3,200 MW - total ~22,000 MW.

Pipeline far exceeds the ~12 GW still untied, giving company strong optionality in PPA selection

Asked by Shirom Kapur (Jefferies)

Godda plant Indian grid connection and selling conditions Direct
Allowed under two conditions: persistent no scheduling from Bangladesh or payment default under PPA.

Indian grid connection by Dec 2025 provides crucial risk mitigation for Bangladesh exposure

Asked by Aniket Mittal (SBI MF)

Equipment ordering and delivery confidence Partial
Deliveries ranging from 38 to 75 months, staggered. All four projects ahead of time. 8 machines of 800 MW to L&T, balance to BHEL.

100% advance BTG ordering de-risks execution; refused to share pricing citing confidentiality

Asked by Manish Somaiya (Cantor)

Thermal demand outlook vs renewables and batteries Direct
Tenders for battery backup are for token quantum. Government's resource adequacy report already considers battery and still requires thermal installation.

Strong structural argument for thermal baseload demand; even renewable-rich Gujarat floating thermal PPAs

Asked by Nikhil Nigania (Bernstein)

1 min read 4 chapters

Detailed narrative

PPA Strategy Acceleration

The quarter saw significant PPA wins: Bihar 2,400 MW, MP 1,600 MW, Karnataka 570 MW (25-year at INR 5.78/unit), Maharashtra 500 MW (5-year medium-term at INR 5.55/unit). PPA coverage rose to ~91% (16,300 MW of 18,150 MW operating). The Assam 3,200 MW bid was won as L1 with regulatory approval. The total pipeline of state thermal bids has expanded to ~22 GW, far exceeding the ~12 GW of untied upcoming capacity.

New PPA Structure Advantage

CEO explained the new standard bidding documents only require first-year tariff quotation. Fuel charges are 100% pass-through. Capacity charges escalate by 30% of WPI minus 1-2% reduction per year, effectively remaining flat. This eliminates the historical Mundra-type single levelized tariff risk. For new 24 GW, EBITDA is entirely driven by plant availability, not dispatch.

Execution Progress and Equipment Strategy

Four projects under construction totaling 6,120 MW: all ahead of schedule. 100% BTG advance ordering done for entire 23.7 GW expansion (8 machines of 800 MW to L&T, balance to BHEL). Equipment delivery staggered over 38-75 months. Management confident in timeline with no expected cost overruns. Butibori 600 MW revived within 2 months of acquisition after 10 years of shutdown.

Godda Risk Mitigation

Godda PLF at 72% (vs 73% YoY), receivables only 1.5 months outstanding. Indian grid connection expected by December 2025, providing crucial backup. Under regulations, power can be sold to Indian grid if Bangladesh stops scheduling or defaults on payment. This effectively converts Godda from a single-buyer risk to a dual-market asset.

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