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    Aegis Logistics

    AEGISLOGStrong
    Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels·31 Jul 2024
    Management Summary

    Aegis Logistics delivered a record-breaking first quarter for FY25, characterized by strong volume growth in LPG logistics and significant margin expansion in the liquid storage segment. Management expressed high confidence in their 25% CAGR growth target, backed by a massive ₹4,500 crore capex pipeline. While the distribution segment faced short-term headwinds from natural gas pricing, the core terminaling business remains robust with major expansions in Mangalore and Pipavav on track for FY26 commissioning.

    Highlights

    8
    • Reported highest-ever Q1 EBITDA of ₹250 crores, representing an 18% YoY growth.

    • Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 19% YoY to ₹158 crores.

    • Liquid division operating EBITDA grew significantly by 38% YoY to ₹108 crores.

    • LPG logistics throughput volumes reached a record 10.12 lakh metric tons, up 15% YoY.

    • Reiterated guidance of 25% CAGR over the next 3 years supported by new capacity.

    • Announced a new liquid storage terminal in Mumbai with 150,000 kiloliters capacity at a cost of ₹250 crores.

    • Capital expenditure program of ₹4,500 crores by FY27 is 50% complete or in progress.

    • LPG distribution volumes saw a temporary dip to 1.29 lakh metric tons due to aggressive natural gas pricing by competitors.

    What Changed1

    vs Q2 FY25

    Tone shiftGood → Strong

    Key financials

    Single quarter

    05 metrics
    1. 01EBITDA₹250 Cr+18%YoY
    2. 02Profit After Tax₹158 Cr+19%YoY
    3. 03EPS₹3.75+14.0%YoY
    4. 04Liquid Division EBITDA₹108 Cr+38%YoY
    5. 05LPG Division EBITDA₹142 Cr+7.0%YoY

    Segment breakdown

    • Liquid Division₹108 Cr43.2%
    • LPG Division₹142 Cr56.8%
    Donut· Share of Operating EBITDA

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Profitability
    EBITDA CAGR
    25%
    High
    Capex
    Total Capital Expenditure
    ₹4,500 crores
    High
    Capex
    Annual Capex Run-rate
    ₹1,000 crores+
    Medium
    Capacity
    Mumbai Liquid Storage Terminal
    150,000 kiloliters
    High
    Volume
    LPG Throughput Growth
    25%
    High

    Risks & concerns

    5
    RiskSeverity

    Competition from new LPG terminals at JNPT

    Management argues that LPG demand is growing at 5-7% CAGR (2 million tons/year), creating space for all players, and emphasizes their operational expertise.Analyst downplayed

    medium

    Natural Gas Price Volatility

    Aggressive pricing by gas utilities can temporarily shift industrial users away from LPG/Propane.Management acknowledged

    low

    Project Execution and Commissioning Timelines

    While on track, the 25% CAGR guidance is heavily dependent on the timely commissioning of Pipavav and Mangalore terminals in Q1 FY26.Management acknowledged

    low

    Areas of Evasion(2)

    • Specific details on the potential IPO or capital raise for the AVTL JV.
    • Detailed breakdown of standalone vs consolidated profit discrepancies beyond accounting standards.

    Q&A highlights

    3

    “It was a very kind of suicidal attempt by Gujarat Gas to lower down natural gas prices so low... But now I think July, again, natural gas prices have risen by INR2 which is substantial.”

    Explains the temporary volume dip in the distribution segment and confirms the reversal of the competitive pricing threat.

    asked by Chirag Vekariya

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Record Financial Performance and Segment Dynamics

    Aegis Logistics achieved its highest-ever Q1 EBITDA of ₹250 crores, driven by a 38% surge in the liquid division's EBITDA to ₹108 crores. The LPG logistics segment also performed strongly, with throughput volumes rising 15% YoY to 10.12 lakh metric tons. However, the LPG distribution segment faced a temporary headwind📎, with volumes dropping to 1.29 lakh metric tons as industrial customers in the Morbi cluster shifted to natural gas due to 'suicidal' pricing by Gujarat Gas. Management noted that natural gas prices have already begun to rise in July, which should normalize LPG distribution volumes in the coming quarters.

    02

    Aggressive Expansion and Capex Roadmap

    The company is halfway through its ambitious ₹4,500 crore capex program slated for completion by FY27. Key projects include the expansion of LPG capacity at Pipavav (45,000 metric tons) and Mangalore (85,000 metric tons), both expected to be commissioned in Q1 FY26. Additionally, Aegis announced a new ₹250 crore liquid storage terminal in Mumbai with 150,000 kiloliters of capacity. Management signaled that the capex run-rate might increase from ₹900 crores to over ₹1,000 crores annually beyond FY27 as they explore further opportunities in the pipeline.

    03

    Strategic Pivot to Ammonia and Sustainable Fuels

    Aligning with India's energy transition, Aegis is diversifying into ammonia logistics. The company plans to commence construction of its first ammonia terminal in Gujarat during this fiscal year. Management's goal is to become vertically integrated in the ammonia business, similar to their successful LPG model. They are also exploring opportunities for an ammonia terminal in Gopalpur, Odisha, which remains in the exploratory stage.

    04

    Competitive Moat in Cryogenic Infrastructure

    A major highlight of the call was the discussion on the Mangalore terminal's competitive advantage. Unlike existing competitors who use pressurized spheres with low unloading rates (under 400 tons/hour), Aegis's new 82,000-ton cryogenic terminal will unload VLGCs at 2,000 tons/hour. This efficiency allows a VLGC to be evacuated in 24-36 hours compared to several days at pressurized terminals, potentially saving customers up to ₹100 crores in logistics inefficiencies and demurrage.

    05

    Accounting Nuances and Subsidiary Capital Raising

    Management clarified a discrepancy where standalone profit appeared higher than consolidated profit. This was due to a ₹180 crore gain from selling CCPS in the AVTL subsidiary to Royal Vopak, which Indian accounting standards require to be recognized in standalone results but not in consolidated P&L. Furthermore, management addressed analyst concerns regarding potential capital raises at the subsidiary level (AVTL), stating that while they explore all funding possibilities, no final decisions have been made, and they will prioritize the best path for the company's growth.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.