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    Grasim Inds

    GRASIMGood
    Construction Materials·11 Feb 2025
    Management Summary

    Grasim delivered its 17th consecutive quarter of YoY revenue growth but saw EBITDA decline due to cement pricing pressure and Birla Opus launch investments. The paints business saw material step-up with Q3 being the first full quarter of multi-plant operations, gaining market share in a flat to negative industry. Chemical business showed strong profitability improvement from caustic price recovery, though chlorine remained deeply negative at ₹7,000-7,500.

    Highlights

    8
    • Consolidated revenue grew 9% YoY to ₹34,793 crores; 17th consecutive quarter of YoY revenue growth

    • Standalone revenue at highest ever ₹8,120 crores; TTM consolidated revenue at ~₹1,40,000 crores

    • Consolidated EBITDA at ₹4,668 crores, down 9% YoY due to lower cement profitability and Birla Opus investments

    • Birla Opus on track to exit FY25 with high single-digit market share; 5,500+ towns, ~50,000 dealers targeted

    • Chemical EBITDA up 25% YoY led by higher caustic soda realizations and improved chlorine derivatives profitability

    • Board approved ₹1,350 crore Lyocell capacity expansion (55K TPA Phase 1) at Harihar, Karnataka by mid-2027

    • UltraTech domestic gray cement volume grew 11% YoY; realization lower 10% YoY but improved 1.4% sequentially

    • Renewable energy capacity at 1.2 GW, expected to reach ~2 GW by end FY25

    Concerns

    1
    • Cement realization declined 10% YoY dragging consolidated EBITDA down 9%

    Key financials

    Single quarter

    03 metrics
    1. 01Consolidated Revenue₹34,793 Cr+9%YoY
    2. 02Standalone Revenue₹8,120 Cr
    3. 03Consolidated EBITDA₹4,668 Cr-9%YoY

    Segment breakdown

    Cement (UltraTech)
    11% Volume Growth-10% Realization Change YoY140% Realization Change QoQ
    Chemicals
    25% EBITDA Growth-7,250 Rs per ton (negative) Chlorine Realization100% Caustic Volume Growth
    Cellulosic Fibres
    0% Volume Change YoY89% China Operating Rates8 days China Inventory
    Financial Services (ABC)
    12% NBFC Revenue Growth45% Housing Finance Growth₹1.5L Cr Lending Portfolio-88% NIM Decline (NBFC)
    Renewables
    1.2 GW Installed Capacity
    List

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Paints
    Market share exit rate FY25
    High single-digit market share by March 2025
    High
    Paints
    EBITDA breakeven timeline
    Within 3 years of full-scale operation
    High
    Paints
    Installed capacity
    1,332 million litres across 6 plants
    High
    Balance Sheet
    Net debt to EBITDA ceiling
    3x to 3.5x
    High
    Cellulosic Fibres
    Lyocell capacity expansion Phase 1
    55K TPA at ₹1,350 crores by mid-2027
    High

    Risks & concerns

    6
    RiskSeverity

    Cement realization declined 10% YoY dragging consolidated EBITDA down 9%

    Cement pricing weakness offset volume gains of 11%. Sequential improvement of 1.4% in realization provides some comfort.Management acknowledged

    high

    Chlorine realization deeply negative at ₹7,000-7,500, eating into caustic gains

    About half of 80% YoY caustic price increase was offset by negative chlorine. Q4 chlorine expected to be more negative than Q3.Both acknowledged

    medium

    Paint industry growth flat to negative; macro slowdown weighing on demand

    Management estimates industry was flat or minus 1% in Q3. Birla Opus gained share but overall demand environment weak.Both acknowledged

    medium

    NBFC NIM compressed 88 bps YoY amid competitive intensity

    Changing cost of borrowing and competitive intensity impacting financial services profitability.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Areas of Evasion(2)

    • Paint exact revenue numbers and CWIP details
    • Epoxy specific margin levels

    Q&A highlights

    3

    “literally 65% to 70% of what we have sold and have sold out. And actually, the inventory that we have lying at the dealers is very healthy compared to other companies”

    Strong sellout data validates genuine consumer demand versus channel stuffing; healthy dealer inventory indicates sustainable growth pattern

    asked by Mihir Shah (Nomura)

    2 min read4 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Birla Opus: Material Step-Up with Multi-Plant Operations

    Birla Opus saw significant revenue jump from Q2 to Q3 with 4 plants commercialized and 866 million litres of capacity online. Sellout rate of 65-70% validates genuine demand. The brand reached 5,500+ towns with uniform geographic performance (best to worst region ratio of 110:90). Dealer additions on track for 50,000 target by year-end. Chamarajanagar plant commercialized in November; Mahad expected in Q4 FY25; Kharagpur in Q1 FY26 (delayed by Cyclone Dana). Management emphasized gains came despite flat-to-negative industry growth.

    02

    Chemical Business: Caustic Gains Partially Offset by Chlorine Negativity

    Chemical EBITDA grew 25% YoY driven by caustic soda price recovery and improved chlorine derivatives profitability. However, chlorine was deeply negative at ₹7,000-7,500 per ton, offsetting about half of the 80% YoY caustic price increase. Caustic volume growth was muted at 1% due to lower production at Vilayat from power availability issues. Epoxy margins under pressure with BPA/ECH up 13% weighted average and Korean duty-free imports via FTA. New epoxy plant at 25% ramp-up. CPVC plant with Lubrizol expected Q2 FY26.

    03

    Cellulosic Fibres: Input Cost Pressure but Lyocell Expansion Approved

    CSF volumes were flat YoY with sequential decline from production loss at Kharach and seasonal weakness. Key input costs (pulp, caustic soda, sulphur) rose 10%+ outpacing realization gains. Two price increases effected in November and February. China operating rates improved to 89% with low inventory of 8 days. Board approved 110K TPA Lyocell expansion in two phases at Harihar, with first 55K TPA phase for ₹1,350 crores by mid-2027. Lyocell EBITDA margins significantly higher than traditional CSF.

    04

    Consolidated Performance and Capital Allocation

    Consolidated EBITDA declined 9% YoY to ₹4,668 crores primarily due to cement pricing weakness (realization down 10% YoY) and Birla Opus investments. UltraTech on track for 200+ MTPA domestic capacity by FY27 with India Cement and Kesoram integrations progressing. Renewable capacity reached 1.2 GW targeting 2 GW by FY25-end. Net debt-to-EBITDA guided at 3-3.5x ceiling. Paint capex 90% done. Financial services lending book grew 27% YoY to ₹1,46,000 crores but NIM compression impacted profitability.

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