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    Kennametal India

    KENNAMETNeutral
    Capital Goods·2 Mar 2023
    Management Summary

    Kennametal India's Q3 FY23 investor meeting focused on operational impacts from the China slowdown, which significantly affected CNC machine exports. The company also discussed one-time expenses related to a new master insert plant and an increase in employee costs. Strategic discussions centered on capacity expansion, raw material dynamics, market share strategy, and growth opportunities in emerging sectors like defence, aerospace, EV, and energy, with a strong emphasis on delivering productivity to customers.

    Highlights

    7
    • China slowdown impacted 5% of top line (CNC machines) by 75-80% for the quarter.

    • Incurred a one-time expense of ₹3.4 crores (₹34 million) for machinery movement within premises.

    • Employee costs rose by ₹3.4 crores in the quarter due to merit cycle.

    • Physical infrastructure for the new master insert plant is capable of taking double the capacity.

    • Exports currently constitute 18% of overall company revenue.

    • New products launched in the last five years contribute 20-25% of revenue.

    • Management aims to beat FY22 EBITDA margins, which were around 18%.

    What Changed3

    vs Q4 FY23

    Tone shiftGood → NeutralGuidance items4 → 6 (+2)Risks discussed4 → 3 (-1)

    Key financials

    Single quarter

    06 metrics
    1. 01Machinery Movement Expense₹3.4 Cr
    2. 02Employee Cost Increase₹3.4 Cr
    3. 03Exports as % of Revenue18%
    4. 04New Products Revenue Contribution (last 5 years)20%
    5. 05New Products Revenue Contribution (last 5 years)25%

    Guidance & targets

    6
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Capacity
    Physical Infrastructure Capacity
    double the capacity
    High
    Market Recovery
    China Manufacturing Activity
    back to normal
    Medium
    Profitability
    EBITDA Margin
    beat FY22 performance
    Medium
    Inventory
    Safe Inventory Levels
    pre COVID levels
    Medium
    Growth Segments
    New Segments Conversion Rate
    grow higher
    Low
    Growth Segments
    Aerospace Growth Rate
    multiples in terms of percentage
    Medium

    Risks & concerns

    4
    RiskSeverity

    China Market Slowdown

    Slowdown in China due to COVID impacted CNC machine exports, causing a 75-80% decline in that segment for the quarter, though expected to recover in 3-4 months.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Raw Material Price Volatility

    Tungsten and Cobalt prices have strengthened, and exchange rate fluctuations (USD vs INR) pose an ongoing risk to costs.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Global Supply Chain Disruptions

    Increased safe inventory levels during COVID to ensure supply consistency, with plans to normalize inventory over the next six months.Management acknowledged

    low

    Areas of Evasion(1)

    • Specific export margin differentials compared to domestic margins

    Q&A highlights

    3

    “PBT had three impacts because there's a lot of audience, I'm sure everybody has the same question, but we explained earlier we had one time cost impact of 34 million on material of transitional machines. That was 1/2 is when you're export market is strong, your margins are also higher. So, there is a mix which has impacted in the near term because China was down due to COVID.”

    Analyst questioned the significant PBT hit despite pricing power, leading management to explain the combined impact of one-time costs, export mix, and China slowdown.

    asked by Sanjay Kumar Chandak

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q3 FY23 Operational Headwinds and One-Time Costs

    Kennametal India experienced significant operational headwinds in Q3 FY23, primarily due to the slowdown in China. Exports of CNC machines, which constitute approximately 5% of the company's top line, were impacted by 75-80% for the quarter. Additionally, the company incurred a one-time📎 expense of ₹3.4 crores (₹34 million) related to the movement and reinstallation of approximately 140 machines within its Bangalore campus, associated with the new master insert plant. Employee costs also saw a sequential increase of ₹3.4 crores in the quarter, attributed to the annual merit cycle effective October 1st.

    02

    Capacity Expansion and Modernization Initiatives

    The company has completed a significant expansion of its master insert plant, which involved new civil infrastructure and the modernization of old processes. The physical infrastructure is now capable of supporting double the current capacity, with machinery additions planned modularly as demand grows. This modernization aims to improve product quality consistency and enable the manufacturing of new-age products, reinforcing the company's long-term growth strategy in India.

    03

    Raw Material and Margin Management

    Raw material prices, particularly for tungsten and cobalt, have strengthened, impacting the cost structure. While the company has generally been able to pass on price increases due to its strong market position as a technology player, the PBT was affected by a mix of factors including raw material costs, the export market mix, and the one-time📎 machinery movement expense. Management's endeavor is to improve upon the FY22 EBITDA margin, which was implied to be around 18%, by focusing on productivity improvements and operational excellence to offset internal inflation and wage increases.

    04

    Market Strategy and New Product Contribution

    Kennametal India estimates its market share to be around 25-26% in the hard metal industry, though management believes the real market size is larger. The company's strategy for market share gain is centered on delivering productivity and cost-per-component reduction to customers, rather than discounting. New products launched in the last five years consistently contribute between 20% and 25% of the company's revenue, highlighting its focus on innovation and product portfolio expansion.

    05

    Export Markets and Emerging Growth Segments

    Exports currently account for 18% of Kennametal India's overall revenue. Beyond China, the company is exploring growth opportunities in Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Indonesia) and selectively in Eastern European and Middle Eastern countries. Domestically, Kennametal is well-positioned in high-growth sectors such as defence, aerospace, Electric Vehicles (EVs), and energy (including wind), which are expected to outperform traditional segments. Aerospace, in particular, is anticipated to grow at 'multiples in terms of percentage,' albeit from a small base.

    06

    Global R&D Integration and Supply Chain Resilience

    Kennametal India benefits from a globally integrated R&D structure, with fundamental research conducted at the parent level and new products launched simultaneously worldwide. Technology transfer occurs for local manufacturing when a sizable market exists. To mitigate global supply chain disruptions, the company increased its safe inventory levels during the COVID period and expects to normalize these levels back to pre-COVID status within approximately six months, ensuring consistent supply to customers.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.