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    MFC
    Earnings call· Sep 2025(Q3 FY25)

    MANULIFE FINANCIAL CORP MFC

    Nov 13, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Manulife Q3 FY25 — Record Core Earnings and Refreshed Strategy

    Manulife delivered strong Q3 FY25 results, marked by record core earnings and robust insurance new business growth, while unveiling a refreshed strategy focused on balanced growth across Asia, Global WAM, Canada, and the U.S. The company aims to leverage AI and strategic partnerships, including a new India JV, to drive sustainable long-term growth and achieve its 2027 financial targets, despite facing net outflows in Global WAM and elevated U.S. claims.

    Highlights

    5
    • Core EPS grew 16% from the prior year, reflecting strong double-digit growth in core earnings and share buybacks.

    • Record core earnings contributed to a core ROE of 18.1%, expanding 1.5 percentage points year-on-year.

    • The LICAT ratio remained strong at 138%, providing a $26 billion buffer above the supervisory target ratio.

    • Adjusted book value per share was up 12% from the prior year quarter to $38.22.

    • Total new business CSM increased over 20% year-over-year for the fifth consecutive quarter, highlighting future earnings potential.

    Concerns

    3
    • Global WAM experienced net outflows of $6.2 billion, primarily from North American Retail and U.S. retirement channels.

    • The ALDA portfolio was impacted by a $289 million charge from lower-than-expected returns on private equity, commercial real estate, and timber assets.

    • U.S. insurance claims experience was unfavorable compared to a favorable prior year, with claims severity remaining somewhat elevated.

    Guidance & targets

    10
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Core ROE
    18% plus
    high materiality
    High
    Remittances
    approximately $6 billion
    high materiality
    High
    ECL charge
    $30 million to $50 million
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Core earnings impact from LTC basis change
    modest positive impact
    low materiality
    High
    GWAM flows from infrastructure fund
    positive contributor to flows
    medium materiality
    High
    eMPF impact on Retirement business core earnings
    reflect an impact
    medium materiality
    High
    eMPF fee changes impact
    USD 25 million a quarter
    medium materiality
    High
    CSM amortization increase
    approximately $30 million per quarter
    medium materiality
    High
    India JV capital injection
    USD 400 million
    high materiality
    High
    Corporate segment result
    $300 million to $400 million
    low materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Asia
    Generated solid growth across all new business metrics despite a very strong prior year comparable, led by strong growth in Asia Other. Hong Kong sales declined year-on-year but generated sequential growth of 4%. Improved product mix drove NBV margin expansion. Benefited from continued business growth momentum, favorable basis change impact, improved insurance experience, and ECL provision release.
    APE sales: +5% YoYNew business CSM: +18% YoYNew business value: +7% YoYNBV margin: 39% (+2.5 percentage points YoY)Core earnings: +29% YoY
    Global WAM
    Delivered record-level core earnings, supported by higher average AUMA and performance fees, as well as continued expense discipline. Net flows were challenged, resulting in outflows from North American Retail ($3.9B) and U.S. retirement ($1.6B), and institutional business ($0.7B). Delivered positive operating leverage and expanded core EBITDA margin.
    Core earnings: +9% YoYPre-tax core earnings: +19% YoYNet outflows: $6.2BCore EBITDA margin: 30.9% (+310 bps YoY, +80 bps sequentially)
    Canada
    Delivered solid results with APE sales growth reflecting continued double-digit growth in individual insurance, primarily due to higher par sales. Individual insurance was the key contributor to new business CSM growth as group insurance does not generate CSM. Core earnings growth driven by higher investment spreads, group insurance growth, and favorable individual insurance experience, partially offset by less favorable group insurance experience.
    APE sales: +9% YoYNew business CSM: +15% YoYCore earnings: +4% YoY
    U.S.
    Delivered strong APE sales growth fueled by higher broad-based demand, leading to more than doubling of new business CSM and significant increase in new business value. Core earnings decreased primarily due to unfavorable life insurance claims experience and lower expected investment earnings, partially offset by ECL provision release and favorable lapse experience. Fundamentals remain strong, with sequential improvement in core earnings.
    APE sales: +51% YoYNew business CSM: >+100% YoYNew business value: +53% YoYCore earnings: -20% YoY

    Operational metrics

    16
    Core EPS growth
    16%YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Reflecting strong double-digit growth in core earnings as well as the impact of share buybacks.

    Core EPS growth (ex-ECL)
    11%YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Even after adjusting for ECL, we saw strong growth of 11%.

    Net income
    $1.8B
    Q3 FY25

    Reflects neutral market experience where a $291 million gain from higher-than-expected public equity returns was offset by a charge of $289 million in our ALDA portfolio from lower-than-expected returns.

    ALDA portfolio impact
    -$289M
    Q3 FY25

    Primarily impacted by lower-than-expected returns on private equity and commercial real estate investments as well as our timber assets, reflecting a recent decline in commodity prices.

    Basis change (pre-tax fulfill and cash flows)
    -$605M
    Q3 FY25

    Net favorable impact from annual actuarial review, comprising a $1.1 billion increase in CSM partially offset by a modest decrease in net income of $216 million post tax as well as a small impact to OCI.

    Basis change (net income impact)
    -$216M
    Q3 FY25

    Modest decrease in net income post tax from annual actuarial review.

    Basis change (CSM increase)
    +$1.1B
    Q3 FY25

    Increase in CSM from annual actuarial review.

    Core earnings contribution from high-potential businesses
    76%
    YTD FY25

    Exceeding our 2025 target of 75%.

    Core earnings impact from US reinsurance transaction
    -$12M
    Q3 FY25

    Across multiple lines of the DOE.

    Withholding tax accrual adjustment
    Q3 FY25

    Mainly driven by an adjustment to our year-to-date withholding tax accrual, reflecting the use of our internal funding for the Comvest acquisition.

    Expected Credit Loss (ECL) provision
    -$44Mrelease vs. increase in prior year
    Q3 FY25

    Mainly due to a release in the expected credit loss or ECL provision driven by updates to our parameters and models.

    Below investment-grade private credit portfolio
    $4B
    Q3 FY25

    Largely focused on middle market lending to private equity-sponsored companies. It is diverse by issuer, sector, and sponsor, and managed in-house.

    Corporate segment expected result
    $300M-$400M
    per quarter

    Expected result for the corporate segment, reflecting further investments in central products.

    Agent count strategy
    Q3 FY25

    Focus is on building a high-quality and professional agency, not solely driven by agent count. Manulife was third globally in terms of MDRT qualifiers in '24, with a 20% growth run rate for '25.

    APE per active agent growth
    growing significantly
    Q3 FY25

    Reflects the strategy of building a high-quality and professional agency.

    NBV per agent growth
    growing materially
    Q3 FY25

    Reflects the strategy of building a high-quality and professional agency.

    Industry KPIs

    5
    MetricValueDetails
    Capital returns$4BCAD
    ROE operating ROE18.1%%
    Book value per share$38.22CAD
    Life specific when present39%%
    Statutory regulatory capital138%%

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    MahindraAgreement to form a joint venture to enter the India insurance market.

    Mahindra is a leading conglomerate and existing asset management partner in India. Manulife brings global expertise in insurance, product development, and risk management. Mahindra provides substantial local knowledge, a strong brand, and distribution infrastructure. The move is driven by favorable regulatory and digital environments, economic growth, and increased wealth in India.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Global WAM net outflowsQ3 FY25

    $6.2 billion

    Mitigation: Focus on disciplined growth with proactive expense management, resulting in positive operating leverage and margin expansion. Expect third infrastructure fund to be a positive contributor to flows as money is deployed over the course of next year.

    ALDA portfolio underperformanceQ3 FY25

    $289 million charge

    Mitigation: Impacted by lower-than-expected returns on private equity, commercial real estate, and timber assets, reflecting a recent decline in commodity prices. No specific mitigation strategy stated beyond acknowledging the market conditions.

    Unfavorable U.S. life insurance claims experienceQ3 FY25

    Core earnings decreased 20% YoY in U.S. segment.

    Mitigation: Fundamentals of the U.S. business remain strong, with sequential improvement in core earnings and continued strong new business metrics. Overall LTC insurance experience was modestly positive, including favorable incidents reported in the CSM.

    Elevated medical cost inflation impacting LTC utilizationOngoing

    Higher utilization of benefits given the higher cost of care, reflected in actuarial review.

    Mitigation: Reflected in updated actuarial assumptions, with elevated inflation expected to persist longer before returning to a higher-than-general inflation long-term view. Partially offset by favorable re-rate experience and assumed future premium rate increases.

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    India JV regulatory approval and operational launch

    12-18 months from Q3 FY25
    CurrentAgreement reached, subject to regulatory approvals.
    TargetRegulatory approval and operations commencing.

    Why it matters

    Marks entry into a significant growth market, crucial for Manulife's long-term strategy and diversification.

    I expect it would take in the order of 12 to 18 months to get this operation off the ground and up and running, including the regulatory approval process that you referenced, and I look forward to providing updates along the way.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    What products will the India JV offer, what does Manulife bring, and what is the regulatory approval timeline?

    Manulife brings global insurance expertise, Mahindra brings local knowledge and distribution. Products are TBD. Regulatory approval and operational launch are expected to take 12-18 months.

    I expect it would take in the order of 12 to 18 months to get this operation off the ground and up and running, including the regulatory approval process that you referenced, and I look forward to providing updates along the way.

    asked by John Aiken · answered by Philip Witherington

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Refreshed Enterprise Strategy

    Manulife unveiled a refreshed enterprise strategy, building on its strengths with a growth focus and an ambition to be the #1 choice for customers. Key elements include maintaining a diversified portfolio, capturing growth opportunities in Asia and Global WAM, enhancing leadership in Canada, and maintaining a scaled presence in the U.S. The strategy also emphasizes leveraging early leadership in AI to become an AI-powered organization and utilizing product, digital innovation, and partnerships to become a trusted partner for customer well-being.

    02

    India Market Entry

    The company announced an agreement with Mahindra, a leading Indian conglomerate and existing asset management partner, to form a joint venture to enter the India insurance market, subject to regulatory approvals. This strategic move is driven by favorable regulatory and digital environments, consistent economic growth, and increased wealth in India. Manulife will contribute global insurance expertise, including product development and risk management, while Mahindra offers substantial local knowledge, a strong brand, and distribution infrastructure. The operational launch is expected within 12-18 months, with a projected capital cost of USD 400 million over the next decade.

    03

    Inforce Management Evolution

    Marc Costantini, Global Head of Inforce Management, is departing after over 25 years with Manulife. His role, which included the completion of several monumental reinsurance transactions, has been embedded as a core capability within the organization. Naveed Irshad, President and CEO of Manulife Canada, has taken on expanded responsibility for Inforce Management and reinsurance globally, while continuing to lead the Canada segment.

    04

    Actuarial Review & LTC Business

    Manulife completed its annual basis change, including a comprehensive triennial review of its U.S. long-term care (LTC) business. This resulted in a net favorable impact of a $605 million decrease in overall pre-tax fulfill and cash flows, comprising a $1.1 billion increase in CSM, partially offset by a modest decrease in net income of $216 million post-tax. The LTC study was slightly favorable due to favorable re-rate experience, assumed future premium rate increases, and higher terminations, partially offset by higher utilization of benefits driven by elevated medical cost inflation, which is expected to persist longer.

    05

    Global WAM Net Outflows

    Global WAM experienced net outflows of $6.2 billion in the quarter, following six consecutive quarters of positive net flows. This was primarily due to $3.9 billion in outflows from North American Retail intermediary and wealth channels, and $1.6 billion from the U.S. retirement business, where elevated markets led to higher participant withdrawals. Institutional business also saw modest net outflows of $0.7 billion. Despite these challenges, GWAM delivered positive operating leverage and expanded its core EBITDA margin by 310 basis points year-on-year to 30.9%.

    06

    U.S. Business Strategy Refinement

    The U.S. business strategy for John Hancock focuses on scaling its existing profitable behavioral insurance products, which promote health and wellness, to a broader range of customer segments including affluent individuals and emerging high net worth individuals, beyond its current niche in high net worth. The company is also exploring opportunities in adjacent products that align with its risk appetite, but explicitly stated no intention to return to higher market risk products like variable annuities, which were part of its past broader business.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.