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    Adani Green

    ADANIGREENStrong
    Power·23 Oct 2024
    Management Summary

    AGEL delivered consistent 20% growth in H1 FY25 while making major strategic moves including 5 GW Maharashtra LOA, first Google data center C&I deal, and articulating battery storage ambitions. The company maintained its 6 GW FY25 target despite extended monsoon causing some delay. Battery prices have dropped 66% in 2 years, creating exciting coupling opportunities with solar.

    Highlights

    8
    • H1 FY25 revenue from power supply up 20% YoY to INR 4,836 crores

    • H1 EBITDA up 20% YoY to INR 4,518 crores; cash profit surged 27% to INR 2,640 crores

    • 2.9 GW greenfield additions over past year; operational capacity at 11.2 GW

    • H1 energy sales up 20% YoY to 14.1 billion units

    • Won 5 GW Maharashtra LOA for 25-year fixed tariff PPA

    • Signed first C&I deal with Google for 61 MW data center power supply

    • Merchant revenue of INR 1,070 crores in H1; solar INR 2.85/unit, wind INR 5.43/unit

    • Run rate EBITDA of INR 10,800 crores for 11.2 GW; expected INR 16,000+ crores post FY25 additions at 17 GW

    What Changed1

    vs Q3 FY25

    Tone shiftGood → Strong
    Key financials

    Metrics

    8

    Periods

    2

    Headline

    4
    • Operational Capacity
      11.2 GW
    • Run Rate EBITDA (Current)
      ₹10,800 Cr
    • Expected Run Rate EBITDA (Post 6 GW)
      ₹16,000 Cr
    • H1 Merchant Revenue
      ₹1,070 Cr

    H1

    4
    • Revenue from Power Supply
      ₹4,836 Cr
      YoY+20%
    • EBITDA from Power Supply
      ₹4,518 Cr
      YoY+20%
    • Cash Profit
      ₹2,640 Cr
      YoY+27%
    • Energy Sales
      $14.1B
      YoY+20%

    Segment breakdown

    Merchant Solar (H1 avg)
    2.85 Realization
    Merchant Wind (H1 avg)
    5.43 Realization
    FY25 Capacity Plan
    5 GW Solar1 GW Wind
    Merchant/Infirm Capacity
    2.75 GW Operating Merchant
    NCI (Total JV) EBITDA
    ₹2,500 Cr JV EBITDA₹1,250 Cr NCI Share (50%)
    List

    Guidance & targets

    4
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Capacity Addition
    FY25 Target
    6 GW
    High
    Capacity
    Minimum Annual Run Rate
    6 GW per year going forward
    Medium
    Financial
    Post-FY25 Run Rate EBITDA
    INR 16,000+ crores on 17 GW
    High
    Capacity Split
    FY25 Wind Merchant
    80% of wind on merchant
    High

    Risks & concerns

    7
    RiskSeverity

    Extended monsoon delaying Khavda construction by about a month

    Within 10% standard S-curve variation; one-third of incremental capacity expected this quarter, remainder by year-endManagement downplayed

    medium

    High reliance on merchant revenue with volatile pricing

    2.5-3 GW on merchant/infirm; solar dropped from INR 3.11 in Q1 to INR 2.59 in Q2 due to excessive hydro generation; wind strong at INR 5+/unitAnalyst acknowledged

    medium

    DISCOM reluctance to sign PPAs creating pipeline uncertainty

    FDRE and hybrid tenders seeing slow PPA conversions; RPO obligations expected to drive DISCOM signingBoth acknowledged

    medium

    Transmission connectivity delays across India

    Visible delays in some areas but AGEL derisked for next 2-3 years with clear line-of-sight on evacuation for 50 GW targetBoth acknowledged

    medium

    Areas of Evasion(3)

    • Google deal pricing
    • PSP storage cost per unit
    • Exact land bank details

    Q&A highlights

    3

    “pricing is commercially sensitive, but it is significantly higher than what you would get in normal long-term discom PPAs”

    First C&I data center deal signals premium pricing channel; AGEL uniquely positioned with geographic diversification for RTC solutions

    asked by Sabri Hazarika

    1 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strong H1 Financial Performance

    AGEL delivered 20% growth across revenue and EBITDA in H1 FY25. Revenue from power supply reached INR 4,836 crores and EBITDA INR 4,518 crores. Cash profit growth was even stronger at 27% YoY to INR 2,640 crores. Run rate EBITDA for 11.2 GW stands at INR 10,800 crores.

    02

    6 GW FY25 Target With Back-Loaded Execution

    Management committed to 6 GW for FY25 (5 GW solar, 1 GW wind) with most additions in H2 after extended monsoon. One-third expected in Q3 and remainder in Q4. Post-addition, run rate EBITDA projected at INR 16,000+ crores on 17 GW. Khavda workforce expanded to 9,000+.

    03

    Khavda Wind Performance and Solar CUF

    First 250 MW wind capacity commissioned with India's largest 5.2 MW WTGs showing CUF north of 44% in stabilization. Full-year wind CUF expected above 35%. Solar CUF at Khavda expected above 32% full-year, vs 24% portfolio average - set to lift overall portfolio CUF as Khavda proportion grows.

    04

    Maharashtra LOA and Google C&I Deal

    Won 5 GW Maharashtra solar LOA with 25-year fixed tariff PPA across 4-year execution timeline. Signed first C&I deal with Google for 61 MW data center power at significantly higher than DISCOM PPA rates. Data center demand identified as major growth opportunity.

    05

    Battery Storage and PSP Strategy

    Battery prices dropped 66% in 2 years. Management sees BESS as complementary to PSP, not replacement. PSP still cheaper on LCOE basis, provides 100-year life, voltage control, and 6-7 hour discharge. AGEL has access to 20+ GW PSP sites. Both solutions will be deployed to capture peak-offpeak arbitrage.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.