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    Adani Green

    ADANIGREENGood
    Power·24 Jan 2025
    Management Summary

    AGEL delivered solid 9M FY25 results while navigating DOJ indictment concerns and extended monsoon challenges at Khavda. CEO Amit Singh reaffirmed the 5 GW FY25 target with massive Q4 catch-up of 4.3 GW. The company made a strategic pivot to include BESS alongside solar, wind, and PSP, citing significant battery cost declines. Financing remains robust with domestic lenders showing strong interest despite governance concerns.

    Highlights

    8

    • 9M FY25 energy sales up 23% YoY to 20 billion units

    • 9M revenue from power supply grew 18% YoY to INR 6,829 crores

    • 9M EBITDA up 18% YoY to INR 6,366 crores; cash profit surged 23% to INR 3,630 crores

    • 3.1 GW greenfield additions on YoY basis, 37% growth, total operational 11.6 GW

    • Updated strategy to include large-scale BESS deployment; BESS capex at INR 1.3-1.4 crores per MWh

    • FY25 capacity target reaffirmed at ~5 GW with 4.3 GW expected in Q4 alone

    • Net debt at INR 57,000 crores; operational debt INR 42,000-45,000 crores

    • Run rate EBITDA of INR 10,000 crores for current 11.6 GW; expected INR 15,000+ crores post 5 GW addition

    Concerns

    2

    • DOJ indictment of executives and potential impact on international funding

    • Massive Q4 catch-up of 4.3 GW needed to meet 5 GW FY25 target

    Key financials

    Metrics

    9

    Periods

    2

    Headline

    6
    • Operational Capacity
      11.6 GW
      YoY+37%
    • Run Rate EBITDA (Current)
      ₹10,000 Cr
    • Expected Run Rate EBITDA (Post Addition)
      ₹15,000 Cr
    • Net Debt
      ₹57,000 Cr
    • Operational Debt
      ₹43,500 Cr

    9M

    3
    • Revenue from Power Supply
      ₹6,829 Cr
      YoY+18%
    • EBITDA from Power Supply
      ₹6,366 Cr
      YoY+18%
    • Cash Profit
      ₹3,630 Cr
      YoY+23%

    Segment breakdown

    FY25 New Capacity Split
    85% Solar15% Wind
    FY25 PPA vs Merchant (Solar)
    75% PPA25% Merchant
    BESS Economics
    ₹1.35 Cr Capex9,000 cycles Cycles16 years Life
    List

    Guidance & targets

    4
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Capacity Addition
    FY25 Target
    ~5 GW (4.3 GW in Q4)
    		High
    Capacity
    FY26 Growth
    6-8 GW range
    		Medium
    Storage
    PSP Completion
    5.5 GW by end of decade
    		Medium
    Revenue Mix
    PPA vs Merchant Split
    85% long-term PPA, 15% C&I/merchant
    		Medium

    Risks & concerns

    5
    RiskSeverity

    DOJ indictment of executives and potential impact on international funding

    Management states AGEL is not party to litigation; domestic lenders unaffected; TotalEnergies relationship intact; no new equity needed from TotalEnergies — Analyst downplayed

    high

    Massive Q4 catch-up of 4.3 GW needed to meet 5 GW FY25 target

    Extended monsoon shifted construction S-curve right; some capacity may slip to early Q1 FY26 (4-5 weeks after year-end) — Both acknowledged

    high

    Transmission connectivity delays across renewable sector

    Very visible delays in some areas; working with CTU, PGCIL; government monitoring closely; batteries as de-risking strategy — Both acknowledged

    medium

    Aggressive and irrational BESS tender pricing by non-serious players

    Management staying out of vanilla tenders; focusing on integrated solutions with above-market returns — Both acknowledged

    medium

    Areas of Evasion(1)

    • Exact FY26 capacity guidance deferred to Q4

    Q&A highlights

    3

    “capex of INR 1.3 to INR 1.4 crores per megawatt hour and cycles remain between 8,000 to 10,000 cycles... battery to last for 16 plus years”

    First time management provided detailed BESS economics, signaling serious commitment to battery storage alongside PSP

    asked by Bharani

    1 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q4 Catch-up and FY25 Capacity Target

    AGEL is targeting 5 GW total for FY25, requiring 4.3 GW in Q4 alone after extended monsoon delayed Khavda construction. Management acknowledged some capacity may slip 4-5 weeks into early Q1 FY26 but reaffirmed the target. Workforce at Khavda has been expanded to 12,000+ people for accelerated execution.

    02

    BESS Strategy Unveiled

    Management formally announced BESS as a strategic focus area alongside solar, wind, and PSP. Battery capex benchmarked at INR 1.3-1.4 crores/MWh with 8,000-10,000 cycles, 16+ year life, and 85% round-trip efficiency. Company will focus on integrated solutions (solar+BESS, RTC power) rather than vanilla standalone tenders. LFP chemistry preferred for utility scale.

    03

    PSP Portfolio and Timeline

    Three PSP projects in flight targeting 5.5 GW by end of decade. Chitravathi (500 MW) expected by FY27. Tarali (1,500 MW) and Gandikota (1,800 MW) expected by FY28. These complement BESS for grid integration and voltage regulation.

    04

    Financing Resilience Post-DOJ

    Despite DOJ indictment of individuals, AGEL reaffirmed strong domestic lender interest with no changes in terms or costs. Net debt stands at INR 57,000 crores with operational debt of INR 42-45K crores. The $1.06 billion construction facility refinancing is in advanced stage with domestic lenders. Normalized interest cost is 9-9.4%.

    05

    Revenue Mix and Market Strategy

    Targeting 85% long-term PPAs and 15% C&I/merchant. FY25 new solar capacity is 75% PPA and 25% merchant; all wind is merchant. Strategy emphasizes integrated power solutions for data centers and C&I customers. Google partnership announced earlier. RPO obligations expected to drive DISCOM PPA signing.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.