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    Adani Green

    ADANIGREENGood
    Power·29 Apr 2025
    Management Summary

    FY25 was a strong but slightly below-target year for AGEL with 3.3 GW additions against a 5 GW target, primarily due to unprecedented monsoon impact at Khavda. However, the company demonstrated recovery with 2.6 GW in Q4 alone. New CEO Ashish Khanna reiterated the 5 GW FY26 target and 50 GW by 2030 vision. Merchant revenue contributed meaningfully with solar at INR 3.1-3.2/unit and wind at INR 5.5/unit.

    Highlights

    8
    • FY25 capacity additions of 3.3 GW - highest ever by any Indian renewable company, but short of 5 GW target

    • Operational capacity at 14.2 GW; added 2.6 GW in Q4 alone after monsoon recovery

    • FY25 energy sales up 28% YoY to 28 billion units

    • FY25 revenue from power supply grew 23% YoY to INR 9,495 crores

    • FY25 EBITDA up 22% to INR 8,818 crores, surpassing $1 billion milestone

    • Khavda operational capacity at 4+ GW with solar CUF of 32%+ in Q4

    • Won 9.6 GW of new bids in FY25, 6.25 GW already signed as PPAs

    • Refinanced $1.06 billion construction facility with AA+ rated 19-year term

    Concerns

    1
    • Missed FY25 capacity target (3.3 GW vs 5 GW) due to Khavda monsoon impact

    Key financials

    Metrics

    8

    Periods

    2

    Headline

    2
    • Operational Capacity
      14.2 GW
    • Gross Block
      ₹89,000 Cr

    FY25

    6
    • Revenue from Power Supply
      ₹9,495 Cr
      YoY+23%
    • EBITDA
      ₹8,818 Cr
      YoY+22%
    • Energy Sales
      $28B
      YoY+28.0%
    • Capacity Additions
      3.3 GW
    • Merchant Sales
      $2.2B

    Segment breakdown

    RealizationWith RECs
    Merchant Solar3.153.65
    Merchant Wind5.56
    Portfolio Split
    Heatmap· 2 shared metrics

    Guidance & targets

    4
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Capacity Addition
    FY26 Target
    5 GW
    High
    Capacity
    Khavda by 2029
    30 GW
    High
    Capacity
    Maharashtra PPA Execution
    2 GW in 2 years, then 1 GW every 6 months
    High
    Evacuation
    Khavda Transmission Capacity
    4 GW by June, 7 GW by December 2025
    Medium

    Risks & concerns

    6
    RiskSeverity

    Missed FY25 capacity target (3.3 GW vs 5 GW) due to Khavda monsoon impact

    Full slippage was at Khavda; Rajasthan and Kadapa were on track. Management claims learnings incorporated for FY26Both acknowledged

    high

    Grid evacuation constraints at Khavda

    Additional 4 GW by June 2025 and 7 GW by December 2025 expected; Ministry of Power monitoring closelyBoth acknowledged

    medium

    ISTS waiver expiry from June 2025

    Management not making assumptions about extension; strategy aligned with current policy frameworkAnalyst acknowledged

    medium

    Declining merchant solar prices with increasing oversupply

    Management shifting merchant mix towards wind and using solar as PSP input; says merchant prices cyclical and were above INR 4 a year agoAnalyst downplayed

    medium

    Areas of Evasion(2)

    • BESS strategy
    • Quarterly merchant sales breakdown

    Q&A highlights

    3

    “the environment has not helped us... we are confident about adding 150% of our last year capacity addition”

    3.3 GW vs 5 GW target is a significant miss; management attributes to monsoon at Khavda and claims learnings will prevent recurrence

    asked by Ketan Jain

    1 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    FY25 Capacity Miss But Strong Q4 Recovery

    AGEL added 3.3 GW in FY25, 34% below the 5 GW target, with all slippage at Khavda due to unprecedented🌐 monsoon and soil conditions. However, Q4 saw a strong 2.6 GW recovery demonstrating execution capability. The company accounted for 16% of India's utility solar and 14% of wind installations in FY25.

    02

    New CEO and FY26 Strategy

    Ashish Khanna took over as CEO from April 1, 2025, bringing 36 years of industry experience including leading Tata Power Renewable Energy. He reiterated the 5 GW FY26 target (150% of FY25 actual) and 50 GW by 2030 vision. Capital management framework fully funds growth to 50 GW with 95% of FY26 capacity already sanctioned for debt.

    03

    Portfolio and PPA Pipeline

    Total contracted/pipeline capacity is 33 GW with ~30 GW under PPA and 3 GW merchant. In FY25, 9.6 GW of new bids were won, of which 6.25 GW already signed as PPAs. The company targets 75% PPA and 25% merchant/C&I/CFD mix at 50 GW. Merchant exposure is 14% of current 14.2 GW operational capacity.

    04

    Khavda Progress and Evacuation

    Khavda has 4+ GW operational with solar CUF of 32%+ in Q4 using N-type bifacial modules and single-axis trackers. Evacuation capacity expected to increase by 4 GW by June and 7 GW by December 2025. Ministry of Power is actively monitoring transmission build-out.

    05

    Financial Milestones and Refinancing

    FY25 EBITDA crossed $1 billion at INR 8,818 crores with 22% growth. Revenue grew 23% to INR 9,495 crores. Successfully refinanced $1.06 billion construction facility with AA+ rated 19-year term. All operations are now water positive, a year ahead of target.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.