Adani Green — Q4 FY25 earnings call

Call held 29 Apr 2025

Management summary

FY25 was a strong but slightly below-target year for AGEL with 3.3 GW additions against a 5 GW target, primarily due to unprecedented monsoon impact at Khavda. However, the company demonstrated recovery with 2.6 GW in Q4 alone. New CEO Ashish Khanna reiterated the 5 GW FY26 target and 50 GW by 2030 vision. Merchant revenue contributed meaningfully with solar at INR 3.1-3.2/unit and wind at INR 5.5/unit.

Highlights

  • FY25 capacity additions of 3.3 GW - highest ever by any Indian renewable company, but short of 5 GW target

  • Operational capacity at 14.2 GW; added 2.6 GW in Q4 alone after monsoon recovery

  • FY25 energy sales up 28% YoY to 28 billion units

  • FY25 revenue from power supply grew 23% YoY to INR 9,495 crores

  • FY25 EBITDA up 22% to INR 8,818 crores, surpassing $1 billion milestone

  • Khavda operational capacity at 4+ GW with solar CUF of 32%+ in Q4

  • Won 9.6 GW of new bids in FY25, 6.25 GW already signed as PPAs

  • Refinanced $1.06 billion construction facility with AA+ rated 19-year term

Concerns

  • Missed FY25 capacity target (3.3 GW vs 5 GW) due to Khavda monsoon impact

Key financials

2 periods

Headline

  • Operational Capacity
    14.2 GW
  • Gross Block
    ₹89,000 Cr

FY25

  • Revenue from Power Supply
    ₹9,495 Cr
    YoY +23%
  • EBITDA
    ₹8,818 Cr
    YoY +22%
  • Energy Sales
    28 billion units
    YoY +28%
  • Capacity Additions
    3.3 GW
  • Merchant Sales
    2.2 billion units
  • Infirm Power Sales (under PPA)
    5.3 billion units

What they filed

Q1 FY27: revenue up 16.6%, net profit up 19.3% against the same quarter last year.

₹ Cr · quarterly
Line itemQ2 FY25Q3 FY25Q4 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27
Revenue3,005 2,340 3,073 3,800 3,008 +0%2,618 +12%3,502 +14%4,431 +17%
EBITDA2,217 1,880 2,402 3,042 2,603 +17%2,241 +19%2,882 +20%3,985 +31%
Net profit515 474 383 824 644 +25%5 −99%514 +34%983 +19%
How to read this

₹ crore, as filed. The percentage beside a figure is the change against the same quarter a year earlier — never the quarter before, which would make every seasonal business look like it collapses and booms each year.

Segment breakdown

SegmentRealizationWith RECs
Merchant Solar₹3.15/unit₹3.65/unit
Merchant Wind₹5.5/unit₹6/unit
Portfolio Split——

Guidance & targets

Capacity Addition

  • FY26 Target Capacity Addition · FY26 · High confidence 5 GW
    We are targeting to add 5 gigawatts in this financial year too

    — Ashish Khanna

Capacity

  • Khavda by 2029 Capacity · FY29 · High confidence 30 GW
    well on track to complete 30 gigawatt by 2029

    — Ashish Khanna

  • Maharashtra PPA Execution Capacity · FY26-FY28 · High confidence 2 GW in 2 years, then 1 GW every 6 months
    It starts from two years and then every six months we have additional 1 gigawatt

    — Raj Kumar Jain

Evacuation

  • Khavda Transmission Capacity Evacuation · CY2025 · Medium confidence 4 GW by June, 7 GW by December 2025
    We are expecting another 4 gigawatts to be added by June and 7 by the end of this year

    — Ashish Khanna

Risks & concerns

  • Missed FY25 capacity target (3.3 GW vs 5 GW) due to Khavda monsoon impact

    high

    Full slippage was at Khavda; Rajasthan and Kadapa were on track. Management claims learnings incorporated for FY26

    Both acknowledged

  • Grid evacuation constraints at Khavda

    medium

    Additional 4 GW by June 2025 and 7 GW by December 2025 expected; Ministry of Power monitoring closely

    Both acknowledged

  • ISTS waiver expiry from June 2025

    medium

    Management not making assumptions about extension; strategy aligned with current policy framework

    Analyst acknowledged

  • Declining merchant solar prices with increasing oversupply

    medium

    Management shifting merchant mix towards wind and using solar as PSP input; says merchant prices cyclical and were above INR 4 a year ago

    Analyst downplayed

Areas of evasion (2)

  • BESS strategy
  • Quarterly merchant sales breakdown

Q&A highlights

2 direct
FY25 Target Miss and Recovery Plan Direct
the environment has not helped us... we are confident about adding 150% of our last year capacity addition

3.3 GW vs 5 GW target is a significant miss; management attributes to monsoon at Khavda and claims learnings will prevent recurrence

Asked by Ketan Jain

Merchant vs PPA Strategy Direct
5.3 billion units sold on merchant basis which were under PPA... projects have come earlier than scheduled and DISCOM gave NOC to sell on merchant

Reveals that most merchant sales are actually PPA-linked pre-COD power, not pure merchant exposure - lower risk than it appears

Asked by Nikhil Nagania

BESS and Battery Storage Plans Partial
lots of things which are happening within the company and I think in the times to come you will be one of the first ones to hear from us

Signals imminent BESS strategy announcement which could be transformative for the company's storage positioning

Asked by Nikhil Nagania

1 min read 5 chapters

Detailed narrative

FY25 Capacity Miss But Strong Q4 Recovery

AGEL added 3.3 GW in FY25, 34% below the 5 GW target, with all slippage at Khavda due to unprecedented monsoon and soil conditions. However, Q4 saw a strong 2.6 GW recovery demonstrating execution capability. The company accounted for 16% of India's utility solar and 14% of wind installations in FY25.

New CEO and FY26 Strategy

Ashish Khanna took over as CEO from April 1, 2025, bringing 36 years of industry experience including leading Tata Power Renewable Energy. He reiterated the 5 GW FY26 target (150% of FY25 actual) and 50 GW by 2030 vision. Capital management framework fully funds growth to 50 GW with 95% of FY26 capacity already sanctioned for debt.

Portfolio and PPA Pipeline

Total contracted/pipeline capacity is 33 GW with ~30 GW under PPA and 3 GW merchant. In FY25, 9.6 GW of new bids were won, of which 6.25 GW already signed as PPAs. The company targets 75% PPA and 25% merchant/C&I/CFD mix at 50 GW. Merchant exposure is 14% of current 14.2 GW operational capacity.

Khavda Progress and Evacuation

Khavda has 4+ GW operational with solar CUF of 32%+ in Q4 using N-type bifacial modules and single-axis trackers. Evacuation capacity expected to increase by 4 GW by June and 7 GW by December 2025. Ministry of Power is actively monitoring transmission build-out.

Financial Milestones and Refinancing

FY25 EBITDA crossed $1 billion at INR 8,818 crores with 22% growth. Revenue grew 23% to INR 9,495 crores. Successfully refinanced $1.06 billion construction facility with AA+ rated 19-year term. All operations are now water positive, a year ahead of target.

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