Adani Green — Q1 FY26 earnings call

Call held 29 Jul 2025

Management summary

Adani Green delivered strong Q1 FY26 results with record capacity additions and 42% energy sales growth. The company is on track for 5 GW annual additions with 15.8 GW operational. Merchant solar prices were soft at INR 2.20/unit due to early monsoon, partially offset by strong wind merchant at INR 5.70/unit. Management teased upcoming BESS strategy at unprecedented scale while maintaining selectivity in tendering.

Highlights

  • Added 1.6 GW greenfield capacity in Q1, totalling 4.9 GW in past year - a record for India

  • Operational capacity up 45% YoY to 15.8 GW

  • Energy sales grew 42% YoY to 10.5 billion units

  • Revenue from power supply up 31% YoY to INR 3,312 crores

  • EBITDA grew 31% YoY to INR 3,108 crores with 92.8% margin

  • Cash profit surged 25% YoY to INR 1,744 crores

  • Khavda operational capacity at 5.6 GW

  • Gross debt at INR 78,000 crores with borrowing cost of 9.1-9.2%

Key financials

2 periods

Headline

  • Revenue from Power Supply
    ₹3,312 Cr
    YoY +31%
  • EBITDA
    ₹3,108 Cr
    YoY +31%
  • EBITDA Margin
    92.8%
  • Cash Profit
    ₹1,744 Cr
    YoY +25%
  • Operational Capacity
    15.8 GW
    YoY +45%
  • Energy Sales
    10.5 billion units
    YoY +42%
  • Run Rate EBITDA
    ₹13,600 Cr
  • Gross Block
    ₹89,000 Cr
  • Gross Debt
    ₹78,000 Cr
  • Borrowing Cost
    9.2%

Q1

  • Capex
    ₹6,500 Cr

What they filed

Q1 FY27: revenue up 16.6%, net profit up 19.3% against the same quarter last year.

₹ Cr · quarterly
Line itemQ2 FY25Q3 FY25Q4 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27
Revenue3,005 2,340 3,073 3,800 3,008 +0%2,618 +12%3,502 +14%4,431 +17%
EBITDA2,217 1,880 2,402 3,042 2,603 +17%2,241 +19%2,882 +20%3,985 +31%
Net profit515 474 383 824 644 +25%5 −99%514 +34%983 +19%
How to read this

₹ crore, as filed. The percentage beside a figure is the change against the same quarter a year earlier — never the quarter before, which would make every seasonal business look like it collapses and booms each year.

Segment breakdown

  • Merchant Solar
    ₹2.2/unit Realization
  • Merchant Wind
    ₹5.7/unit Realization
  • Total Portfolio
    31.5 GW PPA Capacity36.5 GW Total Locked-in
  • Adani-Total JV
    4.5 GW Total Portfolio4 GW Operational

Guidance & targets

Capacity Addition

  • FY26 Greenfield Addition Capacity Addition · FY26 · High confidence 5 GW
    on a 5 gigawatt target for the year, we have already done around one-third... we are very well on track

    — Ashish Khanna

Capacity

  • Total Capacity by 2030 Capacity · FY30 · High confidence 50 GW
    With a comprehensive capital management framework, we ensure that our growth is fully funded for our 50-gigawatt target by 2030

    — Ashish Khanna

Storage

  • PSP Capacity by FY31 Storage · FY31 · High confidence 5 GW
    the 5 gigawatt which we have announced... those are de-risked from all these considerations... There is no change in any of that

    — Raj Kumar Jain

Revenue Mix

  • Merchant/C&I/CFD Share Revenue Mix · FY30 · Medium confidence 25% of capacity by FY30
    25% of our capacities would be seeing some of these kinds of markets

    — Raj Kumar Jain

Risks & concerns

  • Grid evacuation delays at Khavda impacting capacity utilization

    medium

    Currently less than 5% EBITDA impact; management expects resolution within this fiscal year as transmission comes in chunks

    Both acknowledged

  • Declining merchant solar prices due to oversupply during monsoon

    medium

    Solar merchant dropped from INR 3.00 in Q4 to INR 2.20 in Q1; management says this is seasonal and merchant is add-on to PPA returns

    Analyst acknowledged

  • High gross debt of INR 78,000 crores with 9.1-9.2% borrowing cost

    medium

    Debt expected to rise further with ongoing capex; management looking at refinancing opportunities to reduce cost

    Analyst acknowledged

  • ISTS waiver phase-out beginning with 25% reduction from June 2025

    low

    Management says impact is minimal as taper is over 3 years; early-commissioned capacity has locked-in advantage

    Analyst downplayed

Areas of evasion (3)

  • BESS strategy details
  • Mechanics of pre-COD power sales on ISTS merchant
  • Forward merchant price guidance

Q&A highlights

2 direct
Merchant Revenue vs Energy Sales Growth Gap Direct
about 50% of it basically pure-play merchant and 50% is infirm revenue... merchant revenues are volatile. In Q1, it has been less because of the monsoon arriving early

Explains why 42% energy sales growth translated to only 31% revenue growth - key to understanding the revenue bridge as merchant transitions to PPA

Asked by Mahesh Patil

BESS Strategy Teaser Partial
at Adani, we do it at a speed and a scale, which is unprecedented. We should be able to share with you in some time

BESS is a major strategic gap in the current portfolio; management is deliberately holding back details, creating anticipation for a major announcement

Asked by Baiju Joshi

Data Center Renewable Demand Direct
there is a keen interest from some of these data centers... 25% of our capacities would be seeing some of these kinds of markets

Data center demand represents a new high-value off-take channel with 10-15 year contracts at premium pricing

Asked by Baiju Joshi

1 min read 5 chapters

Detailed narrative

Record Capacity Additions Continue

AGEL added 1.6 GW in Q1 FY26, bringing 12-month additions to 4.9 GW - a record for India. Operational capacity reached 15.8 GW with 45% YoY growth. Solar capex is INR 4.5 crores/MW and wind is INR 6.5 crores/MW, with Q1 capex booking of INR 6,500 crores. The company is on track for 5 GW annual target.

Merchant Revenue Dynamics

Merchant solar realization dropped to INR 2.20/unit from INR 3.00 in Q4 due to early monsoon and oversupply. Wind merchant was strong at INR 5.70/unit. About 50% of merchant revenue is pure-play merchant and 50% is infirm/pre-COD power from PPA capacity commissioned ahead of schedule. This explains the gap between 42% energy sales growth and 31% revenue growth.

Portfolio Structure and PPA Pipeline

Total locked-in capacity is 36.5 GW, of which 31.5 GW is under PPA. The Adani-Total JV has 4.5 GW total with 4 GW operational. Under execution pipeline is 16 GW plus 5 GW from recent tender wins. Management is selective in tendering, prioritizing returns over volume.

Data Center and C&I Opportunity

Management identified data center demand as a significant growth opportunity, targeting 25% of capacity for merchant/C&I/CFD markets by FY30. Contracts range from spot to 10-15 year agreements depending on buyer. This represents a premium pricing channel compared to government PPA tariffs.

Grid Evacuation and ISTS Transition

Khavda evacuation delays impact less than 5% of EBITDA. ISTS waiver has begun 25% taper from June 2025 over 3 years. Early-commissioned capacity benefits from locked-in waiver advantage. Wind generation expected to offset solar curtailment in Q2 as wind peaks during evening/morning hours.

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