Detailed Narrative
Record Capacity Additions Continue
AGEL added 1.6 GW in Q1 FY26, bringing 12-month additions to 4.9 GW - a record for India. Operational capacity reached 15.8 GW with 45% YoY growth. Solar capex is INR 4.5 crores/MW and wind is INR 6.5 crores/MW, with Q1 capex booking of INR 6,500 crores. The company is on track for 5 GW annual target.
Merchant Revenue Dynamics
Merchant solar realization dropped to INR 2.20/unit from INR 3.00 in Q4 due to early monsoon and oversupply. Wind merchant was strong at INR 5.70/unit. About 50% of merchant revenue is pure-play merchant and 50% is infirm/pre-COD power from PPA capacity commissioned ahead of schedule. This explains the gap between 42% energy sales growth and 31% revenue growth.
Portfolio Structure and PPA Pipeline
Total locked-in capacity is 36.5 GW, of which 31.5 GW is under PPA. The Adani-Total JV has 4.5 GW total with 4 GW operational. Under execution pipeline is 16 GW plus 5 GW from recent tender wins. Management is selective in tendering, prioritizing returns over volume.
Data Center and C&I Opportunity
Management identified data center demand as a significant growth opportunity, targeting 25% of capacity for merchant/C&I/CFD markets by FY30. Contracts range from spot to 10-15 year agreements depending on buyer. This represents a premium pricing channel compared to government PPA tariffs.
Grid Evacuation and ISTS Transition
Khavda evacuation delays impact less than 5% of EBITDA. ISTS waiver has begun 25% taper from June 2025 over 3 years. Early-commissioned capacity benefits from locked-in waiver advantage. Wind generation expected to offset solar curtailment in Q2 as wind peaks during evening/morning hours.