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    Dhampur Sugar

    DHAMPURSUG
    Fast Moving Consumer Goods·7 Feb 2025
    Management Summary

    Dhampur Sugar reported a return to profitability in Q3 FY25, with revenue growing 21.7% YoY to INR 587.1 crores. This was primarily driven by strong performance in the sugar and potable spirits segments. However, overall profitability metrics like EBITDA and PAT saw significant declines due to challenges in the ethanol segment, lower cane availability, and reduced recovery rates caused by red rot. The company is implementing a varietal shift plan to address cane issues and expects higher sugar production for India in FY26.

    Highlights

    5
    • Revenue from operations increased 21.7% YoY to INR 587.1 crores.

    • Potable spirits revenue surged 47.4% YoY to INR 199.6 crores, driven by new tetra pack machine commissioning.

    • Sugar business turned profitable with INR 1.2 crores profit in Q3 FY25, reversing a INR 6.6 crores loss in the prior year.

    • Company reported being 'back in black' after two quarters of losses.

    • Government's lifting of the ban on syrup for ethanol production and increase in C-heavy molasses ethanol price by INR 1.69 per liter.

    Concerns

    5
    • EBITDA declined 30.7% YoY to INR 48.3 crores in Q3 FY25.

    • PAT decreased 52.2% YoY to INR 15.2 crores in Q3 FY25.

    • Ethanol revenue sharply declined 44.7% YoY to INR 97.6 crores due to prior restrictions on syrup and B-heavy molasses use.

    • Lower cane availability and red rot continue to be significant headwinds for the sugar industry in UP.

    • Gross recovery rate was lower at 10.17% in Q3 FY25 compared to 11.01% last year.

    What Changed1

    vs Q4 FY25

    Guidance items8 → 9 (+1)

    Key financials

    Single quarter

    04 metrics
    1. 01Revenue from Operations₹587.1 Cr+21.7%YoY
    2. 02EBITDA₹48.3 Cr-30.7%YoY
    3. 03Profit After Tax (PAT)₹15.2 Cr-52.2%YoY
    4. 04Cash Profit₹38.3 Cr-31%YoY

    Segment breakdown

    • Sugar Business₹305.9 Cr42.9%
    • Power Business₹62.2 Cr8.7%
    • Ethanol Business₹97.6 Cr13.7%
    • Chemicals Business₹47.5 Cr6.7%
    • Potable Spirits₹199.6 Cr28.0%
    Donut· Share of Revenue

    Capital allocation

    2
    high confidence
    CategoryHeadline
    Capex

    Capex disclosed

    Debt

    Debt disclosed

    Cost 5.0%

    Guidance & targets

    9
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Sugar Production
    India Sugar Production
    26.5 million to 27 million ton
    High
    Sugar Production
    India Sugar Production
    higher
    Medium
    Cane Recovery
    Cane Recovery Rate (Dhampur)
    lower by about 0.7
    High
    Cane Recovery
    Cane Recovery Rate (Rajpura)
    lower by about 0.3 to 0.4
    High
    Crushing Volume
    Total Crushing Volume
    same as last year
    Medium
    Varietal Shift
    Varietal Shift Plan Duration
    2 years
    High
    Varietal Shift
    Dhampur Plant Varietal Mix
    75% 238, 25% others (118 etc.)
    Medium
    Varietal Shift
    Rajpura Plant Varietal Mix
    65% 238, 35% other seeds
    Medium
    Ethanol Pricing
    Ethanol Price (Syrup/B-heavy)
    no increase
    High

    India Sugar Production FY26

    Next year (FY26)
    Current26.5-27 million tons (FY25 estimate)
    TargetHigher than FY25

    Why it matters

    This is a key indicator for the overall health of the sugar industry and the company's raw material availability.

    For the year '25-'26, early days, but for surely, it should be higher because both in Maharashtra and in south, we have seen that the swing of cane has been higher.

    How to verify

    guidance_and_targets

    Risks & concerns

    4
    RiskSeverity

    Red Rot Disease in Sugarcane

    The industry in UP and the company face headwinds in cane availability due to red rot, leading to lower gross recovery rates (10.17% vs 11.01% YoY).Management acknowledged

    high

    Lower Cane Availability

    Lower cane availability, caused by multiple factors including red rot, flooding, and extended monsoons, impacted H1 FY25 results and continues to be a challenge.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Ethanol Production Restrictions

    Past restrictions on using syrup and B-heavy molasses for ethanol production led to significantly lower ethanol sales volume (135.58 lakh liters in Q3 FY25 vs 268.69 lakh liters YoY).Management acknowledged

    medium

    Lower Pol in Sugarcane

    Lower pol in sugarcane compared to the previous year contributed to lower sugar production in Q3 FY25.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Q&A highlights

    8

    “So, Rohit, to answer your first thing that the sugar production that we are seeing for the year '24-'25, it will be in the range of 26.5 million to 27 million ton, is what we are seeing India to do for this year. ... For the year '25-'26, early days, but for surely, it should be higher...”

    Provides specific numerical guidance for current year's sugar production and a directional outlook for the next year, crucial for industry supply-demand dynamics.

    asked by Rohit Singh

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q3 FY25 Performance Overview and Return to Profitability

    Dhampur Sugar Mills Limited reported a revenue from operations of INR 587.1 crores in Q3 FY25, marking a 21.7% increase compared to INR 482.4 crores in the corresponding quarter last year. The company is 'back in black' after incurring losses in the first two quarters of the fiscal year. Despite the revenue growth, EBITDA declined by 30.7% to INR 48.3 crores, and Profit After Tax (PAT) fell by 52.2% to INR 15.2 crores, primarily due to challenges in the ethanol segment and lower recovery rates.

    02

    Segmental Performance Highlights

    The sugar business saw a significant turnaround, posting a profit of INR 1.2 crores in Q3 FY25 against a loss of INR 6.6 crores in the prior year, with revenue growing 31.1% to INR 305.9 crores. The potable spirits segment demonstrated strong growth, with revenue increasing 47.4% to INR 199.6 crores and profit doubling to INR 3.6 crores, aided by the commissioning of a new tetra pack machine. In contrast, the ethanol business experienced a sharp revenue decline of 44.7% to INR 97.6 crores and a 75% drop in profit to INR 5.7 crores, largely due to past restrictions on feedstock usage.

    03

    Challenges in Cane Availability and Recovery

    The company continues to face headwinds from lower cane availability and the prevalence of red rot disease in Uttar Pradesh. This resulted in a lower gross recovery rate of 10.17% in Q3 FY25, down from 11.01% in the comparable quarter last year. The late start of the crushing season by 9 days and lower pol in sugarcane also contributed to reduced sugar production of 0.97 lakh tons compared to 1.29 lakh tons YoY.

    04

    Ethanol Feedstock Strategy and Pricing

    Following the lifting of restrictions on syrup use, the company diverted 1.06 lakh tons of cane for ethanol production through syrup, an increase of 10.42% YoY. Management indicated a shift from syrup to B-heavy molasses for ethanol production from January 28, 2025, due to stable syrup prices. The estimated feedstock mix for the year is 30% syrup, 40% B-heavy, and 30% grain. The ethanol price for FY25 has been set, with no further increases expected for syrup or B-heavy based ethanol.

    05

    Varietal Shift Plan for Cane Development

    To mitigate the negative impact of red rot and improve cane availability, Dhampur Sugar has chalked out a detailed 2-year plan for varietal shift, which commenced two years ago. The plan focuses on ensuring sufficient seed availability and aims to change cane varieties in affected fields. For the Dhampur plant, 75% of cane will remain 238, while 25% will shift to other varieties; for Rajpura, 65% will be 238 and 35% other seeds by the next season.

    06

    Capital Allocation and Debt Profile

    The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a balanced long-term debt profile. The weighted average cost of long-term debt is approximately 5-5.25%, while short-term working capital debt is around 7.6-7.8%. Management stated that there are no expansion plans for 2025, with all plants fully set. Decisions regarding dividends or buybacks will be evaluated after March 2025, with both options currently open.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.