NTPC Limited — Q1 FY26 earnings call

Call held 18 Aug 2025

Management summary

The 21st Annual Meet was led by CMD Gurdeep Singh, providing a comprehensive strategic vision. NTPC revised its FY32 capacity target upward from 130 GW to 149 GW with ₹7 lakh crore cumulative CAPEX. The company reported record Q1 capacity addition of 2,716 MW. Nuclear entry was formalized with 30 GW target by 2047 and Mahi Banswara breaking ground. Management addressed RE curtailment concerns and emphasized brownfield-only thermal expansion strategy.

Highlights

  • NTPC Group installed capacity at 83 GW with 31 GW under construction

  • Revised capacity target from 130 GW to 149 GW by FY32; 244 GW by FY37

  • Cumulative group CAPEX target of ₹7 lakh crore by FY32

  • Q1 FY26 PAT of ₹4,775 crore; capacity addition of 2,716 MW in Q1 — highest ever

  • 30 GW nuclear power target by 2047; Mahi Banswara foundation stone in September

  • Forced outage reduced from 4.18% to 3.42% in Q1; loans refinanced saving ~1-2% interest

  • RE capacity addition target: ~20 GW over next 3 years with 87% PPA tie-up for FY26

  • CO2 battery at Kudgi (160 MWh) expected to commission by July 2026

Key financials

3 periods

Headline

  • Installed Capacity
    83,000 MW
  • Receivables
    32 days

Q1 FY26

  • PAT
    ₹4,775 Cr

FY25

  • PAT
    ₹19,649 Cr
    YoY +9%
  • Group PAT
    ₹23,953 Cr
    YoY +12%

What they filed

Q1 FY27: revenue up 3.0%, net profit up 11.9% against the same quarter last year.

₹ Cr · quarterly
Line itemQ2 FY25Q3 FY25Q4 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27
Revenue40,337 41,369 43,904 42,572 39,167 −3%40,644 −2%43,109 −2%43,832 +3%
EBITDA9,686 11,617 11,255 10,283 10,019 +3%11,992 +3%5,808 −48%12,629 +23%
Net profit4,649 4,711 5,778 4,775 4,653 +0%4,987 +6%8,747 +51%5,342 +12%
How to read this

₹ crore, as filed. The percentage beside a figure is the change against the same quarter a year earlier — never the quarter before, which would make every seasonal business look like it collapses and booms each year.

Guidance & targets

Capacity

  • Total Capacity Target FY32 Capacity · FY32 · High confidence 149 GW

    Previously 130 GW → 149 GW

    We had our business plan almost around six years back. We had kept around 130 gigawatt by FY32. We have already revised that and the upward revision is, it is 149 gigawatt by FY32.

    — CMD Gurdeep Singh

  • Thermal Capacity Addition Capacity · next 5 years · High confidence 26-27 GW addition to ~62 GW base (total ~88-89 GW)
    we will be having 26 to 27 gigawatt addition to around 62 gigawatt...So, it should be around 88 to 89 gigawatt.

    — CMD Gurdeep Singh

  • Nuclear Capacity Target Capacity · by 2047 · Medium confidence 30 GW by 2047
    NTPC has entered the nuclear energy domain with an ambitious goal of installing 30 gigawatt of nuclear capacity by 2047

    — Director (Finance)

  • RE Capacity Next 3 Years Capacity · FY26-FY28 · High confidence ~20 GW (current year + next 2 years)
    the initial phase 30 gigawatt if you talk about that, over the next 3 years, current year plus next two years would be roughly around 20 gigawatt

    — Director (Finance)

  • Thermal Awarding FY26 Capacity · FY26 · High confidence 7.2 GW
    This financial year we said.

    — CMD Gurdeep Singh

  • PSP Pipeline Capacity · long-term · Medium confidence 21,370 MW total (11 GW NTPC + 10.37 GW THDC/NEEPCO)
    NTPC group has an ambitious plan to develop 21370 megawatt of pump storage capacity.

    — Director (Finance)

  • Total Capacity Target FY37 Capacity · FY37 · Medium confidence 244 GW
    we have revised our capacity addition target from existing 130 GW to 149 GW by 2032 and 244 GW by 2037

    — Director (Finance)

Capex

  • Cumulative Group CAPEX by FY32 Capex · by FY32 · High confidence ₹7 lakh crore
    we aim to invest about INR7 lakh crore by FY32

    — CMD Gurdeep Singh

  • Green Hydrogen Hub Pudimadaka Total Investment Capex · long-term · Low confidence ₹80,000-85,000 crore
    the Pudimadaka itself is going to be around INR 85,000 crore total investment

    — CMD Gurdeep Singh

Risks & concerns

  • RE curtailment impacting generation and returns

    medium

    CMD acknowledged curtailment is a concern; emphasizing strategic plant placement to mitigate

    Management acknowledged

  • Nuclear tariff of ₹6-8/kWh may be uncompetitive

    medium

    Management argues must-run status and long-term coal PLF decline make it competitive

    Analyst downplayed

  • Transmission connectivity constraints for RE projects

    medium

    Bulk of new CTU connectivity available only from FY30; being managed through state JVs for land access

    Management acknowledged

Areas of evasion (1)

  • Green hydrogen investment details kept vague — 'let us not get into the numbers there'

Q&A highlights

3 direct
BESS co-location with thermal plants — Barauni model Direct
it is going to be with almost every state, you can assume...during the daytime, the power should be made available from those states, so that instead of bringing down to 55%, we can stick to, let us say, go to 70%

Opens a new regulated equity deployment avenue for BESS at existing thermal plants, potentially across all states

Asked by Apoorva (IIFL)

Nuclear power tariff economics and competitiveness Direct
If that is going to be the cost, tariff will be in the range of anywhere between INR 6 to INR 8...nuclear is going to be predominantly having a characteristic of a must-run.

₹6-8/kWh nuclear tariff is high vs conventional but management argues must-run status and coal PLF decline make it competitive long-term

Asked by Sumit Kishore (Axis Capital)

FGD investment putting NTPC at cost disadvantage vs state/private gencos Direct
we are governed by the environment norms...we are operating in the cost-plus regime. whatever investment we are doing, that's not going to put us at a disadvantageous position.

Addresses concern about ₹32,800 crore FGD investment increasing costs vs competitors who haven't invested

Asked by Mohit Kumar (ICICI Securities)

2 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Vision 2032 Upward Revision to 149 GW

NTPC revised its FY32 capacity target from 130 GW to 149 GW and set a new FY37 target of 244 GW. Cumulative CAPEX of ₹7 lakh crore is planned by FY32. The current installed base is 83 GW with 31 GW under construction. The company added a record 2,716 MW in Q1 FY26 and 3,050 MW till date in the fiscal.

Thermal Expansion — Brownfield Strategy and 88-89 GW Target

NTPC plans 26-27 GW of thermal additions on its existing ~62 GW base, targeting 88-89 GW total thermal. All new thermal is brownfield and pit-head based for cost competitiveness. CMD emphasized that 16.5-17 GW is already under construction and remaining awards will be completed in FY26. NTPC is staying out of Section 63 DBFO bids for now.

Nuclear Energy — 30 GW by 2047

Mahi Banswara (4x700 MW) foundation stone expected in September 2025. Cost estimated at ₹15-20 crore/MW with tariff of ₹6-8/kWh. NTPC has identified 28 potential nuclear sites. The nuclear subsidiary NPUNL is exploring PWR, SMR, and Fast Breeder technologies. Nuclear capacity in the FY32 plan is only ~2 GW but expected to scale beyond.

Energy Storage Innovation — CO2 Battery and BESS at Thermal Plants

NTPC is developing a 160 MWh CO2-based energy storage system at Kudgi (second in the world, first in India) targeting commissioning by July 2026. Bihar has approved cost-plus BESS co-location at Barauni thermal plant. CMD expects this model to replicate across all forward-looking states, creating a new regulated equity deployment avenue free from critical mineral dependency.

RE Portfolio — PPA Tie-up and Curtailment Management

For FY26 RE capacity of ~4,465 MW, 100% land and connectivity is secured with 87% PPA tied. FY27 target of 8,196 MW has ~80% PPA tied. CMD acknowledged curtailment as a concern and emphasized strategic plant placement. The company is building a 22.8 GW land pool through state JV partnerships.

Interest Rate Optimization and Financial Efficiency

NTPC refinanced ₹4,870 crore of loans reducing rates by 2%, and restructured ₹23,294 crore of loans with 1%+ rate cuts. RBI approved ECB of up to US$1 billion. FY25 dividend totaled ₹8.35/share (~42% of profit). Receivable days improved to 32 days vs regulatory norm of 45 days.

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