NTPC Limited — Q4 FY25 earnings call

Call held 24 May 2025

Management summary

FY25 was a landmark year for NTPC with highest-ever standalone profit of ₹19,649 crore and group PAT of ₹23,953 crore. The successful NGEL listing and Ayana acquisition through the ONGC-NTPC JV were strategic milestones. Coal PLF of 77.44% was the highest in 7 years. Management provided detailed capacity addition targets of 11,806 MW for FY26 and 9,904 MW for FY27, with RE accounting for the bulk of additions.

Highlights

  • Group commercial capacity reached 79,930 MW; standalone at 59,413 MW

  • Group generation of 439 BUs in FY25, up 4% YoY

  • Standalone total income ₹174,414 crore in FY25, up 5% YoY

  • Standalone PAT ₹19,649 crore in FY25, up 9% YoY; Adjusted PAT ₹18,016 crore, up 10%

  • Group PAT ₹23,953 crore in FY25, up 12% YoY

  • NGEL added 2,977 MW RE in FY25; total capacity 5,902 MW

  • Group CAPEX ₹44,636 crore in FY25, up 26% YoY

  • Total dividend ₹8.35/share for FY25 vs ₹7.75 in FY24

Concerns

  • RE capacity slippage — FY25 organic addition was only ~800 MW vs ~3,000 MW target

Key financials

  1. Revenue (FY) ₹1.74L Cr +5%YoY
  2. PAT (FY) ₹19,649 Cr +9%YoY
  3. Adjusted PAT (FY) ₹18,016 Cr +10%YoY
  4. PLF (Coal) 77.4%
  5. Regulated Equity ₹90,902 Cr +4%YoY
  6. Group CAPEX (FY) ₹44,636 Cr +26%YoY

What they filed

Q1 FY27: revenue up 3.0%, net profit up 11.9% against the same quarter last year.

₹ Cr · quarterly
Line itemQ2 FY25Q3 FY25Q4 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27
Revenue40,337 41,369 43,904 42,572 39,167 −3%40,644 −2%43,109 −2%43,832 +3%
EBITDA9,686 11,617 11,255 10,283 10,019 +3%11,992 +3%5,808 −48%12,629 +23%
Net profit4,649 4,711 5,778 4,775 4,653 +0%4,987 +6%8,747 +51%5,342 +12%
How to read this

₹ crore, as filed. The percentage beside a figure is the change against the same quarter a year earlier — never the quarter before, which would make every seasonal business look like it collapses and booms each year.

Segment breakdown

  • NTPC Standalone
    ₹1.74L Cr Total Income (FY)₹19,649 Cr PAT (FY)₹22,965 Cr CAPEX (FY)
  • NGEL
    ₹2,466 Cr Total Income (FY)₹2,172 Cr EBITDA (FY)90% EBITDA Margin (Q4)₹12,914 Cr CAPEX (FY)5,902 MW Commercial Capacity
  • Subsidiaries
    ₹4,139 Cr Profit (FY)6% Growth
  • JVs
    ₹2,214 Cr Share of Profit (FY)35% Growth

Guidance & targets

Capacity

  • Group COD FY26 Capacity · FY26 · High confidence 11,806 MW

    Previously 7,771 MW (prior guidance) → 11,806 MW

    NTPC Group as a whole would tally to 11,806 MW.

    — Jaikumar Srinivasan, Director (Finance)

  • RE COD FY26 (Group) Capacity · FY26 · High confidence 7,226 MW

    Previously 5,561 MW → 7,226 MW

    renewable total would be 7,226 MW

    — Management

  • Thermal Awarding Plan Capacity · FY26-FY28 · High confidence 4 GW (FY26) + 4.8 GW (FY27) + 1.6 GW (FY28)
    This year, we are expecting 4 GW. Then next financial year, we are expecting 4.8 GW and next to next financial year, 1.6 GW.

    — Management

  • Mahi Banswara Nuclear Project Capacity · from FY32 · Medium confidence 2,800 MW at ₹50,400 crore (₹18 crore/MW)
    The estimated cost of this Mahi Banswara would be INR18 crore per MW and so that would be a total of INR50,400 crore.

    — Management

  • PSP Commissioning Capacity · FY26-FY32 · High confidence 1,000 MW Tehri PSP in FY26; 3-5 GW by FY32
    We will see our first 1,000 MW PSP commissioned through Tehri PSP in FY26, with 3-5 GW more by FY32.

    — Jaikumar Srinivasan, Director (Finance)

Capex

  • Standalone CAPEX 3-Year Average Capex · FY26-FY28 · High confidence ₹29,220 crore/year
    the total for the 3 years would be INR87,661 crore. That gives an average of INR29,220 over the next 3 years.

    — Jaikumar Srinivasan, Director (Finance)

  • Group CAPEX 3-Year Total Capex · FY26-FY28 · High confidence ₹2,65,455 crore
    So that would be a whopping INR265,455 crore, giving an average of INR88,485 crore.

    — Jaikumar Srinivasan, Director (Finance)

Volume

  • Captive Coal Production Volume · FY26-FY28 · High confidence 50 MMT (FY26), 56 MMT (FY27), 60 MMT (FY28)

    From 45 MMT (FY25) today

    45 million metric tons, which would further rise to 50 million, 56 million and 60 million over the next 3 years.

    — Management

Profitability

  • Under-recovery FY25 Profitability · FY25 · High confidence ₹464 crore full year

    From ₹250-300 crore target today

    the disincentive would be INR464 crore for the year as a whole.

    — Management

Risks & concerns

  • RE capacity slippage — FY25 organic addition was only ~800 MW vs ~3,000 MW target

    high

    Slippages at Khavda (pooling substation delay) and Bhadla (land transfer delay); both resolved now

    Analyst acknowledged

  • Connectivity becoming a challenge for future RE projects

    medium

    Bulk of connectivity discussed with CTU available only in FY30; land also becoming a problem

    Management acknowledged

  • Obra-Anpara thermal project on hold due to coal and water issues

    low

    NCL coal production restrictions and water availability issues putting project on hold

    Management acknowledged

Areas of evasion (2)

  • PPA status for RE projects promised to be shared separately
  • Chhabra acquisition details deferred

Q&A highlights

2 direct, 1 evasive
RE capacity slippage and FY26 commissioning confidence Direct
We are fairly confident. Our assessment is based on all the projects under construction, both organic and inorganic. whatever is the slight slip up in the last year, that would add.

FY25 organic RE addition was only 800 MW vs target; FY26 target of 6.5 GW is a massive scale-up requiring confidence validation

Asked by Prateek (ICICI Prudential)

Ayana acquisition valuation and capital commitment Direct
Enterprise value was INR19,251 crore...EBITDA steady state is INR2,762 crore and that gives you roughly 8.4x of EV/EBITDA.

Ayana adds 4,112 MW of RE capacity (2,123 MW operational) at a clear valuation benchmark for future acquisitions

Asked by Sumit Kishore (Axis Capital)

Chhabra thermal plant acquisition status Evasive
We have not acquired Chhabra, we are in the stage of arriving at a solution for that. There are still some discussions underway.

Uncertainty on Chhabra acquisition despite earlier JV announcement raises questions about deal execution

Asked by Arihant (Bowhead India Fund)

2 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Record Profitability and Financial Performance

NTPC achieved its highest-ever standalone PAT of ₹19,649 crore in FY25, up 9% YoY, with adjusted PAT at ₹18,016 crore (up 10%). Group PAT reached ₹23,953 crore (up 12%), driven by 35% growth in JV profits (₹2,214 crore) and 6% rise in subsidiary profits (₹4,139 crore). Total dividend increased to ₹8.35/share from ₹7.75.

Massive Capacity Expansion Pipeline

Group commercial capacity reached 79,930 MW with 33.7 GW under construction (16.9 GW coal, 2.2 GW hydro, 14.6 GW RE). FY26 COD target stands at 11,806 MW (3,580 MW thermal, 1,000 MW hydro, 7,226 MW RE). Management announced thermal awarding plan of 4 GW + 4.8 GW + 1.6 GW over FY26-FY28.

NGEL Growth and Ayana Acquisition

NGEL added 2,977 MW in FY25, bringing capacity to 5,902 MW (up from 2,925 MW). Total contracted capacity reached 17,277 MW (up 50% YoY). ONGC-NTPC JV acquired Ayana for EV of ₹19,251 crore (8.4x EV/EBITDA), adding 4,112 MW portfolio. NGEL's EBITDA margin improved to 90.04% in Q4 FY25.

Nuclear Energy and Pumped Storage Frontier

Mahi Banswara nuclear project (4x700 MW) estimated at ₹50,400 crore with expected tariff of ₹7.5-8.5/kWh and 6-year execution timeline. Several states have given in-principle consent. PSP pipeline of 20 GW includes the Tehri 1,000 MW PSP expected in FY26. NTPC targets 3-5 GW PSP commissioning by FY32.

Coal Operations and Fuel Security

Captive coal production grew 29% to 45.82 MMT in FY25. Management targets 50/56/60 MMT over next 3 years for ~7% annual growth. Average borrowing cost decreased to 6.61% from 6.67%. NTPC maintained highest-in-7-years coal PLF of 77.44% vs 67.23% rest of India.

RE Execution Challenges — Khavda and Bhadla Slippages

FY25 organic RE addition was significantly below target at ~800 MW. Major slippages were at Khavda (1,255 MW delayed due to pooling substation) and Bhadla (500 MW delayed due to land transfer by Rajasthan government). Both issues are now resolved, and management raised FY26 RE target from 5 GW to 6.5 GW to compensate.

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