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    NTPC

    NTPCGood
    Power·25 Jan 2025
    Management Summary

    NTPC delivered a steady Q3 FY25 with 5% revenue growth and 3% PAT growth on standalone basis. The quarter was marked by the landmark listing of NGEL, positioning NTPC as a leader in India's energy transition. The group added 640 MW RE capacity in 9M FY25 and maintained PLF of 76.20% for coal stations, well above the rest-of-India average of 67.20%. Investment approval for 8 GW thermal capacity signals continued commitment to baseload generation alongside aggressive RE expansion.

    Highlights

    8

    • NTPC Group commercial capacity at 76,598 MW; standalone at 59,168 MW

    • Group generation of 327 BUs in 9M FY25, up 4% YoY

    • Standalone total income of ₹42,303 crore in Q3, up 5% YoY

    • Standalone PAT of ₹4,711 crore in Q3, up 3% YoY; 9M PAT ₹13,871 crore, up 11%

    • NGEL successfully listed on Nov 27, 2024; commercial capacity at 3,475 MW

    • Group CAPEX of ₹31,133 crore in 9M FY25 vs ₹21,642 crore YoY

    • Investment approval for 8 GW thermal capacity at ~₹1 lakh crore

    • Coal under-recovery reduced from ₹706 crore to ₹468 crore

    Key financials

    Single quarter

    06 metrics
    1. 01Revenue₹42,303 Cr+5%YoY
    2. 02PAT₹4,711 Cr+3%YoY
    3. 03Adjusted PAT₹4,618 Cr+6%YoY
    4. 04PLF (Coal)76.2%
    5. 05Regulated Equity₹90,289 Cr+7.0%YoY

    Segment breakdown

    NTPC Standalone
    ₹1.3L Cr Total Income (9M)₹13,871 Cr PAT (9M)₹13,015 Cr Adjusted PAT (9M)
    NGEL
    ₹581 Cr Total Income (Q3)₹500 Cr EBITDA (Q3)3,475 MW Commercial Capacity
    Subsidiaries
    ₹1,908 Cr Profit (9M)26% Growth
    JVs
    ₹1,581 Cr Share of Profit (9M)11% Growth
    List

    Guidance & targets

    9
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Capacity
    Group COD FY25
    6,976 MW
    		High
    Capacity
    RE Capacity Addition FY25 (NGEL Group)
    ~3,088 MW
    		High
    Capacity
    Group COD FY26
    7,771 MW
    		High
    Capacity
    Group COD FY27
    9,904 MW
    		High
    Capacity
    RE Target by 2032
    60 GW
    		Medium
    Capacity
    Additional Thermal Awarding
    7.2 GW
    		High
    Volume
    Coal Production Target
    67 MMT by FY29
    		Medium
    Profitability
    Coal Under-recovery Target FY25
    ₹250-300 crore
    		Medium
    Other
    RE IRR Target
    12.5%
    		High

    Risks & concerns

    5
    RiskSeverity

    BHEL supply chain delays impacting thermal project commissioning

    BHEL vendor cash flow issues caused delays but management says improvements are underway — Analyst acknowledged

    medium

    Bangladesh JV plant shutdown due to coal supply issues

    Plant shutdown for want of coal, equity invested ₹1,324 crore; coal expected to arrive soon — Analyst acknowledged

    low

    Q4-heavy RE commissioning creates execution risk

    Only 640 MW added in 9M vs ~3,000 MW full year target for NGEL — Analyst downplayed

    medium

    Areas of Evasion(2)

    • Chhabra JV acquisition consideration not disclosed
    • Future hydro plans vaguely answered

    Q&A highlights

    3

    “the chunk of the capacity addition is coming in the fourth quarter. It can't be, as per my desire that it should be completely equated.”

    Q4-heavy commissioning pattern raises execution risk for RE targets

    asked by Puneet (HSBC)

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    NGEL Listing and RE Expansion Momentum

    NGEL's successful listing on November 27, 2024 marked a pivotal milestone. Commercial capacity stood at 3,475 MW with Q3 income of ₹581 crore (up 25% YoY) and EBITDA of ₹500 crore (up 22% YoY). Total contracted and awarded capacity surged 63% YoY to 13,921 MW. The company won 2,200 MW in TBCB bids during the fiscal including a 1,000 MW UPPCL solar auction at ₹2.56/kWh.

    02

    Aggressive Thermal Capacity Expansion Pipeline

    Investment approval was granted for 8 GW thermal capacity at ~₹1 lakh crore during FY25. Total thermal capacity under construction reached 17.56 GW. Management outlined plans for an additional 7.2 GW of thermal awards by FY27, all brownfield. The 3-year COD guidance totals 24,651 MW comprising 5,700 MW thermal, 1,444 MW hydro, and 17,507 MW RE.

    03

    Nuclear Energy Entry via ASHVINI and NPUNL

    NTPC signed a supplementary JV agreement with NPCIL to transfer the 2,800 MW Mahi Banswara project to ASHVINI. Additionally, NTPC Parmanu Urja Nigam Limited was incorporated on January 7, 2025 as a wholly-owned subsidiary for nuclear energy business. Site studies have commenced at 4 locations in Madhya Pradesh.

    04

    Coal Mining Self-Sufficiency Drive

    Captive coal production reached a record 30.88 MMT in 9M FY25, growing 23% YoY. Cumulative mining capex stood at ₹11,841 crore. Management targets scaling production from 40 MMT in FY25 to 67 MMT by FY29, significantly enhancing fuel security and regulated equity base.

    05

    Regulated Equity Growth and Financial Stability

    Standalone regulated equity grew 7% to ₹90,289 crore while consolidated regulated equity reached ₹1,05,854 crore (up 5%). Average borrowing cost remained stable at 6.64%. The group CAPEX surged 44% to ₹31,133 crore in 9M FY25, reflecting accelerated project execution. Second interim dividend of ₹2.50 per share was declared.

    06

    FGD Compliance and Environmental Initiatives

    NTPC has commissioned 12,120 MW equivalent FGD capacity at a cost of ₹5,368 crore. The total FGD program covers 59,880 MW at an estimated ₹32,800 crore. FY26 and FY27 are set to see major FGD commissioning of 13,310 MW and 14,110 MW respectively. Biomass procurement surged to 4.29 lakh metric tonnes in 9M FY25 from 0.71 lakh tonnes YoY.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.