AbbVie Inc. ABBV

AbbVie's ex-Humira platform demonstrated exceptional performance, delivering over 18% sales growth for the full year 2024 and accelerating to 22% in the fourth quarter. This strong execution was critical in achieving a rapid return to sales growth, despite a $5 billion erosion from U.S. Humira in 2024. The company anticipates this platform will drive robust mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025 and enable AbbVie to exceed its previous peak revenue within two years of the U.S. Humira LOE.

Skyrizi and Rinvoq are key drivers of growth, expected to collectively generate nearly $24 billion in 2025, an increase of over $6 billion. Their combined sales are now projected to exceed $31 billion in 2027, a $4 billion increase from prior guidance, primarily due to strong share capture across all approved indications. Skyrizi holds approximately 40% total prescription share in the biologic psoriasis market, while Rinvoq is capturing over 20% in-play share in atopic dermatitis and leading in-play share in second-line plus RA. In IBD, the two treatments combined capture about half of the in-play share in Crohn's disease and roughly one-third in ulcerative colitis.

Neuroscience, AbbVie's second-largest therapeutic area, is experiencing robust performance with sales expected to reach $10 billion in 2025, reflecting $1 billion growth. This is driven by double-digit growth from Vraylar, Botox Therapeutic, Ubrelvy, and Qulipta. The company is also excited about its emerging Parkinson's disease portfolio, including the recently launched VYALEV, a subcutaneous 24-hour continuous infusion therapy, and tavapadon, which showed positive Phase III results for early Parkinson's disease.

AbbVie's oncology segment reported $1.7 billion in Q4 revenues, with Venclexta sales up 13% operationally and Elahere demonstrating a strong launch trajectory with $148 million in global sales. The company is particularly focused on its ADC pipeline, with Teliso-V under regulatory review for non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer and ABBV-400 (Temab-A) advancing rapidly in colorectal and lung cancer. ABBV-706 and IMGN-151 are also progressing, with a strategy centered on target selection, patient individualization, and optimizing tolerability for combination therapies.

Global aesthetics sales declined 4.4% operationally in Q4, with U.S. sales down 5%, primarily due to suppressed consumer spending and promotional dynamics. The facial injectable market, especially fillers, was notably impacted, declining approximately 10%. Following negative feedback on an updated Alle loyalty program, AbbVie reinstated the original program, which has been met with positive provider response and encouraging early signs for market share recovery. The company expects modest aesthetics sales growth in 2025, with a high single-digit revenue CAGR through 2029, driven by market recovery and pipeline innovation like BoNT/E.

AbbVie made significant R&D progress, securing recent approvals for Skyrizi in UC, Epkinly, Elahere, VYALEV, and new indications for Botox and Juvederm. Upcoming approvals are anticipated for Rinvoq in GCA and Teliso-V in H1 2025, with regulatory submissions planned for tavapadon, Venclexta (MDS), and BoNT/E. The company has also expanded its pipeline through over 20 early-stage deals since early 2024, focusing on novel mechanisms and promising technologies in immunology, oncology, and neuroscience to drive growth in the next decade.

Following Phase III readouts for emraclidine (EMPOWER-1 and 2), a thorough analysis revealed a lack of uniformity in placebo effect across sites. While a modest efficacy signal was observed in sites with lower placebo response, the company sees a path forward for emraclidine as an adjunct to atypicals in schizophrenia and as a monotherapy in psychosis related to Alzheimer's and Parkinson's. A multiple ascending dose study is planned for 2025, with data expected in early 2026, to explore higher doses and potentially re-evaluate monotherapy in schizophrenia.

AbbVie reported full year adjusted EPS of $10.12 and Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.16. For 2025, the company projects adjusted EPS between $12.12 and $12.32 on total net revenues of approximately $59 billion. AbbVie expects to generate free cash flow approaching $17 billion in 2025, supporting a growing quarterly dividend and debt repayment of nearly $3 billion. The company remains on track to achieve a net leverage ratio of 2x by the end of 2026, providing capacity for continued business development.