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    ABNB
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    Airbnb, Inc. ABNB

    Feb 13, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Airbnb Q4 FY24 — Nights Booked and GBV Accelerate, Strong FCF and Share Repurchases

    Airbnb concluded FY24 with accelerating growth in nights booked and gross booking value, driven by product optimizations and global market expansion. The company is poised for its "next chapter" in FY25, focusing on launching new offerings adjacent to its core travel business, supported by a rebuilt tech stack and significant investments, while maintaining strong profitability and free cash flow. Management also highlighted the success of the Co-Host Network and the strategic use of AI for customer service and future travel concierge services.

    Highlights

    6
    • Nights and Experiences Booked accelerated to 12% YoY growth in Q4 FY24, making it the highest year-over-year growth quarter of 2024.

    • Revenue grew 12% YoY to $2.5 billion in Q4 FY24.

    • Adjusted EBITDA for full year FY24 totaled $4 billion, representing a 36% margin.

    • Generated $4.5 billion in free cash flow for full year FY24, representing a 40% margin.

    • Repurchased $3.4 billion of Class A common stock for the full year FY24, with $3.3 billion remaining on authorization.

    • Co-Host Network grew to almost 100,000 listings in 4 months, with co-host listings earning twice as much revenue.

    Concerns

    4
    • Q1 FY25 revenue growth of 4% to 6% YoY is impacted by FX headwinds and calendar timing (Easter, Leap Day), creating a hard comparison.

    • Q1 FY25 adjusted EBITDA and margin expected to decline YoY due to calendar and FX headwinds, and investments in new businesses.

    • Investments of $200 million to $250 million in new businesses will negatively impact adjusted EBITDA margin in the first 9 months of FY25.

    • New York City's regulation banned the majority of Airbnb's business, leading to increased hotel prices (up 7% YoY) and no meaningful housing stock return.

    Guidance & targets

    9
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Revenue
    $2.23 billion and $2.27 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Revenue Growth (ex-FX and calendar impacts)
    10% to 12%
    medium materiality
    High
    Nights and Experiences Booked Growth
    relatively in line with Q1 '24
    medium materiality
    High
    Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin
    decline compared to Q1 2024
    medium materiality
    High
    Investment in new businesses
    $200 million to $250 million
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EBITDA Margin
    at least 34.5%
    high materiality
    High
    New businesses scaling
    3 to 5 years to scale
    medium materiality
    Medium
    New businesses revenue potential
    A great business could get to $1 billion of revenue
    medium materiality
    Medium
    New offerings launch frequency
    one or a couple of businesses to launch every single year for the next 5 years
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    28
    Nights and Experiences Booked Growth
    12%highest year-over-year growth quarter of 2024
    Q4 FY24

    Accelerated in Q4 FY24.

    Revenue Growth
    12%YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Accelerated from Q3 FY24.

    Net Income
    $461 million
    Q4 FY24
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $765 million
    Q4 FY24
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $4 billion
    FY24
    Adjusted EBITDA Margin
    36%4,000 basis points expansion since 2020
    FY24
    Free Cash Flow Margin
    40%
    FY24
    Corporate Cash and Investments
    $10.6 billion
    Q4 FY24

    As of end of year.

    Funds Held on Behalf of Guests
    $5.9 billion
    Q4 FY24

    As of end of year.

    Share Repurchases
    $838 million
    Q4 FY24

    Class A common stock.

    Share Repurchases
    $3.4 billion
    FY24

    Class A common stock.

    Remaining Repurchase Authorization
    $3.3 billion
    Q4 FY24

    At the end of Q4 FY24.

    Targeted Markets Growth Rate
    double the ratevs. core markets
    Q4 FY24

    Markets outside top 5 core markets (U.S., U.K., Canada, France, Australia).

    Co-Host Network Listings
    almost 100,000grown in just 4 months
    Current

    Listings managed by co-hosts.

    Co-Host Listings Revenue
    twice as muchvs. other listings
    Current

    Due to co-hosts being top hosts with high ratings (average 4.87) and 75% being Super Hosts.

    Co-Host Network Countries
    10
    Initial launch

    Launched with 10,000 co-hosts.

    Co-Host Network Co-Hosts
    15,000up from 10,000
    Current

    Increased from initial launch.

    Co-Host Average Rating
    4.87
    Current

    Indicates high quality of co-hosts.

    Mobile Bookings Share
    60%up from 55% year before
    Q4 FY24

    Mobile app converts significantly higher than mobile website.

    Hotel Prices
    up 7%YoY
    YoY

    After New York City banned the majority of Airbnb's business.

    Rent Prices
    up 3%YoY
    YoY

    After New York City banned the majority of Airbnb's business, showing no meaningful housing stock return.

    Listings Removed
    400,000
    Since April 2023

    Removed due to not meeting guest expectations, as part of a new host quality system.

    Guest Favorites Nights Booked
    250 million
    Since October 2023

    Guest Favorites lead to lower customer service rates, fewer trip issues, higher guest NPS, and lower cancellations.

    Total Occupancy Tax Collected and Remitted
    $13 billion
    To date

    Reflects partnership with cities on regulation.

    Longer-Term Stays Share of Nights Booked
    17%-18%
    Current

    Expected to become an even greater share of business.

    FX Service Fee Impact on Take Rate
    20 basis pointslift
    Annualized

    Introduced mid-2024, expected to provide full benefit in FY25 without offsets.

    Marketing Intensity
    flat percent of revenue
    FY25

    Allows for increased investment in expansion markets.

    Engineering Productivity Gain (AI)
    30%increase
    Medium term

    Expected gain from AI tools, potentially an order of magnitude more long-term.

    Industry KPIs

    1
    MetricValueDetails
    Gross bookings value room nightsaccelerating

    Product announcements

    2
    ProductTypeDetails
    AI-powered customer supportlaunch
    New Offeringslaunch

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Q1 FY25 Calendar and FX HeadwindsQ1 FY25

    Revenue growth would be about 6 percentage points higher (10% to 12%) without these impacts; Adjusted EBITDA and margin expected to decline YoY.

    Mitigation: Management highlights underlying growth stability when excluding these factors.

    Investment in New Businesses Impact on Short-Term MarginsFirst 9 months of FY25

    $200 million to $250 million investment; impact on quarterly adjusted EBITDA margin will be most pronounced in the first 9 months of 2025.

    Mitigation: Expected to drive long-term revenue growth and market share gains; full-year adjusted EBITDA margin still expected to be at least 34.5%.

    New York City Regulatory EnvironmentOngoing

    Banned the majority of Airbnb's business; hotel prices up 7% YoY, rents up 3% YoY, no meaningful housing stock return.

    Mitigation: Management views NYC as an outlier and cautionary tale, believes other cities will see Airbnb as a partner/solution.

    Competition from HotelsOngoing

    For every person who books an Airbnb, about 9 people book a hotel; North America is still a market dominated by hotels.

    Mitigation: Focus on improving reliability, quality, affordability, and frictionless booking to attract hotel users; product optimizations lifted growth rate by a couple of hundred basis points.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    AI-powered customer support launch

    Summer Release
    CurrentIn development
    TargetSuccessful launch and initial impact

    Why it matters

    This is the first major AI initiative and could significantly improve customer service efficiency and lay the groundwork for future AI-driven features.

    later this year, we're going to be rolling out, as part of our Summer Release, AI-powered customer support.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    How long do localization efforts typically take, and what are the $200M-$250M investments primarily geared towards (marketing, engineering)?

    Localization duration varies by market; targeted markets are growing at double the rate of core markets. Investments in new businesses will primarily go to marketing (building supply operations, awareness, demand generation) and product development (increasing headcount for faster roadmap execution).

    those markets that we've targeted are growing about double the rate of our core markets.

    asked by Stephen Ju · answered by Ellie Mertz

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Product Optimizations and Tech Stack Modernization

    Airbnb has rolled out over 535 features and upgrades, primarily in the last two years, to enhance the guest and host experience. These include Guest Favorites for easier listing discovery and the Co-Host Network to simplify hosting. The company has rebuilt its platform with a new technology stack, enabling faster innovation and expansion beyond short-term rentals, with a significantly larger Summer Release expected.

    02

    Global Market Expansion Strategy

    The company is actively investing in markets outside its top 5 core regions (US, UK, Canada, France, Australia), which currently comprise 70% of GBV. These targeted markets are growing at double the rate of core markets, with Brazil cited as a success case due to brand marketing investments over the past two years. Japan is a newer focus with brand marketing commencing in Q4, expected to take longer to scale due to lower domestic awareness.

    03

    AI Integration for Efficiency and Future Services

    Airbnb is prioritizing AI integration, starting with AI-powered customer support to be rolled out in the Summer Release. This is expected to significantly improve efficiency for millions of annual contacts. The long-term vision is to evolve this into a "travel and living concierge" within Airbnb search, leveraging the commoditization of AI models to accrue value to the platform.

    04

    New Business Expansion Philosophy

    Airbnb is preparing to expand beyond its core "place to stay" offering, launching new businesses starting in May 2025. The strategy involves using a single app and brand, with each new business designed to be strong enough standalone but also strengthen the core. Initial offerings will be closely adjacent to travel, such as experiences and services that enhance a stay, with a goal to increase app usage frequency from once or twice a year to once or twice a week.

    05

    North American Market Opportunity

    Despite its scale, North America remains a hotel-dominated market, offering significant growth potential for Airbnb. The company aims to increase penetration in underrepresented demographics like the Latino population and "Heartland states." Management believes that continued improvements in usability, affordability, and reliability will eventually lead to a "tipping point" where more hotel travelers choose Airbnb, especially for group travel where it offers better value.

    06

    Regulatory Landscape and Partnerships

    Airbnb views cities as increasingly partners rather than adversaries, citing successful collaborations for large events like the Paris Olympics (housing 700,000 guests) and disaster relief efforts (housing 19,000 residents in LA fires). New York City is considered an outlier, where a ban on most short-term rentals did not reduce rents or increase housing stock, but did raise hotel prices by 7% YoY, serving as a cautionary tale for other cities.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.