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    AEE
    Earnings call· Mar 2025(Q1 FY25)

    AMEREN Q1 FY25 earnings call AEE

    May 2, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Ameren Q1 FY25 — Strong Earnings and Data Center Demand Drive Confidence in Growth

    Ameren delivered strong Q1 FY25 earnings, driven by strategic infrastructure investments and a constructive regulatory environment in Missouri, including a favorable rate review settlement and new energy legislation. The company significantly expanded its contracted data center load, reinforcing confidence in its long-term growth targets. While navigating potential impacts from trade tariffs and higher MISO capacity prices, Ameren remains focused on executing its robust capital plan and financing strategy to support rate base and EPS growth.

    Highlights

    5

    • Q1 FY25 earnings of $1.07 per share, up from $1.02 adjusted EPS in Q1 FY24.

    • Signed construction agreements for 2.3 GW of future data center demand, an increase of 500 MW from the prior quarter.

    • Missouri PSC approved a constructive settlement for a $355 million annual revenue increase, effective June 1.

    • Missouri Senate Bill 4 enacted, extending Plant-in-Service Accounting (PISA) through 2035 and expanding it to new natural gas generation.

    • Completed over 80% of 2025 debt financings, including $350M Ameren Illinois bonds, $750M Ameren Parent notes, and $500M Ameren Missouri bonds.

    Concerns

    2

    • MISO Planning Resource Auction resulted in a notable increase in capacity prices for June-August 2025 in all MISO zones, impacting some Ameren Illinois customers.

    • Uncertainties associated with proposed trade tariffs, with a potential 2% impact on the $26 billion capital plan before mitigation.

    Guidance & targets

    7
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    2025 Diluted Earnings Per Share
    $4.85 to $5.05 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Compound Annual Earnings Growth Rate
    6% to 8%
    high materiality
    High
    Compound Annual Rate Base Growth
    9.2%
    high materiality
    High
    Common Equity Issuance
    $600 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Large Load Rate Structure Filing
    File for approval
    medium materiality
    High
    Ameren Illinois Revenue Adjustment Decision
    ICC decision expected
    medium materiality
    High
    Illinois Natural Gas Rate Review Decision
    ICC decision expected
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    11
    Retail sales volume growth (weather-normalized)
    3%YoY
    Trailing 12 months ended March

    Across all customer classes.

    Equity issued (ATM program)
    $535 million
    YTD 2025

    Sold forward under the at-the-market (ATM) program, expected to be issued near year-end.

    Debt financings completed
    over 80%
    YTD 2025

    Progress on 2025 financing plan.

    Prevented customer outages
    114,000more than any full year since 2021
    Q1 2025

    Achieved through smart switching during major storms, due to grid hardening investments.

    Economic development capital investment
    $700 million
    Q1 2025

    Across nearly a dozen projects in various sectors in the service territory.

    IRA tax credits monetization
    $300 million
    Annual average

    Expected average annual value of tax credits over the 5-year plan.

    IRA tax credits customer bill savings
    $2 billion
    Over 10 years

    Estimated customer bill savings based on the IRP, assuming tech-neutral tax credits are maintained.

    FFO to debt S&P downgrade threshold
    13%
    Ongoing

    Ameren targets credit metrics at or above this threshold; currently has 'quite a bit of cushion'.

    Capital plan tariff exposure
    2%
    Over 5 years

    Estimated potential impact on the overall capital plan before mitigation efforts.

    Payments for gas turbine long-lead materials
    $100 million
    YTD 2025

    Payments made to suppliers to secure turbines for the next two simple cycle natural gas energy centers.

    Castle Bluff 800MW plant cost estimate
    $900 million
    Projected

    Cost estimate for one of the 800MW gas plants, remains consistent.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Adjusted operating EPS$1.07USD
    Multi year capital plan$63 billionUSD
    Dividend per share growthAttractive
    Regulatory rate base growth9.2%%
    Allowed ROE equity layer rate cases$355 millionUSD
    Combined electric gas framework mandatesSenate Bill 4 enacted
    Major regulated project construction progressOn schedule and on budget

    Orderbook & backlog

    1
    Data center construction agreements2.3 gigawattsQ1 FY25

    up 500 megawatts from February

    Developers submitted nonrefundable payments totaling $26 million towards transmission upgrades; subject to agreement on rate structure and separate electric service agreements specifying ramp-up schedules and minimum load obligations.

    Capital programs

    4
    Multi-year capital investment planunderway$63 billion

    Benefit: Stronger, smarter, cleaner energy grid; powering economic growth

    Robust pipeline of investment opportunities over the next decade.

    5-year growth plan capital investmentsunderway$26 billion
    Start: 2025

    Benefit: Supports 9.2% compound annual rate base growth

    This is the 5-year segment of the broader multi-year plan, driving rate base growth.

    Next 2 simple cycle natural gas energy centersunderway$900 million
    Spent to date: in excess of $100 million

    Benefit: 1,200 megawatts (total for all new generation projects, not just these two gas plants)

    Contracts executed for all 8 turbines and other long lead time materials. The Castle Bluff 800MW plant is estimated at $900M.

    Solar energy centers (Vandalia, Bowling Green, Split Rail)under construction

    Nearly all imported equipment was in the U.S. prior to the April 2 trade tariff announcement, limiting possible exposure to higher costs.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Potential changes to IRA tax credit transferabilityNear-term (House Ways and Means marking up legislation, bill to President by July 4)

    Averaging about $300 million per year in credits over the 5-year plan.

    Mitigation: Strong balance sheet, many credits already tied to in-service/safe-harbored projects, advocacy for maintaining credits and transferability for customer affordability, potential to work around it without additional equity.

    Trade tariffs on imported materialsOngoing

    Potential 'about 2%' impact on the $26 billion capital plan before mitigation.

    Mitigation: Sourcing practices designed for competitive prices, most imported solar equipment already in U.S., team examining potential impacts and looking for mitigation ways, potential to pivot to domestically sourced for battery projects.

    Increased MISO capacity pricesJune-August 2025

    Notable increase in capacity prices for June through August 2025 in all MISO zones.

    Mitigation: Changes in energy and capacity prices are passed on to customers with no markup; prices expected to return to pre-auction levels in October; active engagement in discussions for long-term solutions; support for customer bill assistance programs.

    What to watch in Q2 FY25

    5

    MoPSC decision on large load rate structure

    Before the end of the year (expected)
    CurrentFiling expected in Q2 FY25
    TargetDecision and effective rate structure

    Why it matters

    This will provide clarity on the commercial terms for the significant data center demand, impacting revenue and capital deployment.

    We continue to expect to file for approval of the proposed rate structure with the MoPSC in the second quarter. While there's no deadline for commission approval, we are optimistic that we'll receive a decision and have an effective rate structure before the end of the year.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Clarification on the 500 MW increase in data center agreements and how the total 2.3 GW impacts future generation needs and the IRP.

    Marty Lyons confirmed the 500 MW increase is incremental, bringing the total to 2.3 GW. He stated this reinforces confidence in the 5.5% compound annual sales growth projection for Missouri (2025-2029) and that the current IRP generation plans are adequate for this load. He noted that the actual ramp-up schedule will become clearer after filing the rate construct in Q2 and signing separate service agreements with hyperscalers.

    “if you sign 2.3 gigawatts of construction agreements, for example, you could still have at or less than 2 gigawatts of sales by 2032 depending upon the ramp-up schedule. So we'll get greater clarity over time. But I think the 2.3 gigawatts certainly gives us greater confidence with respect to the sales growth.”

    asked by Jeremy Tonet · answered by Martin Lyons

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q1 Performance and Strategic Plan Execution

    Ameren reported Q1 FY25 earnings of $1.07 per share, up from $1.02 adjusted EPS in Q1 FY24, driven by infrastructure investments. The company remains committed to its strategic plan focused on delivering reliable, affordable energy and making prudent investments. Grid hardening investments have already prevented over 114,000 customer outages in 2025, equivalent to 30 million outage minutes avoided, demonstrating the positive impact of prior investments.

    02

    Missouri Regulatory and Legislative Progress

    The Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC) approved a constructive settlement in Ameren Missouri's electric rate review, supporting grid reliability investments and a $355 million annual revenue increase effective June 1. Additionally, the Missouri General Assembly and Governor enacted Senate Bill 4, which extends Plant-in-Service Accounting (PISA) for another seven years through 2035, expands PISA to include new natural gas generation, and modifies the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process, enhancing regulatory certainty and investment opportunities.

    03

    Economic Development and Data Center Demand

    Ameren's service territory is experiencing strong economic growth, with nearly a dozen projects supported in Q1 bringing over $700 million in capital investment and 1,000+ jobs. The company now has signed construction agreements with data center developers representing approximately 2.3 gigawatts of future demand, an increase of 500 megawatts since February. These developers have made $26 million in nonrefundable payments for transmission upgrades, and Ameren expects to file for approval of a new rate structure for large load customers in Q2.

    04

    Generation Development and Tariff Impact

    Ameren Missouri's 1,200 MW of new generation projects, including gas and solar energy centers, remain on schedule and on budget. Contracts for all eight turbines for the next two simple cycle natural gas energy centers (in-service 2027/2028) have been executed. Most imported equipment for solar projects was in the U.S. prior to the April 2 trade tariff announcement, limiting exposure. The company is monitoring tariff impact🌐s but expects them to be manageable, estimating a potential 2% impact on the $26 billion capital plan before mitigation.

    05

    MISO Transmission Planning and Future Needs

    Ameren is actively engaged in MISO's long-range transmission planning, focusing on developing proposals for Tranche 2.1 competitive projects ($6.5 billion over this year and next). MISO's future scenario redesign efforts, considering growing demand and changing resource planning, are expected to issue a final report by year-end, with Tranche 2.2 projects commencing as early as December 2025 to address further regional transmission needs.

    06

    Financing and Credit Position

    Ameren has made significant progress on its 2025 financing plan, completing over 80% of its debt financings, including $350 million of Ameren Illinois bonds, $750 million of Ameren Parent notes, and $500 million of Ameren Missouri bonds. The company expects to issue approximately $600 million of common equity in 2025, with $535 million already sold forward via its ATM program. S&P affirmed Ameren's BBB+ credit rating, and the company targets credit metrics at or above agency downgrade thresholds.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.