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    AEE
    Earnings call· Jun 2025(Q2 FY25)

    AMEREN Q2 FY25 earnings call AEE

    Aug 1, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Ameren Corporation Q2 FY25 — Strong Performance Driven by Infrastructure Investment and Data Center Demand

    Ameren delivered strong Q2 FY25 results, driven by strategic infrastructure investments and robust economic development, particularly from data centers. The company is actively managing generation resource development and regulatory processes to support future demand, while navigating challenges from severe weather and regulatory scrutiny on transmission planning and rate cases. Management remains confident in achieving its long-term earnings and dividend growth targets.

    Highlights

    5

    • Reported Q2 FY25 earnings of $1.01 per share, up from $0.97 per share in Q2 FY24.

    • Maintained full-year 2025 diluted EPS guidance of $4.85 to $5.05 per share, expecting to land in the top half.

    • Secured construction agreements for 2.3 gigawatts of future data center demand, with developers making $28 million in nonrefundable payments.

    • Anticipates approximately 5.5% compound annual sales growth from 2025 through 2029 in Missouri, primarily from data centers.

    • Expects a 6% to 8% compound annual earnings growth rate from 2025 through 2029, driven by 9.2% compound annual rate base growth.

    Concerns

    4

    • Experienced a high number of severe weather events in Q2, including an EF3 tornado causing widespread outages to over 290,000 customers.

    • A complaint was filed by five state commissions alleging MISO violated its tariff for Tranche 2.1 projects, potentially delaying needed transmission investments.

    • ICC staff recommended a $49 million reconciliation adjustment for Ameren Illinois' electric multiyear rate plan, compared to the company's $60 million request.

    • ICC staff recommended a $103 million annual base rate increase for Ameren Illinois' natural gas distribution, lower than the company's $135 million request, primarily due to a lower recommended ROE (9.93%) and equity ratio (50%).

    Guidance & targets

    9
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Diluted Earnings Per Share
    $4.85 to $5.05 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Compound Annual Earnings Growth Rate
    6% to 8%
    high materiality
    High
    Compound Annual Rate Base Growth
    9.2%
    high materiality
    High
    Common Equity Issuance
    $600 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Big Hollow Energy Center In-Service Date
    2028
    medium materiality
    High
    Combined Cycle Energy Center In-Service Date
    2031
    medium materiality
    High
    Missouri PSC Decision on Large Load Rate Structure
    February 2026
    high materiality
    Medium
    MISO Future Scenario Redesign Report
    Early 2026
    medium materiality
    Medium
    MISO Specific Transmission Investment Needs Identification
    Late 2026
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Operational metrics

    7
    Q2 Adjusted EPS
    $1.01up from $0.97 per share in Q2 FY24
    Q2 FY25

    Key driver of earnings growth is investments to strengthen the energy grid and provide more energy resources.

    Total Normalized Retail Sales Growth
    1%
    Trailing 12 months through June

    Solid customer growth at Ameren Missouri.

    Industrial Retail Sales Growth
    2.5%
    Trailing 12 months through June

    Supported primarily by ongoing manufacturing expansions and growth of new digital and communication services firms.

    Energy-Related Tax Credits (Customer Savings)
    $1.5 billion
    2025 through 2029

    Expected to provide cost savings for customers. $750M from projects in service or planned by 2027; $250M from battery projects starting construction this year; $500M from additional solar projects starting construction this year.

    Illinois Electric Rate Reconciliation Adjustment (ICC Staff Recommendation)
    $49 millioncompared to company's $60 million request
    2024

    Variance primarily driven by treatment of other post-employment benefits. ICC decision expected by mid-December, with rates effective January 2026.

    Illinois Natural Gas Distribution Rate Increase (ICC Staff Recommendation)
    $103 millioncompared to company's $135 million request
    Annual

    Variance primarily driven by staff recommendation of a 9.93% return on equity and a 50% common equity ratio. ICC decision expected by early December, with new rates effective later that month.

    Vegetation Management
    increase
    H2 FY25

    Planned in targeted operating regions to support system reliability and grid resiliency, in response to robust vegetation growth from spring/early summer weather.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Adjusted operating EPS$1.01per share
    Multi year capital planmore than $63 billionUSD
    Dividend per share growthattractive dividend
    Regulatory rate base growth9.2%%
    Allowed ROE equity layer rate cases9.93% ROE, 50% common equity ratio%
    Combined electric gas framework mandatesapproved CCNs for Tranche 1 long-range transmission projects
    Major regulated project construction progressBig Hollow Energy Center (800 MW gas, 400 MW battery storage) expected in-service 2028; Combined Cycle Energy Center expected in-service 2031MW

    Orderbook & backlog

    2
    Data Center Future Demand (Executed Construction Agreements)2.3 gigawattsQ1 FY25

    Load expected to begin ramp up in late 2026 and beyond. Developers have submitted nonrefundable payments totaling $28 million towards necessary transmission upgrades. Developers are also requesting studies for expanding these projects.

    MISO Tranche 2.1 Competitive Projects Portfolio$6.5 billionQ2 FY25

    Bidding and selection process will take place over 2025 and 2026. Ameren will submit bids for projects where it offers a clear advantage and expects to partner with other entities.

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    Data Center DevelopersConstruction agreements for future data center demand

    These agreements represent future demand expected to ramp up in late 2026 and beyond. Developers are also requesting studies for expanding these projects.

    Other entitiesPartnership for MISO Tranche 2.1 competitive projects

    Ameren expects to partner with other entities when it enhances the strength and competitiveness of their proposals for the $6.5 billion portfolio of competitive projects.

    Capital programs

    3
    Multi-year Investment Planunderwaymore than $63 billion
    Start: 2025

    Benefit: stronger, smarter, cleaner energy grid; economic growth

    Robust pipeline of investment opportunities to deliver significant value to stakeholders.

    Big Hollow Energy Centerunder development

    Benefit: 800 MW simple cycle natural gas, 400 MW battery energy storage

    Requested CCN in June. Located at the site of Ameren's retired Rush Island Energy Center to reduce construction time and cost. Subject to commission approval.

    Combined Cycle Energy Centerunder development

    Equipment procurement activities have begun. Purchase commitments for turbines and related equipment expected by end of 2025.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Severe Weather EventsQ2 FY25

    EF3 tornado on May 16; widespread outages to more than 290,000 customers

    Mitigation: Ongoing investments in a more resilient energy grid, including upgraded substations, composite poles, and smart technologies for faster outage detection and self-healing.

    MISO Tranche 2.1 ComplaintOngoing

    Complaint filed by 5 state commissions on July 30, alleging MISO violated its tariff and asking FERC to declassify projects.

    Mitigation: Ameren is assessing the filing and will be thoughtful about its response, supporting the need for and value of the projects.

    Regulatory Discrepancies (Illinois Electric)ICC decision by mid-December 2025

    ICC staff recommended $49 million reconciliation adjustment vs. company's $60 million request.

    Mitigation: Actively engaging in the regulatory process; rates reflecting approved adjustment effective January 2026.

    Regulatory Discrepancies (Illinois Natural Gas)ICC decision by early December 2025

    ICC staff recommended $103 million annual base rate increase vs. company's $135 million request, based on 9.93% ROE and 50% equity ratio.

    Mitigation: Actively engaging in the regulatory process; new rates effective later that month.

    Supply Chain Risks for Generation ResourcesOngoing

    Long lead times for key components like turbines and transformers.

    Mitigation: Proactively managing by securing key components for energy centers with expected in-service dates through 2029; begun equipment procurement for combined cycle energy center.

    What to watch in Q3 FY25

    5

    Combined Cycle Energy Center Turbine Purchase Commitments

    next 60-90 days
    CurrentEquipment procurement activities begun
    TargetPurchase commitments in place

    Why it matters

    Securing these commitments is crucial for the 2031 in-service date and managing supply chain risks for a major generation project.

    I think over the course of the next 60, 90 days, we'll have locked that in. But I think the preliminary discussions are the teams feeling good about that time line that 2031 and that's obviously a big project.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Asked about Ameren's data center load pipeline, noting peers have increased theirs, and inquired about economic development and future growth outlook.

    Marty Lyons stated the pipeline remains extremely strong in both Missouri and Illinois, with robust interest and momentum. While the 2.3 GW of signed construction agreements is unchanged, developers are requesting studies for expansion opportunities beyond current sites, extending the pipeline past 2032. Michael Moehn added that the overall economy in the service territory is strong, with 1% overall retail sales growth and 2.5% industrial growth, providing a good backdrop for economic development.

    “I would say the pipeline is -- this is Marty, by the way, Jeremy, the pipeline remains extremely strong, both in Missouri and Illinois. So no change in the number of construction agreements signed, but the pipeline of opportunity is still very large, folks looking at data center development in both Illinois and Missouri in the near term.”

    asked by Jeremy Tonet · answered by Martin Lyons

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Economic Development and Data Center Demand

    Ameren continues to see robust interest and strong momentum from data center developers and hyperscalers, expecting approximately 5.5% compound annual sales growth in Missouri from 2025 through 2029. The company has executed construction agreements for 2.3 gigawatts of future demand, with load expected to ramp up from late 2026. Developers have made $28 million in nonrefundable payments for transmission upgrades, and are requesting studies for expanding existing data center projects, indicating potential growth beyond 2032.

    02

    Generation Resource Development

    To support growing demand, Ameren Missouri is accelerating generation portfolio additions. A Certificate of Convenience and Necessity (CCN) was requested for the Big Hollow Energy Center, an 800 MW natural gas facility with 400 MW battery storage, expected in-service by 2028. Equipment procurement has begun for a combined cycle energy center, with turbine purchase commitments expected by year-end and in-service by 2031. The company is proactively managing supply chain risks by securing long lead time components.

    03

    Missouri Large Load Rate Structure

    Ameren Missouri filed a proposed large load rate structure with the Missouri PSC in May. This structure would deliver service under the existing large primary service base rate (approximately $0.06 per kilowatt hour) with additional terms in Electric Service Agreements (ESAs), including a 15-year minimum service term and a 70% minimum demand charge. The goal is to ensure large customers pay their fair share of service costs, with a PSC decision expected by February 2026.

    04

    MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning

    Ameren is focused on building Tranche 1 and Tranche 2.1 long-range transmission planning projects and developing proposals for competitive Tranche 2.1 projects. The $6.5 billion portfolio bidding process will occur over 2025-2026. MISO's future scenario redesign efforts are expected to show significant transmission investment needs, with a final report outlining four scenarios due in early 2026, leading to specific investment identification in late 2026.

    05

    Federal Tax and Energy Policy

    Energy-related tax credits are expected to provide approximately $1.5 billion in cost savings for customers from 2025 through 2029. This includes $750 million from wind and solar projects (in-service or planned by 2027), $250 million from battery projects (construction starting this year), and $500 million from additional solar projects (construction starting this year). The company feels well-positioned to realize these credits under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

    06

    Illinois Regulatory Proceedings

    In Illinois, the ICC staff recommended a $49 million reconciliation adjustment for the 2024 electric multiyear rate plan, compared to Ameren's $60 million request, with a decision expected by mid-December. For the natural gas distribution rate review, staff recommended a $103 million annual base rate increase, lower than the $135 million requested, based on a 9.93% return on equity and 50% common equity ratio. A decision is expected by early December.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.