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    AEE
    Earnings call· Sep 2025(Q3 FY25)

    AMEREN CORP AEE

    Nov 6, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Ameren Q3 FY25 — Strong Earnings Growth and Expanding Data Center Pipeline

    Ameren delivered strong Q3 FY25 adjusted EPS, driven by strategic infrastructure investments and robust sales growth, leading to an upward revision of its full-year 2025 guidance. The company is actively expanding its data center pipeline, with 3 gigawatts of signed construction agreements, though initial ramps are now anticipated in 2027. Management remains confident in achieving earnings growth near the upper end of its 6% to 8% long-term range, pending regulatory approvals for large load tariffs and the finalization of energy service agreements.

    Highlights

    5
    • Adjusted EPS of $2.17 per share in Q3 FY25, up $0.30 from Q3 FY24.

    • Increased 2025 adjusted EPS guidance range to $4.90-$5.10, with the midpoint representing 8% growth.

    • Expanded executed construction agreements with data center developers to 3 gigawatts, up from 2.3 gigawatts.

    • Achieved 9.2% compound annual rate base growth expectation from 2025 through 2029.

    • Secured production slots for 3 turbines for a combined cycle energy center expected in 2031, remaining on track for dispatchable resources.

    Concerns

    3
    • Ramps for data center projects are now expected to begin in 2027, a slight delay from previous expectations of late 2026.

    • The ALJ recommended an annual base rate increase of $91 million for Ameren Illinois natural gas distribution, lower than the requested $135 million.

    • The ICC staff revised its reconciliation adjustment recommendation for the Illinois electric multiyear rate plan to a $47 million increase, lower than the company's updated request of $60 million.

    Guidance & targets

    17
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted diluted earnings per share
    $4.90 to $5.10
    high materiality
    High
    Diluted earnings per share
    $5.25 to $5.45
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term EPS compound annual growth rate
    6% to 8%
    high materiality
    High
    Rate base compound annual growth rate
    9.2%
    high materiality
    High
    Total generation capacity addition
    approximately 10 gigawatts
    medium materiality
    High
    Natural gas generation capacity addition
    3.7 gigawatts
    medium materiality
    High
    Renewables generation capacity addition
    4.2 gigawatts
    medium materiality
    High
    Battery storage capacity addition
    1.4 gigawatts
    medium materiality
    High
    New data center load
    1 gigawatt
    high materiality
    High
    New data center load
    1.5 gigawatts
    high materiality
    High
    Generation mix from on-demand resources
    approximately 70%
    medium materiality
    High
    Generation mix from intermittent resources
    30%
    medium materiality
    High
    Common equity issuance
    approximately $600 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Illinois natural gas distribution annual base rate increase
    $135 million
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Illinois natural gas distribution annual base rate increase (ALJ recommendation)
    $91 million
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Illinois electric multiyear rate plan reconciliation adjustment
    $60 million increase
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Illinois electric multiyear rate plan reconciliation adjustment (ICC staff recommendation)
    $47 million increase
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Operational metrics

    21
    Adjusted Earnings Per Share
    $2.17up from $1.87 in Q3 FY24
    Q3 FY25

    Excluding a $0.18 tax benefit related to FERC order guidance on NOL carryforwards.

    Tax Benefit
    $0.18
    Q3 FY25

    Recorded due to IRS guidance and a FERC order regarding treatment of net operating loss carryforwards. Excluded from adjusted earnings.

    Adjusted EPS Increase
    $0.30YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Key factor driving the increase in adjusted earnings per share.

    Infrastructure Investment
    $3 billion
    YTD Q3 FY25

    Deployed in critical infrastructure upgrades for customers.

    Generation Resources Investment
    $825 million
    YTD Q3 FY25

    Invested in new or existing generation resources.

    Customer Savings from Tax Credits
    $1.5 billion
    through 2029

    Expected from Ameren Missouri's planned generation portfolio.

    Realized Customer Savings from Tax Credits
    $270 million
    FY25 YTD

    Realized so far in 2025 from planned generation portfolio.

    Large Primary Service Base Rate
    $0.06
    current

    Proposed as the base rate for large load customers under the new rate structure.

    Investment Opportunities Pipeline
    $68 billion
    next decade

    Pipeline continues to grow.

    Equity Sales Distribution Agreement Capacity Increase
    $1.25 billion
    August 2025

    Increased capacity to enable additional sales to support equity needs in 2027 and beyond, having utilized most of the existing capacity.

    First Mortgage Bonds Issued
    $350 million
    September 2025

    Completed planned debt issuances for this year.

    ALJ Recommended Return on Equity
    9.93%
    October 2025

    Part of the ALJ recommendation for the annual base rate increase.

    ALJ Recommended Common Equity Ratio
    50%
    October 2025

    Part of the ALJ recommendation for the annual base rate increase.

    Energy Efficiency Investment
    $250 milliondouble current investment
    annual

    Expected investment under the new Illinois Omnibus Energy bill, treated as a regulatory asset with return.

    Electric Customers
    2.5 million
    current

    Total electric customers served.

    Natural Gas Customers
    900,000
    current

    Total natural gas customers served.

    Retail Sales Growth (Normalized)
    1.5%YoY
    TTM Sep 2025

    Total normalized retail sales increased across all customer classes.

    Missouri Sales Growth from Data Centers
    5.5%compound annual
    2025-2029

    Represents the impact of 1 gigawatt of new data center load by 2029.

    Economic Development Opportunities Pipeline
    36 gigawatts
    current

    Broad pipeline of opportunities, mostly in early stages.

    Data Center Opportunities in Advanced Discussions
    2 gigawatts
    current

    In addition to the 3 GW of signed construction agreements.

    Moody's Downgrade Threshold
    17%
    current

    Company operating above this threshold in 2025, providing good margin.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Adjusted operating EPS$2.17USD per share
    Multi year capital plan$68 billionUSD
    Dividend per share growth
    Regulatory rate base growth9.2%%
    Allowed ROE equity layer rate cases9.93% ROE, 50% common equity ratio%
    Combined electric gas framework mandates
    Major regulated project construction progress

    Orderbook & backlog

    2
    Data Center Construction Agreements3 gigawattsQ3 FY25

    up from 2.3 gigawatts

    Developers made nonrefundable payments totaling $38 million for transmission upgrades. Ramps expected to begin in 2027. Another 2 GW in advanced discussions in Missouri. Overall economic development pipeline of 18 GW in Missouri, 80-90% data centers.

    Data Center Construction Agreements850 megawattsQ3 FY25

    Signed construction agreements with developers, payments received for necessary transmission interconnections. Energy supply expected via third-party agreements. Overall economic development pipeline of 18 GW in Illinois, 80-90% data centers.

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    3 other partnersJoint proposal for a competitive transmission project in Wisconsin

    Submitted in August for a MISO LRTP Tranche 2.1 competitive project. Ameren expects to partner when it enhances strength and competitiveness of proposals.

    Capital programs

    4
    Ameren Missouri 2025 Smart Energy Planunderway
    Period spend: $3 billion

    Benefit: 11,300 electric distribution poles replaced, 300 smart switches installed, 32 miles subtransmission lines hardened, 5 new/upgraded substations energized, 55 miles underground cable replaced

    Deployed in critical infrastructure upgrades through September 2025.

    Ameren Missouri Preferred Resource Plan (Generation Capacity)underway
    Period spend: $825 million

    Benefit: 10 GW total generation capacity (3.7 GW natural gas, 4.2 GW renewables, 1.4 GW battery storage)

    Investment in new or existing generation resources through September 2025. Requested CCNs for 1.45 GW additional resources. Secured production slots for 3 turbines for combined cycle energy center expected in 2031.

    Reform Solar Energy CenterCCN requested

    Benefit: 250 megawatts solar

    Planned facility adjacent to existing Callaway Nuclear Energy Center. CCN requested from Missouri Public Service Commission in August.

    Multi-year Capital and Financing Plansplanned
    Start: 2026

    Details to be provided in February 2026, reflecting firmed up capital estimates related to Ameren Missouri's preferred resource plan.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Uncertainty in data center ramp rates2027 onwards

    Ramps now expected to begin in 2027, a slight delay from late 2026.

    Mitigation: Working to get tariff approved by Missouri PSC and sign energy services agreements (ESAs) to firm up ramp rates and sales projections.

    Lower than requested rate increase for Illinois natural gas distributionDecision expected November 2025, rates effective December 2025.

    ALJ recommended $91 million annual base rate increase vs. $135 million requested.

    Mitigation: Engaging with ICC; difference primarily driven by allowed ROE, common equity ratio, and OPEB treatment.

    Lower than requested reconciliation adjustment for Illinois electric multiyear rate planICC decision expected mid-December, rates effective January 2026.

    ICC staff recommended $47 million increase vs. $60 million requested.

    Mitigation: Engaging with ICC; variance primarily driven by treatment of other post-employment benefits.

    Community concerns regarding data centers (water usage, noise, electricity rates)Ongoing

    Not quantified, but expressed by certain communities.

    Mitigation: Addressing concerns through the approval process; ensuring data center developers pay for cost to serve them and that existing customers are not harmed, as mandated by Missouri Senate Bill 4.

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    Missouri Large Load Rate Structure Approval

    by February 2026
    CurrentFiled with Missouri PSC, updated in surrebuttal testimony. Decision expected by February 2026.
    TargetPSC approval of the proposed rate structure.

    Why it matters

    Approval is critical for finalizing energy service agreements with data center developers and firming up ramp rates, impacting future sales projections and capital investment.

    While no deadline exists for Missouri PSC approval of our proposed large load rate structure, based on the existing procedural schedule, we would expect a decision by February of 2026.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    With 3 GW of signed data center construction agreements, will future revisions to generation plans be needed?

    The current generation plans can serve up to 2 GW of increased sales by 2032, providing confidence in sales projections. The 3 GW of construction agreements give greater confidence in achieving sales growth expectations. The actual ramp rates will be firmed up after the Missouri PSC approves the tariff and energy service agreements (ESAs) are signed with hyperscalers. An updated IRP filing is expected around September 2026.

    the current generation plans that we do have allow us to serve greater than 2 gigawatts beyond 2032. So we'll really have to see what those ramp rates look like over time and what that means for added generation capacity over time.

    asked by Diana Niles · answered by Martin Lyons

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Economic Development and Large Load Growth

    Ameren is actively engaged in economic development, particularly with data center customers, building a robust pipeline of opportunities extending into the next decade. Ameren Missouri has expanded executed construction agreements with data center developers to 3 gigawatts, up from 2.3 gigawatts, with nonrefundable payments totaling $38 million received for transmission upgrades. The company expects 1 gigawatt of new data center load by 2029 and 1.5 gigawatts by 2032, representing approximately 5.5% compound annual Missouri sales growth from 2025. In Illinois, developers are advancing data center projects with 850 megawatts of expected incremental energy demand, also with signed construction agreements and payments received for interconnections.

    02

    Missouri Preferred Resource Plan and Generation Strategy

    Ameren Missouri's updated preferred resource plan calls for adding approximately 10 gigawatts of generation capacity by 2035, including 3.7 GW of natural gas, 4.2 GW of renewables, and 1.4 GW of battery storage. The company has invested over $825 million in new or existing generation resources through September 2025 and requested CCNs for 1.45 gigawatts of additional resources. A key target is to maintain a balanced energy mix of 70% on-demand and 30% intermittent resources by 2040, with planned generation expected to provide $1.5 billion in customer savings from tax credits through 2029.

    03

    Regulatory Framework for Large Load Customers

    Ameren Missouri filed a proposed large load rate structure with the Missouri PSC in May, updated in surrebuttal testimony, designed to ensure new large load customers pay for their cost of service and connection. The proposal includes service under the existing large primary service base rate (approximately $0.06 per kWh), a 12-year service commitment after ramp, an 80% minimum demand charge of contracted capacity, and exit provisions. A decision from the Missouri PSC is expected by February 2026, aiming to offer competitive rates while protecting existing customers.

    04

    Illinois Regulatory Updates

    In Illinois, Ameren's natural gas distribution rate review is pending with the ICC, with an ALJ recommendation of a $91 million annual base rate increase (vs. $135 million requested) based on a 9.93% ROE and 50% equity ratio. A decision is expected in November 2025, with rates effective in December. For the electric multiyear rate plan, the ICC staff revised its reconciliation adjustment recommendation to a $47 million increase (vs. $60 million requested), with an ALJ recommendation expected soon and an ICC decision by mid-December, effective January 2026.

    05

    Leadership Transition

    Effective January 1, Michael Moehn will transition to Group President of Ameren Utilities, overseeing all business segments. Lenny Singh, currently Chairman and President of Ameren Illinois, will succeed Michael as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. These changes are intended to leverage deep financial and operational expertise to continue delivering value for customers and shareholders, ensuring financial discipline aligned with regulatory frameworks.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.