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    AEP
    Earnings call· Jun 2025(Q2 FY25)

    AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO Q2 FY25 earnings call AEP

    Jul 30, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    American Electric Power Q2 FY25 — Strong Earnings, Increased Capital Plan, and Significant Load Growth

    American Electric Power delivered its strongest second quarter operating earnings ever, driven by robust load growth and strategic regulatory and legislative successes. The company raised its full-year EPS guidance to the upper half of its range and reaffirmed its long-term growth rate, supported by an expected increase in its 5-year capital plan to $70 billion. Management emphasized significant customer commitments for 24 GW of incremental load and a substantial interconnection queue, positioning AEP for unprecedented growth while maintaining financial discipline and balance sheet strength.

    Highlights

    5
    • Delivered strongest ever second quarter operating earnings of $1.43 per share, an increase of 14% year-over-year.

    • Raised 2025 operating earnings guidance to the upper half of the $5.75 to $5.95 per share range.

    • Increased firm customer commitments for incremental load to 24 gigawatts by the end of the decade, up from 21 gigawatts.

    • Announced an expected new 5-year capital plan of approximately $70 billion, up from the current $54 billion plan.

    • Secured key regulatory and legislative wins, including an enhanced data center tariff in Ohio and the Texas Unified Tracker Mechanism.

    Concerns

    2
    • Increased year-over-year O&M in the Transmission & Distribution Utilities segment, primarily driven by system improvements and storm-related expenses.

    • Potential for a few projects at the back end of the capital plan to need reassessment for tax credit eligibility if new Treasury guidance redefines beginning of construction criteria, with a worst-case scenario of a couple of billion dollars reallocated.

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Operating earnings per share
    Upper half of $5.75 to $5.95
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term operating earnings growth rate
    6% to 8%
    high materiality
    High
    New 5-year capital plan
    Approximately $70 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Incremental capital allocation (new 5-year plan)
    50% transmission, 40% generation, 10% distribution
    medium materiality
    High
    NOLCs ongoing impact to operating earnings
    $0.03 per share
    low materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Vertically Integrated Utilities
    Operating earnings were up $0.10 from a year earlier, driven by rate changes across multiple jurisdictions and increasing load from data centers. These positive drivers were partially offset by variance from last year's extremely favorable weather and higher depreciation due to increased capital investment.
    $0.56 per share
    Transmission & Distribution Utilities
    Operating earnings were up $0.01 from last year. Favorable drivers included rate changes from rider recovery of distribution investments in Ohio and the base rate case in Texas, as well as continued gains in retail sales from large loads. These were partially offset by increased year-over-year O&M, primarily from system improvements and storm-related expenses.
    $0.42 per share
    AEP Transmission Holdco
    Operating earnings were up $0.03 from last year, primarily driven by continued investments in transmission assets as new loads are added to the system.
    $0.42 per share
    Generation & Marketing
    Operating earnings were up $0.05 from last year. Favorable energy margins were partially offset by lower distributed generation margins due to the sale of the OnSite Partners business in September 2024.
    $0.17 per share

    Operational metrics

    16
    Operating earnings per share
    $1.43up $0.18 or 14% YoY
    Q2 FY25

    Strongest ever second quarter operating earnings in company history.

    GAAP earnings increase from NOLCs
    $480 millionor $0.90 per share
    Q2 FY25

    Resulted from a final decision from FERC affirming the appropriate treatment of NOLCs to transmission formula rates. Tax benefit related to prior years excluded from operating earnings.

    NOLCs ongoing impact to operating earnings
    $0.03
    Annual

    Expected ongoing impact to operating earnings from the resolution of Net Operating Loss Carryforwards (NOLCs) treatment.

    Liquidity
    Above $5.6 billion
    Q2 FY25

    Company's liquidity position remains very strong.

    Forward equity offering
    $2.3 billion
    Q1 FY25

    Proactive equity offering completed in the first quarter, fulfilling equity needs for the $54 billion capital plan.

    Minority transmission transaction
    $2.82 billion
    Q2 FY25

    Closing of the minority transmission transaction, further reinforcing the balance sheet.

    AEP Texas earned ROE
    8.6%
    Current

    Current earned ROE for AEP Texas, with significant improvement expected from the Unified Tracker Mechanism (UTM).

    PSO earned ROE
    8.3%
    Current

    Current earned ROE for PSO, with expected improvement from Oklahoma Senate Bill 998.

    Renewables capital plan
    $9.9 billion
    5-year

    Capital plan for wind and solar generation, with all projects currently expected to qualify for full tax credits.

    Potential reallocated capital (renewables)
    Couple of billion dollars
    Back end of plan

    Worst-case scenario for capital reallocation from renewables to alternative generation if new Treasury guidance impacts tax credit eligibility for projects at the back end of the plan.

    PJM capacity prices
    Above $325
    Recently

    PJM capacity prices clearing above the price cap, reinforcing the need for capacity and energy and giving confidence in the growing capital plan.

    SMR early site permit investment
    Up to $125 million
    Ongoing

    Investment allowed in Virginia for early site permit work for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), with strong regulatory support.

    Ohio data center tariff
    Q2 FY25

    Established enhanced financial obligations for data centers to fund necessary infrastructure, providing assurances for reliable grid infrastructure while keeping costs low for all customers. Joins similar tariffs in Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky.

    Texas House Bill 5247 (Unified Tracker Mechanism)
    June

    Became law in June, allows utilities meeting certain criteria to submit a single annual filing for distribution and transmission investment, eliminating regulatory lag, streamlining the process, and substantially improving earned ROEs for AEP Texas.

    Oklahoma Senate Bill 998
    August

    Effective beginning in August, allows PSO to defer 90% of all distribution and general plant that goes in service between rate cases as a regulatory asset, encouraging investment, reducing regulatory lag, and increasing earnings recognition.

    FERC NOLCs ruling
    Q2 FY25

    FERC issued orders agreeing with AEP's proposed treatment of NOLCs within its transmission formula rates, resolving the issue and transitioning substantially all ratemaking to the required regulatory approach.

    Industry KPIs

    4
    MetricValueDetails
    Ffo to debt14.8%%
    Retail sales growth4GW
    New gas generation builds upgrades795MW
    Contracted large load capacity esas loas24GW

    Orderbook & backlog

    3
    Incremental peak demand (weather-normalized)4 GWQ2 FY25

    from 33.5 GW to 37.6 GW

    Added since this time last year; largely due to new data centers and other industrial customers coming online in Indiana, Ohio, and Texas.

    Contracted incremental load24 GWQ2 FY25

    up from 21 GW

    Firm customer commitments backed by signed customer agreements (LOAs or ESAs) expected by the end of the decade. Breakdown: ~2.5 GW in SPP (2.1 GW data centers, 0.3 GW crypto); ~9 GW in PJM (3.7 GW Ohio data centers, 3.1 GW I&M data centers); ~13 GW in ERCOT (2 GW data centers, 5 GW crypto).

    Interconnection queue190 GWQ2 FY25

    Additional load actively seeking to connect to AEP's system, representing 5 times the current system size of 37 GW; requests are at varying stages of development.

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    PSOPurchase of natural gas-fired generation facility

    PSO purchased the Green Country Power Plant, a 795-megawatt natural gas-fired generation facility located in Jenks, Oklahoma, following commission approval in June. The plant has been successfully integrated into PSO's operations.

    Capital programs

    1
    New 5-year capital planexpected$70 billion
    Funding: Evaluating multiple options including hybrids, growth equity, and strong operating cash flow from operations
    Start: This fall

    Expected to be announced this fall, increasing from the current $54 billion 5-year capital plan. Incremental capital is anticipated to be allocated approximately 50% to transmission, 40% to generation, and 10% to distribution. Specific incremental breakdown includes ~$2B in I&M generation, ~$3B in PSO generation, ~$7B in AEP Texas transmission, and ~$2B for distribution across APCos, plus ~$2B for miscellaneous projects.

    Risks & headwinds

    2
    Increased O&M expensesQ2 FY25

    Increased year-over-year O&M

    Tax credit eligibility for renewables projectsBack end of the plan

    Potential for a couple of billion dollars in capital reallocation

    Mitigation: Any impacted capital would be reassigned to alternative forms of generation assets.

    What to watch in Q3 FY25

    4

    New 5-year capital plan details and financing strategy

    Q3 FY25 earnings call (later this year)
    CurrentExpected new 5-year plan of up to $70 billion, current plan $54 billion.
    TargetDetailed $70 billion capital plan and associated financing strategy.

    Why it matters

    This significantly expanded capital plan is central to AEP's growth trajectory and its ability to meet unprecedented🌐 load demand, impacting future earnings and financing needs.

    Keeping in mind, we expect to increase the capital plan to a new 5-year spend of up to $70 billion. We are seeing great clarity into this capital growth, and we will be ready to lay out the details of our revised capital and financing plans on the third quarter earnings call.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    How will the additional $16 billion in CapEx be financed, and how will the new regulatory mechanisms (Ohio forward test year, Texas UTM) impact the long-term growth rate within the 6-8% range?

    Trevor Mihalik stated that AEP has pre-funded 5 years of equity needs for the existing $54 billion plan, providing flexibility for the incremental capital. He mentioned exploring hybrids, growth equity, and leveraging strong operating cash flow from favorable legislative developments. He reaffirmed the 6-8% growth rate, noting that the new mechanisms position them well within this range, but they want to see continued progress before any upward revisions.

    We really believe this incremental load with capital investments and the financing strategy and this positive regulatory and legislative developments really position us well within the 6% to 8% range.

    asked by Ross Fowler · answered by Trevor Mihalik

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Record Load Growth and Strategic Positioning

    AEP is experiencing transformative load growth across its 11-state footprint, with 24 GW of incremental load backed by signed customer agreements expected by the end of the decade, up from 21 GW previously reported. This growth is primarily driven by data centers, reshoring of manufacturing, and economic development. The company also has an additional 190 GW in its interconnection queue, five times its current system size, leveraging its extensive 765 kV transmission network, which uniquely positions it to serve large-load customers.

    02

    Regulatory and Legislative Successes

    AEP achieved significant regulatory and legislative wins, including the approval of an enhanced data center tariff in Ohio, which ensures reliable infrastructure funding while protecting existing customers. Other successes include the purchase of the 795 MW Green Country Power Plant in Oklahoma, FERC's affirmation of NOLC treatment, and the passage of Texas House Bill 5247 (Unified Tracker Mechanism) and Oklahoma Senate Bill 998, both designed to reduce regulatory lag and encourage capital investment, thereby improving earned ROEs.

    03

    Capital Plan Expansion and Financing Strategy

    The company is executing on its current $54 billion 5-year capital plan and expects to announce a new 5-year plan of approximately $70 billion this fall. This incremental capital is anticipated to be allocated 50% to transmission, 40% to generation, and 10% to distribution. AEP has proactively financed its existing capital plan through a $2.3 billion forward equity offering and a $2.82 billion minority transmission transaction, covering its equity needs for the current plan and providing flexibility for future growth.

    04

    SMR and Innovative Solutions

    AEP is exploring Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as a potential option for safe, reliable, and clean baseload energy, focusing on early site permit processes in Indiana and Virginia with strong regulatory support. The company is also deploying Bloom fuel cells as a low-risk approach to bridge data center load from initial power to ultimate grid connection, offering innovative solutions for rapidly growing power demand and ensuring connectivity for customers during the 5-7 year interconnection agreement process.

    05

    Financial Strength and Credit Quality

    AEP delivered its strongest ever second quarter operating earnings of $1.43 per share, leading to a raised 2025 operating EPS guidance to the upper half of $5.75 to $5.95. The company maintains strong liquidity of over $5.6 billion and a healthy balance sheet, with S&P reaffirming its BBB+ credit rating and stable outlook. Management emphasized a disciplined approach to financing the expanded capital plan, prioritizing balance sheet strength and judicious equity issuance while balancing stakeholder interests.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.