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    AERO
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Q2 FY26 earnings call AERO

    Jul 14, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Aeromexico Q2 FY26 — Record Revenues Despite Fuel Headwinds and World Cup Impact

    Aeromexico delivered record Q2 revenues and maintained profitability within guidance, navigating high fuel prices and temporary World Cup-related domestic demand moderation. The company demonstrated operational agility by adjusting its network and achieving a strong fuel cost recapture rate. Management is confident in a solid second half, projecting low double-digit full-year EBIT margin and leveraging increased capacity for improved unit costs.

    Highlights

    5

    • Total revenue reached approximately $1.5 billion in Q2, representing 30% year-over-year growth.

    • Premium revenue mix reached 43%, up 1 percentage point year-over-year and 17 percentage points compared to 2019, marking the highest level in company history.

    • EBIT margin stood at 5% despite fuel costs being approximately $30 million higher than forecast.

    • Ended Q2 with a strong liquidity position, including more than $1 billion in cash and total liquidity above $1.2 billion.

    • Achieved a fuel cost recapture rate of 76%, exceeding the 50% target.

    Concerns

    3

    • Fuel costs were approximately $30 million higher than forecast, impacting EBIT margins.

    • Domestic demand moderated in June due to World Cup-related shifts, resulting in an estimated $24 million revenue loss for the month.

    • Operating margins for Q3 are expected to be modestly below last year's exceptionally strong levels due to higher fuel costs.

    Guidance & targets

    20
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year EBIT margin
    low double-digit range
    high materiality
    High
    Q4 Capacity (ASKs) growth
    high single-digit year-over-year growth
    medium materiality
    High
    Q3 EBITDA
    higher compared to 2025
    medium materiality
    High
    Q3 EBIT
    higher compared to 2025
    medium materiality
    High
    Q4 EBITDA
    higher compared to 2025
    medium materiality
    High
    Q4 EBIT
    higher compared to 2025
    medium materiality
    High
    Q3 Revenue
    $1.59 billion and $1.62 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Q3 Adjusted EBITDA margin
    mid to high 20s
    high materiality
    High
    Q3 Operating margin
    mid-teens
    high materiality
    High
    Q4 Capacity (ASKs) growth
    approximately 6.5% year-over-year
    medium materiality
    High
    Q4 Total Revenue growth
    14.5% to 16.5%
    high materiality
    High
    Q4 Adjusted EBITDA margin
    28% to 31%
    high materiality
    High
    Q4 Operating margin
    15.5% to 18.5%
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year ASM growth
    2% to 3%
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year Total Revenue growth
    13% to 14% versus 2025
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year Adjusted EBITDA margin
    20.5% to 26.5%
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year Operating margin
    11% to 13%
    high materiality
    High
    Net cash flow from operating activities growth
    more than 30%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    FY26 CapEx
    around $450 million
    high materiality
    High
    FY27 CapEx
    around $450 million
    high materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    21
    Premium revenue mix
    43%up 1 percentage point YoY and 17 percentage points vs 2019
    Q2 FY26

    highest level in Aeromexico's history

    Aeromexico Rewards passenger participation
    39%up 7 percentage points YoY
    Q2 FY26

    record high

    EBIT margin
    5%
    Q2 FY26

    despite fuel costs being approximately $30 million higher than forecast

    ASMs growth
    2%YoY
    Q2 FY26

    in line with guidance

    Total Revenue
    $1.5 billion30% YoY growth
    Q2 FY26

    in line with guidance

    Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile (TRASM) growth
    10.5%YoY
    Q2 FY26

    primarily driven by strong international passenger revenue and the appreciation of the Mexican peso

    Passenger Revenue per Available Seat Mile (PRASM) growth
    10%YoY
    Q2 FY26
    Total operating costs growth
    30%YoY
    Q2 FY26

    primarily driven by elevated and volatile fuel prices

    Fuel cost headwind
    $220 millionvs 2025
    Q2 FY26
    Incremental fuel cost pressure vs guidance
    $30 millionvs guidance assumptions
    Q2 FY26
    Fuel cost recapture rate
    76%
    Q2 FY26

    exceeded target of 50%

    Operating expenses growth (ex-fuel)
    13%YoY
    Q2 FY26

    reflecting the continued strength of the Mexican peso, inflationary pressure on wages and salaries and higher depreciation associated with fleet growth in 2025

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $260 million
    Q2 FY26

    Both metrics were within the guidance range we provided in April.

    Operating Income
    $68 million
    Q2 FY26

    Both metrics were within the guidance range we provided in April.

    Cash balance
    $1 billion
    Q2 FY26

    as of end of Q2 FY26

    Total liquidity
    $1.2 billion
    Q2 FY26

    as of end of Q2 FY26

    Financial debt reduction
    $70 million
    Q2 FY26
    Adjusted net debt
    below prior year balanceYoY decrease
    Q2 FY26
    World Cup revenue impact
    $24 millionrevenue loss
    June 2026

    estimated for domestic revenue

    Capital expenditures
    $450 million
    FY26

    expected for full year

    Capital expenditures
    $450 million
    FY27

    expected for full year

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Fuel76%%
    Capacity2%%
    Fleet mro2aircraft
    Unit revenue10.5%%
    Loyalty co brand39%%
    Demand indicatorshealthy
    Premium diverse revenue mix43%%

    Product announcements

    3
    ProductTypeDetails
    Mexico City to Barcelona routelaunch
    Monterrey to Paris routelaunch
    Mexico City Lounges and Check-in Facilitieslaunch

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    Inbursaco-lending

    Launched new Aeromexico co-branded credit card program with Inbursa. Half of new cardholders did not previously hold an Aeromexico credit card.

    American Expresspartnership

    Working on a new contract for co-branded credit card program.

    Risks & headwinds

    6
    High and volatile jet fuel pricesQ2 FY26, ongoing

    $220 million headwind vs 2025 in Q2; $30 million above Q2 forecast

    Mitigation: Achieved 76% fuel cost recapture rate in Q2; network adjustments to avoid unprofitable flying; expect >100% recapture in H2

    World Cup impact on domestic trafficJune 2026

    Estimated $24 million revenue loss in June

    Mitigation: Adjusted network in anticipation of lower corporate traffic; strong recovery seen in July for domestic market

    Strong Mexican Peso impacting peso-denominated costsQ2 FY26, ongoing

    Contributed to 13% increase in ex-fuel operating expenses

    Mitigation: Kept discipline in nonfuel costs

    Inflationary pressure on wages and salariesQ2 FY26, ongoing

    Contributed to 13% increase in ex-fuel operating expenses

    Higher depreciation from fleet growthQ2 FY26, ongoing

    Contributed to 13% increase in ex-fuel operating expenses

    Increased maintenance costsFY26

    Higher than last year

    Mitigation: Due to additional fleet received in 2025 and adjustment from power-by-the-hour agreement renewals for 737, 787, and entire fleet.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    What was the specific impact of the World Cup on June corporate revenue, and what recovery trends are observed in July/Q3 for domestic and international markets?

    The World Cup caused an estimated $24 million revenue loss in June for domestic traffic, but overall Q2 revenues were still record high. Corporate traffic and leisure in the domestic market are showing a very strong recovery in July, with solid numbers for August and September. International demand remains very strong.

    “The impact of the World Cup on domestic revenue we estimated for June to be around $24 million.”

    asked by Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI · answered by Andrés Conesa Labastida

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q2 Performance and Market Adaptation

    Aeromexico achieved strong Q2 results, with revenues growing 30% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, despite facing high and volatile jet fuel prices and temporary demand moderation in June due to the World Cup. The company's ability to quickly adjust its network, particularly in the domestic market, allowed it to avoid unprofitable flying and maintain profitability within its guidance range. This agility is highlighted as a key competitive advantage.

    02

    Premium Segment Strength and Customer Engagement

    The premium revenue mix reached a record 43% in Q2, up 1 percentage point year-over-year and 17 percentage points from 2019, demonstrating the resilience of demand for its premium offerings even amidst fare increases. Initiatives like the new Aeromexico Rewards co-branded card with Inbursa and the growing participation in the Aeromexico Rewards program (39% of passengers, up 7% YoY) are driving higher customer satisfaction and engagement.

    03

    Operational Excellence and Network Expansion

    Aeromexico maintained its leadership in on-time performance among global full-service carriers and opened new best-in-class lounges and check-in facilities in Mexico City. The company expanded its international network by launching two new long-haul routes to Barcelona and Paris, which are performing strongly. Additional wide-body aircraft deliveries and increased slots at Mexico City International Airport are expected to support further growth in Q4.

    04

    Financial Resilience and Capital Allocation

    Despite significant fuel cost headwinds ($220 million compared to 2025, with $30 million above forecast), Aeromexico ended Q2 with over $1 billion in cash and $1.2 billion in total liquidity, without incurring new debt. The company generated $362 million in operating cash flow and reduced financial debt by $70 million, reflecting a disciplined approach to capital allocation and strong cash flow generation.

    05

    Outlook for Second Half and 2027

    Management projects higher EBITDA and EBIT for Q3 and Q4 compared to 2025, with full-year 2026 EBIT margin expected in the low double-digit range. The planned ASK growth in Q4, leveraging existing assets and increased aircraft utilization, is anticipated to drive greater operating leverage and improved unit costs. The company also anticipates material growth in net cash flow from operating activities in 2027, potentially exceeding 30%, with CapEx remaining stable around $450 million.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.