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Affirm (AFRM) Q3 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q3 FY26)· Financials· May 7, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Affirm Q3 FY26 — Record quarter; Card base doubles to 4.4M, funding costs down ~125 bps

This was a Q&A-only call: Max Levchin gave only brief opening remarks before turning immediately to analyst questions, and management repeatedly deferred substantive detail (international markets, Card roadmap, Adaptive Checkout, engagement decomposition) to the May 12 Investor Forum. The through-line was compounding scale — a doubling Card base, +44% merchant growth, and a funding market management called 'exceptionally constructive' with oversubscribed deals and tightening spreads — framed as the payoff of years of consistent underwriting rather than a one-off. Forward stance is confident but reserved: management is incrementally more positive on Q4 growth in the updated guide, flags a top-3-merchant comp headwind through Q4 that eases into FY27, and declined to issue formal FY27 guidance. International expansion and a bank-charter application are early-stage optionality, not FY26 contributors, and management explicitly ruled out AI-related layoffs while touting near-NVIDIA revenue-per-employee efficiency.

Highlights

5
  • Active merchant count grew +44% YoY, accelerating beyond a strong Q2, led by large platform partners (PSPs, Shopify) and a new Intuit program

  • Affirm Card base roughly doubled to 4.4M cardholders with ~700,000 net adds in the quarter (~17% attach / ~20% of actives); Card is the fastest-growing and most profitable product, now billions of dollars of volume

  • Funding costs down ~125 bps YoY on tightening ABS spreads and lower benchmark rates; 3 securitizations executed YTD (2 revolving in the quarter, 1 static priced) with heavy oversubscription

  • Transactions per active growing above 20% and 90%+ of transactions come from returning users; RLTC margin running above long-term targets (Max: yield 'always over 4%')

  • Stable delinquencies with no consumer deterioration; elevated prepayments (tax-season) cited as a positive credit signal

Concerns

5
  • Allowance rate rose QoQ, driven by seasonality (lower post-holiday loan base) and elevated prepayments leaving delinquencies on a smaller base

  • Sunset of a top-3 merchant in Q1 FY26 creates a growth comp headwind of a few points that steps up from Q3 to Q4

  • 0% APR mix (fastest-growing Pay in X) carries a slightly lower RLTC margin than interest-bearing loans

  • New international product and go-to-market investment underway with a possible small RLTC drag as markets ramp (management expects the headwind to be minimal)

  • AI/agentic developer-tool spend now flows through the P&L (low single-digit millions per quarter, continuing into Q4; management calls it immaterial)

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Revenue / GMV growth
Incrementally more positive on the Q4 growth rate in the updated guide (no specific figure given)
high materiality
Medium
Forward growth outlook
Q4 growth rate not expected to be a ceiling as comps ease into fiscal '27
high materiality
Medium
Product volume growth
Pay in X (Pay in 4) to remain the fastest-growing segment into fiscal Q4
medium materiality
Medium
International expansion / operating leverage
Continued investment ahead of international launches; expect 'more of the same' operating leverage in FY27 (no formal FY27 guidance issued)
medium materiality
Low
Unit economics / RLTC margin
Possible small drag on revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) as new international markets ramp; headwinds expected to be minimal given US/Canada scale
low materiality
Medium
Operating expense
AI / developer-tool spend to continue into Q4 at low single-digit millions per quarter; not a material P&L impact
low materiality
Medium

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Affirm Card
Fastest-growing and most profitable product, grown organically without performance marketing and marketed only to the existing Affirm base. Now large enough to command more engineering/risk resources. Analyst referenced a medium-term target of $10B GMV and ~7.5M active Card users, which management did not confirm on this call.
Active cardholders: 4.4 million (~doubled)Attach rate: ~17% (~20% of actives)Volume: billions of dollarsCardholder spend: ~40% higher than average Affirm consumerCredit quality: slightly higher than average Affirm consumer
——~700,000 cardholder net adds (vs ~900,000 prior quarter)Most profitable product (qualitative)
Pay in X / Pay in 4 (short-term, largely 0% APR)
Growth expected to continue into fiscal Q4. Management is 'leaning into' 0% within the Affirm Card and views it as an ingredient that should be in every merchant's financing program.
Most Pay in 4/X volume from the Shopify programOne very large program moved to an evergreen 0% Pay in 4 offerLargest programs all utilize 0%
——Fastest-growing segmentSlightly lower RLTC margin than interest-bearing loans, but lower credit costs
Interest-bearing loans (core BNPL)
Positioned as the profitable complement to the 0% book; management emphasized durable, hard-won underwriting economics as the differentiator.
RLTC yield described as 'always over 4%'RLTC margin running above long-term targets
———Strong, profitable, high-growth; higher revenue content than 0%
Geography — US & Canada vs International
International expansion detail (specific markets) reserved for the May 12 Investor Forum; some investment already underway with a possible small RLTC drag as new markets ramp.
US & Canada: existing marketsInternational: launches pending, investment underway, not material to FY26
———US/Canada scale means international RLTC drag expected to be minimal

Product announcements

ProductTypeDetails
Affirm Checkout (Adaptive Checkout + Boost, packaged as one)update
'Big Nothing' promotional eventroadmap
Affirm app (shopping/discovery surface)roadmap
Bank charter application / consumer banking roadmaproadmap
International market expansionexpansion

Deals & partnerships

Sixth Street joint venture (forward-flow funding) Largest forward-flow counterparty (size not quantified)

Affirm's largest forward-flow counterparty is its JV with Sixth Street; funding is heavily weighted toward stable, permanent capital rather than liquid, volatility-prone vehicles.

Large pension funds and insurance complexes (unnamed) forward-flow / whole-loan buyers

Overwhelmingly not of the semi-liquid retail-vehicle type; built over the past three years, driving strong renewal and repeat rates.

Shopify platform / merchant program

Largest source of Pay in 4/Pay in X volume and a major driver of active-merchant growth.

Intuit merchant program (new)

Brand-new program described as scratching the surface of a very large merchant base.

Unnamed 'one very large program' merchant financing change

A very large program moved to an evergreen 0% Pay in 4 offer, contributing to Pay in X being the fastest-growing segment.

Unnamed top-3 merchant merchant relationship sunset

Prior-year comp difficulty from sunsetting a top-3 merchant in fiscal Q1; management does not view Q4 growth as a ceiling into FY27 as the comp eases.

Risks & headwinds

Prior-year growth comp from top-3 merchant sunset Through Q4 FY26; eases (same-store) in FY27

A few points of growth headwind; steps up from Q3 to Q4

Mitigation:Comp becomes a same-store comparison in FY27; management incrementally more positive on Q4 growth and says Q4 need not be a ceiling

0% APR mix dilutes RLTC margin Ongoing as 0% mix grows

0% loans 'slightly lighter' on an RLTC basis (unquantified)

Mitigation:0% carries lower credit costs; management views the trade favorably and is 'not fussed'

International expansion investment and ramp drag FY27 and beyond

Possible 'small drag' on RLTC as new markets ramp (unquantified); not material to FY26

Mitigation:Investment already underway; drag expected minimal given the scale of US/Canada businesses

Elevated / rising allowance rate Q3 FY26 (seasonal)

Allowance rate up QoQ (unquantified)

Mitigation:Attributed to seasonality and positive tax-season prepayments, not consumer deterioration

AI/developer-tool operating costs in P&L Q3 FY26, continuing into Q4

Low single-digit millions per quarter

Mitigation:Deemed immaterial and accretive to the bottom line via development-velocity gains

Competitive intensity in BNPL and broader consumer credit Ongoing

Unquantified

Mitigation:Scale, 15-year brand/no-late-fees trust, sophisticated AI underwriting (yield 'always over 4%'), capital-markets counterparty trust; 90%+ returning-user transactions; competitors have found underwriting harder than expected

Capital-markets / economic volatility affecting funding Ongoing

Unquantified ('economic volatility and headlines out there')

Mitigation:Short asset duration, deep and broadening investor base, oversubscribed deals, forward-flow partners weighted to permanent capital (pension/insurance/Sixth Street JV) rather than liquid vehicles

Regulatory / bank-charter timeline uncertainty Indeterminate

Unquantified; timeline 'may take a little time... may take a long time'

Mitigation:Bank-application process kept separate from product roadmap; ongoing dialogue with regulators; nothing to share yet

Q&A highlights

Any changes or slowdowns in credit/delinquencies, and any issues on the funding side amid private-credit concerns?

Max: no deterioration in the Affirm consumer they choose to underwrite, translating to a stable funding environment. Michael: the funding market is 'exceptionally constructive' — deep, with reducing spreads, oversubscribed deals, and forward-flow partners wanting larger allocations.

“The funding market broadly remains exceptionally constructive for us. We're kind of out of adjectives to describe just how great the execution has been.”

asked by Jinli (Cassie) Chan (on for Jason Kupferberg) · answered by Michael Linford

4 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Call format: brief remarks, everything deferred to the May 12 Investor Forum

Consistent with prior quarters, the call opened with only a short statement from CEO Max Levchin ('Fiscal Q3 was another one for the record books') before moving straight into Q&A; COO Michael Linford and CFO Rob O'Hare fielded most detail.

Management repeatedly declined to 'front-run' its 2026 Affirm Investor Forum, scheduled for Tuesday, May 12, 2:00–5:00 p.m. ET (public livecast plus replay). Topics explicitly held back for that event included international market specifics, the Affirm Card and banking roadmap, engagement/transactions-per-active decomposition, Adaptive Checkout metrics, and details behind the 'Big Nothing' promotional event.

Analysts should treat the light quantitative disclosure here as intentional, with the forum as the data-rich follow-up.

Credit and the funding market

Management reported stable delinquencies and no deterioration among the Affirm consumer base (explicitly not a comment on the broader U.S. consumer). The QoQ rise in the allowance rate was attributed to seasonality — the sequential downtick from holiday volumes in Q2 to a lower Q3 base — and to elevated prepayments during tax season, which reduce the loan balance and mechanically lift delinquencies off a smaller base while being framed as a positive credit signal.

Funding conditions were described as 'exceptionally constructive': three securitizations executed year-to-date (two revolving deals in the quarter plus a static deal priced but not yet closed), heavy oversubscription, and sustained spread tightening contributing to funding costs down roughly 125 bps YoY.

Forward-flow demand remained strong, with partners 'clamoring for a bigger allocation.'

Affirm Card scale and profile

The Card base roughly doubled to 4.4 million cardholders, adding about 700,000 in the quarter (down from ~900,000 the prior quarter), at roughly a 17% attach rate and about 20% of actives. Management reiterated the Card is the fastest-growing and most profitable product, now in the billions of dollars of volume, and stressed growth is 'natural' rather than fueled by performance marketing — Affirm does not pay to acquire users or mail cards, positioning the Card as the best mechanism to re-engage known, previously-transacted consumers.

Cardholders skew slightly higher credit quality (by design), transact more frequently, spend ~40% more than the average Affirm consumer (rising over time), and show broader, more even category usage than casual users who transact ~4–6 times per year. An analyst noted a medium-term target of $10B GMV and ~7.5M active Card users; management did not restate or confirm those figures on this call.

Product mix: Pay in X, 0% APR and Adaptive Checkout

Pay in X (Pay in 4) was called the fastest-growing segment, driven partly by one very large program moving to an evergreen 0% Pay in 4 offer, with most Pay in 4/X volume still originating from the Shopify program. 0% loans carry slightly lower RLTC margin but also lower credit costs; management's largest programs all now use 0%, and Affirm is leaning into 0% within the Card.

The lower loan-loss on purchase commitment as a percentage was attributed to 0% mix and term length (the discount rate applied to 0% loans), not to changed vendor economics. On Adaptive Checkout, management said it is now effectively sold together with Boost as a single offering ('Affirm Checkout'), is increasingly understood by merchants, and is trending toward an AI-optimized, always-on default — with specifics reserved for the forum.

AI in engineering, headcount stance and efficiency

Management highlighted a notable ramp in agentic-written code (roughly double the prior request volume), calling it 'unequivocally accretive to the bottom line' and citing a recent hackathon where the product team delivered dozens of shippable features. Rob quantified the associated developer-tool spend at low single-digit millions per quarter, continuing into Q4, and immaterial to the P&L.

Max flagged unique-to-Affirm checks and balances (no 'AI makes mistakes' fine print acceptable in underwriting), said the company believes it can '10x this productivity further,' and explicitly ruled out AI-related layoffs, noting revenue per employee already sits in 'NVIDIA territory' and headcount has grown little.

Competitive positioning and growth sustainability

Asked whether Q3's GMV strength is sustainable, management said there was nothing unusual or unnatural about the quarter and that Affirm remains 'really, really small' relative to total U.S. payment and e-commerce volume, leaving ample room to take share. Competitive differentiation was framed around 15 years of brand trust (no late fees, ever), deep and sophisticated AI-driven underwriting that competitors have found harder than expected, capital-markets counterparties that trust Affirm's asset, and a compounding network effect: more merchants increase consumer awareness and sign-ups, which drives Card adoption and higher transactions per active (growing above 20%), with 90%+ of transactions from returning users.

A bank-charter application is progressing with regulators on an uncertain timeline, kept separate from the consumer product roadmap.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.