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    ALK
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. ALK

    Jul 22, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Alaska Air Group Q2 FY26 — Strategic Milestones Achieved Amidst Fuel Headwinds

    Alaska Air Group navigated a challenging Q2 FY26, reporting a net loss driven by significant fuel headwinds, yet achieved critical strategic milestones including a complex technology integration and the launch of European service. Despite the financial setback, the company demonstrated strong operational performance and commercial momentum, with unit revenues strengthening and loyalty program engagement increasing. Management expresses confidence in a strong earnings inflection in the second half of the year, driven by easing fuel prices, disciplined cost execution, and robust demand, reinforcing its long-term EPS target.

    Highlights

    5
    • Revenue grew to $4.1 billion, a 10% increase year-over-year on capacity that grew 1%.

    • Unit revenues strengthened, with June total revenues up 13.2% and a double-digit pretax margin despite high fuel prices.

    • Led the industry in on-time performance year-to-date, up 5 points year-over-year in Q2.

    • Managed corporate share growth of 5 points in Portland (exceeding 50% share) and 4 points in San Diego.

    • Co-brand remuneration reached $663 million in the quarter, up 19% year-over-year, with active Atmos members up 15%.

    Concerns

    4
    • Reported a GAAP net loss of $76 million and an adjusted net loss of $102 million.

    • Experienced an overwhelming fuel headwind, with prices up nearly 70% year-over-year.

    • Hawaii unit revenue performance remained well under system due to historic rainstorms and elevated industry capacity, expecting a several point unit revenue headwind in Q3.

    • Closed the quarter with a debt to capitalization ratio of 65% and trailing 12-month adjusted net leverage of 4.8x due to fuel cost impact on earnings.

    Guidance & targets

    7
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Q3 Capacity Growth
    2% to 3%
    medium materiality
    High
    Full Year Capacity Growth
    around 2%
    high materiality
    High
    Q3 Fuel Price per Gallon
    $3.75
    high materiality
    High
    Q3 Earnings per Share
    breakeven and $1 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Second Half RASM to CASM ex Fuel Spread Improvement
    several points
    high materiality
    High
    Q3 System Unit Revenue Growth
    low double digits year-over-year
    high materiality
    High
    MAX 10 Certification
    relatively soon
    high materiality
    Medium

    Operational metrics

    58
    Adjusted Net Loss
    $102 million
    Q2 FY26

    Excluding special items.

    Total Revenue
    $4.1 billionup 10% YoY
    Q2 FY26
    Unit Revenue (RASM)
    8.6%up YoY
    Q2 FY26
    Total Revenue Growth
    13.2%up YoY
    June FY26
    Pretax Margin
    double-digit
    June FY26

    Achieved despite higher fuel prices.

    On-time Performance
    up 5 pointsYoY
    YTD Q2 FY26

    Led the industry.

    Guest Satisfaction (NPS)
    up 7 pointsQoQ
    Q2 FY26

    Led by Hawaii.

    Starlink Guest Satisfaction Premium
    20%higher than non-equipped
    Q2 FY26

    On Starlink-equipped flights compared to non-equipped.

    Atmos Account Sign-ups (non-members)
    nearly 75%
    Q2 FY26

    Of non-members on Starlink-equipped flights utilizing the benefit.

    Starlink Equipped Fleet
    1/3
    Q2 FY26
    Incremental Premium Seats
    1.3 million
    Q2 FY26

    Added from 737 cabin retrofits.

    Premium Revenue Growth
    15%up YoY
    Q2 FY26
    717 Fleet Retirement
    retire
    starting 2028

    Transitioning Neighbor Island flying to more modern, fuel-efficient Boeing 737s.

    737-800 Freighters Added
    4
    Q2 FY26 announcement

    Nearly doubling dedicated 737 freighter fleet to 9 aircraft.

    Dedicated 737 Freighter Fleet Size
    9
    Q2 FY26

    After adding 4 new freighters.

    New Freighter Service Start
    early 2027
    early 2027
    Atmos Members on New International Routes
    50% or more
    Q2 FY26
    Premium Semi Car Account Holders
    nearly 50% above expectation
    Q2 FY26
    Total Revenue Growth
    10%YoY
    Q2 FY26
    Unit Revenue (RASM) Growth
    8.6%up YoY
    Q2 FY26
    Unit Revenue (RASM) Growth
    5.5%YoY
    April FY26

    Part of sequential acceleration.

    Unit Revenue (RASM) Growth
    8.8%YoY
    May FY26

    Part of sequential acceleration.

    Unit Revenue (RASM) Growth
    11%YoY
    June FY26

    Part of sequential acceleration.

    Managed Corporate Share Growth
    5 points
    Q2 FY26
    Managed Corporate Share Growth
    4 points
    Q2 FY26
    Managed Corporate Passenger Volume Growth
    9%YoY
    Q2 FY26
    Co-brand Remuneration
    $663 millionup 19% YoY
    Q2 FY26
    Active Atmos Members Growth
    15%up YoY
    Q2 FY26
    Hawaii New Cardholders Growth
    73%up YoY
    Q2 FY26

    Outpacing system performance.

    Top-tier Loyalty Activity/Spend Growth
    double-digit
    Q2 FY26
    Redemption Activity Increase
    8 points
    Q2 FY26
    Premium Revenue as % of Total Revenue
    35%up 1.5 points QoQ
    Q2 FY26
    Revenue from Outside Main Cabin
    more than half
    Q2 FY26

    Mix looks nothing like the airline of a few years ago.

    Cargo Revenue Growth
    21%up YoY
    Q2 FY26
    Capacity Reduction
    roughly 1 point
    Q3 & Q4 FY26

    Pulled from original plan due to elevated fuel prices.

    Forward Corporate Bookings Growth
    37%up YoY
    Q3/Q4 FY26
    Hawaii Industry Capacity Growth
    7%up YoY
    Q2 FY26
    Q3 Revenue Booked
    65%
    Q3 FY26

    As of call date.

    Q4 Revenue Booked
    15%
    Q4 FY26

    As of call date.

    Total Liquidity
    $3.8 billion
    Q2 FY26

    After proactively raising $1 billion in financing.

    Financing Raised
    $1 billion
    Q2 FY26

    Proactively raised to bolster liquidity.

    Target Liquidity Range
    15% to 25%
    Long-term
    Debt to Capitalization Ratio
    65%
    Q2 FY26

    Impacted by fuel cost on earnings.

    Adjusted Net Leverage
    4.8x
    TTM Q2 FY26

    Trailing 12-month.

    Target Liquidity Level
    20%
    Long-term

    Intend to bring liquidity back toward this target.

    CASM-ex Growth
    6.5%rose YoY
    Q2 FY26
    Core Cost Growth (ex-fuel)
    low to mid-single digits
    Q2 FY26
    Nonfuel Unit Cost Growth
    low to mid-single digitsstep down
    H2 FY26

    Expected in the back half of the year.

    Economic Fuel Cost per Gallon
    $4.43vs $4.50 guide
    Q2 FY26

    Slightly better than guidance.

    Crude Oil Price Range
    $70 and $90
    Q2 FY26

    Remained volatile.

    Expected Fuel Cost per Gallon
    $3.60
    July FY26

    Part of Q3 fuel price guidance.

    Expected Fuel Cost per Gallon
    $3.85
    August & September FY26

    Part of Q3 fuel price guidance, reflecting recent average spot price.

    Spot Fuel Price per Gallon
    $3.85
    July 2026

    Last week's pricing.

    Spot Fuel Price per Gallon
    $3.08
    July 2026

    At the start of the month (less than 20 days ago).

    Net Loss
    almost $500 million
    H1 FY26
    Hawaii Premium Market Size
    $8 billion
    Current
    Managed Corporate Travel Revenue Growth
    over 40%up YoY
    July FY26
    Premium Credit Cards in Circulation
    3x expected
    Q2 FY26

    Industry KPIs

    8
    MetricValueDetails
    Fuel$4.43USD/gallon
    Casm ex6.5%%
    Capacity1%%
    Fleet mro737 cabin retrofits complete
    Unit revenue8.6%%
    Loyalty co brand$663 millionUSD
    Demand indicatorsdurable
    Premium diverse revenue mix35%%

    Product announcements

    4
    ProductTypeDetails
    Europe Servicelaunch
    717 Fleetdiscontinuation
    737-800 Freightersexpansion
    Premium Semi Carupdate

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    AmazonRestructured flying contract for cargo services.

    Moved into the next phase of growth, adding 4 additional 737-800 freighters.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Elevated Fuel PricesQ2 FY26

    up nearly 70% year-over-year

    Mitigation: Underlying business running well, Alaska Accelerate working, easing fuel prices expected in H2.

    Hawaii Weather ImpactQ2 FY26, extending into Q3

    3-point drag on unit revenues in Q2; summer revenue performance well under system

    Mitigation: Loads recovering, new bookings at system levels, demand returning to historical levels by fall.

    Excess Industry Capacity in HawaiiQ2 FY26, expected Q3

    industry capacity up 7% in Q2; contributing to unit revenue headwind

    Mitigation: Monitoring schedules, leveraging loyalty and network tools to outperform market.

    Increased LeverageQ2 FY26

    Debt to capitalization 65%, adjusted net leverage 4.8x

    Mitigation: Proactively raised $1B financing to bolster liquidity; intend to pay down debt and reduce leverage once fuel normalizes and earnings improve.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    Hawaii Unit Revenue Recovery

    Q3 FY26
    CurrentSummer revenue performance remains well under system
    Targetdemand returning to historical levels with September yields accelerating

    Why it matters

    Hawaii is a significant market for the company, and its recovery is crucial for overall revenue performance and profitability.

    Summer revenue performance remains well under system in part due to elevated industry capacity, which was up 7%, and we expect the third quarter to have a similar several point unit revenue headwind that we saw in the second quarter. But encouragingly, as we move into the fall, on-hand bookings, West Coast to Hawaii show demand returning to historical levels with September yields accelerating.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Asked about Q4 revenue/RASM expectations compared to Q3 and peers, and clarification on Hawaii's September improvement drivers (demand vs. capacity).

    Shane Tackett declined specific Q4 guidance but noted strong advanced bookings and no change in demand trends. Andrew Harrison explained Hawaii's recovery, noting incoming yields greater than system in September and expected recovery in coming quarters, despite elevated industry capacity.

    We don't see any change in demand into the fourth quarter. The advanced bookings look very strong at the same or better yields that we're seeing in the third quarter and that we saw at the end of the second quarter.

    asked by Atul Maheswari · answered by Shane Tackett

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Milestones and Integration Success

    Alaska Air Group successfully completed the most complex technology milestone of its integration by migrating to a single passenger service system (PSS) and establishing the industry's first dual-brand PSS platform. This was achieved while operating the largest summer schedule in company history and launching its first-ever service to Europe, which has exceeded expectations. These accomplishments are seen as strengthening the company's foundation and positioning it for long-term value.

    02

    Operational Excellence and Guest Experience

    The company led the industry in on-time performance year-to-date, with a 5-point year-over-year improvement in Q2. Net Promoter Scores continue to lead the industry, with guest satisfaction climbing 7 points since last quarter, and Hawaii satisfaction jumping 10 points. Starlink WiFi, now equipped on one-third of the fleet and expected to be on the remainder by 2027, is driving a 20% higher guest satisfaction on equipped flights and deepening loyalty with nearly 75% of non-members signing up for Atmos accounts.

    03

    Fleet Modernization and Cargo Expansion

    Cabin retrofits across the 737 fleet are complete, adding 1.3 million incremental first and premium class seats, with premium revenues up 15% in the quarter. The company announced plans to retire the 717 fleet starting in 2028, transitioning Neighbor Island flying to more fuel-efficient Boeing 737s. Additionally, four 737-800 freighters will be added, nearly doubling the dedicated freighter fleet to nine aircraft, strengthening its position as the only U.S. airline with a dedicated cargo fleet and expanding into Hawaii and Alaska.

    04

    Commercial Momentum and Loyalty Growth

    The second quarter marked the full commercial activation of Alaska Accelerate, leading to immediate improvements in commercial results. Unit revenues accelerated through the quarter, with June total revenues up 13.2% and a double-digit pretax margin. Co-brand remuneration grew 19% year-over-year to $663 million, and active Atmos members increased by 15%. Hawaii loyalty growth significantly outpaced system performance with a 73% uptick in new cardholders.

    05

    International Expansion and Premium Product Demand

    New long-haul international routes from Seattle to Rome, London, and Reykjavik are performing strongly, with 50% or more Atmos members on these routes, indicating strong loyalty demand. Premium revenues grew 15% this quarter and now represent 35% of total revenue, up 1.5 points. The company sees substantial opportunity to grow international share, with fair share in the premium cabin already improving.

    06

    Balance Sheet and Cost Management

    Despite the challenges, the balance sheet remains strong with $3.8 billion in total liquidity after proactively raising $1 billion in financing. Nonfuel unit costs rose 6.5% year-over-year, but core cost growth was low to mid-single digits excluding transitory📎 costs. The company expects nonfuel unit costs to step down to low to mid-single digits in the back half of the year and aims to aggressively pay down debt once the environment stabilizes and cash flows improve.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.