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    ALL
    Earnings call· Mar 2025(Q1 FY25)

    ALLSTATE Q1 FY25 earnings call ALL

    May 1, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Allstate Q1 FY25 — Strong Underwriting and Market Share Growth Momentum

    Allstate delivered strong Q1 FY25 results, driven by robust underwriting and expanding distribution channels that are beginning to reverse policy declines in Property-Liability. The company is focused on balancing profitable growth with effective capital management, while addressing elevated catastrophe losses through comprehensive reinsurance and improving customer retention through value-driven initiatives.

    Highlights

    5
    • Revenues increased 7.8% to $16.5 billion in Q1 FY25.

    • Adjusted net income reached $949 million, or $3.53 per diluted share, with a 23.7% adjusted net income return on equity over the last 12 months.

    • Property-Liability policies in force grew 0.1% overall, with homeowners policies up 2.5% year-over-year.

    • Auto new business applications increased 31.2% year-over-year, driven by all distribution channels.

    • Protection Services segment generated $162 million in adjusted net income over the past 12 months, a 7x increase since 2018.

    Concerns

    3
    • The Property-Liability combined ratio of 97.4% was 4.4 points above the prior year, primarily due to $3.3 billion in gross catastrophe losses.

    • Auto policies in force were down 0.4% year-over-year.

    • Retention remains a challenge, described as "down year-over-year" and "stabilized in the same zone" as prior quarters.

    Guidance & targets

    4
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Quarterly Dividend
    $1 per share
    medium materiality
    High
    Share Repurchase Program
    $1.5 billion
    high materiality
    High
    S.A.V.E. Program Customer Interactions
    25 million actions
    medium materiality
    High
    Reinsurance Program Placement
    Remainder of program to be placed
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Property-Liability
    Generated underwriting income despite higher catastrophe losses, partially offset by reinsurance recoveries, higher earned premiums, favorable prior year reserve reestimates, and favorable underlying loss trends.
    Combined Ratio: 97.4%Combined Ratio YoY Change: 4.4 points above prior year
    $16.5 billion7.8%$360 million underwriting income
    Auto Insurance
    Average earned premium increases outpaced losses due to favorable physical damage loss cost trends. Direct channel generated the most new business volume.
    Policies in Force: 25.1 millionNew Business Applications YoY Growth: 31.2%
    -0.4%91.3% combined ratio
    Homeowners Insurance
    Continued to grow policies in force and new business. Exclusive agents bundle at historically high rates (around 80%). Viewed as a growth opportunity.
    Policies in Force: 7.5 millionNew Business Growth: 10%Underlying Combined Ratio (ex-cat/PYD): low 60s
    2.5%91.5% 10-year recorded combined ratio
    Protection Services
    Largest business is Allstate Protection Plans (acquired SquareTrade in 2017 for $1.4 billion). Has grown customer base over 4x since acquisition and secured distribution partnerships with major retailers.
    Adjusted Net Income Growth (since 2018): 7xCustomers: 162 millionCountries: 18
    $162 million adjusted net income (past 12 months)

    Operational metrics

    20
    Adjusted Net Income
    $949 million
    Q1 FY25

    Company-wide adjusted net income for the quarter.

    Adjusted EPS
    $3.53
    Q1 FY25

    Adjusted net income per diluted share.

    Adjusted Net Income Return on Equity
    23.7%
    LTM

    Adjusted net income return on equity over the last 12 months.

    Adjusted Expense Ratio Improvement
    6.7 points
    since 2018

    Improvement in the adjusted expense ratio, excluding advertising costs, since 2018.

    Personalized New Business Items
    2.8 million27% increase over prior year
    Q1 FY25

    New business items across all channels.

    S.A.V.E. Program Actions Goal
    25 millionbuilds on last year's success (over 20 million)
    FY25

    Goal for improving customer interactions through the S.A.V.E. program.

    Property-Liability Policies in Force Sequential Growth
    0.5 pointover the end of 2024
    Q1 FY25

    Sequential growth in Property-Liability policies in force.

    Reinsurance Recoveries
    $1.1 billion
    Q1 FY25

    Recoveries primarily due to California wildfires and aggregate catastrophe losses from events over $50 million.

    Aggregate Catastrophe Losses Threshold for Recoveries
    $50 million
    past 12 months

    Threshold for events contributing to aggregate catastrophe loss recoveries.

    California Wildfire Fund
    $15 billion
    current

    Fund established by utilities in California for wildfire-related claims, with additional capacity beyond this amount.

    Holding Company Capital
    $3 billion
    Q1 FY25

    Capital held at the holding company at the end of the first quarter.

    Share Repurchase Program Executed
    $100 millionout of $1.5 billion program
    Q1 FY25

    Amount of stock repurchased during the quarter.

    Homeowners Bundling Rate (New Business)
    ~80%historically high rates
    current

    Bundling rate for new homeowners business produced by exclusive agents.

    Investment Portfolio Income-Generating Assets
    >81%
    current

    Percentage of the investment portfolio in income-generating assets.

    SquareTrade Acquisition Value
    $1.4 billion
    2017

    Acquisition cost of SquareTrade, which became Allstate Protection Plans.

    Protection Services Customers
    162 milliongrown over 4x since acquisition
    current

    Total customer base for Allstate Protection Plans across 18 countries.

    Protection Services Countries
    18
    current

    Number of countries where Allstate Protection Plans operates.

    Florida Homeowners Market Share (Historical)
    13% to 2%
    historical

    Historical decline in homeowners market share in Florida.

    California Auto Rate Approval
    6.9%
    May

    Approved rate increase for auto insurance in California, to be implemented in May.

    Used Car Prices Increase (Pandemic)
    60%
    <2 years

    Increase in used car prices during the pandemic period.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Combined ratio97.4%%
    Capital returns$1.5 billion share repurchase program; $1.00 per share quarterly dividendUSD
    ROE operating ROE23.7%%
    Catastrophe losses$3.3 billionUSD
    Retention persistencydown year-over-year, stabilized
    Statutory regulatory capitalstrong capital position
    Prior year reserve developmentfavorable

    Product announcements

    3
    ProductTypeDetails
    Allstate branded Affordable, Simple, Connected auto insuranceexpansion
    Allstate branded Affordable, Simple, Connected homeowners productexpansion
    Differentiated Custom 360 middle market standard and preferred auto for independent agentsexpansion

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    UndisclosedSale of an Employee Voluntary Benefits business$2 billion

    This sale was not included in Q1 results as it closed shortly after quarter-end. It is the first of two large sales from that business segment.

    SquareTradeAcquisition of product warranty business$1.4 billion

    SquareTrade was acquired in 2017 and is now the largest business in the Protection Services segment, operating as Allstate Protection Plans.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Elevated Catastrophe LossesQ1 FY25

    $3.3 billion gross catastrophe losses in Q1 FY25, impacting combined ratio by 4.4 points.

    Mitigation: Comprehensive reinsurance program provided $1.1 billion in recoveries; industry-leading homeowners capabilities; proactive risk management.

    Auto Policies in Force DeclineQ1 FY25

    Down 0.4% year-over-year.

    Mitigation: Expanded distribution channels, increased new business applications (+31.2% YoY), S.A.V.E. program to improve retention.

    Retention ChallengesQ1 FY25

    Down year-over-year, stabilized in the same zone as past couple of quarters.

    Mitigation: S.A.V.E. program targeting 25 million customer interactions to improve affordability and experience; increased bundling; more stable rate environment.

    Potential Tariffs Impact on Loss CostsUnclear when actual impact will be

    Expect increases in auto repair and replacement costs, with analyst estimate of mid-single-digit severity increase.

    Mitigation: Will manage through impacts, raise prices if needed (given thin margins), leverage cost reduction efforts, hopeful for tort reform (e.g., Georgia).

    What to watch in Q2 FY25

    5

    Reinsurance Program Placement

    Q2 FY25
    CurrentBulk of national program placed.
    TargetRemainder of program placed.

    Why it matters

    Completes the annual reinsurance program, impacting capital requirements and catastrophe loss tail risk.

    We'll announce the remainder of the program that gets placed in Q2 at the end of next quarter.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Are companies getting more aggressive on pricing due to favorable frequency, or is the market still rational?

    Management believes the market is rational, with a reduction in the rate of auto insurance increases. While some competitors are catching up on price, the industry aims for profitable growth, not volume chasing through rate reductions. Allstate's new business volume (2.8M items) indicates its ability to grow in this market.

    I don't see us moving into an aggressive rate reduction, particularly when you look going forward and the possible impact of tariffs.

    asked by Jamminder Bhullar · answered by Thomas Wilson

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Transformative Growth Strategy and Expense Management

    Allstate's transformative growth strategy aims to increase personal property-liability market share and expand protection services. A key component is lowering costs, with the adjusted expense ratio improving by 6.7 points since 2018. This cost reduction enables more competitive pricing without impacting margins. New Allstate branded auto insurance is now available in 36 states, and a companion homeowners product in 6 states, alongside differentiated Custom 360 auto products for independent agents in 31 states.

    02

    Distribution Expansion and New Business Momentum

    The company has significantly expanded customer access across exclusive agent, direct, and independent agent channels, with the National General acquisition bolstering independent agent capabilities. This led to 2.8 million personalized new business items in Q1 FY25, a 27% increase over the prior year. This strong new business, combined with efforts to improve retention, is driving market share growth, with Property-Liability policies in force no longer declining year-over-year and showing sequential growth of 0.5%.

    03

    Property-Liability Underwriting Performance and Catastrophe Impact

    The Property-Liability business generated $360 million of underwriting income in Q1 FY25, despite a combined ratio of 97.4%, which was 4.4 points higher than the prior year. This was primarily due to $3.3 billion in gross catastrophe losses, significantly higher than last year, driven by California wildfires and severe weather. Reinsurance recoveries of $1.1 billion, mainly from the wildfires and aggregate losses over $50 million, partially offset these losses. The auto combined ratio was 91.3%, and the underlying homeowners combined ratio remained in the targeted low 60s.

    04

    Proactive Investment Management

    Allstate's investment portfolio is designed for resiliency and supports enterprise risk and return objectives. It is well-diversified, with 85% in publicly traded securities, allowing for dynamic adjustments. Proactive management, including reducing public equity exposure and adjusting fixed income duration in late 2021, helped preserve capital and capture higher market yields. Over 81% of the portfolio is in income-generating assets, positioning it well against market uncertainties.

    05

    Growth in Protection Services Segment

    The Protection Services segment provides additional growth platforms, offering product warranties, identity protection, and roadside assistance through strategic partnerships. Allstate Protection Plans, acquired in 2017 for $1.4 billion, is the largest business in this segment. It has grown its customer base over 4x to 162 million customers across 18 countries and generated $162 million in adjusted net income over the past 12 months, a 7x increase since 2018.

    06

    Capital Management and Shareholder Returns

    Allstate maintains a strong capital position, with approximately $3 billion at the holding company at quarter-end, supported by a sophisticated economic capital framework that includes a stress layer for market volatility🌐. The company increased its quarterly dividend to $1 per share and instituted a $1.5 billion share repurchase program, having executed $100 million in Q1 FY25. Management emphasized a consistent presence in the market for repurchases.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.