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    ALL
    Earnings call· Sep 2025(Q3 FY25)

    ALLSTATE CORP ALL

    Nov 6, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Allstate Q3 FY25 — Strong Underwriting Profit and Investment Income Drive 34.7% LTM ROE

    Allstate delivered robust Q3 FY25 results, driven by strong Property-Liability underwriting, higher investment income, and effective capital management, leading to a 34.7% LTM ROE. The company continues to execute its Transformative Growth strategy, leveraging AI and expanded distribution to drive profitable policy growth and market share gains, while proactively managing its investment portfolio and capital allocation.

    Highlights

    5
    • Adjusted net income of $3 billion or $11.17 per share in Q3 FY25, reflecting strong Property-Liability underwriting and higher investment income.

    • Return on equity for the last 12 months reached 34.7%.

    • Total revenues increased to $17.3 billion in Q3 FY25, with Property-Liability premiums up 6.1% and Protection Services premiums up 12.7%.

    • Policies in force grew to $209.5 million, an increase of 3.8% compared to the prior year quarter, driven by active brands.

    • New business in auto insurance increased 26.2% year-to-date 2025 compared to 2024, capturing a higher proportion of shoppers.

    Concerns

    4
    • Protection Plans adjusted net income decreased by $5 million in Q3 FY25 compared to prior year due to increased claims.

    • Auto insurance shopping activity across the industry increased 9.3% year-to-date 2025, driven by higher advertising and industry-wide rate increases.

    • Growth in nonstandard auto insurance negatively impacts overall retention, despite being economically attractive.

    • New York and New Jersey remain a drag on overall policy counts, though profitability has been restored.

    Guidance & targets

    4
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Auto Combined Ratio
    mid-90s
    high materiality
    High
    Homeowners Reported Combined Ratio
    low 90s
    high materiality
    High
    Homeowners Underlying Combined Ratio
    low to mid-60s
    high materiality
    High
    Auto Combined Ratio (2026 Outlook)
    mid-90s
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Property-Liability
    Strong performance driven by higher average premiums and policy in force growth. Transformative Growth initiative is increasing profitable growth. Premiums were up 7.4% YTD FY25.
    Policies in force: $209.5 million (+3.8% YoY)Auto policies in force (active brands): +2.8% YoYHomeowners policies in force (active brands): +3% YoY
    $17.3 billion+6.1%
    Protection Services
    Profitably grew, led by protection plans. Q3 adjusted net income decreased $5 million YoY due to increased claims, but YTD earnings increased 8%. Income for the last 12 months was $211 million.
    Policies in force: 171 million (+4.4% YoY)Revenues (Protection Plans): +15% YoYDomestic revenue (Protection Plans): +10% YoYInternational revenue (Protection Plans): +32% YoY
    $3.3 billion+12.7%$34 million
    National General (Auto)
    Continued strong growth in the nonstandard auto insurance market through independent agent and direct channels.
    +12%
    Direct Auto
    Continued strong growth in the nonstandard auto insurance market.
    +22.9%

    Operational metrics

    17
    Adjusted Net Income
    $3 billion
    Q3 FY25

    Reflecting strong Property-Liability underwriting profit and higher investment income.

    Adjusted Net Income Return on Equity
    34.7%
    LTM

    Over the last 12 months.

    Net Investment Income
    $949 million+21.2% YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Increased over the prior year quarter.

    Net Investment Income per Share
    $10up from <$9 in 2021
    LTM

    Reflects benefits from asset growth and higher yields.

    Expense Ratio Reduction
    6.7 points
    Cumulative

    Achieved through the Transformative Growth initiative, allowing for more value without impacting margins.

    Auto Insurance New Business Growth
    +26.2%vs YTD FY24
    YTD FY25

    Allstate is capturing a higher proportion of shoppers in a high shopping environment.

    Industry Auto Shopping Activity
    +9.3%vs YTD FY24
    YTD FY25

    Driven by higher advertising and industry-wide rate increases in 2022 and 2023.

    GAAP Shareholders' Equity
    $27.5 billionup from $21.4 billion at YE 2024
    Q3 FY25

    Strengthened by strong income, gains on asset sales, and unrealized net capital gains on investments.

    Capital Returned to Shareholders
    $1.6 billion
    YTD FY25

    Through common shareholder dividends and share repurchases.

    Capital Returned to Shareholders
    $1.8 billion3.5% of average market value of common equity
    LTM

    Over the last 12 months.

    Capital Returned to Shareholders
    $11.5 billionapproximately 22% of common outstanding shares
    Last 5 years

    Total capital returned to shareholders over the last 5 years.

    Investment Portfolio Book Value Growth
    +39%$23 billion increase
    Since Q1 2021

    Reflects asset growth, in part due to a large increase in average auto and homeowners insurance.

    SAVE Program Premium Reduction
    >5%
    Ongoing

    Program helps customers reduce their premiums by tailoring coverage and finding discounts.

    AI Coding Contribution
    15%
    Current

    Percentage of coding done by AI, contributing to efficiency.

    Allstate Agent Count
    6,000down from >10,000 at start of Transformative Growth
    Current

    Despite reduction in agent count, more business is being written, indicating increased productivity.

    New York & New Jersey Rate Impact
    0.6 points
    Q3 FY25

    Impact from rates implemented in Q3 that were approved earlier in the year.

    Policies in force
    209.5 million+3.8% YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Total policies in force across all businesses.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Combined ratiomid-90s (Auto target); low 90s (Homeowners reported target); low to mid-60s (Homeowners underlying target)%
    Capital returns$1.8 billionUSD
    ROE operating ROE34.7%%
    Net investment income$949 millionUSD
    Retention persistency
    Net premiums written earned

    Product announcements

    2
    ProductTypeDetails
    National General Custom360launch
    Affordable, Simple and Connected (ASC) productslaunch

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Increased Claims in Protection PlansQ3 FY25

    $5 million decrease in adjusted net income in Q3 FY25

    High Auto Insurance Shopping EnvironmentYTD FY25

    Industry shopping activity increased 9.3% YTD FY25

    Mitigation: Allstate is capturing a higher proportion of shoppers with new business increasing 26.2% YTD FY25; focusing on lowering prices, SAVE program, and new ASC products to improve retention.

    Negative Impact of Nonstandard Auto on Overall RetentionOngoing

    Market share gains in nonstandard auto insurance has a negative impact on overall retention

    Mitigation: Policies are economically attractive despite shorter life; focusing on improving retention for all customers through SAVE program and ASC products.

    New York and New Jersey Regulatory EnvironmentOngoing

    Still a drag on overall policy counts

    Mitigation: Company is profitable in both states with existing products, writing some new business, and working with regulators to get ASC product approved for full re-entry.

    Inflationary PressuresOngoing

    Impacts cost to fix cars, bodily injury costs, operating expenses, and investment portfolio

    Mitigation: Proactive investment portfolio management (duration adjustments, equity holdings adjustments); advocating for tort reform (e.g., Florida) to reduce bodily injury costs.

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    Auto Combined Ratio

    Next quarter
    CurrentMid-90s (target)
    TargetMaintain mid-90s

    Why it matters

    Ensuring underwriting profitability in a competitive market.

    As we think about 2026, what I'll tell you is we'll respond accordingly to whatever the trends are. That means they continue to be benign and book doesn't mean rate, then we won't take rate. But to the extent we see loss costs pick up, we're going to stay out ahead of it and target that mid-90s combined ratio that we've been able to achieve over the last decade.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    How is Allstate thinking about holding company liquidity and the speed of deploying deployable assets, given significant capital generation?

    Management prefers holding company liquidity for flexibility (reinvestment, share repurchases, M&A) and confirms adequate capital in insurance entities. They prioritize growing the Property-Liability business, then investment returns, M&A, and finally dividends/buybacks, noting the current share repurchase program is ongoing.

    As it relates to the holding company, we leave -- we put as much money as we can into the holding company because it's flexible. We can put it back into the insurance company if we want, we can use it for share repurchases. We use it to buy a company. We can use it to do a variety of different things.

    asked by Robert Cox · answered by Thomas Wilson

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Transformative Growth Initiative Progress

    Allstate's 6-year-old Transformative Growth initiative is currently in Phase 4, focusing on rolling out a new system to enhance Property-Liability market share. This strategy has led to a 6.7-point reduction in the expense ratio, expanded distribution channels (auto new business is now evenly split across Allstate agents, independent agents, and direct channels), and improved customer service, with over 46 million customer interactions enhanced this year. The SAVE program has helped over 5 million customers reduce their premiums by more than 5%.

    02

    AI Strategy and ALLIE Development

    The company's new technology ecosystem is enabling advanced artificial intelligence applications. Generative AI is currently improving operational efficiency, such as simplifying billing explanations, generating/reviewing 15% of claims adjustor emails, and contributing to 15% of coding. Allstate is developing ALLIE (Large Language Intelligent Ecosystem) to leverage Agentic AI, aiming to reimagine the entire business model for lower costs and improved customer experience across offerings, service, communications, growth investments, and claims settlement.

    03

    Proactive Investment Portfolio Management

    Allstate actively manages its investment portfolio to generate shareholder value, with the portfolio's book value increasing by 39% or $23 billion since Q1 2021. Investment decisions are made considering enterprise factors and market conditions. For example, duration was reduced in 2022 when the Property-Liability combined ratio was elevated, and subsequently increased in 2023-2024 to capture higher yields. Equity holdings were also adjusted in response to inflation outlooks, demonstrating a flexible approach to risk and return.

    04

    Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

    GAAP shareholders' equity grew to $27.5 billion by Q3 2025, up from $21.4 billion at year-end 2024, driven by strong income, gains on asset sales, and unrealized capital gains. Allstate returned $1.6 billion to shareholders year-to-date (GAAP) and $1.8 billion over the last 12 months through dividends and share repurchases. The company prioritizes capital deployment towards growing its Property-Liability business, followed by investment portfolio returns, strategic M&A, and then direct capital returns to shareholders.

    05

    Auto Insurance Market and Pricing Dynamics

    The auto insurance market remains highly competitive, with industry shopping activity increasing 9.3% year-to-date. Allstate's auto book is considered broadly rate adequate, requiring minimal rate increases outside of specific states like New York and New Jersey, where a 0.6-point impact was seen in Q3 from prior approvals. Management is committed to maintaining a mid-90s combined ratio target by proactively adjusting pricing based on loss trends and focusing on improving customer retention through programs like SAVE and the rollout of new ASC products.

    06

    Impact of Florida Tort Reform

    Management commended Florida's political leadership for implementing tort reform aimed at reducing lawsuits related to fender bender accidents. This initiative is expected to save Florida consumers billions of dollars annually by lowering bodily injury costs. Allstate views this as a significant opportunity for other states to follow suit, with Georgia recently adopting similar reforms, to help consumers mitigate the impact of increased inflation.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.