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    ALL
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    ALLSTATE Q4 FY24 earnings call ALL

    Feb 6, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Allstate Q4 FY24 — Strong Underwriting & Investment Results Drive 26.8% Adjusted ROE

    Allstate delivered strong Q4 FY24 results, driven by excellent underwriting and investment performance, achieving a 26.8% adjusted ROE. The company is strategically focused on increasing Property-Liability market share, expanding protection offerings, and divesting non-core businesses, with a particular emphasis on restoring auto unit growth and leveraging its homeowners' business strength.

    Highlights

    5
    • Total revenues increased 11.3% to $16.5 billion in Q4 FY24.

    • Adjusted net income return on equity was 26.8% over the last 12 months.

    • Property-Liability underwriting income improved by $507 million to $1.8 billion in Q4 FY24.

    • Auto insurance recorded combined ratio of 93.5% in Q4 FY24, a 5.4 point improvement YoY.

    • Homeowners insurance policies in force increased by 2.4%, driven by strong retention and a 20.5% increase in new business.

    Concerns

    3
    • California wildfires gross losses estimated at $2 billion, with net losses of $1.1 billion after reinsurance.

    • Auto insurance policies in force declined by 1.4% due to lower customer retention.

    • Health and Benefits segment adjusted net income decreased by $25 million YoY to $35 million in Q3 FY24 due to increased benefit utilization.

    Guidance & targets

    1
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Property-Liability Policies in Force
    Grow
    high materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    5
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Property-Liability
    Underwriting income improved by $507 million compared to the prior year quarter. Strong margins delivered during the quarter.
    Recorded combined ratio: 86.9% (2.6 point improvement YoY)
    $1.8 billion
    Auto Insurance
    Reflecting the successful execution of the profit improvement plan, restoring profitability to target levels (mid-90s). Underwriting income improved by $510 million compared to the prior year quarter.
    Recorded combined ratio: 93.5% (5.4 points below prior year quarter)Adjusted quarterly combined ratio: 95% (after 1.5 points benefit from prior quarters' claim severity estimate adjustment)
    $603 million
    Homeowners Insurance
    Strong returns, in line with low 90s target for FY24. Combined ratio for 2024 improved by 16.7 points, primarily due to lower catastrophe losses and strong underlying loss performance. 10-year recorded combined ratio of 92% compares favorably to industry's 103% underwriting loss.
    Recorded combined ratio (Q4): better than low 90s targetRecorded combined ratio (FY24): 90.1%Policies in force growth: 2.4%New business increase: 20.5%
    15.3%$1.1 billion
    Protection Plans
    Profitable growth driven by domestic and international expansion, broadened distribution, and protection offerings. Recent acquisition of Kingfisher enhances mobile phone protection capabilities. Adjusted net income for the full year was $157 million.
    Policies: approximately 160 million (added 60 million since 2019)Revenue (FY24): nearly $2 billion (23.9% annual compounded growth since 2019)
    $528 million20.3%$37 million
    Health and Benefits
    Growth partially offset by a modest decrease in employer voluntary benefits. Profitability impacted by increased benefit utilization across all three businesses. Underwriting and rate actions are being taken to restore margins. Adjusted net income for Individual Health was $30 million for FY24.
    Premium and contract charges increase: $15 million YoYIndividual Health premium and contract charges growth: 8.4%Group Health premium and contract charges growth: 9.8%
    3.2%$35 million

    Operational metrics

    42
    Adjusted Net Income Return on Equity
    26.8%
    LTM

    Excellent underwriting and investment results.

    Property-Liability Earned Premiums Growth
    10.6%YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Strong growth in earned premiums.

    Net Investment Income
    $727 millionup 37.9% YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Reflecting a higher fixed income yield and increased assets under management.

    Fixed Income Earned Yield
    4.4%up 40 bps YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Steadily increased as portfolio repositioned into higher-yielding, longer-duration assets.

    Performance-Based Income
    $167 millionup $107 million YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Reflecting higher private equity and real estate investment results. Expected volatility quarter-to-quarter.

    Public Equity Holdings
    $3.3 billionincreased by $2.4 billion in Q4
    Q4 FY24

    Part of the total portfolio.

    Fixed Income Duration
    5.3 yearsin line with prior year quarter, up from 4.8 years at end of last year
    Q4 FY24

    Managed as part of asset allocation strategy.

    Adjusted Expense Ratio Improvement (ex-advertising)
    almost 5 points
    since 2019

    Achieved through elimination of work outsourcing, digitizing activity, less real estate, and lower distribution expenses.

    New Business Policies
    9.7 million items76% higher than 2019
    FY24

    Significant contributions from each distribution channel.

    Policies in Force (Total Property-Liability)
    37.5 millionincreased from 237.3 million in 2019
    Q4 FY24

    Despite negative impact of post-pandemic price increases. Auto is the largest at 24.9 million, homeowners represents approximately 20% of policies in force.

    Auto Policies in Force Growth
    -1.4%YoY decline
    Q4 FY24

    Decline in customer retention, particularly in states with large recent rate increases, more than offset a nearly 30% increase in new business applications.

    Auto New Business Applications Increase
    nearly 30%increase
    Q4 FY24

    Contributed to new business momentum.

    Homeowners Policies in Force Increase
    173,0002.4% increase
    Q4 FY24

    Driven by strong retention and a 20.5% increase in new business.

    Homeowners New Business Increase
    20.5%increase
    Q4 FY24

    Contributed to homeowners PIF growth.

    California Homeowners Market Share Reduction
    over 50%
    since 2007

    Decision to reduce California exposure due to risk management.

    California Wildfires Gross Losses
    $2 billion
    Q1 FY25 impact

    Estimated, includes loss adjustment expenses and estimated California fair plan assessment.

    California Wildfires Reinsurance Recoveries
    $900 million
    Q1 FY25 impact

    Net of reinstatement premiums, reducing net loss.

    California Wildfires Net Loss
    $1.1 billion
    Q1 FY25 impact

    After reinsurance recoveries, to be reflected in Q1 FY25 earnings.

    California Wildfires Net Loss Sensitivity
    $10 million
    per $100 million gross loss

    For every $100 million in gross losses above the $1 billion reinsurance attachment point.

    Health and Benefits Premium and Contract Charges Growth
    3.2%YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Growth in Individual and Group Health partially offset by decrease in employer voluntary benefits.

    Individual Health Premium and Contract Charges Growth
    8.4%YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Strong growth.

    Group Health Premium and Contract Charges Growth
    9.8%YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Strong growth.

    Health and Benefits Adjusted Net Income
    $35 milliondown $25 million YoY
    Q3 FY24

    Impacted by increased benefit utilization across all three businesses.

    Individual Health Adjusted Net Income
    $30 million
    FY24

    Options for this business are being evaluated.

    Combined Proceeds from Divestitures
    $3.25 billion
    expected

    From the sale of employer voluntary benefits and group health businesses.

    Expected Book Gain from Divestitures
    $1 billion
    expected

    From the sale of employer voluntary benefits and group health businesses.

    Adjusted Net Income ROE Impact from Divestitures
    decrease of about 180 basis points
    trailing 12 months

    Due to lower income and higher equity resulting from gains on sale.

    National General Original Purchase Price
    $4 billion
    January 2021

    Acquisition price.

    Dividends from National General Statutory Entities
    $1 billion
    cumulative

    Received since acquisition.

    National General Net Purchase Price Reduction
    $1.75 billionreduced from $4 billion to $1.75 billion (less than half)
    current estimate

    Combined proceeds from divestiture and dividends received.

    SquareTrade Acquisition Price
    $1.4 billion
    acquisition

    Original purchase price.

    SquareTrade Annual Earnings
    $150 million
    annual

    Current earnings, business is substantially bigger.

    SquareTrade Dividends Received
    about half
    since acquisition

    Received in dividends based on earnings, while also investing in growth.

    Total Stock Repurchased
    $41.5 billion
    since IPO

    Commitment to repurchases.

    Stock Repurchased
    $17.5 billion
    last 10 years

    Significant repurchases.

    Stock Repurchased
    $7.8 billion
    last 5 years

    Significant repurchases.

    Preferred Stock Rate
    4.75%
    current

    One of three different issuances.

    Preferred Stock Rate
    7.375%
    current

    One of three different issuances.

    Preferred Stock Rate
    5.1%
    current

    One of three different issuances.

    Profitable Premiums
    64%
    Q1 FY24

    Percentage of total premiums that were profitable.

    Premiums Growing
    60%
    current

    Percentage of total premiums that are now growing.

    Industry Combined Ratio
    103%
    past 10 years

    Industry experienced an underwriting loss over the same period Allstate's homeowners business had a 92% combined ratio.

    Industry KPIs

    8
    MetricValueDetails
    Combined ratio86.9%%
    Capital returns$41.5 billionUSD
    ROE operating ROE26.8%%
    Catastrophe losses$2 billionUSD
    Net investment income$727 millionUSD
    Retention persistency
    Net premiums written earned
    Prior year reserve development1.5 pointspoints

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    StanCorp FinancialSale of employer voluntary benefit business.$2 billion

    Decision based on greater strategic value to other companies.

    NationwideSale of Group Health business.$1.25 billion

    Business was part of National General acquisition.

    KingfisherAcquisition to enhance mobile phone protection capabilities.

    Part of continued investment in the Protection Plans business.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    California WildfiresReflected in Q1 FY25 earnings.

    Gross losses estimated at $2 billion, net loss of $1.1 billion after $900 million reinsurance recoveries.

    Mitigation: Allstate reduced California homeowners market share by over 50% since 2007; comprehensive risk and return approach; seeking regulatory changes for sustainable market.

    Auto Insurance Policies in Force DeclineQ4 FY24

    Declined by 1.4% YoY in Q4 FY24.

    Mitigation: Proactively contacting customers to lower protection costs, rolling out new affordable products, investing in marketing, leveraging broad distribution.

    Increased Benefit Utilization in Health and BenefitsQ3 FY24

    Adjusted net income for the segment was $35 million in Q3 FY24, $25 million lower than prior year.

    Mitigation: Underwriting and rate actions being taken to quickly address benefit ratio trends and restore margins.

    Retention Impact from Price IncreasesPast several years, ongoing in some states (NY, NJ).

    Auto retention "taken a hit" due to over 40% price increases over several years.

    Mitigation: Auto margins are back to target, expecting less price increases going forward. Proactive "SAVE" program to help customers with discounts and appropriate coverage.

    Competitive Auto MarketOngoing.

    Not quantified, but acknowledged as "competitive" with other major carriers.

    Mitigation: Capabilities to compete and grow, leveraging new products, telematics, and distribution.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    Property-Liability Policies in Force (PIF)

    FY25, with monthly disclosures starting soon.
    CurrentTotal PL PIF 37.5 million; Auto PIF declined 1.4% YoY in Q4 FY24.
    TargetGrowth in total Property-Liability PIF.

    Why it matters

    Management has shifted focus to PIF growth as the key unlock for shareholder value, especially for auto. Monthly disclosures will provide real-time tracking.

    Our objective in 2025 is to grow property liability policies in force by both improving customer retention, and continuing strong new business sales.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Inquired about the decision to ramp up advertising in Q4, efficiency measures, and comparison to historical performance.

    Management is comfortable with advertising spend, adjusts it quarterly, and uses state-of-the-art analytics including allowable acquisition cost measures and lifetime value. They believe their analytics are contemporary, if not industry-leading.

    I can assure you we have a state-of-the-art analytics on that. We -- it's everything, every kind of lead we bid on leads automatically. We -- just to make sure we were good last year, we had a number of outside people come in and look at our analytics and we appear to be at least contemporary, if not industry-leading some of these are people you're buying ads from, so they're not going to come tell you stupid.

    asked by Robert Cox · answered by Thomas Wilson

    2 min read8 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Overview and Transformative Growth

    Allstate's strategy focuses on increasing personal property-liability market share and expanding protection offerings. The "Transformative Growth" initiative, launched in 2019, has significantly improved the adjusted expense ratio (excluding advertising) by almost 5 points, enabling more competitive pricing. New auto insurance products are now available in 31 states, and new homeowners products are in 4 states, enhancing product differentiation.

    02

    Distribution Channel Expansion

    The company has expanded customer access through improved Allstate agent productivity, enhanced direct sales capabilities, and increased independent agent distribution via the National General acquisition. New business policies reached 9.7 million items in 2024, representing a 76% increase from 2019, with significant contributions from all distribution channels.

    03

    Auto Insurance Profitability and Growth

    Auto insurance achieved $603 million in underwriting income in Q4 FY24, with a recorded combined ratio of 93.5%, a 5.4 point improvement year-over-year, reaching target profitability levels. While overall auto policies in force declined 1.4% in Q4 FY24, new business applications increased by nearly 30%, and policies in force grew in 31 states, representing 60% of countrywide written premium.

    04

    Homeowners Insurance Strength

    Homeowners insurance delivered strong results with $1.1 billion in underwriting income in Q4 FY24 and a full-year combined ratio of 90.1%, in line with the low 90s target. Written premium grew 15.3% in Q4 FY24, and policies in force increased by 2.4%. The business has maintained a 92% combined ratio over the past 10 years, significantly outperforming the industry's 103% underwriting loss.

    05

    California Wildfire Impact and Strategy

    Allstate estimates gross losses from Southern California wildfires at $2 billion, with a net impact of $1.1 billion after $900 million in reinsurance recoveries. The company has significantly reduced its California homeowners market share by over 50% since 2007 due to risk management. Management does not have growth aspirations in California homeowners and seeks regulatory changes for sustainable market operation.

    06

    Investment Performance and Asset Allocation

    Net investment income increased by $123 million year-over-year to $727 million in Q4 FY24, driven by a higher fixed income earned yield (up 40 bps to 4.4%) and increased assets under management. Performance-based income was up $107 million year-over-year to $167 million. The portfolio is largely comprised of high-quality, liquid interest-bearing assets, with public equity holdings increasing to $3.3 billion, representing 5% of the total portfolio.

    07

    Protection Plans Business Growth

    The Protection Plans business generated $528 million in Q4 FY24 revenues, up 20.3% year-over-year, and $157 million in adjusted net income for the full year. It has grown to approximately 160 million policies, adding 60 million since 2019, and revenues have increased to nearly $2 billion in 2024, reflecting a 23.9% annual compounded growth rate since 2019.

    08

    Divestitures and Capital Management

    Allstate is selling its employer voluntary benefits and group health businesses for combined proceeds of $3.25 billion, expecting a book gain of approximately $1 billion. These divestitures are part of a broader capital management strategy that includes organic growth, risk-adjusted capital deployment, and share repurchases, with $41.5 billion in stock repurchased since the company went public.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.