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    ALL
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    ALLSTATE Q4 FY25 earnings call ALL

    Feb 5, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    The Allstate Corporation Q4 FY25 — Strong Underwriting, Capital Returns, and Transformative Growth

    Allstate delivered strong Q4 FY25 results, driven by improved underwriting profitability and the success of its transformative growth initiatives. The company focused on enhancing insurance affordability through price reductions and operational efficiencies, while expanding market share across its personal lines. Significant capital returns to shareholders were announced, underscoring confidence in future performance and capital strength.

    Highlights

    5
    • Adjusted net income was $3.8 billion for the quarter, or $14.31 per common share.

    • Property-Liability auto combined ratio improved by 10 points compared to the prior year.

    • Protection Services segment grew policies in force by 3.3% to $172 million and revenue increased 11.7% to $3.3 billion for the year.

    • Auto insurance policy growth accelerated and broadened, with 20 states growing policies by at least 4% and 38 states growing overall, representing over 70% of countrywide written premium.

    • A $4 billion share repurchase program was authorized, and the quarterly dividend increased by 8% to $1.08 per share.

    Concerns

    3
    • Physical damage costs increased 47% over the past 5 years, and bodily injury costs increased 52% over the same period, driven by used car prices and attorney involvement.

    • Uninsured and underinsured motor costs increased 72%, placing a burden on responsible drivers.

    • The average gross premiums written per auto policy turned negative in Q4, reflecting price reductions and mix shifts.

    Guidance & targets

    4
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Quarterly stock dividend
    $1.08 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Share repurchase program authorization
    $4 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Homeowners recorded combined ratio
    low 90s
    medium materiality
    High
    Homeowners underlying combined ratio
    low to mid-60s
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Protection Services
    Led by protection plans, expanding domestically and internationally.
    Policies in force: $172 million (up 3.3%)Domestic revenue growth: 8.1% (Q4 YoY)International revenue growth: 39.7% (Q4 YoY)Adjusted net income (Q4): $49 million (up 32.4% YoY)
    $3.3 billion11.7%$218 million
    Property-Liability (Auto Insurance)
    Generated strong results with improved combined ratio due to underlying performance, lower catastrophes, and favorable prior year reserve releases.
    Policy growth: 2.3%Combined ratio: 90% (excluding reserve changes and lower catastrophes)Combined ratio improvement: 10 points YoY
    4.4%$5.7 billion
    Property-Liability (Homeowners Insurance)
    Continues to grow and generate industry-leading returns, supported by expanded distribution and new products.
    Policy growth: 2.5%Recorded combined ratio: 84.4%Underlying combined ratio: 57.9%
    15%$2.4 billion

    Operational metrics

    30
    Diluted EPS (adjusted)
    $14.31
    Q4 FY25

    Adjusted net income per common share for the fourth quarter.

    Diluted EPS (adjusted)
    $34.83
    FY25

    Adjusted net income per common share for the full year.

    Auto insurance cost composition: Physical damage
    43%
    2020-2025 average

    Largest share of auto insurance industry costs.

    Auto insurance cost composition: Injury costs
    34%
    2020-2025 average

    Share of auto insurance industry costs.

    Auto insurance cost composition: Expenses
    23%
    2020-2025 average

    Share of auto insurance industry costs.

    Premium in non-growing states
    less than 30%
    end of 2025

    Percentage of total premium in states where policies in force were not growing.

    Average combined ratio (10-year)
    92.0%
    last 10 years

    Allstate's average combined ratio for homeowners business.

    Direct channel new business growth
    500%5x increase
    since inception

    Increase in new business written through the direct channel compared to prior to transformative growth initiatives.

    Common shares repurchased (historical)
    80%
    since Tom Wilson joined

    Total common shares outstanding repurchased since current CEO's tenure.

    Auto insurance price reduction impact
    $800 million
    FY25

    Cumulative auto insurance earned premium impact from rate decreases and SAFE actions.

    Adjusted expense ratio reduction
    6.6 points
    since 2018

    Reduction in adjusted expense ratio due to transformative growth initiatives.

    Marketing investment
    $2.1 billionup from $900 million in 2019
    2025

    Increased marketing investment to enhance acquisition capabilities.

    Personal Lines new business
    $11.6 millionup from $5.5 million in 2019
    2025

    New business policies generated, more than doubling since 2019.

    Total Personal Lines policies in force
    $38.1 millionup from $33.5 million
    2025

    Total policies in force across all personal lines.

    Physical damage costs increase
    47%
    past 5 years

    Increase in physical damage costs for auto insurance.

    Used car prices increase
    43%
    during the pandemic

    Increase in used car prices, driving up replacement/repair costs.

    Bodily injury costs increase
    52%
    past 5 years

    Increase in bodily injury claims costs.

    Uninsured/underinsured motor costs increase
    72%
    past 5 years

    Increase in costs for uninsured and underinsured motorists.

    SAFE program premium reduction
    17%
    2025

    Average premium reduction for 7.8 million customers through the SAFE program.

    ASC auto insurance rate reduction
    9%
    2025

    Average rate reduction in 32 states for the new auto ASC product.

    Net investment income
    $3.4 billionmore than $350 million higher YoY
    2025

    Total net investment income for the year.

    Market-based assets total return
    6.1%materially higher than last year
    past 12 months

    Total return from market-based assets.

    Performance-based investments return
    5.8%down slightly year-over-year
    past 12 months

    Return from performance-based investments.

    Private market funded interest sales
    $270 million
    during the year

    Amount of funded interest sold in the secondary market.

    Total capital returned to shareholders
    $2.2 billion
    2025

    Combined common shareholder dividends and share repurchases.

    Common shares repurchased (last 5 years)
    18%
    last 5 years

    Percentage of common shares outstanding repurchased.

    Common shares repurchased (last 10 years)
    39%
    last 10 years

    Percentage of common shares outstanding repurchased.

    States with 4-10% PIF growth
    14
    end of 2025

    Number of states with policy in force growth between 4% and 10%.

    States with >4% PIF growth
    20
    end of 2025

    Number of states with policy in force growth of at least 4%.

    States with PIF growth
    38
    end of 2025

    Number of states experiencing policy in force growth.

    Industry KPIs

    9
    MetricValueDetails
    Combined ratio84.4%%
    Capital returns$2.2 billionUSD
    Policies in force2.3%%
    Catastrophe losses
    Net investment income$3.4 billionUSD
    Retention persistency
    Net premiums written earned4.4%%
    Renewal rate change pricing5.9%%
    Prior year reserve development

    Product announcements

    3
    ProductTypeDetails
    ASC Auto productlaunch
    ASC Auto productroadmap
    Custom 360 Auto and Homeowners Insurance productsexpansion

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    National Generalacquisition

    Acquired in 2021 to enhance independent agent business.

    SquareTradeacquisition

    Acquisition mentioned as an example of being a 'better owner' of a business.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Increased bodily injury claims due to attorney involvement and higher settlements.Ongoing

    52% increase over the last 5 years.

    Mitigation: Advocacy for tort reform (e.g., Florida's 5.9% rate reductions), redesigning operating model to accelerate payments, using predictive models to resolve claims promptly.

    Increased physical damage costs due to higher used car prices and expensive vehicle repairs.Ongoing

    47% increase over the past 5 years; used car prices rose 43% during the pandemic.

    Mitigation: Optimizing inspection methods, adjuster training, advanced computing capabilities in claims processes; expectation that used car price inflation reversal will improve affordability.

    Higher costs for responsible drivers due to increased uninsured and underinsured motorists.Ongoing

    72% increase.

    Mitigation: Mitigation by enforcement laws requiring insurance coverage and raising mandatory coverage limits.

    Highly competitive market with aggressive competitors (Progressive, GEICO, State Farm) and mutuals.Ongoing

    GEICO lost a couple of points of market share; Allstate's new business up much bigger than shopping increase.

    Mitigation: Leveraging differentiated products, attractive pricing, strong brand, broad distribution (EA, IA, direct), sophisticated advertising, and transformative growth initiatives.

    Shopping behaviors have changed, leading to potentially lower retention rates.Ongoing

    Shopping is up.

    Mitigation: SAFE program to optimize coverages/discounts, moving customers to ASC products, building ongoing customer connection, and strong new business growth offsetting shopping.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    How will the regulatory environment change over the next 24 months regarding rate relief, especially given proactive approaches in some states?

    Tom Wilson stated that affordability is a countrywide issue, and the focus should be on reducing costs, not process. He highlighted tort reform in Florida (leading to 5.9% rate reductions) and efforts in Louisiana and Georgia as positive examples. He expressed hope that states would address litigation costs, which drive up bodily injury claims.

    I'm hopeful that what this will do is put the attention on that needs to change. Like people don't need to be paying for lawyers and for fender bender lawsuits.

    asked by Gregory Peters · answered by Thomas Wilson

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Insurance Affordability Initiatives

    Allstate successfully improved auto and homeowners insurance affordability for millions of customers in 2025. The SAFE program reduced 7.8 million customers' premiums by an average of 17% by optimizing coverages and discounts. Additionally, auto insurance rates for the new ASC product were reduced in 32 states with an average reduction of 9%, and direct purchase options with lower prices were expanded.

    02

    Transformative Growth Progress

    The transformative growth initiative has significantly lowered the adjusted expense ratio by 6.6 points since 2018, enabling more competitive pricing while maintaining margins. Personal Lines new business more than doubled from $5.5 million in 2019 to $11.6 million in 2025, with balanced distribution across Allstate agents, independent agents, and direct channels. Total personal lines policies in force increased from $33.5 million to $38.1 million.

    03

    Auto Claims Process Improvements

    Allstate has enhanced physical damage claim processes through optimized inspection methods, adjuster training, and advanced computing. For injury costs, the company redesigned its operating model to accelerate payments, utilizing new tools and predictive models to identify and resolve claims promptly, contributing to favorable reserve adjustments and offsetting increased loss costs.

    04

    Regulatory Environment and Tort Reform

    Management highlighted the need for legislative and regulatory changes to address rising auto insurance costs, particularly physical damage (up 47% in 5 years) and bodily injury (up 52% in 5 years). Tort reform in Florida led to 5.9% rate reductions for top insurers, and similar efforts in Louisiana and Georgia are expected to reduce litigation costs. The company advocates for addressing underlying costs rather than focusing on 'excess profits'.

    05

    Investment Portfolio Performance

    The investment portfolio performed well in 2025, with net investment income rising to $3.4 billion, up over $350 million year-over-year. Market-based assets generated a 6.1% total return, driven by increased bond prices and higher equity returns. Performance-based investments returned 5.8%, with the company moderating new commitments in private markets due to a tighter capital and liquidity backdrop.

    06

    Competitive Landscape and Growth Strategy

    Allstate operates in a highly competitive market, leveraging its broad distribution channels (exclusive agents, independent agents, direct), sophisticated pricing models, and advertising scale. The company's transformative growth plan has enabled it to gain market share, particularly in auto insurance, with 20 states growing policies by over 4%. Homeowners insurance also shows strong growth potential, with the ASC product driving traction in direct sales.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.