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    AMBP
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. AMBP

    Jul 23, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Ardagh Metal Packaging Q2 FY26 — Strong Europe Performance Drives Upgraded Full-Year EBITDA Guidance

    Ardagh Metal Packaging delivered a strong Q2 FY26, with adjusted EBITDA significantly exceeding expectations, primarily driven by robust performance in Europe. While global volumes saw a slight decline due to North American contract resets and Brazil softness, the company anticipates a return to modest global volume growth in the second half. Management upgraded its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, reflecting confidence in its outlook despite expected inflationary and metal timing headwinds.

    Highlights

    5

    • Q2 Adjusted EBITDA grew 14% year-over-year to $240 million, significantly exceeding guidance of $210 million to $220 million.

    • Europe segment revenue increased 13% (10% constant currency) to $698 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 36% to $105 million, driven by favorable input cost recovery and strong volume growth.

    • Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was upgraded to between $775 million and $790 million, reflecting confidence in the outlook.

    • Specialty cans now represent over 50% of total volumes, demonstrating successful portfolio transformation over the past decade.

    • The company maintains a strong energy hedging program, with over 85% coverage for 2026, approximately 80% for 2027, and nearly 70% for 2028.

    Concerns

    5

    • Beverage can sales declined 1% year-over-year in Q2, impacted by contract resets in North America and lower shipments in Brazil.

    • North America shipments decreased 5% in Q2 due to contract resets and metal supply constraints at the beginning of the quarter.

    • Brazil beverage can shipments decreased 15% in Q2, reflecting customer mix effects and increased competitive activity in a volatile market.

    • Anticipated second-half headwinds include a reversal of favorable metal pricing timing effects, freight inflation, and FX impacts.

    • The Boston Beer lawsuit, while resulting in a $190 million award, is under appeal, introducing uncertainty regarding the final payment.

    Guidance & targets

    14
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA
    $775 million - $790 million
    high materiality
    High
    Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA
    $200 million - $210 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Total CapEx
    $240 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Cash Interest
    $220 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Lease Principal Repayments
    $150 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Cash Tax
    $30 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Working Capital
    small outflow
    low materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation
    unchanged expectation
    medium materiality
    High
    Europe Volume Growth
    around 3%
    medium materiality
    High
    North America Industry Growth
    low single-digit percentage
    medium materiality
    High
    AMP North America Volume
    small full year decline
    medium materiality
    High
    AMP North America Volume Growth
    at least in line with the industry
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Brazil Industry Growth
    low single-digit percentage
    medium materiality
    Medium
    AMP Brazil Volumes
    broadly track the market
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Europe
    Revenue increase due to favorable volume mix effects and pass-through of higher input costs, including higher aluminum prices. Strong underlying demand and ramp-up of newly contracted volumes. Adjusted EBITDA increase primarily due to stronger input cost recovery, including a favorable metal pricing timing impact and volume growth, partly offset by higher operations and overhead costs.
    Constant currency revenue growth: 10%Adjusted EBITDA growth: 36% YoYShipments increased: 5%Good growth in carbonated soft drinks and energy categoriesImprovement in underlying beer performance
    		$698 million13%—$105 million (Adjusted EBITDA)
    Americas
    Revenue increase principally reflecting the pass-through of higher input costs (metal and freight), partly offset by lower shipments. Adjusted EBITDA increase resulted from lower operations and overhead costs compared to the prior year, partly offset by lower input cost recovery and lower shipments. North America shipments impacted by contract resets, metal supply chain challenges, and cycling a strong prior year comparable. Brazil shipments impacted by customer mix effects and increased World Cup related activity from competitors.
    Adjusted EBITDA growth: 2% YoYNorth America shipments decreased: 5%Brazil beverage can shipments decreased: 15%
    		just above $1 billion21%—$135 million (Adjusted EBITDA)

    Operational metrics

    11
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $240 millionup 14% YoY
    Q2 FY26

    Exceeded guidance range of $210 million to $220 million.

    Beverage can sales
    declined 1%YoY
    Q2 FY26

    Impacted by contract resets in North America and lower shipments in Brazil, partly offset by strong volume growth in Europe.

    Specialty cans volume mix
    over 50%
    current

    Represents a significant transformation in the company's product portfolio.

    Energy hedging coverage
    over 85%
    2026

    Well covered for energy needs.

    Energy hedging coverage
    approximately 80%
    2027

    Well covered for energy needs.

    Energy hedging coverage
    nearly 70%
    2028

    Well covered for energy needs.

    Metal timing impact
    over $12.5 million
    Q2 FY26

    Approximately half of the $25 million outperformance versus consensus midpoint was linked to metal timing in Europe.

    Metal timing reversal
    negative impact
    H2 FY26

    About one-third of the Q2 metal timing benefit is expected to reverse as a headwind in the second half.

    Freight inflation
    mid-single-digit percentage headwind
    H2 FY26

    Expected headwind in the second half, linked to Middle East conflict.

    FX headwind
    headwind
    H2 FY26

    Expected headwind in the second half.

    Boston Beer lawsuit award value
    $190 million
    current

    Total expected award value after amended final judgment; Boston Beer has posted a bond and filed an appeal.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Dividends$0.10per share
    Net debt leverage5.2xx
    CAPEX capital program$240 millionUSD
    Volume production growth5%%
    End market demand driversStrong growth
    Adjusted underlying EBITDA$240 millionUSD

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Boston BeerLawsuit for breach of contract (minimum volume purchase requirements)$190 million

    Lawsuit filed in 2022. On May 26, 2026, a court entered an amended final judgment to include $15.5 million in prejudgment interest, taking the total expected award value to approximately $190 million on a pretax basis. Boston Beer posted a bond with the court to cover the award value and has filed notice of appeal.

    Capital programs

    1
    UK and Spain Capacity Expansion Projectsdecision to upsize taken
    Period spend: increase of $40 million

    Benefit: capitalize on strong industry demand; higher demand can sizes in faster-growing categories

    Upsizing these projects following constructive commercial engagement with customers, leading to higher CapEx in 2026. Reviewing the timing of these projects given the strength of demand.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Metal supply constraints in North AmericaBeginning of Q2 FY26

    Impacted operations at the beginning of Q2

    Mitigation: Supply availability significantly improved over the course of the quarter; anticipate operating under normal supply conditions during the second half of the year.

    Inflationary headwinds (freight costs, direct materials)Second half of 2026

    Mid-single-digit percentage headwind

    Mitigation: Resilience of supply chain; embedded in guidance.

    Metal pricing timing effect reversalSecond half of 2026

    Negative impact in H2, approximately one-third of Q2 benefit reversing

    Mitigation: Assumed in guidance.

    FX headwindsSecond half of 2026

    Headwind

    Mitigation: Assumed in guidance.

    Volatility in Brazil marketQ2, Q3, and potentially Q4 FY26

    Shipments decreased 15% in Q2; industry outlook soft for Q3

    Mitigation: Being cautious on Q4 estimates; market remains positive for can growth long-term.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    Global volume growth

    Second half of 2026
    CurrentDeclined 1% in Q2
    TargetReturn to modest global volume growth

    Why it matters

    Indicates recovery from contract resets and market softness🌐, crucial for overall revenue and profitability.

    Overall volumes are in line with our expectations, and we expect to return to modest global volume growth in the second half, supported by the strength in global beverage can demand, our attractive customer portfolio and our high exposure to fast-growing beverage categories.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Did the World Cup benefit North America volumes, and how much above market growth is possible in 2027 given current constraints and resets?

    No particular World Cup effect was observed in North America, partly due to early-quarter metal constraints. For 2027, while not providing specific guidance, management expects at least in-line industry growth, benefiting from additional customer filling locations secured through current contract resets and a favorable portfolio mix towards soft drinks and energy categories.

    “we're not calling '27 yet, but we do see that we have some gains from the same contract resets that impacted those this year negatively, we have some positive gains next year in terms of a couple of additional filling locations.”

    asked by Matthew Roberts · answered by Oliver Graham

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Company Transformation & Milestones

    Ardagh Metal Packaging celebrated its 10-year anniversary, marking a significant transformation from three regional businesses into an integrated global entity. Over this period, the company invested over $2 billion in growth capital, expanding its capacity by more than 30%. Specialty cans now constitute over 50% of its volumes, reflecting a successful diversification strategy across global and regional customers and growing categories. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to have approximately doubled since the company's inception, highlighting its enhanced capabilities and resilience.

    02

    European Market Strength and Investment

    Europe demonstrated robust performance in Q2, with revenue increasing 13% (10% constant currency) and adjusted EBITDA surging 36% year-over-year. This growth was fueled by strong underlying demand, favorable input cost recovery, and the ramp-up of newly contracted volumes. The company is upsizing its capacity expansion projects in the U.K. and Spain, leading to an additional $40 million in CapEx for 2026, to capitalize on strong industry demand and low can penetration rates in certain European markets. Management is also reviewing the timing of📎 these projects to optimize for demand strength.

    03

    North American Transition and Demand Dynamics

    North America experienced a 5% decline in shipments in Q2, which was in line with expectations for a transition year following contract resets and initial metal supply constraints. Despite this, underlying industry demand remains robust, particularly in the energy category and for specialty can formats, which continue to show strong growth. The company anticipates a more favorable second-half volume performance and expects to return to industry-aligned growth in 2027, supported by additional customer filling locations secured through recent contract adjustments.

    04

    Brazil Volatility and Outlook

    Brazil's beverage can shipments decreased 15% in Q2, reflecting customer mix effects and increased competitive activity. The market has become more volatile post-COVID, with consumer weakness🌐 and brewers aggressively chasing volume. The industry outlook for Q3 remains soft, and while the company expects low single-digit industry growth for 2026, predicting market dynamics has become more challenging. Management is exercising caution for Q4 estimates, which typically includes the summer season in Brazil.

    05

    Boston Beer Lawsuit Update

    An amended final judgment in the lawsuit against Boston Beer, filed in 2022 for breach of contract, was entered on May 26, 2026. This judgment included $15.5 million in prejudgment interest, bringing the total expected award value to approximately $190 million on a pretax basis. Boston Beer has subsequently posted a bond with the court to cover the award value and has filed a notice of appeal, indicating the matter is not yet fully resolved.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.