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Air Products (APD) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q2 FY26)· Materials· Apr 30, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Air Products Q2 FY26 — Broad-based operating income growth lifts EPS 19%, full-year guide raised

Air Products delivered a resilient first half—on-site refining strength, ramping Asia assets and productivity drove margin expansion and a raised full-year guide—while it manages a helium supply shock from the Middle East conflict via its Texas cavern and diversified sources. Management is pivoting large-project capital toward an electronics super-cycle (notably a record Samsung fab win) as the Darrow blue-ammonia project's base case remains no-go pending economics.

Highlights

5
  • Adjusted EPS of $3.20, up 19% (+$0.51) YoY, exceeding the top end of guidance on stronger on-site volume and better-than-expected helium volume from space launches

  • Adjusted operating margin expanded over 200 bps YoY to 23.7% despite a 50 bps energy pass-through headwind; sales up 9% and adjusted operating income up 19%

  • Full-year FY26 guidance raised to $13.00–$13.25, implying 8%–10% growth at the midpoint

  • Volume growth of ~4% (best in three years), led by U.S. refinery on-site assets and new Asia assets ramping; Asia segment operating income +25%

  • ~$50M productivity savings realized YTD from headcount reductions; $800M returned to shareholders via dividends in H1; net debt-to-EBITDA at 2.2x

Concerns

4
  • Helium remains an ~4% drag on FY26 EPS on lower price, with Qatar (≈1/3 of world helium supply) curtailed and its Air Products-connected plant down since December

  • Company-wide price down 1% YoY driven by the helium headwind; Q4-implied EPS growth slows to low-single digits as a turnaround shifts from Q2 into Q3/Q4

  • Louisiana/Darrow project base case is to NOT move forward absent an acceptable capital cost estimate and EPC agreements; go/no-go by mid-calendar 2026

  • Macroeconomic uncertainty in Europe (feedstock costs/chemicals run rates) and Asia (China hypercompetitive pricing, negative PPI/CPI), plus Strait of Hormuz supply-chain risk

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full-year adjusted EPS
$13.00 to $13.25, representing 8% to 10% growth vs prior year
high materiality
High
Q3 adjusted EPS
$3.25 to $3.35, representing 5% to 8% growth vs prior year
high materiality
High
Capital expenditures
Approximately $4 billion for the fiscal year (guidance maintained)
high materiality
High
Capex reduction
Reduce capital expenditure by approximately $1 billion in FY26 vs prior year
medium materiality
High
Helium EPS headwind
~4% drag on EPS in 2026 from lower helium price; expected to bottom by end of the year
high materiality
Medium
Effective tax rate
~18% for the back half of the fiscal year
low materiality
Medium
Backlog additions
Add another $1.5 billion to $2 billion to project backlog in the next 6 months
medium materiality
Medium
Electronics helium volume growth
Helium volumes to large electronics customers in Asia to more than double between 2026 and 2030
high materiality
Medium
Darrow/Louisiana project decision
Reach a go/no-go decision by the middle of calendar 2026; base case is to NOT move forward absent acceptable economics
high materiality
Medium
Credit rating target
Return the company to an A/A2 rating over the long term
medium materiality
Medium
Multi-year EPS growth algorithm
Mid- to high single-digit EPS growth over the 5-year forecast
high materiality
Medium
Second-half volume outlook
Continued market-volume improvement, largely in the Americas, plus new-asset contributions in Asia and Americas
medium materiality
Medium

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Americas
Growth driven by on-site volume with merchant up (helium for space launches) and non-helium merchant price. Offset by a prior-year one-time customer contract addendum, lower helium price, and higher power costs plus maintenance turnarounds. Margins pressured by energy cost pass-through (HyCo assets) and turnaround expense; expected to improve as energy costs subside and productivity continues.
On-site volume: primary growth driverMerchant volume: up, including helium for space launchesNon-helium merchant price: positive contribution
—Operating income +2%—Operating income +2% YoY
Asia
Up 25% on productivity, favorable on-site and helium volumes, ramping new assets (more in H2), and reduced depreciation from held-for-sale gasification assets. Partially offset by helium pricing headwind. China remains hypercompetitive with negative PPI/CPI keeping pricing largely flat.
On-site volume: favorableHelium volume: favorableProductivity: continued improvementsNew assets: modest contribution, rampingDepreciation: reduced from gasification assets held for sale
—Operating income +25%—Operating income +25% YoY
Europe
Up 8% on favorable on-site volume (including lapping a prior-year turnaround), favorable currency and non-helium price. Higher costs including depreciation and fixed cost inflation, plus helium volume and pricing headwinds. Chemicals customers pressured by feedstock securing challenges and high costs not mitigable via pricing.
On-site volume: favorable (lapped prior-year turnaround)Currency: favorableNon-helium price: favorable
—Operating income +8%—Operating income +8% YoY
Middle East and India
Operating income improved on lower cost; equity and affiliate income slightly positive. More than 3,000 employees across direct operations and minority-owned JVs in the region.
Equity and affiliate income: slightly positive
—Operating income improved (unquantified)—Improved on lower cost
Corporate and Other
Improved on lower sale-of-equipment cost headwinds (prior-year percentage-of-completion cost increase) and continued productivity from headcount reduction/rightsizing. Current run rate expected to hold for the rest of the year.
Sale of equipment: lower cost headwinds vs prior yearProductivity: continued strong contribution
—Results improved (unquantified)—Improved YoY

Orderbook & backlog

Total project backlog (board-approved, profit-contributing) $9 billion Q2 FY26

Strengthened in electronics and aerospace; NEOM impact ramps toward 2030

Includes NEOM (variable impact leading to 2030 CBAM/RFNBO ramp); two new assets contribute in H2 FY26.

Traditional industrial gas backlog (ex-NEOM/Darrow and other non-contributing projects) A little over $2.5 billion Q2 FY26

A significant portion is in the electronics space.

Electronics ASU and hydrogen projects currently executing in Asia ~$1 billion Q2 FY26

Several multiphase projects serving semiconductor and memory customers.

Product announcements

ProductTypeDetails
NASA Artemis 2 mission supplymilestone
New Florida air separation unit (ASU) for space launchexpansion

Deals & partnerships

Samsung Customer contract / build-own-operate (industrial gas supply for advanced fab) Undisclosed (largest-ever electronics investment for APD; directionally above ~$900M) ~4-year construction across multiple phases

Build, own and operate multiple production facilities and specialty gas supply systems for a new advanced fab in South Korea.

Yara Marketing and distribution agreement (for NEOM)

Marketing/distribution agreement for NEOM; a U.S. agreement for hydrogen and nitrogen; CBAM risk sits with Yara, not part of APD's agreement.

Qatar Energy Long-term helium supply partnership

Supply is from Qatar's local natural gas grid (not the LNG source); logistics complicated by conflict.

Sonatrach (Algeria) Long-term helium supply partnership

One of Air Products' multiple long-term helium sourcing partnerships supporting supply-chain resilience.

Large Asia electronics customers Long-term helium supply agreements Average 3–5 years, some recently longer

Long-term agreements signed as customers prioritize supply reliability amid the helium shortage.

Capital programs

NEOM green hydrogen/ammonia project underway
Spent to date: Renewable power side essentially complete; substation energized on grid power

Benefit:Green hydrogen and ammonia production

West Coast Saudi Arabia, unaffected by the conflict; next steps connect the solar park and commission on own renewable power; Yara marketing/distribution agreement progressing. Ammonia prices near $1,000/ton cited as temporary.

Louisiana / Darrow blue-ammonia project paused / under review (base case: not moving forward)
Spent to date: Some equipment already procured

Benefit:Ammonia (three ammonia trains; three process units incl. air separation, hydrogen generation)

Requires a reliable capital cost estimate and EPC construction agreements meeting risk-adjusted returns; reviewing EPC bids; go/no-go targeted by mid-calendar 2026. Downsizing to ~50% deemed impractical (one process area has three trains).

Samsung advanced fab gas supply (South Korea) announced Undisclosed (largest-ever electronics investment; directionally above the ~$900M TSMC project)
Start: ~Now (announced day prior to call)

Benefit:Multiple production facilities and specialty gas supply systems; volumes ~3x Phase 1 when fully built

Build-own-operate; fifth phase of what management calls the world's largest electronics site; part of the $1.5–2B backlog additions expected in the next 6 months.

New Florida ASU (space launch support) announced
Start: Announced intent

Benefit:Air separation capacity to support NASA and commercial space launch customers

Build-own-operate to increase participation in space launches.

Asia electronics ASU and hydrogen projects underway ~$1 billion (currently executing)
Spent to date: Currently executing

Benefit:ASU and hydrogen serving semiconductor and memory customers (multiphase)

Part of the traditional industrial gas backlog; company expects to add $1.5–2B more to backlog in the next 6 months.

Alberta project under review (no updates)

No updates on offtake timing or cost; working with the governments of Canada and Alberta as regulatory conditions evolve.

Productivity / headcount cost-savings program underway
Period spend: ~$50M savings realized YTD (H1 FY26)
Spent to date: ~$50M savings to date

Benefit:Cost savings via headcount reduction and organization rightsizing

On track with the full-year plan; continuing to flow through Corporate & Other and segments.

Risks & headwinds

Helium supply curtailment from Qatar / helium price headwind FY26; price expected to bottom by end of year; Qatar plant expected back in the next few months

~4% EPS drag in FY26; Qatar ≈1/3 of world helium supply; APD-connected Qatar plant down since December

Mitigation:Texas storage cavern (~5 years operational), multiple U.S. sources, Sonatrach/Qatar Energy partnerships, Gardner Cryogenics ISO container fleet; contingency plans activated; signing longer-term agreements. System sized only for APD volumes, not the whole market.

Middle East conflict / geopolitical uncertainty (ceasefire only) Ongoing; situation could change within 1–2 months

Unquantified; introduces uncertainty to volumes, oil/LNG and energy prices; helium the most visible impact

Mitigation:Second-half guidance held at prior forecast plus the Q2 beat; close customer engagement; NEOM/Middle East operations continuing safely with materials and people on site.

Strait of Hormuz supply-chain disruption H2 FY26 (monitoring)

Unquantified

Mitigation:Closely monitoring customer supply-chain conditions; positioning container fleet to bypass conflict-affected areas.

European chemicals feedstock costs / weak run rates Current window; expected to normalize when the conflict ends

Unquantified; feedstock securing challenges and high costs customers cannot offset with pricing could impact run rates

Mitigation:APD is not a large supplier to European chemicals; beyond Europe volumes relatively stable; pricing benefit to Europe from absent Middle East supply partially offsets.

Macroeconomic uncertainty in Asia and Europe H2 FY26 and beyond

Unquantified; China hypercompetitive with negative PPI/CPI for several years keeping pricing largely flat

Mitigation:Guidance kept cautious; focus on productivity, non-helium pricing, and new-asset ramp; Americas volume green shoots.

Turnaround shifted from Q2 into Q3/Q4 Q3–Q4 FY26

Unquantified; a Q2 turnaround now spread across Q3 and Q4

Mitigation:Reflected in the Q3 EPS guide and second-half shape.

Americas margin pressure from energy pass-through and power/turnaround costs Q2 FY26; expected to ease as energy costs subside

50 bps company margin headwind from higher energy pass-through in the quarter

Mitigation:Strong productivity; margins expected to improve as energy pass-through subsides.

Large-project execution risk (Darrow capital cost / inflation) Go/no-go by mid-calendar 2026

Unquantified; base case is not to proceed without acceptable capital cost estimate and EPC returns

Mitigation:Reviewing EPC bids; Samsung electronics capital available to redeploy if Darrow does not proceed.

Green ammonia demand/price uncertainty (NEOM) Near term (temporary)

Ammonia prices near $1,000/ton, viewed as a temporary, months-long effect

Mitigation:Too early to judge long-term demand; sees structural advantage for U.S. natural gas and clean-power ammonia over time.

Q&A highlights

Update on NEOM given the Middle East conflict, and whether the spike in gray ammonia prices changes green ammonia demand.

NEOM (West Coast Saudi Arabia) is unaffected by the conflict; renewable power side essentially done with the substation energized, next step connecting the solar park to commission on own renewable power. Ammonia prices near $1,000/ton create speculation but management calls it a temporary, months-long effect and too early to judge long-term green ammonia demand; sees structural advantage for U.S. natural gas and for clean-power ammonia over time.

“I think prices are getting very close to $1,000 a ton. Of course, that creates some speculation on projects and so forth. But I would say it's too early for us to understand the demand for green ammonia”

asked by John McNulty · answered by Eduardo Menezes

4 min read 7 chapters

Detailed narrative

Q2 results and the earnings bridge

Adjusted EPS of $3.20 rose 19% (+$0.51) YoY and beat the top of guidance, driven by on-site volume, non-helium pricing, currency (+3% as the dollar weakened), productivity and lower depreciation, partially offset by fixed cost inflation, planned Americas maintenance outages, and a continued helium price headwind.

Sales rose 9% and adjusted operating income grew 19% on volume, currency and lower costs, partially offset by a price headwind. Adjusted operating margin expanded over 200 bps to 23.7% despite a 50 bps drag from higher energy pass-through. Improved equity affiliate income (primarily Mexico) also helped.

Helium supply disruption and resilience

Recent Middle East conflict curtailed helium supply from Qatar, which represents roughly one-third of world helium volume; the Air Products-connected Qatar plant (on the local natural gas grid, not the LNG source) has been down since December. Helium's largest end markets are electronics, aerospace and medical.

Management stressed a resilient supply chain: multiple U.S. sources, long-term partnerships with Sonatrach (Algeria) and Qatar Energy, a dedicated Texas storage cavern operational ~5 years, and a large helium ISO container fleet from subsidiary Gardner Cryogenics. The system is sized to cover Air Products' own volumes if one source is down, not to backfill the whole market.

Contracts average 3–5 years, with some recently longer as customers prioritize reliability.

Large-project portfolio: NEOM, Darrow/Louisiana, Alberta

On NEOM (green hydrogen/ammonia, West Coast Saudi Arabia, unaffected by the conflict), the renewable power side is essentially complete—the substation was energized on grid power—with next steps to connect the solar park and commission using its own renewable power; marketing/distribution negotiations with Yara are progressing (CBAM risk sits with Yara, not the U.S. hydrogen/nitrogen agreement).

On the Louisiana/Darrow blue-ammonia project, the base case is not to proceed absent a reliable capital cost estimate and EPC agreements meeting risk-adjusted returns; a go/no-go is targeted by mid-calendar 2026, and downsizing to ~50% is impractical because one process area has three trains.

Alberta has no updates as regulatory conditions in Canada evolve.

Electronics super-cycle and the Samsung win

Management framed a historical semiconductor super-cycle serving AI demand, with industry CapEx projected in excess of $0.5 trillion between now and 2030. Air Products is executing ~$1 billion in ASU and hydrogen projects in Asia for multiphase semiconductor and memory customers and expects to add $1.5–$2 billion to backlog in the next 6 months.

It announced (day prior) a build-own-operate project with Samsung in South Korea for multiple production facilities and specialty gas supply systems for a new advanced fab—described as its largest-ever electronics investment, its fifth phase at what it calls the world's largest electronics site, with volumes ~3x Phase 1 and a ~4-year construction.

Helium volumes to large Asia electronics customers are expected to more than double 2026–2030.

Segment detail

Americas operating income grew 2% on on-site volume and non-helium merchant price (merchant volume up including helium for space launches), offset by a prior-year one-time customer contract addendum, lower helium price, higher power costs, and maintenance turnarounds. Asia jumped 25% on productivity, favorable on-site and helium volumes, ramping new assets, and reduced depreciation from gasification assets held for sale, partly offset by helium pricing.

Europe rose 8% on on-site volume (lapping a prior-year turnaround), currency and non-helium price, offset by depreciation, fixed cost inflation and helium headwinds. Middle East and India improved on lower cost with slightly positive equity/affiliate income. Corporate and Other improved on lower sale-of-equipment cost headwinds and productivity.

China coal gasification economics

Two coal gasification assets in China were classified as held for sale. Halting their depreciation contributed roughly 1%–1.5% benefit to the quarter, and collection on previously reserved past dues (as coal-to-methanol/oil economics improved with higher oil/LNG costs) added a further ~1%–1.5% tailwind.

Management is actively pursuing the sale of these assets, and expects stronger oxygen demand from Chinese coal gasification customers as oil and LNG costs support higher volumes.

Capital allocation and end markets

Capital discipline remains a priority: FY26 capex maintained at ~$4 billion while cutting spend ~$1 billion versus prior year, with $800 million returned to shareholders in dividends in H1 and net debt-to-EBITDA at 2.2x against a long-term A/A2 rating goal.

End-market color: strong U.S. Gulf Coast refining run rates lifting on-site hydrogen volumes to record levels; European chemicals pressured by feedstock costs; stronger China coal-gasification oxygen demand; electronics and aerospace as bright spots. In aerospace, Air Products supplied liquid hydrogen and liquid helium (via proprietary liquid helium pumps) to NASA's Artemis 2 mission and announced a new Florida ASU to expand support for NASA and commercial space launch customers.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.