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    APO
    Earnings call· Mar 2025(Q1 FY25)

    Apollo Global Management Q1 FY25 earnings call APO

    May 2, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Apollo Global Management Q1 FY25 — Record FRE and Inflows Amidst Volatile Markets

    Apollo Global Management delivered strong Q1 FY25 results, marked by record fee-related earnings and significant organic inflows, demonstrating resilience in a volatile market. The firm emphasized its principal mindset and origination-focused strategy, allowing it to navigate market disruptions and capitalize on opportunities, particularly in public markets. While spread-related earnings guidance was rebased due to macro headwinds and competitive pressures, management remains confident in long-term growth and strategic positioning.

    Highlights

    5
    • Record fee-related earnings (FRE) of $559 million, up 21% year-over-year.

    • Record organic inflows of $43 billion, including $26 billion at Athene and $18 billion in asset management.

    • Strong origination volume of $56 billion, representing nearly 30% growth year-over-year.

    • Wealth channel fundraising approached $5 billion in the quarter, an 85% year-over-year increase.

    • Quarterly cash dividend increased by 10% to $0.51 per share.

    Concerns

    3
    • Spread-related earnings (SRE) guidance for FY25 rebased to mid-single-digit growth off a $3.2 billion starting point, down from an initial $3.5 billion target.

    • SRE headwinds include 1.5 additional rate cuts ($40 million impact), competitive pressure in retail channel ($40 million impact), and higher asset prepayments ($40 million impact).

    • Strategic move toward more cash and less risky assets cost approximately $15 million in Q1, with a potential $30 million impact for the year if not deployed.

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) Growth Drivers
    Sustained momentum in global wealth, continued strength in third-party credit, growth in PE adjacent businesses
    high materiality
    High
    Spread-Related Earnings (SRE) Growth Rate
    mid-single-digit growth rate
    high materiality
    Medium
    Spread-Related Earnings (SRE) Average Growth
    10% average growth
    high materiality
    High
    Origination Volume
    exceeding last year's record level
    medium materiality
    High
    Bridge Investment Group Acquisition Close
    Q3
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Operational metrics

    40
    Fee-related earnings (FRE)
    $559 millionup 21% year-over-year
    Q1 FY25
    Spread-related earnings (SRE) ex-notables
    $826 million
    Q1 FY25
    Adjusted Net Income
    $1.1 billion
    Q1 FY25
    Dividend per share
    $0.5110% increase from prior quarterly run rate
    Q1 FY25
    Assets Under Management (AUM)
    $785 billionup 17% year-over-year
    Q1 FY25
    Organic Inflows
    $43 billionrecord inflows
    Q1 FY25
    Origination Volume
    $56 billionnearly 30% growth year-over-year
    Q1 FY25
    Dry Powder
    $64 billion
    Q1 FY25
    Private Equity Fund X Net IRR
    19%versus 9% for industry peers
    LTM Q1 FY25
    Wealth Channel Fundraising
    approaching $5 billion85% year-over-year increase
    Q1 FY25
    Athene Organic Flows
    $26 billionhighest results on record
    Q1 FY25
    FRE Margin Expansion
    200year-over-year
    Q1 FY25
    Management Fee Growth
    18%
    Q1 FY25
    Capital Solutions Fees
    more than $150 million
    Q1 FY25
    Combined Comp and Noncomp Expenses Growth
    11%year-over-year
    Q1 FY25
    Alternatives Portfolio Return Expectation
    11%
    long-term
    Alternatives Portfolio Return
    higher than pre-release estimates
    Q1 FY25

    due to positive valuation adjustments amid late quarter volatility.

    Derivative Income Recognition Change Impact
    $22 millionunfavorable impact
    Q1 FY25
    SRE Headwind from Rate Cuts
    $40 million
    FY25
    SRE Headwind from Retail Channel Competition
    $40 million
    FY25
    SRE Headwind from Higher Asset Prepayments
    $40 million
    FY25
    Cost of Liquidity Build
    $15 million
    Q1 FY25
    Cost of Liquidity Build
    $30 million
    FY25

    if not deployed

    Capital Returned to Shareholders
    $1.7 billion
    LTM Q1 FY25

    through a combination of dividends and opportunistic share repurchases

    Capital Allocated to Growth Initiatives
    $200 million
    LTM Q1 FY25
    FRE Growth
    21%year-over-year
    Q1 FY25
    Athene Net Invested Assets Growth
    15%year-over-year
    Q1 FY25
    Accord+ Fund II Commitments
    $4.8 billion
    Q1 FY25

    which when combined with the associated managed accounts bring the capital raise for this strategy to $8.5 billion in less than 2 years.

    S3 Equity and Hybrid Solutions Fund I Commitments
    $5.4 billion
    Q1 FY25

    bringing total capital raised across the S3 ecosystem to nearly $10 billion since launching 3 years ago.

    Credit Business LTM Returns
    8% to 12%
    LTM Q1 FY25
    Hybrid Area LTM Returns
    19%
    LTM Q1 FY25
    Origination Spread vs Comparable Rated Corporates
    200 to 250excess spread
    Q1 FY25
    Origination Spread vs Comparable Treasuries
    300 to 375over
    Q1 FY25
    Market Tightening
    30approximately
    Q1 FY25
    Market Widening
    30 to 45
    April 2025
    Broad Sponsor Channel Origination
    over $11 billion
    Q1 FY25
    Infrastructure and Energy Investing Origination
    over $3 billion
    Q1 FY25
    IG Activity
    $27 billiongross
    April 2025
    Direct Lending/Financing Transactions
    over 40
    April 2025
    Athene Investment Spread
    50wider than Q1
    April 2025

    $14 billion was invested in April alone at 50 basis points wider spreads than those available in Q1.

    Industry KPIs

    3
    MetricValueDetails
    Share buyback$700 millionUSD
    Return on equitymid-teens, historically 15%+%
    Net interest margin129bps

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    Bridge Investment GroupAcquisition of a leader in residential and industrial real estate and other specialized real estate asset classes.approximately $1.5 billion

    All-stock transaction.

    Karo Healthcare (sponsored by KKR)Leadership in financing for Karo Healthcare, providing attractive financing solutions in lieu of a broadly syndicated loan package.

    Sponsor selected Apollo-led consortium due to speed of execution and certainty of closing.

    Jeppesen (carve-out of Boeing) via Citi partnershipFinancing for the Jeppesen carve-out.

    Example of ongoing collaboration with bank partners.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Macroeconomic and competitive pressures impacting Spread-Related Earnings (SRE)2025

    1.5 additional rate cuts, which is about a $40 million headwind if realized, competitive pressure in the retail channel of approximately 10 basis points on an assumed $35 billion to $40 billion of volume along with $40 million of headwinds from higher asset prepayments.

    Mitigation: We have an opportunity to earn some of this back based on the deployment pipeline and market volatility providing wider spreads, in which case, our growth rate will be higher.

    Strategic decision to increase cash and reduce risk resulted in a short-term costQ1 FY25 and FY25

    cost us approximately $15 million in the first quarter, and if not deployed, will cost us some $30 million for the year.

    Mitigation: sets us up well in a volatile market. $14 billion was invested in April alone at 50 basis points wider spreads than those available in Q1.

    Market Volatility and Uncertaintycurrent environment, foreseeable future

    very volatile market, uncertain environment, market disruption.

    Mitigation: positioning the firm defensively, in anticipation of this market disruption with dry powder and liquidity to thrive. Prepared for volatility, and we will react accordingly with our principal hat on, making sure we get the best long-term outcome.

    Potential reduction in allocations from foreign investors to U.S. private markets due to political factorsforeseeable future

    We will see reductions in allocations from foreign investors if current trends continue.

    Mitigation: Apollo is a source of diversification for almost every other portfolio, and the U.S. market remains dominant. Management does not expect a major impact on Apollo's business.

    What to watch in Q2 FY25

    5

    SRE Growth Rate

    next quarter
    Currentmid-single-digit growth
    Targethigher growth rate

    Why it matters

    Indicates management's ability to deploy capital at wider spreads and mitigate identified headwinds, impacting full-year SRE.

    We have an opportunity to earn some of this back based on the deployment pipeline and market volatility🌐 providing wider spreads, in which case, our growth rate will be higher.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    Seeking clarification on the SRE guidance reduction, distinguishing between conservative investment choices and market-driven cost of funds increases, and conditions for less conservative deployment.

    Marc Rowan explained the business is underwritten on spread and ROE, aiming for mid-teens ROE. The Q1 decision to increase funding agreements and cash balances was a proactive, conservative choice to prepare for wider spreads, which materialized in April. Martin Kelly added that prepays were higher than forecast and the primary uncertainty is the timing and spreads for deploying the outsized business.

    Martin has given you the conservative side of that because that is what we do. So the opportunities on upside here, in my opinion, are wider spread derived by a lessening of competitive pressure in the liability origination cost of funds area and a strong pipeline of asset management at wide spread, which was particularly good and rewarding in April.

    asked by Glenn Schorr · answered by Marc Rowan

    2 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Market Positioning and Origination Focus

    Marc Rowan outlined Apollo's core philosophy centered on purchase price discipline, relentless focus on origination for excess returns, and proactive risk reduction. This strategy enabled the firm to deploy $25 billion in April, primarily in public markets, which showed faster price adjustments. The firm's ability to provide its 'own bid' in illiquid public markets and offer flexible solutions to borrowers was highlighted as a key differentiator.

    02

    Record Capital Formation and Wealth Channel Growth

    Apollo achieved record quarterly organic inflows of $43 billion, comprising $18 billion from asset management and $26 billion from Athene. The wealth channel demonstrated significant momentum, raising nearly $5 billion in the quarter, an 85% year-over-year increase, across 18 distinct strategies. This growth underscores the effectiveness of Apollo's diversified capital formation engine.

    03

    Athene's Proactive Balance Sheet Management

    Athene raised $26 billion in Q1 and an additional $10 billion in April, predominantly through funding agreements. Despite competitive pressures and tighter spreads, Athene strategically increased cash and treasury balances while reducing leverage. This conservative positioning, though incurring a short-term cost of $15 million in Q1, is designed to enable future deployment at wider spreads, as evidenced by $14 billion invested in April at 50 basis points wider spreads.

    04

    Evolving Industry Landscape and Traditional Asset Manager Partnerships

    Management discussed the redefinition of active management, with traditional asset managers increasingly integrating private assets into various product structures like mutual funds and ETFs. Apollo is actively pursuing partnerships, such as those with State Street and Lord Abbett, to expand distribution and meet the growing demand for private assets, viewing traditional asset managers as a potentially significant source of future capital.

    05

    Liquidity and Transparency in Private Markets

    Apollo is actively working to enhance liquidity in private credit, particularly investment-grade, drawing parallels to the development of the loan market. The firm believes that increased transparency and tradability will broaden acceptance and use cases for private assets, with value ultimately stemming from strong origination capabilities rather than market obfuscation. This approach is exemplified by their efforts to make a market in private credit.

    06

    SRE Outlook and Identified Headwinds

    Martin Kelly detailed the rebased FY25 SRE guidance, citing several headwinds including 1.5 additional rate cuts, competitive pressures in the retail channel, and higher asset prepayments, each contributing approximately $40 million in impact. The firm is currently under-earning on newly written business due to a liquidity build, but anticipates recovering this as market volatility🌐 provides opportunities for deployment at wider spreads.

    07

    Bridge Investment Group Acquisition

    Apollo announced the acquisition of Bridge Investment Group in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $1.5 billion. This strategic acquisition is expected to significantly enhance Apollo's real estate business, providing immediate scale and origination capabilities that are synergistic with the demands of Athene and ARIS, Apollo's semi-liquid real estate products. The transaction is anticipated to close in Q3 FY25.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.