Skip to content
    ARM
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q4 FY26)

    ARM HOLDINGS PLC /UK Q4 FY26 earnings call ARM

    May 6, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Arm Holdings Q4 FY26 — Record quarter as Cloud AI royalties double and AGI CPU demand tops $2B

    Arm is pivoting from a pure-IP licensor to a dual-vector story: surging Neoverse/CSS data-center royalties running alongside a new silicon business built on the AGI CPU. Cloud AI is now the growth engine, offsetting a soft mobile market, while management frames a large multi-year data-center opportunity. The near-term constraint is supply, not demand — orders outrun the capacity Arm can secure this year.

    Highlights

    5
    • Record Q4 revenue of $1.49B, up 20% YoY and above the midpoint of guidance; record FY26 revenue of $4.92B, up 23% (third straight year above 20%)

    • Licensing revenue $819M, up 29% YoY; annualized contract value (ACV) up 22% YoY

    • Data center royalty revenue more than doubled YoY, driven by hyperscaler Arm-based server chips and near-100%-share DPUs/SmartNICs

    • Record non-GAAP EPS of $0.60 in Q4 and $1.77 for FY26, even while stepping up R&D investment

    • Arm AGI CPU demand now exceeds $2B across FY27-FY28 — more than double the ~$1B stated at the March launch

    Concerns

    5
    • Royalty growth decelerated to 11% YoY (vs ~20% run-rate) on a tough MediaTek comparable from the prior year

    • Smartphone/mobile end-market weakness with unit growth flipping negative; overall mobile market flat to slightly negative

    • Supply-chain constraints (wafers, memory, packaging, test) cap AGI CPU to a maintained $1B outlook despite $2B of demand

    • Q1 FY27 non-GAAP EPS guided to $0.40 (down sequentially from $0.60) with OpEx rising to ~$760M

    • Competitive/captive-program pressure — AMD and Intel each cite ~50% CPU share, plus hyperscaler in-house designs

    Guidance & targets

    20
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Q1 FY27 total revenue
    $1.26B plus or minus $50M (~20% YoY growth at midpoint)
    high materiality
    High
    Q1 FY27 royalty revenue
    Up around 20% YoY
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 FY27 license and other revenue
    Up around 20% YoY
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 FY27 non-GAAP operating expense
    Approximately $760M
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 FY27 non-GAAP EPS
    $0.40 plus or minus $0.04
    high materiality
    High
    AGI CPU revenue (FY27-FY28 combined)
    Maintaining ~$1B outlook (demand now exceeds $2B)
    high materiality
    High
    Q4 FY27 AGI CPU revenue
    ~$90M (just shy of $100M)
    medium materiality
    Medium
    FY31 AGI CPU revenue
    $15B
    high materiality
    Medium
    FY31 IP revenue
    $10B (double current IP business)
    high materiality
    Medium
    FY31 total revenue
    $25B
    high materiality
    Medium
    FY31 non-GAAP EPS
    More than $9
    high materiality
    Medium
    FY27 royalty revenue growth (full year)
    Roughly 20% for the year
    high materiality
    Medium
    FY27 license revenue growth (full year)
    In the 20s percent range
    medium materiality
    Medium
    FY27 data center royalty growth
    Double again YoY
    high materiality
    Medium
    Long-term license revenue growth
    High-single-digit to low-double-digit; at least 10% floor
    low materiality
    Low
    FY31 IP business operating/EBITDA margin
    ~65%
    medium materiality
    Low
    FY31 chip business operating/EBITDA margin
    ~35%
    medium materiality
    Low
    AGI CPU chip business profitability (FY27)
    Operating profit positive next year
    medium materiality
    Low
    FY27 license revenue phasing
    ~60% second half / ~40% first half (back-end weighted)
    low materiality
    Low
    FY27 OpEx trajectory and incremental margin
    OpEx grows sequentially by a few percent each quarter; expenses grow less than revenue by year-end (incremental margin improvement)
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    5
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Licensing (License and other revenue)
    Driven by strong demand for next-generation architectures and deeper strategic engagements, including a long-term partnership with the Indonesian government. Licensing varies quarter-to-quarter on deal timing/size, so management emphasizes ACV as the underlying trend indicator.
    SoftBank technology licensing and design-services contribution: $200M (flat vs prior quarter)Next-generation CSS licenses signed: 2 (one for smartphone chips, one for data center networking chips)
    $819M (Q4); $2.31B (FY26)29% (Q4); 25% (FY26)
    Royalty
    Q4 growth slowed to 11% on a tough MediaTek (Dimensity 400) comparable from the prior year; guidance returns royalty to ~20% by Q1 FY27. Biggest contribution to growth came from Cloud AI.
    Highest-ever Q4 royalty revenue
    $671M (Q4); $2.61B (FY26)11% (Q4); 21% (FY26)
    Cloud AI (data center royalty)
    Biggest contributor to royalty growth, primarily from the accelerating ramp of Arm-based server chips across all major hyperscalers plus data center networking chips (DPUs/SmartNICs). Management expects the data center to soon become Arm's largest business.
    DPU/SmartNIC networking-chip market share: close to 100%Expected to double again YoY in FY27
    More than doubled (>100%)
    Physical AI (automotive/ADAS)
    Secular growth of ADAS and autonomous systems based on Arm technology; management sees no change to the double-digit growth rate and continued share gains.
    Continued market-share gains
    Double-digit
    Edge AI (smartphone)
    Smartphone revenues continued to grow despite end-market weakness, driven by higher royalty rates as ARMv9 and compute subsystems penetrate higher-end devices; no headline revenue figure was disclosed for the segment.
    Higher royalty rates from increasing ARMv9 and CSS penetration into higher-end smartphones

    Operational metrics

    12
    Non-GAAP EPS
    $0.60 (Q4); $1.77 (FY26)Record for both Q4 and full year
    Q4 FY26 and FY26

    Record non-GAAP EPS achieved even while increasing R&D investment.

    Non-GAAP operating margin
    ~49%
    Q4 FY26

    Non-GAAP operating income was $731M.

    Non-GAAP operating income
    $731M
    Q4 FY26

    Non-GAAP figure; implies ~49% operating margin on $1.49B revenue.

    Non-GAAP operating expenses
    $734MUp 30% YoY; ~$10M below guidance
    Q4 FY26

    OpEx came in about $10M below guidance.

    Annualized contract value (ACV)
    Up 22%22% YoY
    Q4 FY26

    Management emphasizes ACV as the key indicator of the underlying licensing trend given quarter-to-quarter lumpiness.

    Data center CPU total addressable market (TAM)
    More than $100BAMD subsequently cited ~$120B
    by 2030

    Rising cores-per-CPU and higher ASPs, not just chip count, drive the TAM; management believes it may have undercalled the transition.

    AGI CPU core count
    136 coresvs NVIDIA Vera at 88 cores; potential path to 256/512 cores
    current generation

    Core-count expansion is the framing management uses for CPU demand growth and ASP uplift.

    AGI CPU performance per rack vs x86
    More than 2xvs x86 platforms
    first production silicon

    First production silicon product for the data center.

    Cumulative Arm chips shipped
    Over 350 billion
    cumulative

    Cited as evidence of the most comprehensive compute platform in history, spanning cloud to edge to physical world.

    Ecosystem partners supporting silicon expansion
    More than 50 companies
    as of Q4 FY26

    Includes the biggest names in the industry; management sought and received support before launching the silicon strategy.

    Google TPU host-processor efficiency uplift (Arm Axion vs x86)
    80% overall performance improvementvs previous x86 host-processor solution
    announced at Google Cloud Next

    Cited as evidence of the accelerator-plus-Arm-CPU efficiency advantage driving hyperscaler adoption.

    NVIDIA standalone Vera CPU rack
    256 Vera CPUs
    announced at NVIDIA GTC

    Illustrates emerging dedicated CPU racks for agentic orchestration sitting adjacent to GPU (Vera Rubin) systems.

    Industry KPIs

    8
    MetricValueDetails
    Lead timesSold out
    Backlog order bookMore than $2B AGI CPU demandUSD
    Ai data center revenueMore than doubled YoY
    Market share commentary~50% share with top hyperscalers; ~100% in DPUs/SmartNICs%
    Services installed baseOver 350 billion Arm chips shipped; 22 million developerschips / developers
    Design wins socket pipelineMultiple design wins and AGI CPU adopters
    Node platform ramp scheduleArm AGI CPU (136 cores); NVIDIA Vera (88 cores)cores
    End market segment revenue mixLicensing $819M / Royalty $671M (Q4 FY26)USD

    Orderbook & backlog

    1
    Arm AGI CPU customer demand (FY27-FY28)More than $2B2026-05-06 (call date)

    More than double the ~$1B stated at the March 2026 launch

    Revenue outlook maintained at $1B pending supply-chain capacity (memory, wafers, packaging, test); first production chip revenues expected Q4 FY27 (~$90M), with the bulk in FY28. Not company RPO — this is forward AGI CPU silicon demand distinct from IP/royalty.

    Product announcements

    2
    ProductTypeDetails
    Arm AGI CPUmilestone
    Arm compute platform — silicon deployment optionexpansion

    Deals & partnerships

    10
    Metapartnership (lead partner / co-developer)multi-generation roadmap

    Meta is Arm's lead partner and co-developer on a multi-generation AGI CPU roadmap.

    SAPcustomer contract

    SAP will move its core database and business application workloads to Arm, starting with AWS Graviton and expanding to the Arm AGI CPU.

    Cloudflarecustomer contract

    Cloudflare will deploy Arm across its global network to support traffic management, security and AI inference closer to users.

    F5design win

    Design win with a key network infrastructure provider.

    SK Telecomdesign win

    Design win with a key network infrastructure provider.

    Indonesian governmentpartnership (licensing)long-term

    Long-term strategic partnership to strengthen Indonesia's capability in the development of AI technology.

    SoftBanklicensing (technology licensing and design services)$200M (Q4 contribution)

    SoftBank technology-licensing and design-services agreement contributed $200M of the $819M license revenue, flat with the prior quarter.

    Cerebras, OpenAI, Rebellions, Positroncustomer contract (AGI CPU head nodes)

    Using the Arm AGI CPU as head nodes alongside accelerator-based systems, mirroring NVIDIA, Amazon and Google's use of Arm-based CPUs as head nodes.

    Supermicro, Lenovo, ASRockpartnership (ODM finished-rack partners)

    ODM partners building finished AGI CPU racks that customers can order and deploy quickly into data halls with minimal integration friction.

    Two undisclosed customers (next-gen CSS)licensing (CSS)

    Two next-generation CSS licenses signed — one to develop smartphone chips, the other for data center networking chips.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    AGI CPU supply-chain constraints capping revenue below demandFY27-FY28

    Demand exceeds $2B (FY27-FY28) but revenue outlook held at $1B; constraints span memory, wafers, packaging and test equipment

    Mitigation: Teams working around the clock to secure incremental supply; firmer Q4 FY27 estimate to come in Q3; finished-rack availability from ODMs eases deployment

    Smartphone/mobile end-market weaknessFY27

    Mobile unit growth flipped to negative last quarter; overall market flat to slightly negative, concentrated at the low end

    Mitigation: Higher royalty rates from ARMv9/CSS penetration into higher-end phones; weakness more than offset by Cloud AI / data center strength

    Tough prior-year royalty comparableQ4 FY26

    Q4 royalty growth slowed to 11% YoY due to a particularly strong prior-year MediaTek (Dimensity 400) ramp

    Mitigation: Guidance returns royalty growth to ~20% by Q1 FY27 as the comp normalizes and data center accelerates

    Competition and captive hyperscaler programsThrough end of decade

    AMD and Intel each cite ~50% CPU share; hyperscaler in-house designs (Graviton, Axion) plus Intel remaining relevant

    Mitigation: Arm positions as efficiency-per-core leader at high core counts, plays across accelerator head nodes and serves customers unwilling to design their own CPUs; expects largest CPU-type share by end of decade

    Channel tension with IP customers who also sell Arm-based CPUsOngoing

    Not quantified

    Mitigation: Pre-briefed 50+ ecosystem partners and licensees who all endorsed the silicon strategy; framed as additive since more Arm-optimized software strengthens the ecosystem

    Q&A highlights

    9

    Where did the incremental AGI CPU demand come from over six weeks, and how will Arm secure the supply while keeping guidance unchanged?

    Demand is a mix of launch customers raising forecasts and new customers ready to deploy, aided by finished-rack availability from Supermicro/Lenovo/ASRock and completed software work. Supply for $1B (memory, wafers, packaging, test) is in place; teams are working to secure supply for the $2B. Jason held the ~$90M Q4 FY27 revenue target unchanged pending supply-chain progress.

    for the $2 billion, we are now in the process of securing supply to support that. And the teams are working around the clock to make sure we can find the right answers for our customers.

    asked by Andrew Gardiner · answered by Rene Haas

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Record quarter and record fiscal year

    Arm delivered its highest-ever quarterly revenue of $1.49B in Q4 FY26, up 20% YoY and nearly $250M above the previous record, above the midpoint of guidance. Licensing grew 29% YoY to $819M and royalty grew 11% YoY to $671M, the highest-ever Q4 royalty figure. Full-year revenue was a record $4.92B, up 23% — the third straight year above 20% growth since the IPO. Royalty for the year was $2.61B (up 21%) and licensing $2.31B (up 25%). Non-GAAP EPS was a record $0.60 in Q4 and $1.77 for the year.

    02

    Cloud AI and the doubling of data center royalty

    Data center royalty revenue continued to more than double YoY, the biggest contributor to royalty growth, and management sees no break in this momentum and expects it to double again in FY27. Growth is driven by the accelerating ramp of Arm-based server chips across all major hyperscalers (Graviton, Axion, Cobalt) plus data center networking chips — DPUs and SmartNICs — where Arm has close to 100% market share. Arm-based compute now represents about 50% share with top hyperscalers. Management expects the data center to soon become Arm's largest business.

    03

    Arm AGI CPU — silicon as a new growth vector

    The Arm AGI CPU, launched last quarter and purpose-built for agentic AI, adds silicon as a third deployment option alongside IP and CSS. The first production silicon is claimed to deliver more than 2x performance per rack versus x86, potentially cutting AI data center capex by up to $10B per gigawatt, and carries 136 cores. Meta is lead partner and co-developer on a multi-generation roadmap targeting personal super intelligence for more than 3 billion users. More than 50 companies support the platform's expansion into silicon. Customer demand now exceeds $2B across FY27-FY28, more than double the ~$1B at launch, and Arm reiterated a $15B revenue target by FY31.

    04

    The agentic-AI CPU thesis and TAM

    Management argues agentic workloads shift compute toward CPUs that coordinate tasks, move data, manage memory and orchestrate accelerators — requiring more than 4x today's CPU capacity and creating a data-center CPU market opportunity of more than $100B by 2030 (AMD subsequently cited $120B). The growth is framed as core-count expansion rather than chip-count: the AGI CPU has 136 cores versus Vera's 88, and management sees a path to 256 or 512 cores, driving ASPs higher. NVIDIA's announced standalone rack of 256 Vera CPUs (200kW, liquid-cooled) illustrates dedicated CPU racks emerging alongside GPU systems.

    05

    Licensing strength, ACV and strategic engagements

    License and other revenue rose 29% YoY to $819M on demand for next-generation architectures and deeper strategic engagements, including a long-term partnership with the Indonesian government and two next-generation CSS licenses (one for smartphone chips, one for data center networking). The SoftBank technology licensing and design-services agreement contributed $200M, flat with the prior quarter. Because licensing is lumpy, management emphasizes annualized contract value (ACV), which grew 22% YoY — above long-term expectations for license revenue growth.

    06

    Ecosystem support for the silicon strategy

    Management pre-briefed the ecosystem — chip builders (Samsung, TSMC), EDA partners (Synopsys, Cadence), the software/Linux/Kubernetes community, and licensees (AWS, Microsoft, Google, NVIDIA) — before announcing the silicon strategy, and every partner asked said yes, with over 50 providing quotes, references or videos. Management framed the move as customer-driven and additive: more Arm-optimized software strengthens the whole ecosystem, and the company is 'sold out' with customers seeking more product.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.