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Arxis (ARXS) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q1 FY26)· Industrials· May 28, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Arxis Q1 FY26 — record first quarter as a public company; 21% sales growth and IPO deleveraging to 2x

Arxis debuts publicly as a diversified proprietary-component compounder, turning broad-based defense, aerospace and industrial-technology demand into record results. Its EDGE bookings system gives management rare full-year visibility that underpins confident inaugural guidance, while a sharply deleveraged post-IPO balance sheet re-arms the Arcline-sourced M&A engine that sits at the heart of the long-term thesis.

Highlights

5
  • Record Q1 sales of $459M, up 21% YoY (17% organic + 4% acquisitions), with all three end markets delivering double-digit growth

  • Adjusted EBITDA of $175M, up 31% YoY; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 290 bps YoY to 38.2%, with incremental EBITDA margins in excess of 50%

  • Post-IPO deleveraging: net leverage cut from 4x to 2x TTM EBITDA on $1.2B of net proceeds ($946M debt repaid), lifting available liquidity to ~$1.1B

  • Debt paydown expected to lower annual cash interest expense by more than $70M vs 2025

  • Roughly 90% of FY26 revenue already booked in backlog via the Arxis EDGE system, underpinning confident inaugural guidance

Concerns

4
  • Free cash flow of only $25M in Q1 (though +107% YoY) burdened by ~$29M AR/inventory build and ~$50M of timing items — $17M defense billing timing, $13M extra pre-IPO cash interest, $20M annual bonuses — some of which may persist into Q2

  • Guidance midpoint implies only ~1% sequential revenue growth across the remaining three quarters, prompting repeated analyst questions on whether Q1 strength is being conservatively extrapolated

  • Elevated near-term non-cash costs: share-based compensation ~$155M and D&A ~$206M for FY26, expected to normalize only over the next few years

  • Defense customers beginning to push for multiyear/long-term agreements vs the company's PO-to-PO model — not yet converted to orders and could reduce pricing flexibility

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full-year 2026 revenue
$1.86 billion to $1.88 billion
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA
$720 million to $730 million
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin
38.8% at midpoint
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 organic growth by end market
Mid-teens organic growth across all three end markets (Defense & Space, Commercial Aerospace, Industrial Technology)
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 capital expenditures
~$63 million (~3% of revenue)
medium materiality
High
Full-year 2026 interest expense
~$135 million
medium materiality
High
Annual cash interest expense reduction vs 2025
More than $70 million lower than 2025
medium materiality
High
Full-year 2026 effective tax rate
~25%
low materiality
Medium
Full-year 2026 depreciation & amortization
~$206 million
low materiality
Medium
Full-year 2026 share-based compensation expense
~$155 million
low materiality
Medium
Full-year 2026 free cash flow conversion
Well over 100%
medium materiality
Medium

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Defense & Space (end market)
Largest end market, aligned to key government spending priorities. Space is only 3-4% of revenue, mirroring space's ~3-4% share of the DoD budget. Early qualitative signs of primes seeking multiyear agreements, but none signed or in backlog yet.
Space submarket share: 3-4% of revenueKey exposures: air defense, radar, missile systems, missile defense, electronic warfare, modernization
~50% of total revenue (~$230M implied on $459M)Double-digit——
Commercial Aerospace (end market)
Benefiting from ramping production rates. Aftermarket is a relatively small piece; business-jet exposure (~5%) remains strong with no fuel-price or Middle East conflict impact. Supply chain resilient and mostly in-country; PO-to-PO contracting allows cost pass-through.
Narrow-body/wide-body share: ~15% of revenueIncluding business jet: 20-23% of revenueBusiness jet aftermarket share: ~5% of revenue
~20% of total revenueDouble-digit——
Industrial Technology (end market)
Broad-based strength ('up and to the right') across a highly diversified set of submarkets, led by semiconductor (AI) and medical, with no single driver.
Largest submarkets: AI-related semiconductor manufacturing; medical technologyOther applications: factory automation, robotics, quantum computing
~30% of total revenueDouble-digit——
Mechanical Components (MCS) segment
Strongest margin expansion in the quarter, driven by VPC-algorithm volume growth at >50% conversion, mid-single-digit pricing, and cost reductions from a large 2024 MCS acquisition still flowing through the P&L in H1 2026. Started from a lower ~30% base with room to expand toward the higher-margin Electronic Components segment; pace expected to modulate.
Incremental EBITDA conversion: >50%Pricing: mid-single-digit
———~37.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, up from ~30% in Q1 FY25 (per 10-Q, analyst-cited and confirmed)
Electronic Components segment
One of the two reporting segments, described as roughly balanced with MCS in size and running on the same business model. Carries higher margins than Mechanical Components; management sees no structural reason the two segments' margins should differ over time. No quantified Q1 figures disclosed.
———Higher than MCS (no specific figure given)

ARXS operating KPIs by quarter

ARXS operating KPIs stated on its earnings calls, by fiscal quarter
KPIThis call Mar 2026 Q1 FY26 Jun 2026 Q2 FY26Change vs prior quarter
Factories
72 We have 72 independent focused factories across our 46 business units. Source: earnings call transcript
<70 Remember, we run 48 individual business units across nearly 70 factories, and we have general managers that are carefully looking at their own secured revenue and their capacity needs and their CapEx needs. Source: earnings call transcript
—
Business units
46 We have 72 independent focused factories across our 46 business units. Source: earnings call transcript
48 Remember, we run 48 individual business units across nearly 70 factories, and we have general managers that are carefully looking at their own secured revenue and their capacity needs and their CapEx needs. Source: earnings call transcript
+4.3%

Operating figures the company stated on at least two of the calls shown, checked against each call's transcript. Click a figure to read the sentence. A dash means it was not stated that quarter.

Orderbook & backlog

Total PO backlog Above $1.2B (grew in Q1) Q1 FY26 (as of May 2026 commentary)

Up from $1.2B at year-end 2025 on positive book-to-bill

Total backlog spread over ~12-18 months; ~90% of FY26 revenue already booked/secured; management focuses on in-year backlog coverage against the ~$1.87B revenue guide rather than the headline total.

Deals & partnerships

Micro-Tronics acquisition

Successfully completed in January; sourced/executed via the Arcline partnership. Part of the 2025-vintage cohort management says is performing well and an excellent business-model fit.

[indiscernible] Steels acquisition

Named by the CFO as one of two acquisitions contributing the 4% inorganic portion of Q1's 21% growth. Company name garbled in transcript (ASR).

Arcline Investment Management strategic partnership (M&A sourcing/underwriting)

Provides 60+ investment professionals plus a business-development team for sourcing, research, underwriting, and long-term portfolio strategy. Described as a key structural advantage pairing industrial operators with institutional-quality capital allocators.

MWave, RMB, OSG, Spira acquisitions (2025 cohort)

2025-class acquisitions cited by an analyst; management says all are excellent business-model fits (proprietary, mission-critical, long platform durations) performing well operationally, financially, and culturally, with continuous further optimization expected.

Undisclosed Mechanical Components target acquisition

Large 2024 MCS acquisition (name indiscernible) behind the segment's elevated margin expansion (~37.6% vs ~30% YoY).

Risks & headwinds

Free cash flow timing/working-capital headwinds Q1 FY26, with some effects potentially continuing into Q2

~$29M AR/inventory build plus ~$50M of timing items ($17M defense billing timing, $13M extra pre-IPO cash interest, $20M annual bonuses); Q1 FCF only $25M

Mitigation:Expected to normalize over the remainder of 2026; full-year FCF conversion projected well over 100% (capex and ΔNWC each ~3% of revenue)

Implied sequential deceleration / extrapolation risk Q2-Q4 FY26

Guidance midpoint implies ~1% sequential revenue growth for each of the remaining three quarters vs a strong Q1

Mitigation:Management says forecast is data-driven off ~90% filled-in EDGE backlog and would be raised if orders accelerate; no seasonality, just normal quarterly variability from platform/customer delivery schedules

Commercial aerospace aftermarket exposure to fuel prices and Middle East conflict Ongoing

Business-jet aftermarket ~5% of revenue (aftermarket a relatively small piece of the ~20-23% commercial aero exposure)

Mitigation:Continues strong with no observed impact; supply chain resilient and mostly in-country; PO-to-PO contracting allows cost pass-through via price increases

Shift toward multiyear/long-term defense agreements vs PO-to-PO model Emerging / future periods

Unquantified; primes seeking 7-year production runways, none signed or in backlog yet

Mitigation:Early days; management monitoring, has not signed LTAs, and retains pricing flexibility under current PO-to-PO contracting

Elevated near-term non-cash and financing costs FY26, normalizing over the next few years

FY26 share-based comp ~$155M; D&A ~$206M; interest expense ~$135M

Mitigation:Post-IPO debt paydown cuts annual cash interest by >$70M vs 2025; SBC and D&A expected to normalize over time

Input cost / supply-chain inflation Ongoing

Unquantified

Mitigation:Business conducted mostly PO-to-PO with very few long-term agreements, enabling pass-through of cost increases as price; supply chain described as resilient and mostly in-country

Q&A highlights

With mid-teens growth guided across all three end markets, are you seeing any change in customer behavior in aerospace/defense given jet fuel and geopolitics, and what risk is in the plan?

Kevin said forecasting relies on EDGE backlog rather than market signals, with ~90% of the year already booked, so forecast risk is very low. Fuel/conflict mainly touch commercial aero aftermarket, a small piece; business-jet exposure is ~5% and still strong. Supply chain is resilient and mostly in-country, and PO-to-PO contracting lets them pass through any input-cost increases.

“as we sit here in May, we have 90% of the year booked and sitting in backlog. And so our full year guidance is really just using that information”

asked by Sheila (Jefferies) · answered by Kevin Perhamus

4 min read 8 chapters

Detailed narrative

Record First Quarter and the Growth Algorithm

Arxis delivered Q1 FY26 sales of $459M, up 21% YoY, comprising 17% organic growth and 4% from the [indiscernible] Steels and Micro-Tronics acquisitions. Management framed growth as broad-based and balanced: new business wins, underlying market volume, modest price increases, and acquisitions each contributed mid-single-digit growth.

All three end markets — Defense & Space, Commercial Aerospace, and Industrial Technology — grew double digits. Adjusted EBITDA of $175M rose 31% YoY with margin up 290 bps to 38.2% and incremental margins above 50%.

Business Model: Proprietary, Designed-In Components

Arxis designs and builds proprietary components — bearings, capacitors, connectors, seals — for harsh environments, embedded in customers' bills of materials typically as the only qualified part and staying for decades. Across 46 business units it owns 67 foundational proprietary technologies (e.g., CryoFlex in the Pac Aero business, KRON in the [indiscernible] business, which adds 5–10x value to a bearing), underpinning 90% proprietary revenue.

The portfolio spans 40,000 part numbers, 600+ platforms, and 5,000+ customers across two segments — Electronic and Mechanical components — run through 72 decentralized focused factories.

IPO and Balance Sheet Transformation

Net leverage declined from 4.2x at year-end 2025 to 4x at quarter end, then to 2x TTM EBITDA shortly after the quarter following the IPO. The IPO generated $1.2B of net proceeds, all to the company: $946M repaid existing debt and $275M went to the balance sheet.

The paydown is expected to cut annual cash interest expense by more than $70M vs 2025. Available liquidity now stands at roughly $1.1B (cash, undrawn revolver, and delayed draw term loan), positioning the company for continued M&A.

Arxis EDGE and Backlog Visibility

Management repeatedly credited the Arxis EDGE operating system, into which all backlog and orders across the portfolio are loaded, for its forecasting confidence. As of May, ~90% of the full-year plan is booked and sitting in backlog, so guidance is built on actual filled-in orders rather than market assumptions.

Management knows the firm backlog target for each business unit at every month of the year. Total PO backlog ended 2025 at $1.2B and grew in Q1 on positive book-to-bill; management focuses on how much backlog is due in-year against the $1.87B revenue guide.

M&A Engine and the Arcline Partnership

Arxis was founded in late 2020 and has completed 32 acquisitions since, averaging 5–6 per year. Its partnership with Arcline — which brings 60+ investment professionals for sourcing, underwriting, and portfolio strategy — is a core structural advantage. Deal activity is described as as high as it has ever been.

Screening runs on two gates: business-model fit first, then financials — the target must grow EBITDA faster than the Arxis base over three years and have its purchase multiple bought down below 10x within 36 months. No strong preference for large vs small deals, though smaller deals are more plentiful.

Segment and End-Market Trends

End-market mix is ~50% Defense & Space, ~20% Commercial Aerospace, ~30% Industrial Technology. Defense & Space benefits from alignment to government priorities — air defense, radar, missile systems/defense, electronic warfare, and modernization — with the space submarket only 3–4% of revenue.

Commercial Aerospace is benefiting from ramping production rates; narrow/wide-body is ~15% of revenue, rising to 20–23% including business jet, with the business-jet aftermarket ~5% and unaffected by fuel prices or Middle East conflict. Industrial Technology strength is broad, led by AI-related semiconductor and medical technology, plus factory automation, robotics, and quantum.

Free Cash Flow Dynamics

Q1 free cash flow was $25M, up 107% YoY but seasonally low on conversion. Record operating performance drove ~$29M higher AR and inventory. Roughly $50M of timing items also weighed: $17M from customer billing timing on a few larger defense programs (raising net contract assets), $13M from additional months of cash interest ahead of the post-IPO debt paydown, and $20M of annual bonus payments made in Q1.

Some timing effects may continue into Q2, but management expects FCF to normalize over the year, with full-year conversion well over 100%.

Mechanical Components Margin Expansion

The Mechanical Components (MCS) segment posted the strongest margin expansion — ~37.6% adjusted EBITDA margin vs ~30% in Q1 FY25 — driven by the volume-price-cost (VPC) algorithm with >50% incremental conversion, mid-single-digit pricing, and cost reductions. The cost lever traces to a large 2024 MCS acquisition whose cost-reduction actions, taken in H1 2025, are still flowing through the P&L in H1 2026.

Management expects the elevated pace to modulate but sees continued expansion, with no structural reason MCS cannot eventually match the higher-margin Electronic Components segment.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.