ASML (ASML) Q4 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

What kind of restructuring costs or charges can be expected from the announced job cuts?

Management stated that the costs are subject to ongoing discussions with the Work Council and unions, but they would not be considered material in the grand scheme of ASML's numbers.

“Well, the finalization of number is very much subject to discussion, but not materially in our numbers.”

asked by Sarah Jacob · answered by R.J.M. Dassen

How much of the announced capacity expansion from customers is real, and how much is due to CapEx inflation? How sustainable is it?

Management clarified that customer announcements directly translate into demand for new systems and upgrades. They noted that the visibility for the next couple of years indicates real capacity expansion, citing recent groundbreakings by memory customers like Micron as direct translations into shipments for ASML.

“In the last 3 months, if you have listened to TSMC, Samsung, Micron. Micron has been announcing groundbreaking almost every week for the last few weeks. There, you have a direct translation basically into shipment for us.”

asked by Sarah Jacob · answered by Christophe Fouquet

How is the AI memory shortage driving ASML's business, and are memory customers more aggressive in capacity expansion than logic?

Management indicated that memory, particularly high bandwidth memory (HBM) and DDR memory, is a significant bottleneck for AI. The extremely high demand and rising DRAM prices are driving memory customers to aggressively build capacity, which has a major positive benefit for ASML.

“And our memory customers are moving very aggressively. I mentioned a few examples. And the reason for that is when you have such a demand for capacity, capacity is also market share.”

asked by Financial Times · answered by Christophe Fouquet

Is the China business declining in absolute numbers, and what is driving this decline?

Management confirmed that the China business is declining in absolute numbers. They attributed this to normalization after a period of executing on a huge backlog built up during the COVID years when the market was underserved. They expect the decline to continue, with China sales normalizing to around 20% of total sales in FY26.

“Well, it is going down in absolute numbers as well, right? So if you do the math on the system sales, if you take the chart, you take the percentage and you apply it to the total system sales, you would see that actually it goes down in system sales, I think, something like EUR 850 million.”

asked by Unknown Analyst · answered by R.J.M. Dassen

What share of EUV business growth will be High NA this year, and is there an update on Hyper NA?

Management stated that the vast majority of EUV growth in FY26 will come from low NA tools for high-volume manufacturing. High NA will continue its progression, with the first 5200B accepted. For Hyper NA, they are designing a 'high productivity platform' for the early next decade that can support Low NA, High NA, and potentially Hyper NA optics, providing flexibility for future introduction.

“So the vast share of the growth will clearly be in low NA, right? So because it all goes into high-volume manufacturing because there is such a big need for customers to grow there.”

asked by Dan · answered by R.J.M. Dassen

Given the 1,700 job cuts, is ASML planning to hire in 2026 and beyond, and will this offset the reductions?

Management explained that 1,400 new engineering positions are being created from the reduction in leadership roles. They also expect existing engineers to have more bandwidth due to simplified processes. While they will continue to hire based on need (e.g., in operations), they anticipate the gains from this transformation will fuel many programs for the next couple of years.

“So we will continue to hire people based on our need, and we do that today on operation. We'll do that if we need to on D&E because we can afford it or so, let's be honest.”

asked by [indiscernible] Novel · answered by Christophe Fouquet