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    ASTS
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    AST SpaceMobile Q1 FY26 earnings call ASTS

    May 11, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    AST SpaceMobile Q1 FY26 — scaling manufacturing and launch cadence toward 45-satellite constellation, revenue reiterated

    AST is mid-transition from R&D to scaled deployment: the story is manufacturing cadence, a multi-provider launch campaign, and spectrum/AI differentiation building toward a 45-satellite year-end constellation and first commercial service. Near-term financials are milestone-lumpy and cash-intensive, but a fortress balance sheet and reiterated full-year outlook frame 2026 as a base-building year ahead of a step-change in 2027. A New Glenn launch failure is the key execution overhang, buffered by launch-vehicle-agnostic design.

    Highlights

    5
    • Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of approximately $3.5 billion as of March 31, 2026, inclusive of a February convertible-notes raise (2.25% 10-year coupon, $116.30 effective strike)

    • Achieved peak data speed of 98.9 Mbps to unmodified off-the-shelf smartphones over international waters using in-orbit Block 1 satellites

    • Over $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments from commercial partners; ecosystem of nearly 60 global MNO partners covering over 3 billion subscribers

    • FCC authorization granted to operate the BlueBird constellation commercially in the US on premium low-band spectrum with Verizon, AT&T and FirstNet

    • New partnerships signed: Telus as second Canada partner (with equity investment) and Axian Telecom across 11 African countries; 3 additional US government awards through prime contractors

    Concerns

    5
    • BlueBird 7 was lost in a New Glenn upper-stage anomaly; Blue Origin is working through the investigation with no publicly disclosed timeline

    • Q1 revenue of $14.7 million declined sequentially due to timing of gateway deployments and government milestone completions

    • Q2 capex guided sharply higher to $575M-$650M (from ~$257M in Q1) driven by shifted launch-payment timing; heavy multi-year buildout continues to pressure cash

    • Adjusted operating expenses (ex-cost of revenues) rose to $79.8M from $66.8M and are guided higher to $85M-$95M in Q2

    • No commercial service revenue yet — commercial activation still ahead, gated on launching ~45 satellites by year-end 2026

    Guidance & targets

    16
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 total revenue
    $150 million to $200 million
    high materiality
    High
    2027 revenue opportunity
    approaching $1 billion
    high materiality
    Medium
    Sequential quarterly revenue trajectory
    grow meaningfully each subsequent quarter in 2026
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Satellites in orbit by year-end 2026
    approximately 45 BlueBird satellites
    high materiality
    Medium
    Q2 2026 adjusted operating expenses (excluding adjusted cost of revenues)
    approximately $85 million to $95 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Q2 2026 capital expenditures
    $575 million to $650 million
    high materiality
    High
    Average capital cost per Block 2 satellite (constellation of 90+)
    $21 million to $23 million per satellite
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Satellites required for continuous service in key markets (US, Europe, Japan)
    approximately 45 to 60 BlueBird satellites
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Total constellation size for global coverage
    over 100 BlueBird satellites
    high materiality
    Medium
    Next New Glenn launch stacking
    4 satellites
    low materiality
    Medium
    Peak data speed (Block 2 / next-launch satellites)
    nearly double ~98.9 Mbps (approaching ~200 Mbps peak)
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Satellite commissioning-to-activation time
    45 days target, reducing toward 2 weeks over time
    low materiality
    Medium
    AI edge computing / AI spectrum management features in satellites
    integrated into next-generation BlueBirds in production by year-end
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Manufacturing cadence target
    6 fully assembled satellites per month
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Additional MNO agreements
    additional agreements signed with increasing velocity throughout 2026
    low materiality
    Low
    Convertible debt plans for 2026
    no plans to pursue additional convertible debt in 2026
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    US Government / Defense
    Contributed to Q1 revenue via government service milestone achievements. Three new awards address secure communications and non-communications use cases; management positions these as proof points ahead of larger programs of record with billions in aggregate annual revenue potential, including Golden Dome. Revenue not separately quantified by segment.
    Existing government contracts executed in quarter: 5New government awards through prime contractors: 3Named programs: SDA Europa Track 2 (HALO), Fairwinds NTN tactical SATCOM, SDA non-communications on-orbit testing
    Commercial (MNO gateway deliveries & consulting)
    Commercial revenue driven by gateway deliveries to MNOs across 5 continents plus MNO consulting services. Total Q1 revenue of $14.7 million was split between commercial gateway deliveries and government milestones; management did not break out the dollar split. About half of the 2026 commercial pipeline is already booked or contracted.
    Commercial customers contributing to revenue in quarter: 4Contracted commercial revenue commitments: over $1.2 billionMNO ecosystem: nearly 60 partners covering over 3 billion subscribers

    Operational metrics

    18
    Non-GAAP adjusted operating expenses (total)
    $91.2 milliondown $4.5M QoQ from $95.7M in Q4 2025
    Q1 2026

    Total adjusted opex including adjusted cost of revenues.

    Adjusted operating expenses excluding adjusted cost of revenues
    $79.8 millionup from $66.8M in Q4 2025
    Q1 2026

    Core operating expense measure management guides to; Q2 guided to $85M-$95M.

    Capital expenditures
    ~$257 milliondown from ~$407M in Q4 2025; below $350M-$425M guidance
    Q1 2026

    Q2 capex guided sharply higher to $575M-$650M on the shifted launch payments.

    Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash
    ~$3.5 billion
    as of March 31, 2026

    Fortress balance sheet positioning for full constellation buildout.

    Convertible notes coupon
    2.25%
    issued February 2026

    February capital raise included in the ~$3.5B cash balance.

    Peak data speed achieved (Block 1, in-orbit)
    98.9 Mbps
    Q1 2026 (announced morning of call)

    Also cited as ~99 Mbps / 'very close to 100 Mbps' elsewhere on the call.

    Custom ASIC (AST5000) processing bandwidth per satellite
    10 GHz10x increase from ~1 GHz on FPGA satellites
    Q1 2026

    Enables intelligent allocation of the 10 GHz pipe via AI spectrum management.

    Satellites in advanced assembly
    BlueBird 11 to BlueBird 33 (23 satellites)
    as of Q1 2026

    Supports launch target of ~45 satellites in orbit by year-end 2026.

    Fixed cells deployment pace
    hundreds per week
    Q1 2026

    Part of ground-network integration and commercial readiness effort.

    Ground-network integration population coverage
    2.9 billion
    Q1 2026

    Combined population targeted across countries with active ground-integration efforts.

    Manufacturing and operations space
    over 0.5 million square feet
    Q1 2026

    Global manufacturing footprint supporting scale-up.

    Employees dedicated to composite structures
    over 1,000
    Q1 2026

    Composite structure production being automated/robotized in Midland.

    Contracted revenue commitments (commercial)
    over $1.2 billion
    as of Q1 2026

    Contracted commitments from commercial MNO partners.

    Tunable spectrum range
    ~1,100 MHz
    Q1 2026

    Low-band and mid-band tunable MNO spectrum plus own MSS holdings; some partners provide up to 100 MHz combined.

    IP portfolio
    ~3,900
    Q1 2026

    Cited as competitive moat for space-based direct-to-device cellular broadband.

    MNO ecosystem
    nearly 60 partners
    Q1 2026

    Global MNO partnerships underpin addressable subscriber base.

    Commercial customers contributing to revenue
    4
    Q1 2026

    Commercial-side execution in the quarter via gateway deliveries.

    Government contracts executed
    5 existing contracts
    Q1 2026

    Government milestone achievements drove part of Q1 revenue.

    Industry KPIs

    1
    MetricValueDetails
    M a and spectrum transactions45 MHz MSS L-band (unused) + 60 MHz S-band priority rights; ~1,100 MHz total tunableMHz

    Product announcements

    6
    ProductTypeDetails
    98.9 Mbps peak data speed milestone (Block 1 satellites)milestone
    Custom ASIC (AST5000)milestone
    AI edge computing & AI spectrum management featuresroadmap
    BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 (Falcon 9 launch)roadmap
    Satellite-to-satellite cellular broadband connectivity handoffmilestone
    FCC commercial constellation authorization (US)milestone

    Deals & partnerships

    8
    TelusMNO partnership (Canada) with equity investment

    Telus signed as AST's second partner in Canada and made an equity investment in the company; Telus and Bell will be AST's commercial partners in Canada.

    Axian TelecomMNO partnership (pan-African)

    Partnership with Axian Telecom, a pan-African operator across 11 different countries, joining existing agreements with Vodacom, Orange and MTN.

    Space Development Agency (via prime contractor)US government contract (Europa Track 2 / HALO)

    Prime contract with the Space Development Agency under the Europa Track 2 Commercial Solutions Program (HALO), focused on delivering operationally relevant tactical communications directly to government devices; milestones advanced in Q1.

    Fairwinds (prime contractor)US government contract (tactical SATCOM / NTN)

    Contracts where Fairwinds is prime, including a follow-on to previously demonstrated NTN tactical SATCOM; field test showcased real-time connectivity to a Tactical Assault Kit over VPN with multimedia streaming and secure multiparty video on unmodified smartphones, with USINDOPACOM participation.

    Space Development Agency (non-communications, via prime)US government contract (non-communications on-orbit testing)

    Contract with the Space Development Agency through a prime contractor for non-communications on-orbit testing and capability development.

    US government (3 additional awards via prime contractors)US government awards

    Three additional awards through prime contractors addressing three unique use cases across secure communications and non-communications capabilities, including those related to Golden Dome; positioned as proof points ahead of larger programs of record.

    SpaceXLaunch services (Falcon 9)

    Falcon 9 launch contract; mid-June launch of BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 from Cape Canaveral; up to 3 satellites stackable per Falcon 9.

    Blue OriginLaunch services (New Glenn)

    New Glenn launch contract (up to 8 satellites stackable); BlueBird 7 was lost in a New Glenn upper-stage anomaly and Blue Origin is working through the investigation; next New Glenn expected to carry 4 satellites.

    Risks & headwinds

    8
    BlueBird 7 lost in New Glenn upper-stage anomaly / launch execution riskQ1 2026; investigation ongoing with no public timeline

    1 satellite lost (BlueBird 7); 33 satellites in advanced production behind it

    Mitigation: Launch-vehicle-agnostic multi-provider strategy (SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA and others); optimism on Blue Origin return given landed booster and two ready boosters

    FAA investigation into the launch anomalyOngoing

    No publicly disclosed timeline

    Mitigation: Management notes such investigations are commonplace; focus on next Falcon 9 launch

    Quarterly revenue variability / lumpinessThroughout 2026

    Q1 revenue $14.7M declined sequentially on timing of gateway deployments and government milestone completions

    Mitigation: Manage top line on full-year basis; expect meaningful sequential quarterly growth; ~half of commercial pipeline booked/contracted

    Rising operating expensesQ2 2026 and ongoing

    Adjusted opex ex-cost of revenues rose to $79.8M from $66.8M; guided to $85M-$95M in Q2

    Mitigation: Framed as intentional investment in operational growth and spectrum monetization; within/around prior guidance ranges

    Heavy capital intensity / capex swings2026 and multi-year buildout

    Q1 capex ~$257M; Q2 guided to $575M-$650M; ~$21M-$23M average capital cost per Block 2 satellite for 90+ satellites

    Mitigation: ~$3.5B cash balance stated as sufficient to fund 100+ satellite buildout; no additional convertible debt planned in 2026

    Cost-per-satellite exposure to geopolitical factorsOngoing

    $21M-$23M per-satellite estimate subject to fluctuation

    Mitigation: 95% vertical integration and in-house control of bill of materials

    Commercial service not yet activatedActivation gated on year-end 2026 launch cadence

    Requires ~45-60 satellites for continuous service in key markets; ~90 for additional markets; ~100+ for global

    Mitigation: Ground-network integration and gateway hardware already positioned across 5 continents as leading indicators; 45-day commissioning target

    Competitive entry into direct-to-device (e.g. Amazon/Globalstar)Management sees no material landscape change for at least 7 years

    Competitors operate on a small fraction of the spectrum needed for broadband

    Mitigation: Spectrum depth (partner IMT + own L/S-band, up to 100 MHz with some partners), largest LEO phased array, ~3,900 patents/claims

    Q&A highlights

    8

    What happened with BlueBird 7, what gives comfort it won't repeat and that New Glenn can scale, and where does ULA integration stand for this year vs 2027+?

    Management said it was open about the BlueBird 7 loss the day it happened, characterized it as a loss with 33 satellites in advanced production behind it, and said Blue Origin is working through an upper-stage-anomaly investigation that is not uncommon early in programs. They cited Blue Origin's booster landing and two boosters ready as support for cadence, and reiterated a launch-vehicle-agnostic strategy with contracts across SpaceX, Blue Origin and others.

    So it was a loss, we're on to the next.

    asked by Christopher Schoell · answered by Scott Wisniewski

    4 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Transition from R&D to scaled operational deployment

    Management framed Q1 2026 as evidence of AST transitioning from an R&D-stage company to fully scaled operational deployment across manufacturing, MNO partner expansion, ground-network integration, multi-partner launch and balance sheet. The company holds over 0.5 million square feet of manufacturing and operations space globally and describes a 95% vertically integrated manufacturing strategy as a durable long-term advantage. Leadership stated it is producing microns, phased arrays and stackable satellite composite structures at an accelerating pace to support a target cadence of 6 fully assembled satellites per month. The call format was a scripted business update with pre-submitted shareholder questions followed by live analyst Q&A.

    02

    Manufacturing and satellite build progress

    BlueBird 11 through BlueBird 33 are in advanced stages of assembly, with phased arrays completed through BlueBird 28. The custom ASIC (AST5000) is complete and incorporated into the production line, increasing manageable bandwidth per satellite from ~1 GHz (FPGA satellites) to 10 GHz (ASIC satellites) — a factor-of-10 increase. Management clarified that peak data rates are not dependent on FPGA vs ASIC; the ASIC governs how many simultaneous connections/how the 10 GHz pipe is distributed. The company reports it now produces its full composite structures in-house, owns all related IP, and has over 1,000 people dedicated to building composite structures, with automation and robotization being extended in Midland.

    03

    Multi-provider launch strategy and BlueBird 7 loss

    AST maintains a launch-vehicle-agnostic, multi-provider strategy spanning SpaceX Falcon 9, Blue Origin New Glenn and others, with ULA Vulcan mentioned as an additional heavy-lift option in development. Stacking capacity is up to 3 on Falcon 9, up to 5 on Vulcan, and up to 8 on New Glenn/Blue Origin. The company returns to the launch pad at Cape Canaveral in mid-June with BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 on Falcon 9, targeting approximately 45 satellites in orbit by year-end. BlueBird 7 was lost in a New Glenn upper-stage anomaly; management called it a loss, noted Blue Origin is working through the investigation (no public timeline), and expressed optimism given Blue Origin landed a booster and has two boosters ready. There is also a separate FAA investigation with no publicly disclosed timeline.

    04

    Spectrum strategy and technology differentiation

    AST's satellites can tune within approximately 1,100 MHz of low-band and mid-band tunable MNO (IMT/3GPP) spectrum globally, including 45 MHz of MSS lower mid-band (L-band) spectrum and 60 MHz of licensed S-band priority rights outside North America. The 45 MHz of L-band is currently unused, presenting a monetization opportunity, and offers superior propagation versus other MSS frequencies. Management emphasized combining large phased arrays (the largest in LEO), MNO shared spectrum, MSS spectrum and AI spectrum-management features to multiply spectrum efficiency. AI spectrum management dynamically predicts user location/traffic across a satellite's ~200 sq km field of view and allocates power/spectrum square-kilometer by square-kilometer. The IP portfolio stands at approximately 3,900 patents and patent-pending claims.

    05

    US government and defense business

    AST received 3 additional US government awards through prime contractors addressing 3 unique use cases across secure communications and non-communications capabilities, positioned as proof points ahead of larger contracts including Golden Dome. During Q1 the company executed across 5 existing government contracts, advancing milestones under its Space Development Agency prime contract (Europa Track 2 Commercial Solutions Program under HALO) for tactical communications, milestones on contracts where Fairwinds is prime (follow-on to previously demonstrated NTN tactical SATCOM, including a field test with a Tactical Assault Kit over VPN and secure multiparty video on unmodified smartphones with USINDOPACOM participation), and a separate SDA contract via a prime for non-communications on-orbit testing. Management cited a Space Force budget request over $70 billion and framed non-communications defense capabilities as usable with already-deployed low-band spectrum, not requiring mid-band. The company has formed a wholly owned government and defense subsidiary.

    06

    Ground network integration and commercial readiness

    AST is scaling ground-network integration across the US, Canada, UK, India, Brazil, Spain, Germany, France, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Japan, New Zealand, Philippines, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Nigeria and Senegal — targeting a combined population of 2.9 billion people. Gateways interface directly with Nokia, and MNO cores over standard 3GPP protocols, scaling natively with 4G/5G. The company is deploying hundreds of fixed cells per week, achieved satellite-to-satellite cellular broadband connectivity handoff without disrupting the connectivity experience, and recently hit a peak data speed of 98.9 Mbps to unmodified off-the-shelf smartphones over international waters using in-orbit Block 1 satellites. Hardware to deliver initial commercial services is now positioned in respective regions across 5 continents, with commercial deployment described as an important leading indicator ahead of service activation.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.