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    ATO
    Earnings call· Mar 2025(Q2 FY25)

    ATMOS ENERGY Q2 FY25 earnings call ATO

    May 8, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Atmos Energy Q2 FY25 — EPS Guidance Raised on Strong APT Performance and Customer Growth

    Atmos Energy delivered a strong Q2 FY25, raising its full-year EPS guidance, primarily due to robust performance in its Pipeline and Storage segment and continued customer growth in Texas. The company is actively managing its regulatory processes, with significant rate case outcomes expected, and maintains a strong financial position to support its capital program and system modernization efforts.

    Highlights

    5
    • Fiscal 2025 EPS guidance raised to $7.20-$7.30, up from $7.05-$7.25, reflecting strong APT performance.

    • Added nearly 59,000 new customers over the last 12 months, with 46,000 in Texas.

    • Pipeline and Storage segment revenues increased $11.4 million, driven by 10% volume growth and higher contracted capacity.

    • Implemented $153 million in annualized regulatory outcomes year-to-date, with $175-$180 million expected in FY25.

    • Maintained a strong balance sheet with 61% equity capitalization and $5.3 billion in available liquidity.

    Concerns

    2
    • Consolidated O&M expense increased $74 million year-over-year, driven by employee costs, bad debt, and system activities.

    • Bad debt expense increased $15 million, partially due to a nonrecurring reduction in the prior year.

    Guidance & targets

    4
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Fiscal 2025 Earnings Per Share
    $7.20 to $7.30
    high materiality
    High
    Annualized Operating Income Increases from Regulatory Outcomes
    $175 million and $180 million
    medium materiality
    High
    O&M Expense (excluding bad debt)
    $860 million to $880 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Capital Spending
    approximately $3.7 billion
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Distribution
    Growth in residential, commercial, and industrial customers contributed to an increase in operating income.
    Operating income increase from residential/commercial customer growth and higher industrial load: $14.4 million YTD FY25
    Pipeline and Storage (APT)
    Revenue growth was driven by increased volumes transported and wider spreads, along with higher capacity contracted by tariff-based customers.
    Revenue increase: $11.4 million YTD FY25Volumes transported growth: 10% YTD FY25Operating income increase from higher contracted capacity: $8 million YTD FY25

    Operational metrics

    33
    Customer count
    3.4 million
    Q2 FY25

    Total customers served across 1,400 communities in 8 states.

    New customer additions
    59,000
    12 months ended March 31, 2025

    Total new customers added.

    New customer additions (Texas)
    46,000
    12 months ended March 31, 2025

    Portion of new customers located in Texas.

    Commercial customer connections
    850
    Q2 FY25

    Commercial customers connecting to the system during the second quarter.

    Commercial customer connections
    2,000
    YTD FY25

    Commercial customers connecting to the system fiscal year-to-date.

    New industrial customer additions
    9
    Q2 FY25

    New industrial customers added with anticipated annual load once fully operational.

    New industrial customer additions
    20
    YTD FY25

    New industrial customers added fiscal year-to-date with anticipated annual load once fully operational.

    Rate increases implemented
    $185 million
    Annualized

    Total annualized rate increases implemented in both operating segments.

    Consolidated O&M expense increase
    $74 million
    YTD FY25

    Increase in consolidated O&M expense year-over-year.

    O&M employee-related costs increase
    $27 million
    YTD FY25

    Increase in employee-related costs, primarily due to increased headcount and overtime.

    O&M bad debt expense increase
    $15 million
    YTD FY25

    Increase in bad debt expense, partially due to a nonrecurring reduction in the prior fiscal year.

    O&M line locating and inspection increase
    $14 million
    YTD FY25

    Increase in O&M associated with higher levels of line locating, pipeline inspection, and system monitoring activities.

    O&M APT system safety and integrity expense increase
    $9.4 million
    YTD FY25

    Increase in APT system safety and integrity expense, offset by a corresponding increase in revenue with no impact to operating income.

    Annualized regulatory outcomes implemented
    $153 million
    YTD FY25

    Annualized regulatory outcomes implemented fiscal year-to-date.

    Annualized regulatory outcomes in progress
    $389 million
    Current

    Total annualized regulatory outcomes currently in progress.

    West Texas general rate case request
    $39.2 million
    Annualized

    Amount requested in the West Texas general rate case.

    West Texas GRC recommended ROE
    9.8%
    Current

    Recommended return on equity in the West Texas general rate case proposal for decision.

    West Texas GRC recommended equity layer
    60.97%
    Current

    Recommended actual capital structure equity layer in the West Texas general rate case proposal for decision.

    West Texas GRC recommended rate base
    $1.2 billion
    Current

    Approved rate base in the West Texas general rate case proposal for decision.

    West Texas GRC expected annual operating income increase
    $30.6 million
    Annualized

    Expected increase in annual operating income if the West Texas GRC proposal is approved as filed.

    Mid-Tex GRC customer base share
    15%
    Current

    Share of Mid-Tex division's customer base represented by the consolidated general rate case.

    Mid-Tex GRC recommended rate base
    $1.1 billion
    Current

    Recommended rate base allocable to customers in the Mid-Tex general rate case proposed settlement.

    Mid-Tex GRC expected annual operating income increase
    $6.7 million
    Annualized

    Expected increase in annual operating income if the Mid-Tex GRC settlement is approved as filed.

    APT rate filing amount
    $77.2 million
    2024 filing

    Amount of APT's 2024 rate filing.

    Equity capitalization
    61%
    March 31, 2025

    Company's equity capitalization as of quarter end.

    Credit facilities total
    $3.1 billion
    Q2 FY25

    Total amount of 4 extended credit facilities.

    Available liquidity
    $5.3 billion
    March 31, 2025

    Total available liquidity to support operations.

    Customer satisfaction rating
    98%
    Q2 FY25

    Satisfaction rating received by customer support associates and service technicians.

    Energy assistance customers helped
    32,000
    First 6 months of FY25

    Number of customers helped by the customer advocacy team and customer support agents.

    Energy assistance funding provided
    $10 million
    First 6 months of FY25

    Total funding assistance received by customers through company efforts.

    Texas employment record high
    14.3 million
    April 2025

    Seasonally adjusted number of employees in Texas reached a new record high.

    Texas job growth
    192,0001.4% annual growth rate
    Last 12 months ended March

    Jobs added in Texas over the last 12 months, growing faster than the nation.

    APT additional gas supplies
    1 Bcf
    YTD FY25

    Additional gas supplies added through interconnect projects, enhancing supply reliability and versatility.

    Industry KPIs

    3
    MetricValueDetails
    Adjusted operating EPS$7.20 to $7.30USD/share
    Equity hybrid financing atm issuance$1.7 billionUSD
    CAPEX multi year capital investment planapproximately $3.7 billionUSD

    Capital programs

    2
    APT Line WA Loop Phase 2underway
    Start: Q2 FY25

    Benefit: 44 miles of 36-inch pipe

    Project to support growth in the northwestern DFW Metroplex.

    APT Bethel to Groesbeck Projectunderway

    Benefit: 55 miles of 36-inch pipe

    Project to provide additional pipeline capacity to the growing DFW Metroplex and Interstate 35 corridor.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Market volatility for APT through-system businessRemainder of FY25 and potentially FY26

    Expected to perform slightly less than prior year, with different timing of revenues

    Mitigation: Ongoing assessment of market conditions for future guidance.

    Increased O&M expensesYTD FY25

    Consolidated O&M expense increased $74 million YTD FY25

    Mitigation: Proactive spending for compliance, system safety, and maintenance; some pull-forward from future periods.

    Increased bad debt expenseYTD FY25

    Bad debt expense increased $15 million YTD FY25

    Mitigation: Partially attributed to a nonrecurring reduction in the prior year due to regulatory change.

    What to watch in Q3 FY25

    5

    APT Through-System Business Performance

    Late summer/early fall for FY26 guidance
    CurrentExpected to perform slightly less than prior year, with different timing of revenues
    TargetClarity on normalized conditions and impact on FY26 guidance

    Why it matters

    APT's through-system business significantly contributed to the FY25 EPS guidance raise, and its future performance is subject to market volatility🌐.

    As we set our fiscal '26 plans, we'll take a snapshot of market conditions, probably late summer, early fall, prior to us releasing our fiscal '26 guidance and updated 5-year plan to really reflect what we think will be truly reflective of that business for the next fiscal year.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    Is the higher FY25 EPS guidance a fair base for future growth, or should normalization of APT's through-system business be factored in for FY26 and beyond?

    Management stated that the current guidance is a safe assumption for calculating the 5-year CAGR. However, they will assess market conditions for APT's through-system business in late summer/early fall before releasing FY26 guidance and an updated 5-year plan, acknowledging market volatility.

    As we set our fiscal '26 plans, we'll take a snapshot of market conditions, probably late summer, early fall, prior to us releasing our fiscal '26 guidance and updated 5-year plan to really reflect what we think will be truly reflective of that business for the next fiscal year.

    asked by Richard Sunderland · answered by Christopher Forsythe

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Texas Economic Growth and Customer Additions

    Atmos Energy continues to benefit from robust economic growth in Texas, with the state adding nearly 192,000 jobs over the last 12 months, representing a 1.4% annual growth rate and reaching a record high of over 14.3 million employees. This strong employment trend has driven significant customer growth, with nearly 59,000 new customers added over the past 12 months, 46,000 of which are in Texas. Commercial customer additions remained solid with 850 connections in Q2 and 2,000 year-to-date, alongside 20 new industrial customers year-to-date, contributing an anticipated annual load of 11 Bcf.

    02

    APT System Modernization and Expansion

    The company is actively investing in its APT (Atmos Pipeline-Texas) system to enhance safety, reliability, and supply diversification. Key projects include Phase 2 of APT's Line WA Loop, which involves installing 44 miles of 36-inch pipe west of Fort Worth, expected to be completed by calendar year-end. The Bethel to Groesbeck project, installing 55 miles of 36-inch pipe, is scheduled for service in late calendar year 2025. Additionally, APT completed two interconnect projects in Q2, adding over 1 Bcf of gas supplies year-to-date to support LDC customers.

    03

    Regulatory Strategy and Outcomes

    Atmos Energy is making significant progress on regulatory fronts, having implemented $153 million in annualized regulatory outcomes year-to-date, with an additional $175-$180 million expected in FY25. Notable developments include a proposal for decision in the West Texas general rate case recommending a 9.8% ROE, 60.97% equity layer, $1.2 billion rate base, and approval to capitalize cloud computing costs. A proposed settlement for the Mid-Tex general rate case, representing 15% of the division's customer base, includes similar terms with a $1.1 billion rate base. These outcomes are expected to result in $30.6 million and $6.7 million annual operating income increases, respectively.

    04

    O&M Drivers and Proactive Management

    Consolidated O&M expense increased by $74 million year-over-year, primarily driven by a $27 million increase in employee-related costs due to headcount and overtime, a $15 million rise in bad debt expense, and a $14 million increase in line locating and inspection activities. The company emphasizes a proactive O&M spending approach, utilizing opportunities to pull forward📎 maintenance and compliance work during summer months to prepare for the winter heating season and enhance system safety and reliability.

    05

    Customer Service and Community Support

    Atmos Energy maintains a strong focus on customer satisfaction, achieving a 98% satisfaction rating from its customers. The company's customer advocacy team and support agents have been instrumental in assisting nearly 32,000 customers in securing over $10 million in energy assistance funding during the first half of the fiscal year, demonstrating a commitment to community support and customer well-being.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.