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Atmos Energy (ATO) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q2 FY26)· Utilities· May 7, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Atmos Energy Q2 FY26 — EPS guidance raised on Texas rulemaking rebasing and stronger APT spreads

FY26 is a rebasing year: management reset both the EPS and dividend base higher as Texas Rule 7.7102 deferrals are layered into APT and non-8.209 distribution spend, and expects steady-state 6-8% EPS growth off the new base thereafter. Near-term upside is riding on volatile APT through-system spreads tied to constrained Permian takeaway, which management frames cautiously ahead of the summer power-gen season.

Highlights

5
  • Year-to-date net income of $985M, or $5.92 per diluted share, up 12.5% over the prior-year period

  • Raised FY26 EPS guidance to $8.40-$8.50 from an original $8.15-$8.25 (sic $8.35) range

  • Added over 51,000 new customers for the 12 months ending March 31, 2026 (over 39,000 in Texas), plus 800+ commercial and 4 new industrial customers in Q2

  • APT captured through-system spreads averaging $4.35 in H1 FY26 vs. $1.80 a year ago, adding $16M/$0.08 period-over-period

  • Dividend rebased roughly 15% year-over-year alongside the EPS rebasing

Concerns

4
  • Excluding Rule 7.7102 deferrals, consolidated O&M rose $27M on higher employee, compliance, safety and APT maintenance spending

  • Permian/Waha natural gas pricing expected to remain challenging for the remainder of FY26 despite modest recent improvement

  • APT through-system revenue is inherently volatile, dependent on pipeline capacity and Texas gas pricing dynamics

  • Large ATM/equity program left unpriced in Q2 amid geopolitical and economic volatility, deferring FY27 equity funding

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full-year FY26 adjusted diluted EPS
$8.40-$8.50
high materiality
High
Long-term EPS growth rate
6% to 8%
high materiality
High
APT through-system business EPS contribution (H2 FY26)
additional $0.08 to $0.12
high materiality
Medium
Rule 7.7102 deferral impact (full-year FY26)
$155M to $165M (pretax)
high materiality
High
Consolidated O&M expense (FY26)
$865M to $885M
medium materiality
High
Interest expense (FY26)
$155M to $160M
medium materiality
High
Full-year FY26 capital expenditures
approximately $4.2 billion
high materiality
High
Distribution segment annualized operating income increases from pending rate filings
~$600M sought across 13 filings; ~40% expected to be implemented in H2 FY26
high materiality
Medium
Dividend growth
incremental growth (post-rebasing)
medium materiality
Medium

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Distribution
Distribution recognized $44M of the $94M year-to-date HB 4384 benefit. Excluding Rule 7.7102 deferrals, the segment saw higher employee, compliance and safety-related spending. Regulatory recovery is progressing with $136M implemented and ~$600M sought across 13 pending filings.
Texas HB 4384 / Rule 7.7102 benefit (YTD): $44MAnnualized operating income increases implemented since start of FY26: $136MPending rate filings: 13 filings seeking ~$600M annualized operating income increases
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APT (Atmos Pipeline Texas)
APT recognized $50M of the $94M year-to-date HB 4384 benefit and was the key incremental earnings driver via through-system spreads. Higher maintenance spending was noted. System investments (Line WA Phase 2, 5 interconnects) support DFW-area LDC growth. The $112M APT rate filing was pending Texas Railroad Commission consideration on May 12, 2026.
Texas HB 4384 / Rule 7.7102 benefit (YTD): $50MThrough-system revenue net of Rider REV (YoY increase): +$16M / +$0.08Average captured spread H1 FY26: $4.35 (vs $1.80 prior year)Pending APT rate filing: $112M annualized operating income increases (RRC consideration May 12, 2026)Line WA Phase 2: ~44 miles of 36-inch pipeline installedInterconnect projects completed: 5, adding ~100,000 Mcf/day supplyRider REV credits returned to customers over last 3 years: ~$150M
————

ATO operating KPIs by quarter

ATO operating KPIs stated on its earnings calls, by fiscal quarter
KPI Mar 2025 Q2 FY25 Jun 2025 Q3 FY25Change vs prior quarter
Customers
3.4M This performance continues to reflect the commitment, dedication, focus and effort of all Atmos Energy employees to successfully modernize our natural gas distribution, transmission and storage systems, while safely providing reliable natural gas service to 3.4 million customers across 1,400 communities in 8 states. Source: earnings call transcript
3.4M This performance continues to reflect the commitment, dedication, focus and effort of all Atmos Energy employees to successfully modernize our natural gas distribution, transmission and storage systems, while safely providing reliable natural gas service to 3.4 million customers from 1,400 communities across 8 states. Source: earnings call transcript
0%

Operating figures the company stated on at least two of the calls shown, checked against each call's transcript. Click a figure to read the sentence. A dash means it was not stated that quarter.

Capital programs

FY26 capital expenditure program underway / on track ~$4.2B (FY26)
Period spend: $2B in H1 FY26
Spent to date: $2B (H1 FY26)
Funding: debt + equity (forward sale agreements / ATM); no short-term debt outstanding
Start: FY26

Benefit:over 89% of H1 spend focused on safety and reliability of distribution, transmission and underground storage systems

Management remains on track to spend approximately $4.2B in FY26; H1 capex totaled $2B.

Line WA project (Phase 2) completed (Phase 2)

Benefit:~44 miles of 36-inch pipeline west of Fort Worth to support DFW Metroplex growth

APT completed Phase 2 of the Line WA project during Q2 FY26, installing approximately 44 miles of 36-inch pipeline to support growth west of Fort Worth.

Risks & headwinds

Permian / Waha natural gas pricing volatility Remainder of FY26 and beyond

Captured spreads averaged $4.35 in H1 FY26 vs $1.80 prior year; H2 contribution guided at $0.08-$0.12

Mitigation:Management monitoring monthly; APT through-system contribution guided conservatively; not yet into summer power-gen/heating season. Rider REV shares ~75% of excess revenue with customers.

Underlying O&M cost inflation (ex-deferrals) FY26

Consolidated O&M up $27M in H1 FY26 excluding Rule 7.7102 deferrals

Mitigation:Rule 7.7102 deferrals substantially offset the increase in reported O&M; FY26 O&M guided to $865M-$885M.

Equity market / financing conditions volatility FY26-FY27

No ATM priced in Q2 FY26; ~$890M forward proceeds available for remaining FY26 and part of FY27 needs

Mitigation:Fully priced for FY26 and partially for FY27; management opportunistically timing pricing ('keep our powder dry').

Regulatory / rate case outcome risk H2 FY26

13 filings seeking ~$600M annualized operating income increases; ~40% expected to implement in Q3; APT $112M filing pending RRC decision May 12, 2026

Mitigation:Diversified filing portfolio; Texas Rule 7.7102 structurally reduces regulatory lag on non-8.209 capital.

Interest rate / financing cost exposure FY26

FY26 interest expense guided $155M-$160M (increase solely from 7.7102 reclassification, not economic)

Mitigation:No short-term debt outstanding; $3.1B credit facilities extended; 61% equity capitalization.

Q&A highlights

Is the ~15% dividend increase sustainable, and do you intend to keep raising above trend?

Management reiterated a 6-8% EPS growth target with incremental dividend growth. The ~15% YoY increase reflects a one-time rebasing of both dividend and EPS due to the Texas Rule 7.7102 impact; the growth rate converges back to trend thereafter.

“that 15% year-over-year is reflective of the dividend being rebased in addition to rebasing the earnings per share because of the expected impact from Texas Rule 7.7102”

asked by Paul Zimbardo (on for Julien Dumoulin-Smith) · answered by Christopher Forsythe

3 min read 7 chapters

Detailed narrative

Texas Rule 7.7102 (HB 4384) — Regulatory Lag Reduction and FY26 Rebasing

The central story of the quarter is the finalization of Texas House Bill 4384, codified into Rule 7.7102, which reduces regulatory lag by permitting gas utilities to defer post-in-service carrying costs, depreciation and ad valorem taxes on non-Rule-8.209-eligible capital such as new customer growth and system expansion.

Year-to-date results include $94 million ($0.43) of HB 4384 benefit — $44M in Distribution and $50M at APT. With final rulemaking now complete, management elected to present the deferral of post-in-service carrying costs in the income-statement lines where the costs were originally incurred (O&M and interest), which reduced reported H1 O&M by $41 million.

Management estimates the full-year FY26 impact at $155M-$165M pretax, higher than originally budgeted, and characterizes FY26 as a one-time rebasing year with no further rebasing expected into FY27.

APT Through-System Business and Waha/Permian Pricing

APT's through-system business was a key earnings driver, adding $16 million ($0.08) year-over-year in H1 FY26. Captured spreads averaged $4.35 in H1 FY26 versus $1.80 in the prior-year period, reflecting constrained takeaway capacity, rising associated gas production, and lower demand from an unseasonably warm winter heating season.

Management expects an additional $0.08-$0.12 contribution in H2 FY26, contemplating April Waha activity, while cautioning that Permian pricing will remain challenging for the remainder of the fiscal year despite modest recent moderation from historic highs. LDC customers behind APT benefit from the Rider REV tariff, which shares roughly 75% of APT's other revenue above a specified benchmark — approximately $150 million returned to customers over the last three years.

APT System Investment — Line WA and Interconnects

During Q2, APT completed Phase 2 of the Line WA project, installing approximately 44 miles of 36-inch pipeline to the west of Fort Worth to support growth in the DFW Metroplex. APT also completed 5 interconnect projects, adding nearly 100,000 Mcf per day of additional natural gas supply to the system.

These investments enhance supply optionality, reliability, versatility and diversification, and support the continued growth of the local distribution companies behind the APT city gate.

Customer Growth and Economic Development

Atmos added over 51,000 new customers for the 12 months ending March 31, 2026, with over 39,000 located in Texas. During Q2 alone the company added over 800 commercial customers and 4 new industrial customers, with continued industrial account additions across Kentucky, Tennessee, and the Virginia area.

Management pointed to broad-based residential, commercial and industrial demand as evidence of natural gas's role in regional economic development, with the Dallas-Fort Worth area highlighted as a particular area of strength.

Regulatory Filings and Recovery Cadence

Since the start of FY26, Atmos has implemented $136 million of annualized operating income increases in its Distribution segment. It currently has 13 filings in progress seeking nearly $600 million in annualized operating income increases, of which approximately 40% is expected to be implemented primarily in fiscal Q3.

The largest pending filing — APT's Rate filing seeking $112 million in annualized operating income increases — was scheduled for consideration by the Texas Railroad Commission on May 12, 2026, days after the call.

Balance Sheet, Liquidity and Equity Funding

Equity capitalization stood at 61% as of March 31, with no short-term debt outstanding. Atmos extended its four credit facilities providing $3.1 billion in total liquidity and had $4.1 billion in available liquidity at quarter end, including approximately $890 million in net proceeds available under existing forward sale agreements.

That forward amount is expected to satisfy the remainder of FY26 equity needs and a portion of FY27 needs. No ATM was priced during Q2 — management chose to 'keep our powder dry' given geopolitical and economic volatility, and will opportunistically advance FY27 equity funding.

Recognition and Customer Assistance

Atmos achieved customer satisfaction ratings of 97% for the first six months of the fiscal year. Its customer advocacy team helped over 33,000 customers receive approximately $9.5 million in funding assistance during H1. The company was named to the Forbes list of America's best large employers for the sixth consecutive year, ranking among the top 100 employers overall and second among all utilities.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.