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    ATO
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q2 FY26)

    ATMOS ENERGY Q2 FY26 earnings call ATO

    May 7, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Atmos Energy Q2 FY26 — EPS guidance raised on Texas rulemaking rebasing and stronger APT spreads

    FY26 is a rebasing year: management reset both the EPS and dividend base higher as Texas Rule 7.7102 deferrals are layered into APT and non-8.209 distribution spend, and expects steady-state 6-8% EPS growth off the new base thereafter. Near-term upside is riding on volatile APT through-system spreads tied to constrained Permian takeaway, which management frames cautiously ahead of the summer power-gen season.

    Highlights

    5
    • Year-to-date net income of $985M, or $5.92 per diluted share, up 12.5% over the prior-year period

    • Raised FY26 EPS guidance to $8.40-$8.50 from an original $8.15-$8.25 (sic $8.35) range

    • Added over 51,000 new customers for the 12 months ending March 31, 2026 (over 39,000 in Texas), plus 800+ commercial and 4 new industrial customers in Q2

    • APT captured through-system spreads averaging $4.35 in H1 FY26 vs. $1.80 a year ago, adding $16M/$0.08 period-over-period

    • Dividend rebased roughly 15% year-over-year alongside the EPS rebasing

    Concerns

    4
    • Excluding Rule 7.7102 deferrals, consolidated O&M rose $27M on higher employee, compliance, safety and APT maintenance spending

    • Permian/Waha natural gas pricing expected to remain challenging for the remainder of FY26 despite modest recent improvement

    • APT through-system revenue is inherently volatile, dependent on pipeline capacity and Texas gas pricing dynamics

    • Large ATM/equity program left unpriced in Q2 amid geopolitical and economic volatility, deferring FY27 equity funding

    Guidance & targets

    9
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year FY26 adjusted diluted EPS
    $8.40-$8.50
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term EPS growth rate
    6% to 8%
    high materiality
    High
    APT through-system business EPS contribution (H2 FY26)
    additional $0.08 to $0.12
    high materiality
    Medium
    Rule 7.7102 deferral impact (full-year FY26)
    $155M to $165M (pretax)
    high materiality
    High
    Consolidated O&M expense (FY26)
    $865M to $885M
    medium materiality
    High
    Interest expense (FY26)
    $155M to $160M
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year FY26 capital expenditures
    approximately $4.2 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Distribution segment annualized operating income increases from pending rate filings
    ~$600M sought across 13 filings; ~40% expected to be implemented in H2 FY26
    high materiality
    Medium
    Dividend growth
    incremental growth (post-rebasing)
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Distribution
    Distribution recognized $44M of the $94M year-to-date HB 4384 benefit. Excluding Rule 7.7102 deferrals, the segment saw higher employee, compliance and safety-related spending. Regulatory recovery is progressing with $136M implemented and ~$600M sought across 13 pending filings.
    Texas HB 4384 / Rule 7.7102 benefit (YTD): $44MAnnualized operating income increases implemented since start of FY26: $136MPending rate filings: 13 filings seeking ~$600M annualized operating income increases
    APT (Atmos Pipeline Texas)
    APT recognized $50M of the $94M year-to-date HB 4384 benefit and was the key incremental earnings driver via through-system spreads. Higher maintenance spending was noted. System investments (Line WA Phase 2, 5 interconnects) support DFW-area LDC growth. The $112M APT rate filing was pending Texas Railroad Commission consideration on May 12, 2026.
    Texas HB 4384 / Rule 7.7102 benefit (YTD): $50MThrough-system revenue net of Rider REV (YoY increase): +$16M / +$0.08Average captured spread H1 FY26: $4.35 (vs $1.80 prior year)Pending APT rate filing: $112M annualized operating income increases (RRC consideration May 12, 2026)Line WA Phase 2: ~44 miles of 36-inch pipeline installedInterconnect projects completed: 5, adding ~100,000 Mcf/day supplyRider REV credits returned to customers over last 3 years: ~$150M

    Operational metrics

    14
    Net income
    $985MYoY EPS up 12.5%
    H1 FY26 (6 months ended March 31, 2026)

    Year-to-date fiscal '26 net income; EPS of $5.92 represents a 12.5% increase over the prior-year period.

    Texas HB 4384 / Rule 7.7102 benefit
    $94M
    H1 FY26

    Year-to-date benefit from Texas House Bill 4384 codified as Rule 7.7102; split $44M Distribution / $50M APT. Reclassification of post-in-service carrying-cost deferrals reduced reported H1 O&M by $41M.

    Consolidated O&M increase (ex-Rule 7.7102 deferrals)
    $27MYoY increase
    H1 FY26

    Underlying O&M growth excluding the Rule 7.7102 deferral effect.

    APT through-system revenue net of Rider REV
    +$16M+$0.08 YoY
    H1 FY26

    Substantially all of the increase reflected higher spreads realized in FY26 vs FY25.

    APT captured spread
    $4.35vs $1.80 prior-year period
    H1 FY26

    Average through-system spread captured; the driver of the higher APT through-system revenue.

    Operating income from customer growth and load
    +$32MYoY increase
    H1 FY26

    Operating income increase due to residential and commercial customer growth and increased customer load.

    Net customer additions
    over 51,000
    12 months ending March 31, 2026

    Broad-based growth across residential, commercial and industrial classes; Texas the largest contributor. Note: opening remarks say 51,000+ / 39,000+; in Q&A management referenced ~53,000 total for the same 12-month period.

    Rate filings implemented (annualized operating income increases)
    $136M
    since start of FY26

    Annualized operating income increases already implemented in the Distribution segment during FY26.

    Equity capitalization ratio
    61%
    as of March 31, 2026

    Balance-sheet strength metric; no short-term debt outstanding at quarter end.

    Available liquidity
    $4.1B
    as of March 31, 2026

    Includes ~$890M net proceeds under existing forward sale agreements, expected to satisfy remaining FY26 equity needs and part of FY27.

    Customer satisfaction rating
    97%
    first 6 months of FY26

    Customer satisfaction rating achieved by customer support associates and service technicians.

    Customer funding assistance
    ~$9.5M
    H1 FY26

    Customer advocacy team helped over 33,000 customers receive funding assistance.

    APT supply added via interconnects
    ~100,000
    Q2 FY26

    Additional natural gas supply added to the APT system through 5 completed interconnect projects.

    Rider REV customer credits (cumulative)
    ~$150M
    last 3 years

    Total credits returned to LDC customers behind APT via the Rider REV tariff over the last three years.

    Industry KPIs

    8
    MetricValueDetails
    Retail sales growthover 51,000 net customer additions (12 months ending March 31, 2026)customers
    Adjusted operating EPS$5.92USD/share
    Dividend per share growth~15% YoY increase%
    Regulatory rate base growth
    Allowed authorized ROE equity layer
    Equity hybrid financing atm issuancenothing priced in Q2 FY26
    Segment driver EPS contribution bridgeUSD/share
    CAPEX multi year capital investment plan~$4.2BUSD

    Capital programs

    2
    FY26 capital expenditure programunderway / on track~$4.2B (FY26)
    Period spend: $2B in H1 FY26
    Spent to date: $2B (H1 FY26)
    Funding: debt + equity (forward sale agreements / ATM); no short-term debt outstanding
    Start: FY26

    Benefit: over 89% of H1 spend focused on safety and reliability of distribution, transmission and underground storage systems

    Management remains on track to spend approximately $4.2B in FY26; H1 capex totaled $2B.

    Line WA project (Phase 2)completed (Phase 2)

    Benefit: ~44 miles of 36-inch pipeline west of Fort Worth to support DFW Metroplex growth

    APT completed Phase 2 of the Line WA project during Q2 FY26, installing approximately 44 miles of 36-inch pipeline to support growth west of Fort Worth.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Permian / Waha natural gas pricing volatilityRemainder of FY26 and beyond

    Captured spreads averaged $4.35 in H1 FY26 vs $1.80 prior year; H2 contribution guided at $0.08-$0.12

    Mitigation: Management monitoring monthly; APT through-system contribution guided conservatively; not yet into summer power-gen/heating season. Rider REV shares ~75% of excess revenue with customers.

    Underlying O&M cost inflation (ex-deferrals)FY26

    Consolidated O&M up $27M in H1 FY26 excluding Rule 7.7102 deferrals

    Mitigation: Rule 7.7102 deferrals substantially offset the increase in reported O&M; FY26 O&M guided to $865M-$885M.

    Equity market / financing conditions volatilityFY26-FY27

    No ATM priced in Q2 FY26; ~$890M forward proceeds available for remaining FY26 and part of FY27 needs

    Mitigation: Fully priced for FY26 and partially for FY27; management opportunistically timing pricing ('keep our powder dry').

    Regulatory / rate case outcome riskH2 FY26

    13 filings seeking ~$600M annualized operating income increases; ~40% expected to implement in Q3; APT $112M filing pending RRC decision May 12, 2026

    Mitigation: Diversified filing portfolio; Texas Rule 7.7102 structurally reduces regulatory lag on non-8.209 capital.

    Interest rate / financing cost exposureFY26

    FY26 interest expense guided $155M-$160M (increase solely from 7.7102 reclassification, not economic)

    Mitigation: No short-term debt outstanding; $3.1B credit facilities extended; 61% equity capitalization.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Is the ~15% dividend increase sustainable, and do you intend to keep raising above trend?

    Management reiterated a 6-8% EPS growth target with incremental dividend growth. The ~15% YoY increase reflects a one-time rebasing of both dividend and EPS due to the Texas Rule 7.7102 impact; the growth rate converges back to trend thereafter.

    that 15% year-over-year is reflective of the dividend being rebased in addition to rebasing the earnings per share because of the expected impact from Texas Rule 7.7102

    asked by Paul Zimbardo (on for Julien Dumoulin-Smith) · answered by Christopher Forsythe

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Texas Rule 7.7102 (HB 4384) — Regulatory Lag Reduction and FY26 Rebasing

    The central story of the quarter is the finalization of Texas House Bill 4384, codified into Rule 7.7102, which reduces regulatory lag by permitting gas utilities to defer post-in-service carrying costs, depreciation and ad valorem taxes on non-Rule-8.209-eligible capital such as new customer growth and system expansion. Year-to-date results include $94 million ($0.43) of HB 4384 benefit — $44M in Distribution and $50M at APT. With final rulemaking now complete, management elected to present the deferral of post-in-service carrying costs in the income-statement lines where the costs were originally incurred (O&M and interest), which reduced reported H1 O&M by $41 million. Management estimates the full-year FY26 impact at $155M-$165M pretax, higher than originally budgeted, and characterizes FY26 as a one-time📎 rebasing year with no further rebasing expected into FY27.

    02

    APT Through-System Business and Waha/Permian Pricing

    APT's through-system business was a key earnings driver, adding $16 million ($0.08) year-over-year in H1 FY26. Captured spreads averaged $4.35 in H1 FY26 versus $1.80 in the prior-year period, reflecting constrained takeaway capacity, rising associated gas production, and lower demand from an unseasonably warm winter heating season. Management expects an additional $0.08-$0.12 contribution in H2 FY26, contemplating April Waha activity, while cautioning that Permian pricing will remain challenging for the remainder of the fiscal year despite modest recent moderation from historic highs. LDC customers behind APT benefit from the Rider REV tariff, which shares roughly 75% of APT's other revenue above a specified benchmark — approximately $150 million returned to customers over the last three years.

    03

    APT System Investment — Line WA and Interconnects

    During Q2, APT completed Phase 2 of the Line WA project, installing approximately 44 miles of 36-inch pipeline to the west of Fort Worth to support growth in the DFW Metroplex. APT also completed 5 interconnect projects, adding nearly 100,000 Mcf per day of additional natural gas supply to the system. These investments enhance supply optionality, reliability, versatility and diversification, and support the continued growth of the local distribution companies behind the APT city gate.

    04

    Customer Growth and Economic Development

    Atmos added over 51,000 new customers for the 12 months ending March 31, 2026, with over 39,000 located in Texas. During Q2 alone the company added over 800 commercial customers and 4 new industrial customers, with continued industrial account additions across Kentucky, Tennessee, and the Virginia area. Management pointed to broad-based residential, commercial and industrial demand as evidence of natural gas's role in regional economic development, with the Dallas-Fort Worth area highlighted as a particular area of strength.

    05

    Regulatory Filings and Recovery Cadence

    Since the start of FY26, Atmos has implemented $136 million of annualized operating income increases in its Distribution segment. It currently has 13 filings in progress seeking nearly $600 million in annualized operating income increases, of which approximately 40% is expected to be implemented primarily in fiscal Q3. The largest pending filing — APT's Rate filing seeking $112 million in annualized operating income increases — was scheduled for consideration by the Texas Railroad Commission on May 12, 2026, days after the call.

    06

    Balance Sheet, Liquidity and Equity Funding

    Equity capitalization stood at 61% as of March 31, with no short-term debt outstanding. Atmos extended its four credit facilities providing $3.1 billion in total liquidity and had $4.1 billion in available liquidity at quarter end, including approximately $890 million in net proceeds available under existing forward sale agreements. That forward amount is expected to satisfy the remainder of FY26 equity needs and a portion of FY27 needs. No ATM was priced during Q2 — management chose to 'keep our powder dry' given geopolitical and economic volatility, and will opportunistically advance FY27 equity funding.

    07

    Recognition and Customer Assistance

    Atmos achieved customer satisfaction ratings of 97% for the first six months of the fiscal year. Its customer advocacy team helped over 33,000 customers receive approximately $9.5 million in funding assistance during H1. The company was named to the Forbes list of America's best large employers for the sixth consecutive year, ranking among the top 100 employers overall and second among all utilities.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.