Skip to content
    ATO
    Earnings call· Jun 2025(Q3 FY25)

    ATMOS ENERGY Q3 FY25 earnings call ATO

    Aug 7, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Atmos Energy Q3 FY25 — Strong Earnings and Updated Guidance Driven by Regulatory Outcomes and Texas Legislation

    Atmos Energy reported strong Q3 FY25 results, driven by favorable regulatory outcomes and robust customer growth across its service territories. The company raised its fiscal '25 EPS guidance to $7.35-$7.45, incorporating a $0.10 benefit from new Texas legislation (HB 4384) which expands capital spending eligible for deferral treatment. Management also provided an initial FY26 EPS growth target of 6-8%, signaling continued confidence in its long-term investment strategy and the vital role of natural gas in economic development, including new data center demand.

    Highlights

    5
    • Updated fiscal '25 earnings per share guidance to a range of $7.35 to $7.45, an increase from the prior range of $7.20 to $7.30.

    • Implemented $351 million in annualized regulatory outcomes fiscal year-to-date, reflecting increased safety and reliability spending.

    • Added nearly 58,000 new residential customers and over 2,500 new commercial customers fiscal year-to-date, demonstrating strong customer growth.

    • Secured a contract to transport approximately 30 Bcf of natural gas annually to a data center in the Abilene area.

    • Achieved a 97% customer satisfaction rating and provided $17.5 million in funding assistance to over 48,000 customers.

    Concerns

    1
    • Consolidated O&M increased $85 million, primarily due to higher employee-related costs, increased line locate/inspection activities, and higher bad debt expense.

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Fiscal 2025 Diluted EPS
    $7.35 to $7.45
    high materiality
    High
    Fiscal 2026 Diluted EPS Growth
    6% to 8% annually
    high materiality
    Medium
    Fiscal 2025 O&M (excluding bad debt expense)
    $860 million to $880 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Fiscal 2025 Capital Spending
    $3.7 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Q4 FY25 EPS impact from Texas legislation (HB 4384)
    $0.10
    high materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    26
    Net income
    $1 billion
    YTD FY25

    Reported year-to-date fiscal '25 net income.

    Diluted EPS
    $6.40vs $6.00 prior year
    YTD FY25

    Diluted earnings per share for year-to-date fiscal '25, compared to $6.00 in the prior year period.

    Operating income increase from regulatory outcomes
    $322 million
    YTD FY25

    Increase in operating income driven by regulatory outcomes in both segments.

    Operating income increase from customer growth
    $22 million
    YTD FY25

    Increase in operating income from residential customer growth and rising industrial load in the distribution segment.

    APT revenue increase from throughput
    $12.5 million
    YTD FY25

    Revenues in the pipeline and storage segment increased primarily due to increased throughput, with $11 million recognized in the first 6 months.

    APT revenue increase from capacity contracted
    $12.5 million
    YTD FY25

    Increase due to higher capacity contracted by tariff-based customers due to their increased peak day demand.

    Consolidated O&M increase
    $85 million
    YTD FY25

    Increase primarily due to higher employee-related costs, line locate/inspection activities, and higher bad debt expense.

    Nonrecurring bad debt expense reduction
    $14 million
    Q1 FY24

    Nonrecurring reduction in bad debt expense in Q1 FY24 due to a regulatory change in Mississippi.

    Equity capitalization
    60%
    Q3 FY25

    Financial position remains strong with 60% equity capitalization.

    Liquidity
    $5.5 billion
    Q3 FY25

    Total liquidity available at the end of the third fiscal quarter.

    Net proceeds available under forward sale agreements
    $1.7 billion
    Q3 FY25

    Amount available under existing forward sale agreements, satisfying FY25, FY26, and a portion of FY27 equity needs.

    Weighted-average cost of debt
    4.17%
    Q3 FY25

    Overall weighted-average cost of debt as of June 30.

    Weighted-average maturity of debt
    17 years
    Q3 FY25

    Debt profile remains very manageable with a weighted-average maturity of approximately 17 years.

    Annualized regulatory outcomes implemented
    $351 million
    YTD FY25

    Total annualized regulatory outcomes implemented fiscal year-to-date.

    Annualized regulatory outcomes in progress
    $229 million
    Q3 FY25

    Annualized outcomes currently in progress, expected to be implemented in Q1 FY26.

    New residential customers
    58,000
    12 months ended June 30, 2025

    Nearly 58,000 new residential customers added, with almost 45,000 in Texas.

    New commercial customers
    2,500
    YTD FY25

    Approximately 2,500 new commercial customers connected to the system fiscal year-to-date.

    New industrial customers
    22
    YTD FY25

    22 new industrial customers added fiscal year-to-date, with 3 added during the third quarter.

    Anticipated annual load from new industrial customers
    3.4 Bcf
    Annual

    Anticipated annual load from new industrial customers once fully operational, comparable to adding 67,000 residential customers.

    Customer satisfaction rating
    97%
    Q3 FY25

    Customer support associates and service technicians received a 97% satisfaction rating.

    Funding assistance to customers
    $17.5 million
    9 months FY25

    Helped over 48,000 customers receive nearly $17.5 million in funding assistance during the first 9 months of the fiscal year.

    Texas job growth
    1.4%
    12 months ended June

    Texas added over 198,000 jobs, representing a 1.4% annual growth rate, faster than the nation.

    Capital spending dedicated to safety and reliability
    86%
    YTD FY25

    86% of consolidated capital spending is dedicated to improving the safety and reliability of the system.

    Capital spending eligible for Texas deferral treatment
    80%vs 45% prior
    Future

    Applying the language of HB 4384 means approximately 80% of total capital spending is eligible for Texas deferral treatment, up from 45% previously.

    APT through-system business contribution
    in line with fiscal '24
    FY25

    Expected contribution from APT's through-system business in fiscal '25 will be in line with fiscal '24.

    O&M trend
    approximately $10 million lowervs prior year Q4
    Q4 FY25

    Anticipate O&M in the fourth fiscal quarter will trend approximately $10 million lower than the prior year's fourth quarter.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Retail sales growth1.4%%
    Adjusted operating EPS$6.40USD/share
    Regulatory rate base growth$351 millionUSD
    Equity hybrid financing atm issuance$1.7 billionUSD
    Large load data center demand pipeline30 Bcfannually
    CAPEX multi year capital investment plan$3.7 billionUSD

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Undisclosed customerContract to transport natural gas for data center power generation30 Bcf annually

    APT entered into a contract to transport natural gas to a customer that will generate on-site power to serve a data center in the Abilene area. The data center is expected to be fully operational by the end of the calendar year, at which time APT anticipates providing approximately 30 Bcf of gas annually.

    Capital programs

    1
    Fiscal 2025 Capital Spending Planunderway$3.7 billion
    Period spend: $2.6 billion
    Spent to date: $2.6 billion
    Start: FY25

    Benefit: 86% dedicated to improving safety and reliability

    The company remains on track to spend approximately $3.7 billion this fiscal year, with $2.6 billion spent year-to-date. 86% of this spending is dedicated to improving system safety and reliability.

    Risks & headwinds

    2
    Increased O&M costsYTD FY25

    $85 million increase YTD FY25

    Mitigation: Expect Q4 FY25 O&M to trend approximately $10 million lower than prior year Q4; full-year O&M (excluding bad debt) expected within $860M-$880M range.

    Volatility in APT's through-system businessFY26 and beyond

    Spreads and volumes can fluctuate

    Mitigation: Anticipating a more normal operating environment in FY26, but will adjust based on market conditions (summer cooling load, production levels).

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    Full update to FY26 EPS guidance and 5-year plan

    November (Q4 earnings call)
    CurrentInitial FY26 EPS growth target of 6-8% annually
    TargetSpecific FY26 EPS guidance range and detailed 5-year plan

    Why it matters

    This will provide a comprehensive outlook on the company's future earnings trajectory and capital allocation strategy, crucial for investment thesis validation.

    We will provide a full update to our fiscal 2026 earnings per share guidance and a full update to our 5-year plan during our fiscal fourth quarter earnings call in November.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Clarify if the $0.10 EPS increase from Texas legislation is a half-year impact booked in Q4, and how it relates to the total potential uplift.

    The $0.10 reflects the impact of the legislation for approximately one quarter, starting from its effective date of June 20, 2025, through the end of fiscal 2025.

    So the $0.10 reflects the impact of legislation beginning June 20 when the legislation became effective the end of fiscal 2025. So effectively 1 quarter.

    asked by Richard Sunderland · answered by Christopher Forsythe

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strong Financial Performance and Updated Guidance

    Atmos Energy reported year-to-date fiscal '25 net income of $1 billion, translating to $6.40 per diluted share. The company updated its fiscal '25 EPS guidance to a range of $7.35 to $7.45, up from the previous $7.20 to $7.30. This upward revision incorporates a $0.10 benefit in Q4 FY25 from new Texas legislation and improved pass-through collections. For fiscal '26, the company anticipates EPS to grow in a range of 6% to 8% annually, with a full update to the 5-year plan expected in November.

    02

    Impact of Texas House Bill 4384

    New Texas legislation, House Bill 4384, effective June 20, 2025, significantly enhances Atmos Energy's ability to defer capital investments for future recovery. This bill authorizes gas utilities to defer post-in-service carrying costs, depreciation, and ad valorem taxes for unrecovered gas gross plant associated with new customer growth and system expansion. Previously, approximately 45% of total capital spending qualified for Rule 8.209 treatment; with HB 4384, this increases to approximately 80%, with the majority of the new eligible capital associated with APT.

    03

    Robust Customer Growth and Economic Development

    The company continues to experience strong customer growth across its service territories, particularly in Texas. For the 12 months ended June 30, 2025, Atmos Energy added nearly 58,000 new residential customers, with 45,000 in Texas. Commercial customer growth remained solid with over 2,500 new connections fiscal year-to-date. Additionally, 22 new industrial customers were added fiscal year-to-date, bringing an anticipated annual load of approximately 3.4 Bcf once fully operational, comparable to adding 67,000 residential customers.

    04

    Emerging Data Center Demand

    Atmos Energy is actively engaging with the growing demand from large-load customers, including data centers. During the third quarter, APT secured a contract to transport natural gas to a customer generating on-site power for a data center in the Abilene area. This data center is expected to be fully operational by the end of the calendar year, with APT anticipating providing approximately 30 Bcf of gas annually. Revenues from this contract are included in APT's Rider REV mechanism, benefiting LDC customers.

    05

    Regulatory Success and Capital Investment

    The company's financial results were significantly bolstered by regulatory outcomes, contributing $322 million to operating income. Fiscal year-to-date, $351 million in annualized regulatory outcomes have been implemented, with an additional $229 million in progress, expected to be implemented in Q1 FY26. Consolidated capital spending increased 22% to $2.6 billion year-to-date, with a full-year target of $3.7 billion, 86% of which is dedicated to enhancing system safety and reliability.

    06

    Operational Efficiency and Customer Focus

    While consolidated O&M increased by $85 million, primarily due to employee-related costs and system activities, the company expects fiscal '25 O&M (excluding bad debt) to remain within the $860 million to $880 million range. Atmos Energy maintains a strong focus on customer satisfaction, evidenced by a 97% satisfaction rating and significant outreach efforts that helped 48,000 customers receive $17.5 million in funding assistance. The company was also recognized as a 2025 Most Trusted Brand.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.