Skip to content
    ATO
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q1 FY25)

    ATMOS ENERGY CORP ATO

    Feb 5, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Atmos Energy Q1 FY25 — Strong Start with EPS Growth and Capital Deployment

    Atmos Energy reported a strong start to fiscal 2025, with diluted EPS increasing 7.2% and operating income up 15%, driven by rate increases and robust customer growth, particularly in Texas. The company continued its strategic capital deployment, investing $891 million in system modernization and expansion during the quarter, supported by significant long-term financing. While managing increased O&M costs and an ongoing Moody's credit review, Atmos Energy remains on track with its full-year EPS and capital spending guidance, emphasizing its commitment to reliable natural gas delivery and economic development across its service territories.

    Highlights

    5
    • Q1 diluted earnings per share increased 7.2% year-over-year to $2.23.

    • Consolidated operating income rose 15% to $459 million in the first quarter.

    • Added over 59,000 new customers in the last 12 months, with 46,000 in Texas.

    • Implemented $152 million in annualized operating income increases from regulatory rate cases since the fiscal year began.

    • Completed over $1 billion in long-term debt and equity financing, including $380 million in equity forward agreements.

    Concerns

    2
    • Consolidated O&M increased $41 million, driven by a $15 million rise in bad debt expense, $11 million in employee-related costs, and $8 million in compliance and safety spending.

    • Moody's has maintained a negative outlook on the company's credit rating since April last year, though management anticipates minimal impact from a potential one-notch downgrade.

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Fiscal 2025 Diluted Earnings Per Share
    $7.05 to $7.25
    high materiality
    High
    Fiscal 2025 Capital Spending Plan
    $3.7 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Annualized Operating Income Increases from Future Filings
    approximately $300 million
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Fiscal 2025 Equity Issuance
    $600 million to $800 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Multi-year Capital Plan
    $24 billion
    high materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    29
    New customers added
    59,000
    12 months ended December 31, 2024

    Total new customers added across the service territory.

    New customers added in Texas
    46,000
    12 months ended December 31, 2024

    Portion of new customers located in Texas.

    Texas job growth
    284,0002% annual growth rate
    Calendar 2024

    Texas added jobs at a faster rate than the nation.

    Commercial customers added
    1,100
    Q1 FY25

    New commercial customers connecting to the system.

    Industrial customers added
    11
    Q1 FY25

    New industrial customers that went fully operational.

    Anticipated annual gas utilization from new industrial customers
    2.3
    Annually

    Anticipated gas load from the 11 new industrial customers.

    Operating income increase from rate increases
    $69
    Q1 FY25

    Impact of rate increases in both operating segments on consolidated operating income.

    Operating income increase from customer growth and industrial loads
    $10
    Q1 FY25

    Impact of residential, commercial customer growth, and higher industrial loads on consolidated operating income.

    APT through-system revenues increase
    $8
    Q1 FY25

    Increase driven by both an increase in throughput and spreads.

    Consolidated O&M increase
    $41
    Q1 FY25

    Total increase in consolidated O&M expenses.

    Bad debt expense increase
    $15
    Q1 FY25

    Increase in bad debt expense, partially due to a non-recurring reduction in the prior year quarter.

    Employee-related costs increase
    $11
    Q1 FY25

    Increase primarily due to increased headcount, overtime, and standby costs.

    Compliance and safety-related spending increase
    $8
    Q1 FY25

    Increase associated with increased lease survey work and in-line inspection.

    APT system safety and integrity expense increase
    $5
    Q1 FY25

    Offset by a corresponding increase in revenue due to APT's new system safety and integrity mechanism, resulting in no impact to operating income.

    Annualized operating income increases implemented
    $152
    Since FY start

    Total increases implemented from regulatory rate mechanisms.

    Annualized operating income increases from Texas rate mechanisms
    $117
    Since FY start

    Relates to the implementation of two annual rate revenue mechanisms in Texas.

    Annualized operating income increases from Mississippi filings
    $28
    Since FY start

    Relates to the implementation of two annual filings in Mississippi.

    Annualized operating income increases from filings in progress
    $126
    Current

    Total amount sought from seven filings currently in progress.

    Annualized operating income increases from Texas filings in progress
    $90
    Current

    Amount sought from four filings in Texas, including a system-wide general rate case in West Texas, two new cases in Mid-Tex, and an annual filing with the City of Dallas.

    Annualized operating income increases from Kentucky general rate case
    $34
    Current

    Amount sought from a general rate case in progress in Kentucky.

    Long-term debt financing completed
    $650
    October 2024

    Long-term debt financing completed in the first fiscal quarter.

    Equity forward agreements sold
    $380
    Q1 FY25

    Equity sold via forward agreements in the first fiscal quarter.

    Equity capitalization
    60
    December 31

    Company's equity capitalization ratio.

    Short-term debt outstanding
    $0
    December 31

    No short-term debt outstanding at quarter-end.

    Available liquidity
    $5.2
    Current

    Total available liquidity, including proceeds from forward sales agreements.

    Net proceeds available under existing forward sales agreements
    $1.5
    Current

    Expected to satisfy remaining FY25 and almost all FY26 equity needs.

    Customer support satisfaction ratings
    98
    Q1 FY25

    Satisfaction ratings for customer support associates and service technicians.

    Funding assistance to customers
    $4
    Q1 FY25

    Funding assistance provided to customers through outreach efforts.

    APT sharing mechanism
    75
    Ongoing

    Company's share of upside from new customers on the APT system on an interruptible basis.

    Industry KPIs

    3
    MetricValueDetails
    Adjusted operating EPS$2.23per diluted share
    Equity hybrid financing atm issuance$380 millionUSD
    CAPEX multi year capital investment plan$3.7 billionUSD

    Capital programs

    5
    Fiscal 2025 Capital Spending Planunderway
    Period spend: $3.7 billion
    Spent to date: $891 million
    Start: FY25

    Benefit: System modernization and growth

    The company's capital spending plan for the current fiscal year, with $891 million spent in Q1 FY25.

    Multi-year Capital Planunderway$24 billion
    Funding: Long-term debt and equity

    Benefit: Continued growth and system modernization

    The company's overarching 5-year capital investment plan, which is expected to grow ratably over the next few years, funded by a balanced approach of long-term debt and equity.

    36-inch Line S-2 Project (Final Phase)completed

    Benefit: Additional supply from Haynesville and Cotton Valley shale plays to DFW Metroplex

    The final phase of this project was placed into service, enhancing gas flow to the east side of the growing Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.

    Bethel to Groesbeck Projectunderway
    Start: Q1 FY25

    Benefit: Additional pipeline capacity (55 miles of 36-inch pipe) to transport gas from Bethel storage to DFW Metroplex and I-35 corridor

    This project involves installing approximately 55 miles of 36-inch pipe to enhance supply to key growth areas.

    Interconnect Projectscompleted

    Benefit: Enhanced supply reliability and system versatility

    Two interconnect projects were completed during the quarter, one near Carthage on Line S-2 and another near Austin.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Increased O&M costsQ1 FY25

    $41 million increase in consolidated O&M, including $15 million higher bad debt expense, $11 million in employee-related costs, and $8 million in compliance and safety spending.

    Mitigation: APT's system safety and integrity expense increase ($5 million) was offset by corresponding revenue. Management did not explicitly state other mitigations for the overall O&M increase.

    Moody's negative credit outlookOngoing; refresh expected late March/early April

    Negative outlook since April last year; potential one-notch downgrade.

    Mitigation: Company has factored various alternatives into its planning cycle; a one-notch downgrade is not expected to significantly impact financing costs.

    Potential tariffs on componentsFuture, currently 'on pause'

    Not quantified, but could lead to 'upward pressure on costs'.

    Mitigation: Monitoring situation, working with vendors to identify exposure. Regulatory mechanisms (annual filings) are available for cost recovery in most jurisdictions.

    What to watch in Q2 FY25

    5

    Moody's Credit Outlook Refresh

    Late March/early April
    CurrentNegative outlook since April last year
    TargetOutcome of Moody's review (affirmation or downgrade)

    Why it matters

    The outcome of Moody's credit review could impact the company's financing costs and investor perception, despite management's expectation of minimal impact from a one-notch downgrade.

    Moody's has put us on the negative outlook back in April of last year. They typically take about 12 months to refresh their outlook and their whole management process... we'll see💬 where they come out probably by the end of March, early part of April based upon the timing.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Can you provide more color on the higher CapEx plan announced last quarter, specifically regarding rate lags and earned ROE trajectory, and its strategic implications?

    The current capital plan is a continuation and roll forward of the strategy from previous years, focusing on system modernization, growth, pipeline replacement, and storage enhancements. It reflects ongoing project identification and growth areas across the system.

    So it's a continuation of what we had in the last several years more of a roll forward, if you will, as we continue to identify projects and growth areas across the system or areas that need additional system modernization.

    asked by Jamieson Ward · answered by John Akers

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    System Modernization and Growth Investments

    Atmos Energy invested $891 million in capital spending during the first fiscal quarter to support continued system modernization and growth. Key projects included the completion of the final phase of the 36-inch Line S-2 project in December 2024, enhancing supply from Haynesville and Cotton Valley shale plays to the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Additionally, the Bethel to Groesbeck project commenced, involving the installation of 55 miles of 36-inch pipe to transport gas from the Bethel storage facility to the DFW Metroplex and Interstate 35 corridor, alongside two interconnect projects near Carthage and Austin to enhance supply reliability and system versatility.

    02

    Robust Customer and Economic Development

    The company reported solid customer growth, adding over 59,000 new customers in the 12 months ending December 31, 2024, with 46,000 of those in Texas. Texas's economy continues to expand, adding nearly 284,000 jobs in calendar 2024, representing a 2% annual growth rate. Commercial customer growth remained strong with 1,100 new connections in Q1, and 11 new industrial customers became fully operational, anticipated to utilize 2.3 Bcf of gas annually. This sustained demand across all customer classes underscores the vital role of natural gas in regional economic development.

    03

    Regulatory Progress and Rate Case Filings

    Atmos Energy has made significant regulatory progress, implementing $152 million in annualized operating income increases in its distribution segment since the beginning of the fiscal year. This includes $117 million from two annual rate revenue mechanisms in Texas and $28 million from two annual filings in Mississippi. Currently, seven filings are in progress, seeking approximately $126 million in additional annualized operating income increases, with $90 million from four Texas filings and $34 million from a general rate case in Kentucky. All these filings are expected to be completed by late spring 2025.

    04

    Strategic Financing and Liquidity Management

    The company completed over $1 billion in long-term debt and equity financing during the quarter, highlighted by a $650 million long-term debt financing in October 2024 and the sale of $380 million in equity forward agreements. As of December 31, equity capitalization stood at 60%, with no short-term debt outstanding. Atmos Energy maintains strong liquidity with $5.2 billion available, including $1.5 billion in net proceeds from existing forward sales agreements, which are expected to cover the remaining equity needs for fiscal 2025 and most of fiscal 2026.

    05

    O&M Cost Drivers and Management

    Consolidated O&M expenses increased by $41 million in the first quarter, attributed to several factors. Bad debt expense rose by $15 million, partly due to a non-recurring📎 reduction in the prior year from a regulatory change in Mississippi. Employee-related costs increased by $11 million, driven by higher headcount to support company growth and increased overtime/standby costs for service work. Additionally, compliance and safety-related spending increased by $8 million for lease survey work and in-line inspection. A $5 million increase in APT's system safety and integrity expense was offset by a corresponding revenue increase.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.