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    AU
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(FY24)

    AngloGold Ashanti PLC AU

    Feb 19, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    AngloGold Ashanti FY24 — Strong Financial Performance and Enhanced Shareholder Returns

    AngloGold Ashanti delivered a strong financial performance in FY24, marked by a significant increase in free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA, driven by disciplined execution and cost management. The company enhanced shareholder returns by revising its dividend policy to 50% of free cash flow with a $0.50 per share minimum. Strategic initiatives like the Full Asset Potential program and the successful integration of Sukari are expected to drive future growth and efficiency, despite challenges from weather and non-operated assets.

    Highlights

    5
    • Free cash flow soared to $942 million in FY24, a ninefold increase year-on-year from $109 million in 2023.

    • Adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $2.7 billion in FY24, up 95% year-on-year.

    • Adjusted net debt declined by 55% to $567 million as of December 31, 2024, with the net debt to EBITDA ratio improving to 0.2x.

    • The dividend payout ratio was increased to 50% of free cash flow with a $0.50 per share minimum, resulting in a $439 million payout for FY24.

    • Managed operations production rose by 2% to 2.352 million ounces in FY24, with total cash costs increasing by only 2% despite 6.6% realized inflation.

    Concerns

    4
    • A light vehicle accident in May claimed the life of an employee at Geita, prompting an investigation and implementation of mitigation recommendations.

    • Unusually high rains impacted operations at Tropicana and Iduapriem during the year.

    • The non-operated Kibali joint venture came in significantly below plan in terms of production and cash costs.

    • Working capital outflow of $162 million in FY24 was driven by a $78 million inventory build and a $182 million increase in trade receivables due to higher gold prices.

    Guidance & targets

    12
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Obuasi Production
    250,000 to 300,000 ounces
    medium materiality
    High
    Sukari Cash Costs
    slightly lower than 2024
    medium materiality
    High
    Sukari Volumes
    increase of about 10%
    medium materiality
    High
    Group Gold Production
    2.9 million and 3.2 million ounces
    high materiality
    High
    Remaining Portfolio Production Growth
    around 1.5%
    medium materiality
    High
    Group Total Cash Costs
    $1,125 per ounce to $1,225 per ounce
    high materiality
    High
    Group Sustaining CapEx
    modest increase
    medium materiality
    High
    Group ASIC
    little changed despite reducing in real terms at the midpoint
    high materiality
    High
    Group Growth CapEx
    $535 million to $585 million
    high materiality
    High
    Group Production, Cash Costs, ASIC
    maintaining consistent levels
    high materiality
    High
    Group Growth CapEx
    $200 million to $240 million
    high materiality
    High
    Dividend Policy
    50% of free cash flow with a base annual minimum of $0.50 per share
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Managed Operations
    Production rose from 2.301 million ounces in 2023, underpinned by strong improvement at Cuiabá, CVSA, Siguiri, Sunrise Dam, and Tropicana, partially offset by lower production at Iduapriem and Serra Grande. Sukari included from end of November. Cost increases were effectively contained below inflation levels.
    Production: 2.352 million ouncesTotal Cash Costs: $1,187 per ounce (up 2%)Total ASIC: increased by 2%
    2%
    Obuasi
    Battled difficult ground conditions but successfully pivoted to a hybrid approach. Met revised target for Q4. Continues to deliver healthy cash flows.
    Q4 Production: 221,000 ouncesUnderhand Drift and Fill Production: 12,500 ounces (from single mining front)
    $300 of free cash flow per ounce
    CVSA, Tropicana, Siguiri, Geita, Cuiabá
    Sterling performance in these operations.
    $800 to $500 free cash flow per ounce
    Iduapriem
    Delivered healthy free cash flow despite challenges.
    $200 free cash flow per ounce

    Operational metrics

    22
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $2.7 billionup 95% YoY
    FY24

    Nearly doubled, demonstrating improved operational efficiencies and cost discipline.

    Basic Earnings
    $1 billionturnaround from $235 million loss in 2023
    FY24

    Sharp turnaround due to higher revenues, cost containment, and reduced losses from asset derecognition and restructuring costs not repeated in 2024.

    Net Cash Inflow from Operating Activities
    $2 billionmore than doubled, up 103% from $971 million in 2023
    FY24

    Supported by improved business fundamentals, operational turnaround in Brazil, and recovery from weather-related disruptions in Australia.

    Adjusted Net Debt
    $567 milliondown 55% from $1.27 billion at 2023-12-31
    as of 2024-12-31

    Substantial reduction, underscoring strong financial position.

    Adjusted Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA Ratio
    0.2ximproved from 0.89x at end of 2023
    FY24

    Lowest level in over a decade, ensuring financial resilience and stability with a target of 1x through the cycle.

    Total Liquidity
    $2.6 billion
    FY24

    Reinforcing the company's strong liquidity position.

    Cash and Cash Equivalents
    $1.4 billion
    FY24

    Part of total liquidity.

    Dividend Payout Ratio
    50%increased
    ongoing

    Of free cash flow, with a base annual minimum of $0.50 per share (approximately $250 million annually).

    Total Dividend Payout
    $439 million
    FY24

    Includes an interim dividend of $347 million for H2.

    Average Gold Price
    $2,394up 24% higher than prior year
    FY24

    Exhibited a significant rise.

    US CPI
    2.9%down from 3.4% in 2023
    FY24

    Highlighting a steady moderation in inflation.

    Argentina Inflation
    118%down from 210% in 2023
    FY24

    Sharp reduction.

    Brazil Inflation
    4.8%
    FY24

    Maintained stability.

    Realized Inflation Rate (Jurisdictions)
    6.6%improved from 8.4% in 2023
    FY24

    Represents CPI changes in operating jurisdictions, demonstrating a positive trend towards price stability.

    Working Capital Outflow
    $162 million
    FY24

    Primarily due to inventory build (full grade ore on stockpiles for 2025 volumes) and higher gold debtors due to increased gold price.

    Incremental EBITDA from Full Asset Potential
    $600 million
    over 3 years

    Translates to $200 per ounce, with benefits flowing directly to the bottom line.

    Concentrated Leach Project Benefit
    $1.6 million
    ongoing

    Project has a payback period of close to one year at conservative gold price assumptions.

    Corporate Overheads Savings
    $32 million
    ongoing

    Assessed as part of Centamin integration synergies.

    Supply Chain Purchasing Capacity Savings
    $30 million
    ongoing

    Expected from a visit in Q2 of this year as part of Centamin integration synergies.

    Projects and Exploration Costs Reduction
    $100 million
    2025

    Reduction from what was planned to be spent in 2025 as part of Centamin integration synergies.

    EBITDA Benefits from FAP
    $50 million to $100 million
    ongoing

    Expected from leveraging AGA's Full Asset Potential program at Sukari, with significant visit expected in Q3 2024.

    Implied Dividend Yield
    1.5%
    current

    Using today's share price for the base dividend, bringing the company in line with North American peers.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Safety0.98 injuries per million hours worked
    Unit cash cost$1,157 per ounceUSD/ounce
    All in sustaining costincreased by a modest 4%%
    Reserve life new supply15 million ouncesounces
    Ore grade recovery drilling by deposit3 million ouncesounces
    Production sales volume by metal and by mine2.352 million ouncesounces

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    CentaminAcquisition of Sukari asset

    Seamless transition since week 1, deployment of AGA values and code of business principle and ethics, site rebranding largely complete, relationships established within Sukari teams and AGA technical teams, maintaining Sukari safety performance and production volumes.

    Capital programs

    8
    Sukari Pre-strippingunderway
    Period spend: $140 million

    Benefit: increase of about 10% in volumes in the medium term (2026-2028)

    Growth capital investment expected to impact volumes in 2026 and mainly 2027.

    Sukari Diesel Grid Connectionplanned$40 million

    Benefit: reduces OpEx by about $50 million

    This project pays for itself in a year through OpEx reductions.

    Havana Pushbackunderway
    Period spend: $80 million

    A significant growth capital investment for the year.

    Nevada Project Developmentunderway
    Period spend: $50 million

    Growth capital investment for 2025.

    Nevada Project Developmentplanned
    Period spend: $200 million to $240 million

    Increased growth capital for 2026 to support Nevada expansion.

    Siguiri Block 3 Openingplanned$45 million

    Growth capital for opening Block 3.

    Geita Fleet Replacementsplanned
    Period spend: $35 million

    Modest increase in sustaining capital for fleet replacements.

    Sukari Stay-in-Business Capitalplanned
    Period spend: $120 million

    Similar stay-in-business capital profile for the asset.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Safety IncidentMay

    1 fatality

    Mitigation: Investigated incident and implemented a range of recommendations to mitigate the risk of recurrence.

    Weather DisruptionsFY24

    Unusually high rains

    Mitigation: Tropicana and Iduapriem operations made the best in dealing with the unforeseen.

    Non-Operated JV UnderperformanceFY24

    Significantly below plan

    Difficult Ground Conditions at Obuasigreater part of the year

    Difficult ground conditions at very high grades

    Mitigation: Successfully pivoted to a hybrid approach with conventional loss mining and selective underhand drift and fill.

    DRC Insurgencyongoing

    No immediate threat

    Mitigation: Kibali operations are a long way from the affected area; Barrick and AGA are watching very closely.

    What to watch next

    5

    Obuasi Production Ramp-up

    Next quarter / FY25
    Current221,000 ounces in Q4 FY24 (12,500 oz from underhand drift and fill from single front)
    TargetProgress towards 250,000 to 300,000 ounces for FY25, with at least 3 more mining fronts opened.

    Why it matters

    Obuasi is a key growth asset; successful ramp-up and mining method optimization are critical for production targets and cash flow.

    Our guidance for this year remains for 250,000 to 300,000 ounces. Finally, it's worth noting that even with the slower ramp-up we announced last year, Obuasi continues to deliver healthy cash flows to the business.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    Are Sukari's cost benefits already incorporated into guidance? What is the impact of the $140 million pre-stripping investment?

    Cost benefits from Sukari are not fully included in current guidance, with significant upside expected in 2026 and 2027. The $140 million pre-stripping is classified as growth capital and is expected to increase Sukari's volumes by about 10% in the medium term (2026-2028).

    The $140 million are not a surprise again for us. They used to incorporate that into cash costs. And that's why I said the cash costs are going to be lower than last year's. We believe it is in growth capital because it will only have impacts in '26 and mainly in '27.

    asked by Adrian Hammond · answered by Alberto Calderon

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Transformation & Operating Model

    AngloGold Ashanti has undergone a significant transformation since early 2022, replacing its old operating model with a simpler, more agile structure. This shift has led to improved safety outcomes, with TRIFR reaching a record low of 0.98 injuries per million hours worked in 2024. The company has regained cost competitiveness, reducing the gap to peers from $300 per ounce to double digits, achieving real cost improvements for three consecutive years. The relocation of corporate headquarters and listing to the US has positioned the company in the world's largest capital market.

    02

    Full Asset Potential (FAP) Program Success

    The Full Asset Potential program has been a cornerstone of the company's operational improvements, delivering value from 200 individual projects, with half exceeding target value. Approximately two-thirds of these initiatives focused on efficiency improvements and one-third on cost reductions. The program has generated over $600 million in incremental EBITDA, translating to $200 per ounce, which has flowed directly to the bottom line. The introduction of league tables to compare site performance has fostered healthy competition and driven significant improvements, with processing plants closing the gap to 99.6% of theoretical maximum in Q4.

    03

    Obuasi Turnaround and Ramp-up

    Obuasi faced challenges with difficult ground conditions but successfully pivoted to a hybrid mining approach, combining conventional loss mining for lower grades and selective underhand drift and fill for higher grades. This strategy enabled the operation to meet its revised Q4 target, producing 221,000 ounces, with 12,500 ounces from underhand drift and fill from a single mining front. The company plans to open at least three more mining fronts in 2025, enhancing flexibility and confidence in achieving its 2025 guidance of 250,000 to 300,000 ounces, while continuing to deliver healthy cash flows ($300 per ounce in H2 2024).

    04

    Centamin Acquisition and Synergy Realization

    The acquisition of Centamin and its Sukari asset has seen a seamless integration, with AngloGold Ashanti's values and management practices deployed. The company is assessing significant synergies, including $32 million in annual corporate overhead savings, $30 million in annual supply chain purchasing capacity savings, and a $100 million reduction in planned projects and exploration costs for 2025. Leveraging the Full Asset Potential program at Sukari is expected to yield additional EBITDA benefits ranging from $50 million to $100 million, further enhancing the asset's value.

    05

    Nevada Project Development and Resource Growth

    AngloGold Ashanti is making good progress on its Nevada project, which is envisioned as a new 20 million-ounce district. The prefeasibility study at Expanded Silicon is nearing completion, with a large drilling campaign significantly improving knowledge of the ore body and adding 3 million ounces of resource to the Merlin ore body, bringing its total to 12 million ounces. The smaller North Bullfrog project is in the federal permitting process, with an update expected in the coming months. Nevada represents a key long-term growth opportunity for the company in the US.

    06

    Exploration Success and Reserve Replacement

    The company's exploration efforts have been highly successful, adding almost 16 million ounces of resource and 15 million ounces of reserve over the past four years at a cost of approximately $60 per ounce. In 2024, Geita and Cuiabá successfully replaced depletion. This focus on reserve deployment and brownfield exploration aims to convert resources to reserves, extend mine lives, improve operating flexibility, and enhance understanding of the ore bodies, contributing to the long-term potential of the portfolio.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.