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Mission Produce (AVO) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Apr 2026 (Q2 FY26)· Consumer Staples· Jun 8, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Mission Produce Q2 FY26 — record avocado volumes and category expansion offset by extreme low prices and a temporary size-curve margin squeeze

An unusually large Mexican crop drove avocado prices to multi-year lows and, compounded by an April size-curve mismatch, compressed per-unit margins that management frames as temporary and already recovering. The thesis pivots forward: a normalizing supply mix into California and Peru, a stronger back half, and the just-closed Calavo deal that adds packing scale and a higher-margin prepared-foods adjacency.

Highlights

5
  • Avocado volume sold grew 15% YoY, driving U.S. consumption to new highs with more than 1.6 million new households entering the category and per-capita consumption reaching ~10%

  • Marketing & distribution gross profit rose ~5% on a first-half basis versus prior year despite Q2 price/margin pressure

  • Calavo acquisition closed early on May 28, 2026, unlocking a minimum $25M annualized cost-synergy target within 18 months and a prepared-foods (guacamole/ready-to-eat) growth platform

  • Peru own-farm exportable avocado production guided to all-time highs of 120-130M pounds in Q3 vs 105M last year, and ~20% above prior year for the full season

  • Consolidated second-half adjusted EBITDA guided to $84-88M as margins recover and Peru/blueberry harvests ramp

Concerns

5
  • Revenue fell 24% YoY to $290.9M as per-unit avocado sales prices dropped 36% against last year's peak, on the largest Mexican crop in years

  • Adjusted EBITDA fell to $7.1M from $19.1M and adjusted EPS to $0.01 from $0.12; gross profit dropped to $20.5M from $28.4M with gross margin down 50 bps to 7%

  • An April supply/demand mismatch in core fruit sizes forced spot-market buying at higher prices while discounting shoulder sizes, pushing per-box margins well below target ranges

  • International farming segment swung to a $1.3M adjusted EBITDA loss from $1.5M income on mango investments that failed to lift yields and lower blueberry packing volumes

  • A potential super El Nino is a watch item that could lower Mexican and own-farm crops in FY27, though management sees no material FY26 impact

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Q3 avocado industry volume
up approximately 5% to 10%
medium materiality
Medium
Q3 own-farm Peru exportable avocado production
120 to 130 million pounds
high materiality
High
Q3 avocado pricing (YoY change)
lower by approximately 15% YoY
high materiality
Medium
Full-season own exportable avocado production (International Farming)
approximately 20% greater than last year
high materiality
High
Q3 consolidated adjusted EBITDA
$28 million to $32 million
high materiality
High
Second-half consolidated adjusted EBITDA
$84 million to $88 million
high materiality
High
Full-year capital expenditures
approximately $45 million
medium materiality
High
Calavo annualized cost synergies
minimum $25 million annualized, with meaningful upside
high materiality
Medium
Per-unit avocado margins (H2 direction)
meaningfully improve through the back half; return toward historical ranges
high materiality
Medium

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Marketing and Distribution
Sales decline reflects lower avocado prices partially offset by higher volume; segment EBITDA fell on the lower per-unit margin dynamics, including the April size-curve mismatch and spot-market buying. Own Mexican packing capacity was stretched by high supply, forcing greater use of third-party packing that pressured profitability.
Avocado volume sold growth: 15% YoYSegment gross profit: +5% YoY on a first-half basis
$277.2M-24% (vs $362.5M prior year)—Segment adjusted EBITDA $7.2M (vs $16.8M prior year)
International Farming
Seasonally immaterial in H1 with EBITDA concentrated in Q3/Q4 alongside the Peru harvest. EBITDA loss driven by mango-production investments that did not improve current-harvest yields and lower third-party blueberry packing volumes after an earlier end to the blueberry season; Q2 sales skew to mango and blueberry packing services.
Full-season own exportable Peru production forecast: ~+20% YoYQ3 own exportable Peru production guide: 120-130M lbs (vs 105M last year)
$7.7M-5% (vs $8.1M prior year)—Segment adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.3M (vs $1.5M income prior year)
Blueberries
Sales down on lower volume sold, partially offset by higher average per-unit pricing. EBITDA improved as improved pricing more than offset higher per-unit production costs from lower yields on newer, still-maturing acreage. Q2 sits outside the peak Peruvian harvest window (fiscal Q1 and Q4).
Per-unit pricing: higher YoY (more than offsetting higher per-unit production costs)
$11M-30% (vs $15.7M prior year)—Segment adjusted EBITDA $1.2M (vs $0.8M prior year)

Deals & partnerships

Calavo Growers acquisition

Now operating as one combined company. Strategic rationale: greater packing capacity to manage high-volume environments, better supply-to-demand size-curve matching, strengthened year-round North American avocado sourcing, and a prepared-foods adjacency with domestic-first then international expansion potential.

Capital programs

Calavo integration cost synergies underway (dedicated integration workgroup in place; day-one executed) minimum $25M annualized (with meaningful upside)
Spent to date: none realized yet; no material synergy expected in fiscal Q3
Start: close on May 28, 2026 (planning underway for months prior)

Benefit:elimination of redundant operations and SG&A cost structures; distribution-network optimization

John: 'a minimum of $25 million of annualized cost synergies achievable within 18 months of close.' Integration-related expenses to be detailed as add-backs to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income reconciliations.

Risks & headwinds

Extreme low avocado prices from oversupply Q2 FY26; easing into Q3/Q4 (Q3 price decline moderating to ~15%)

per-unit avocado sales prices down 36% YoY; revenue down 24% to $290.9M; multi-year low prices on the largest Mexican crop in years

Mitigation:Vertical integration and multi-region sourcing (California, Peru) let Mission fare better than peers; supply transition away from Mexico lifting pricing

Core fruit-size supply/demand mismatch peaked April FY26, with some carryover into early May; largely behind the company

peaked in April; forced spot-market buying at higher prices for high-demand sizes and discounting of excess shoulder sizes; per-box margins significantly below target ranges; gross margin down 50 bps to 7%

Mitigation:Multi-region sourcing normalization; combined Calavo scale to move fruit across a broader network and match size curves to customer programs

Super El Nino weather affecting future crops watch item over next 3-4 months; primarily FY27

no significant FY26 impact seen; potential slightly lower-than-anticipated Mexican crop and own-farm volume changes in FY27 depending on heat/rain timing vs flowering

Mitigation:18-24 months of tree-health and nutrition investments; weekly regional monitoring; ability to plan volume changes for next fiscal year

Mango investments not yielding improvements current harvest season (Q2 FY26)

contributed to International Farming segment adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.3M (from $1.5M income)

Mitigation:Strategic investment behind growing mango category; longer-term footprint expansion via combined Calavo customer reach

Lower blueberry packing volumes and immature newer acreage Q2 FY26; improving as farms reach full productivity

lower third-party blueberry packing/storage volume on earlier end to harvest; higher per-unit production costs from lower yields on newer acreage

Mitigation:Higher per-unit pricing offsetting cost pressure; yields and per-unit costs expected to improve as acreage matures

Calavo integration execution risk next 6-18 months

unquantified; ongoing integration-related expenses to be added back to adjusted metrics

Mitigation:Dedicated integration workgroup with internal experts and external support; months of day-one planning; focus on minimal business disruption

Q&A highlights

How much of the Q3-to-2H EBITDA step-up comes from own Peru production vs a full quarter of Calavo vs improving marketing & distribution fundamentals?

Giles said the year is more backloaded in international farming due to harvest timing, and unlike last year (which saw pricing deteriorate into Q4) prices are now lifting with more stability expected. The Q4 step-up is both a pricing and volume dynamic in farming, plus the seasonal blueberry ramp. In marketing & distribution, strong volume continues and price step-downs ease in Q3/Q4, allowing margins within historical ranges without needing dramatically higher per-unit margins on third-party fruit. He noted ~$42M of EBITDA generated in last year's Q4 as a reference point.

“I mean, I'd remind, you know, last year we generated close to $42 million of EBITDA in our fourth quarter.”

asked by Pooran Sharma · answered by Bryan Giles

3 min read 8 chapters

Detailed narrative

Extreme low prices and an April size-curve mismatch pressured margins

The quarter was shaped by the largest Mexican avocado crop in years, driving per-unit sales prices down 36% YoY to multi-year lows. In April a temporary imbalance in core fruit sizes forced Mission to pay higher spot-market prices to fill shortfalls of high-demand sizes while discounting lower-demand shoulder sizes, compounding an already tight margin environment and contributing to harvest delays in California and Peru.

Management characterized the situation as unique and temporary, noting it peaked in April and has improved meaningfully since. Even absent the size mismatch, per-box margins would likely have been below target ranges for the quarter, though much closer to them.

Category expansion and durable demand

High Q2 volumes expanded the category rather than merely clearing supply: U.S. avocado consumption reached new highs, growing strong double digits YoY, with more than 1.6 million new households entering and per-capita consumption reaching nearly 10%. Management said roughly 50% or more of new households historically stick with the category long-term, with retention skewing higher among younger cohorts.

U.S. penetration is in the mid-to-high 70s, and management sees continued runway domestically plus early-stage momentum now emerging in Europe and Asia.

Calavo acquisition closed early and integration underway

The Calavo transaction closed May 28, earlier than initially planned, and Mission now operates as one combined company (about eight days at the time of the call). A dedicated integration workgroup had been planning day-one for months. Near-term value is in eliminating redundant operations and SG&A, optimizing the distribution network, and adding Calavo packhouse capacity to better manage high-volume environments and match size curves to customer programs.

Longer term, management is most excited about Calavo's guacamole and ready-to-eat prepared-foods lines as a higher-margin adjacency with domestic and international expansion potential.

Peru harvest and international farming outlook

Own-farm Peru fruit development is progressing well, with full-season exportable production forecast ~20% above last year and Q3 output guided to an all-time-high 120-130M pounds vs 105M last year, weighted to Q4. International farming H1 results are seasonally immaterial, with EBITDA concentrated in Q3/Q4.

First own-farm Peru arrivals into the U.S. were expected very soon, with third-party Peruvian fruit already being marketed as supply transitions away from Mexico.

Segment dynamics: mango and blueberry

International farming swung to a $1.3M adjusted EBITDA loss (from $1.5M income) on mango-production investments that did not improve yields this harvest and lower third-party blueberry packing/storage volume after an earlier end to the blueberry season. The standalone blueberry segment improved to $1.2M adjusted EBITDA (from $0.8M) as higher per-unit pricing more than offset higher per-unit production costs from lower yields on maturing newer acreage.

Q2 sits outside the peak Peruvian blueberry harvest window (concentrated in fiscal Q1 and Q4).

Capital allocation and balance sheet

Cash and equivalents were $33M at April 30, 2026; net cash used in operating activities was $21M for H1 (including ~$5M of transaction advisory), versus $13M last year, reflecting lower income partly offset by lower working-capital build. Operating cash flows are seasonal, with inventory built in H1 and monetized in H2 as the Peru crop is sold.

Last week the Board approved an increase and extension to the share repurchase program, framed as flexibility to buy back opportunistically when price does not reflect underlying value; no dollar amount was disclosed.

El Nino weather watch

Management is monitoring a potential super El Nino weekly across regions and has seen no significant impact to date, anticipating some warmer Peru weather over the next three to four months. Investments over the past 18-24 months in tree health and nutrition give confidence in the FY26 crop regardless of near-term weather.

FY27 is a bigger watch item: timing of heat and rain spells relative to flowering could affect the next cycle, and management sees potential for slightly lower-than-anticipated Mexican crops in 2027.

Leadership transition

Following the April annual meeting, John Pawlowski formally stepped into the CEO role while founder Steve moved to Executive Chairman and remains actively engaged with the team and board. Andrew Pearson recently joined as VP of Investor Relations and Strategy. Pawlowski noted two decades in the branded food industry before Mission, informing his enthusiasm for the prepared-foods opportunity.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.