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AXAXON

Axon Enterprise (AXON) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q1 FY26)· Industrials· May 6, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Axon Enterprise Q1 FY26 — Record first quarter with AI and Dedrone driving broad-based growth

Axon enters 2026 having crossed what management frames as an AI inflection point, with growth broadening across products (AI, Dedrone, Fusus, 911) and end markets (international, enterprise, federal) rather than concentrating in the core. The forward stance is offensive: a raised revenue outlook, a deliberate inventory build to protect against supply and geopolitical risk, and integration of recent acquisitions over new M&A. Margin discipline is back-half-weighted amid tariff and memory cost pressure.

Highlights

5
  • Revenue of $807M, up 34% YoY — ninth consecutive quarter of >30% growth

  • AI product revenue grew more than 700% YoY (off a small base); AI bookings up 140% YoY

  • Dedrone/counter-drone revenue up over 300% YoY, with Dedrone bookings up 500% YoY; Platform Solutions revenue grew 95% YoY

  • International revenue up over 100% YoY, reaching 20% of total revenue; future contracted bookings up 44% YoY to $14.3B

  • ARR grew 35% YoY to $1.5B with net revenue retention of 125%; delivered 25% adjusted EBITDA margin and >55 on Rule of 40

Concerns

3
  • Tariffs and inflationary component costs (including memory) pressuring gross margin, plus product-mix shift toward lower-margin Platform Solutions hardware

  • Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin of 25% requires H2 operating leverage to reach the 25.5% full-year target

  • Large inventory investment weighed on Q1 free cash flow (would have been FCF-positive ex-inventory); Platform Solutions is the lowest-margin hardware line

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full-year 2026 revenue growth
30% to 32% growth
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin
25.5%
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 free cash flow
approximately $450M
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 stock-based compensation expense
approximately $590M to $620M
medium materiality
High
Average annual dilution
less than 2.5%
medium materiality
Medium
Stock-based compensation dollars (multi-year trajectory)
roughly flat over the next few years
low materiality
Medium
Rule of 40 (growth + margin)
in excess of 55
medium materiality
High
Full-year bookings growth
roughly in line with revenue growth (30%+)
medium materiality
Medium
AI Era Plan cumulative bookings
expected to keep rising above $750M booked to date
medium materiality
Medium

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Software and services
All software products continued to grow; AI was a standout though on a small revenue base. Slightly smaller software step in Q1 is typical seasonality (same as Q1 2025); strength shows first in ARR. Carbyne, Prepared, and Outpost remain immaterial to revenue this quarter.
AI product revenue growth: >700% YoYNet revenue retention: 125%ARR: $1.5B (up 35% YoY)
$355M35%—software-only gross margins (incl. services) above 80%
Connected devices
Particularly strong quarter for connected devices. TASER 10 and Body 4 remain durable growth drivers. Platform Solutions (includes counter-drone hardware) grew 95% YoY. Sustained TASER growth rates cited.
Platform Solutions revenue growth (incl. counter-drone hardware): 95% YoYDedrone total revenue (hardware + software): >300% YoY
$453M33%—Platform Solutions is lowest-margin of the three hardware businesses
International (geography)
Delivered on prior-year bookings momentum; each market (U.S. public safety, international, enterprise) set a Q1 bookings record. Dedrone hardware factors more heavily into international revenue, making it lumpy quarter to quarter. First year over $1B international bookings was last year.
Share of total revenue: 20% (second consecutive quarter at ~20%)
~20% of total revenue (~$161M implied)over 100%——
Enterprise
Closed a $40M opportunity with a top global telecom provider centered on Fusus, plus Axon Body Mini and Axon Outpost. Three buckets: Fusus, Dedrone, ABW/Axon Body Mini. Axon Vision being launched into enterprise; Assistant and Draft One becoming enterprise-ready.
Q1 enterprise bookings record set
—~50% (April, per Josh)——

AXON operating KPIs by quarter

AXON operating KPIs stated on its earnings calls, by fiscal quarter
KPI Mar 2025 Q1 FY25This call Mar 2026 Q1 FY26 Jun 2026 Q2 FY26Change vs prior quarter
Backlog
$9.9B Our comfort in raising guidance is based on the strong Q1 bookings performance as well as the pipeline we see for the year and the future contracted bookings of $9.9 billion. Source: earnings call transcript
$14.3B Future contracted bookings was up 44% year-over-year to $14.3 billion, reflecting this broad-based momentum. Source: earnings call transcript
$15.1B Future contracted bookings grew more than 40% year-over-year to $15.1 billion, reflecting the broad-based momentum we're seeing across products and end markets. Source: earnings call transcript
+5.6%

Operating figures the company stated on at least two of the calls shown, checked against each call's transcript. Click a figure to read the sentence. A dash means it was not stated that quarter.

Orderbook & backlog

Future contracted bookings $14.3B 2026-03-31 (Q1 FY26)

up 44% YoY

Reflects broad-based momentum across products and end markets; company-wide contracted-but-unrecognized revenue.

Product announcements

ProductTypeDetails
Axon Visionroadmap
Form Onelaunch
Axon Body Mini / Axon Body Workforce (ABW)launch
Axon Outpostlaunch
Axon Assistantmilestone
Draft Oneupdate
Axon Gravityroadmap

Deals & partnerships

One of the largest telecom providers in the world (unnamed) customer contract (enterprise) $40M

Closed in April after ~50% YoY enterprise growth. Use case is complete situational awareness across retail locations and physical assets by integrating video streams into Fusus. Josh declined to name the customer but said it is one of the first 3-4 telecoms that comes to mind.

Buntar Aerospace (Ukraine) minority investment (not an acquisition) $10M

Leading Ukrainian reconnaissance drone maker; one of several investments to build Axon's footprint and relationships across the Ukrainian drone/counter-drone space, where fastest innovation is happening. Framed as a key market partnership rather than an acquisition target.

Skydio technology partnership / integration (DFR)

Cited by Jeff Kunins as an example of the flywheel: data from Prepared and 911 flows into Fusus and directly into Skydio for drone-as-first-responder (DFR).

Capital programs

Core product inventory investment underway
Period spend: elevated Q1 FY26 spend (visible in Q1 free cash flow); sustained through 2026
Funding: operating cash flow (contemplated within FY26 FCF guidance)
Start: under way (building for a while, stepped up entering 2026)

Benefit:ensures supply across all products so international orders don't cap U.S. shipments or revenue growth; hedges geopolitical and component (memory) risk; minimal obsolescence risk given 10-15yr TASER and 5+yr camera life cycles

Josh: 'I have sponsored a significant investment in core product inventory... We never want inventory to be the reason we cannot maximize our growth.' Brittany confirmed it is already contemplated in FY26 free cash flow guidance; ex-inventory, Q1 would have been FCF-positive.

Risks & headwinds

Tariffs and inflationary component costs (including memory) plus product-mix shift to lower-margin Platform Solutions hardware FY2026

Gross-margin basis-point impact from memory 'not meaningful enough to break out'; all contemplated in FY26 guidance (25.5% adj. EBITDA margin)

Mitigation:Entered year with ample inventory allowing patience on memory costs; pricing tied to value with annual escalators; H2 operating leverage to hit full-year margin target

Free cash flow pressure from large inventory build FY2026 (Q1 seasonally softest)

Elevated inventory investment made Q1 FCF lower; ex-inventory Q1 would have been FCF-positive; full-year FCF guided to ~$450M

Mitigation:Working-capital management, non-recurrence of Q1 bonus/commission/semiannual interest payments, and improving conversion over the next three quarters

Supply-chain / component competition and geopolitical risk constraining ability to ship (esp. Dedrone and core products) 2026 into next year

Unquantified; management 'more limited by ability to get product out the door than by opportunity' on Dedrone

Mitigation:Sustained inventory investment, close supplier collaboration with long-term forecasts, building to buffer levels to avoid international orders capping U.S. supply

Counter-drone mitigation regulation limiting product capability as U.S. state/local laws evolve

Unquantified; jamming/nets/interceptors face heavier regulation ('making things explode in the sky will be a lot more highly regulated')

Mitigation:Safer Skies initiative (multiyear) enabling sustainable counter-drone adoption; starting with detection/situational awareness before mitigation

Platform Solutions (incl. Dedrone hardware) is the lowest-margin hardware line, pressuring connected-devices gross margin as it scales fast ongoing until scale achieved

Unquantified specific level; connected-devices gross margin will move quarter-to-quarter in return for Dedrone growth

Mitigation:Margin expected to improve with scale, repeatability and volume leverage; strong attached software component (software-only gross margins above 80%)

Federal deal-environment uncertainty amid government shutdowns 2026

Unquantified; 'not a major business for you'

Mitigation:Rebuilt federal team and leadership (Claudia Davidson from Palantir); renewed interest in body cameras, TASERs, and Dedrone; potential 'banner year'

Q&A highlights

Where was customer engagement highest on new AI products, and how much of the inventory investment is memory/inflation vs meeting demand — do the CapEx change and FCF conversion targets hold?

Rick said interest was evenly distributed across personas with the whole 'vibe' shifting to AI being real; Brittany said inventory includes memory but is not solely memory-driven (they'd do it regardless for supply position), Q1 is seasonally softest FCF and would have been FCF-positive ex-inventory, and CapEx was merely refined/tightened during the year.

“even with all of that, without the inventory investments, we would have been positive from a free cash flow standpoint in Q1”

asked by Will Power · answered by Brittany Bagley

4 min read 7 chapters

Detailed narrative

The AI inflection point and ecosystem thesis

CEO Rick Smith framed Q1 as passing an inflection point into a 'generational leap' in both innovation pace and customer adoption, describing technology as evolving 'hyper exponentially' across multiple dimensions at once. The core thesis is a tightly integrated hardware-plus-software ecosystem where each added capability makes every other capability more valuable — data through Axon 911 becomes more powerful connected to drones and body cameras; Draft One improves with every report and sensor.

Management positions Axon as moving from product adoption to 'system adoption.' Axon Assistant has surpassed 1 million uses. Named early examples of the always-on, intelligent phase include Axon Vision, Guardian, and Assistant.

AI Era Plan adoption accelerating

AI bookings were up 140% YoY and AI product revenue grew more than 700% YoY (on a small base). Nearly all large domestic law enforcement agencies are now including AI in their purchases, signaling AI is treated as a core capability.

The AI Era Plan (launched at the very end of 2024) had $750M booked cumulatively, a figure management expects to keep rising. Large-city deals run $50M-$200M and take 8-12 months to close; a Mid-Atlantic major city had a $150M deal (including the AI Era Plan) approved by city council.

New features shown at Axon Week (April) include Form One (fills any web-based form from digital evidence) and BriefOne (targeting investigators/command staff/prosecutors).

Dedrone / counter-drone scaling faster than expected

Dedrone bookings were up 500% YoY and total Dedrone revenue (hardware plus software) was up over 300% YoY, with management saying the acquisition has 'shattered' expectations and is on a trajectory similar to the AI Era Plan. Dedrone protected the 2026 Super Bowl and the Kentucky Derby, and supports American World Cup sites.

Demand is currently driven far more by counter-drone situational awareness than DFR, with buyers concentrated in international, enterprise, and federal segments. Management is presently 'more limited by our actual ability to get the product out the door than by opportunity.' The Safer Skies initiative (multiyear legislation) is cited as enabling sustainable counter-drone adoption.

Over 400 unauthorized drone detections by Dedrone were cited in the deck.

Enterprise expansion and the $40M telecom win

The enterprise team, after ~50% YoY growth in Q1, closed a $40M opportunity with one of the world's largest telecom providers, centered on Fusus (unifying dozens/hundreds of thousands of siloed video streams across retail locations and physical assets) along with Axon Body Mini and Axon Outpost.

Management frames enterprise in three buckets: Fusus, Dedrone, and ABW/Axon Body Mini (production units ship July). Axon Vision is being launched directly into enterprise to recognize abnormalities in real time, and Assistant and Draft One are becoming enterprise-ready. Enterprise physical-AI-infrastructure conversations are underway with many of the largest infrastructure providers to protect data centers.

International momentum and go-to-market maturity

International revenue grew over 100% YoY, reaching 20% of revenue for a second consecutive quarter, driven by a stronger go-to-market operation (internal team plus partners, system integrators, distributors under CRO Cameron) and improved product-market fit for Fusus, Records, and Dedrone.

Last year was Axon's first year over $1B in international bookings. A new dynamic is smaller countries going 'all in' on a national basis on cloud, giving proof points; Rick cited a 90-minute session with a Prime Minister. Dedrone hardware factors more heavily into international revenue (versus bookings-oriented services), making international revenue lumpy quarter to quarter.

Inventory investment and supply-chain strategy

Management has sponsored a significant, deliberate investment in core product inventory, citing expanding geopolitical risk, competition for key components (including memory), and growing worldwide demand. Long product life cycles (TASER CEWs 10-15 years; body cameras 5-plus years) mean minimal obsolescence risk.

The build is intended to ensure large international orders don't cannibalize U.S. supply or cap revenue growth, and it is already contemplated in FY26 free cash flow guidance. Axon entered the year with substantial inventory, which is why memory cost inflation has had limited guidance impact so far.

The focus is positioning for next year's growth.

911 (Carbyne + Prepared) and acquisition integration

Management expressed confidence Axon will contend for market leadership in 911/call handling within a few years, likening the cloud opportunity to its entry into cloud 15 years ago against entrenched on-premise incumbents. Prepared captures logos with over-the-top feature sets; Carbyne is the capable fast-follow for call handling (with a large international brand).

Some of the largest U.S. jurisdictions were signed on Prepared in the last 3-6 months. Axon has now booked over 1.5x the combined purchase price of Fusus (acquired ~2 years ago) and Dedrone (~18 months ago). For 2026, management is prioritizing integration/execution over new acquisitions, while remaining opportunistic on investments (e.g., $10M in Ukraine's Buntar Aerospace).

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.