American Express (AXP) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Is the aspirational 10% revenue growth on the table this year, and where was performance tracking better such that you can afford incremental marketing/tech investment?

Squeri said the strongest spend quarter in 3 years drives higher revenue and expressed confidence in the 9-10% aspiration, framing reinvestment as lowering ROI thresholds when overperformance allows. Le Caillec cited unexpected favorable items — a French court decision on European VAT and a gain from completing the buyout of the Switzerland JV — creating capacity to fund marketing and technology.

“when you have an [indiscernible] delivery like we just had in the first quarter, it gives us that confidence that we can move those ROI thresholds down and continue to hit within our guidance range.”

asked by Ryan Nash · answered by Stephen Squeri

Can you quantify the airline softness and is it material; are higher fuel prices affecting spend cohorts?

Le Caillec said softness was most visible in a spike in refund volumes late March/early April from Middle East disruptions but the impact is not large; AmEx rebooked ~18,000 customers with tickets to the Middle East. Fuel spend rose with higher ticket prices but fuel is under 2% of billed business, so the impact is barely visible, with no discontinuity across products, cohorts, or geographies.

“fuel is less than 2% of the overall bill business. So the impact is just not very visible on the overall bill business”

asked by Sanjay Sakhrani · answered by Christophe Le Caillec

Is the key message that revenue is running above the 9-10% range and the upside is being reinvested, keeping EPS unchanged?

Squeri reframed the takeaway: the message is reaffirming 9-10% revenue growth, noting the Amazon and Lowe's co-brand book roll-off will be a slight revenue drag (zero PTI impact), and that the EPS over-delivery is being invested back into the business.

“we're taking the over delivery from an EPS perspective and investing that back into the business.”

asked by Erika Najarian · answered by Stephen Squeri

How much of the refresh spend lift came from existing vs new card members, and how much deceleration on lapping?

Le Caillec said the ~6-point U.S. consumer Platinum acceleration came mostly from tenured (back-book) card members given portfolio size, a strong sign, while new acquisition was also pleasing. He expects the step-up to be maintained into 2027 but not a further acceleration, with the refresh lapping at some point in '27.

“the majority of that 6% lift is coming from the back book, and that's a very strong sign.”

asked by Craig Maurer · answered by Christophe Le Caillec

Are younger cohorts more sensitive/higher-beta to a volatile economy in spend and credit?

Squeri argued younger cohorts will be less, not more, sensitive — more adaptable and tech-savvy — and that AmEx's millennial/Gen Z base is the 'cream of the crop,' with credit performance better than the industry's Gen X/boomer cohorts. He cited consumer spend growth of Gen Z +38%, millennials +13%, Gen X +8%, boomers +4%. Le Caillec added that half of high-yield-savings customers are Gen Z/millennials, signaling quality.

“our millennial and Gen Z credit performance is better than the industry is Gen X and baby boomer credit performance”

asked by Richard Shane · answered by Stephen Squeri

If spend acceleration continues, would you grow balances concurrently or keep balance growth at the level laid out in January?

Le Caillec said AmEx isn't chasing balance growth but customers who spend; balances typically lag spend and the 7% pace is partly rounding. He favors pay-over-time revolve (shorter durations) and highlighted NII outgrowing balances (~12% range) helped by cheaper high-yield-savings funding, describing the dynamic as stable and consistent.

“we're not chasing balance growth. We're chasing customers who are going to spend with us.”

asked by Robert Wildhack · answered by Christophe Le Caillec

Is AI-related job displacement affecting the customer base, and how might it trend?

Squeri said AmEx is seeing no impact at all; historically technological change creates new jobs and fuels GDP. He acknowledged some service jobs will go away (including internally, where AI tools make phone reps more efficient) but expects younger, tech-ready cohorts to fill new roles, and noted the base spans entrepreneurs, creators, and professionals, not just white-collar workers.

“technology has, over time, fueled GDP, not crush GDP.”

asked by Jeffrey Adelson · answered by Stephen Squeri

Is there more fraud in agentic/AI transactions, and how do AmEx's closed-loop data advantages apply?

Squeri said in an agentic world 'data is king' and AmEx's closed-loop network with card member, network, and merchant data yields significantly lower fraud than competition. The ACE developer kit has agents declare intent matched to actual purchase — data AmEx can capture that doesn't exist in bricks-and-mortar — underpinning Amex Agent purchase protection. He likened the stage to 'warming up in the bullpen,' expecting agentic commerce to eventually take off fast.

“the model is as good as the data that it has. And so what we're trying to do is get as close to perfect data as you can in agentic transaction.”

asked by Darrin Peller · answered by Stephen Squeri