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Burlington Stores (BURL) Q1 FY27 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Apr 2026 (Q1 FY27)· Consumer Discretionary· May 28, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Burlington Stores Q1 FY27 — 26% EPS growth on a 6% comp beat and surprise margin expansion

Burlington's off-price playbook — chase the trend, tightly control inventory, convert incremental sales into margin — again produced earnings leverage far ahead of a comp beat, extending a multi-year flow-through streak. Management raised the full-year outlook by passing Q1 upside through and stayed bullish on the back half, tempered by fresh caution on gas prices and inflation; a more value-seeking consumer is framed as opportunity, not threat, for a share-taking value retailer.

Highlights

5
  • Total sales grew 14% and comp store sales rose 6%, well above the 2%-4% comp guidance, with broad-based strength across businesses/geographies (ladies apparel, beauty, accessories) and double-digit comp in warm-weather categories (~25% of Q1 sales)

  • Adjusted EPS of $2.10, up 26% YoY and far above the $1.60-$1.75 guide — the 14th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth

  • Adjusted EBIT/operating margin expanded 20 bps versus a guided decline of 60-100 bps (~100 bps above the midpoint), driven by +20 bps merchandise margin and +30 bps supply-chain productivity leverage

  • Gross margin of 44.1%, up 30 bps (+20 bps merch margin, +10 bps freight); product sourcing costs leveraged 30 bps as a percent of sales despite new Savannah DC startup costs

  • Raised full-year outlook by passing through the entire Q1 upside: total sales now +9%-11%, adjusted EPS $11.45-$11.80 (+13%-16%), and net new stores lifted from 110 to 115

Concerns

5
  • Management is 'a little more wary' on higher gas prices and potential inflation pressuring the discretionary/lower-income consumer, though no behavior change seen yet

  • Freight expected to modestly deleverage for the full year on higher diesel/fuel costs; further fuel increases flagged as an additional risk to guidance

  • Guidance assumes an incremental 10% tariff; tariff refunds have been filed but are excluded from guidance given high uncertainty on amount and timing

  • Q2 laps the strongest quarterly comparison, so comp guidance is a modest 1%-3% and month-by-month comparisons get harder through the quarter

  • Comparable store inventories up 11% versus 6% comp; new Savannah DC startup costs pressuring product sourcing

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full-year total sales growth
9% to 11%
high materiality
High
Full-year comparable store sales growth
2% to 4%
high materiality
High
Full-year adjusted EBIT margin
expand 10 to 30 basis points
high materiality
High
Full-year adjusted EPS
$11.45 to $11.80
high materiality
High
Full-year net new store openings
115 net new stores
medium materiality
High
Full-year gross new store openings
135 gross new stores
medium materiality
High
Full-year capital expenditures (net of landlord allowances)
approximately $875 million
medium materiality
High
Q2 comparable store sales growth
1% to 3%
high materiality
High
Q2 total sales growth
10% to 12%
medium materiality
High
Q2 operating margin expansion
increase 30 to 60 basis points
high materiality
High
Q2 adjusted EPS
$2.05 to $2.20
high materiality
High
Back-half (H2) comparable store sales growth
1% to 3%
medium materiality
Medium
Back-half (H2) total sales growth
8% to 10%
medium materiality
Medium
Back-half (H2) adjusted EBIT margin
increase 10 to 30 basis points
medium materiality
Medium
Back-half (H2) adjusted EPS
$7.30 to $7.50
high materiality
Medium
Comp sales upside potential (Q3 and possibly Q4)
potential upside
low materiality
Low
Net new store openings, fiscal 2027
at least 110 net new stores
medium materiality
Medium
Net new store openings, fiscal 2028
at least 110 net new stores
medium materiality
Medium
Total store count
exceed 1,500 stores by end of 2028
high materiality
Medium
Store downsize program ramp
about 30 stores in 2026
medium materiality
Medium
Store Experience 2.0 chain-wide completion
all stores fitted by end of 2026
low materiality
Medium
Bankruptcy-acquired lease costs (excluded from adjusted results)
approximately $10 million full year
low materiality
High

BURL operating KPIs by quarter

BURL operating KPIs stated on its earnings calls, by fiscal quarter
KPI Jan 2026 Q4 FY26This call Apr 2026 Q1 FY27 Jul 2026 Q2 FY27Change vs prior quarter
Stores
1,212 In Q4, we opened one net new store, bringing our store count at the end of the year to 1,212 stores. Source: earnings call transcript
1,242 This resulted in the addition of 30 net new stores in Q1, bringing our store count at the end of the quarter to 1,242 stores. Source: earnings call transcript
1,287 This resulted in the addition of 45 net new stores in Q2 bringing our store count at the end of the quarter to 1,287 stores. Source: earnings call transcript
+3.6%
New stores opened
2 In Q4, we had 2 new store openings and one closing. Source: earnings call transcript
40 In Q1, we opened 40 gross new stores. Source: earnings call transcript
51 In Q2, we opened 51 gross new stores. Source: earnings call transcript
+27.5%

Operating figures the company stated on at least two of the calls shown, checked against each call's transcript. Click a figure to read the sentence. A dash means it was not stated that quarter.

Product announcements

ProductTypeDetails
Store Experience 2.0milestone

Risks & headwinds

Higher gas prices and potential inflation pressuring discretionary/lower-income consumer spending Near-to-medium term; sustained high gas prices feeding cost-of-living the key concern

Unquantified; management 'a little more wary' than in March; no correlation found historically between gas prices and comp, and no behavior change seen yet

Mitigation:Watching trends closely; off-price model flexibility to 'tap the brakes or hit the accelerator'; a more value-focused consumer viewed as an opportunity for a value retailer

Higher diesel/fuel costs and surcharges pressuring freight Full year FY26

Modest full-year freight deleverage embedded in guidance; further diesel increases flagged as additional risk to guidance

Mitigation:Transportation cost-savings initiatives offset fuel in Q1; ocean and domestic freight contracts locked for next year at favorable rates

Tariff cost exposure and uncertain tariff refunds Full year FY26 and beyond

Guidance assumes an incremental 10% tariff; tariff refunds filed but excluded from guidance given high uncertainty on amount and timing

Mitigation:Not baking any refund benefit into guidance; off-price merchandise supply described as excellent; tariff-related assortment-gap laps seen as Q3/Q4 comp upside

New Savannah, Georgia DC startup costs pressuring product sourcing FY26 (start-up phase)

Unquantified; DC became operational late in Q1

Mitigation:More-than-offset in Q1 by broader supply-chain productivity initiatives; expected supply-chain leverage for the full year despite the new DC

Tougher Q2 comparison / decelerating comp cadence Q2 FY26

Q2 comp guided to 1%-3% as it laps the strongest quarterly comparison; May month-to-date at high end of range but month-by-month comparisons get more difficult through the quarter

Mitigation:Margin leverage expected to drive 19%-28% EPS growth even on modest comp

Comparable store inventories growing faster than sales As of end of Q1 FY26

Comp store inventories +11% versus +6% comp; reserve inventory 41% of total (vs 48% a year ago)

Mitigation:Management pleased with merchandise quality and values in reserve; off-price liquidity/inventory discipline central to the model

Q&A highlights

Have geopolitical events and the run-up in gas prices since March made you less bullish on 2026?

Still bullish, especially on the back half. Customer indicators remain positive across demographics/income bands; Q1's 6% comp was strong even stripping out ~1.5-2 points from higher tax refunds. Tariffs proving less disruptive and off-price supply is excellent. Acknowledged being 'a little more wary' on gas prices/inflation but sees no behavior change yet; a more value-focused consumer could be an opportunity for a value retailer.

“By the way, we estimate that higher tax refunds in Q1 were worth about 1.5 to 2 points of comp. So even if you strip those out, our comp growth in Q1 was still mid-single digit.”

asked by Matthew Boss · answered by Michael O'Sullivan

4 min read 8 chapters

Detailed narrative

Q1 sales and earnings beat across the board

Total sales grew 14% and comp store sales rose 6%, well above the 2%-4% comp guidance, marking the 14th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Total sales growth of 14% came on top of 6% in 2025 and 11% the year before, leaving the business roughly 34% larger than three years ago.

Comp strength was broad-based across businesses and geographies, with particular strength in ladies apparel, beauty and accessories. Adjusted EPS of $2.10 rose 26% versus the prior-year quarter and cleared the $1.60-$1.75 guide, reflecting Burlington's consistent conversion of top-line growth into stronger earnings growth.

Margin outperformance and its drivers

Operating/adjusted EBIT margin expanded 20 bps to a 6.3% adjusted EBIT margin, versus guidance for a 60-100 bps decline — about 100 bps above the midpoint. Gross margin was 44.1%, up 30 bps, from +20 bps merchandise margin (disciplined markdown execution and quality of buys) and +10 bps lower freight.

Product sourcing costs were $216M (vs $197M last year) but leveraged 30 bps as a percent of sales on supply-chain productivity, despite startup costs from the new Savannah, Georgia DC that became operational late in Q1. Adjusted SG&A deleveraged 20 bps on higher incentive comp and marketing spend; the net was margin expansion well ahead of plan.

Store portfolio transformation and sales productivity

Burlington opened 40 gross new stores, relocated 6 and closed 4 for +30 net, ending Q1 at 1,242 stores. Relocations typically deliver a 5%-10% sales lift, and the downsize program (20 stores in 2025, ramping to ~30 in 2026) cuts square footage roughly in half and reduces occupancy costs about 200 bps per project.

Sales per selling square foot has climbed from ~$220 in 2019 to ~$350 today, a 55% gain in six years. Management expects to exceed 1,500 stores by the end of 2028, with over 80% of the base in the newer, smaller, higher-productivity format — a lever for future occupancy-expense leverage.

Consumer health and income-cohort trends

Management sees continued resilience across demographics and income bands. Stores in lower-median-household-income trade areas comped clearly above the chain, while higher-income areas still delivered mid-single-digit comp; high-Hispanic-area stores also comped mid-single digit, in line with the chain. Higher Q1 tax refunds were estimated to be worth ~1.5-2 points of comp, so ex-refunds comp was still mid-single digit.

No correlation was found between gas prices and comp trends across time or region, though management is 'a little more wary' on sustained high gas prices feeding cost-of-living pressure.

Off-price competitive positioning and elevation strategy

Management framed a broad retail restructuring in which value-offering retailers win share from full-price retail, evidencing off-price's growth. Burlington acknowledged it remains behind its two larger off-price peers in capabilities like assortment localization and supply-chain automation — which it casts as upside runway — while staying focused on the basics: controlling liquidity, managing inventory, chasing the trend and delivering value.

The multi-year elevation strategy (better, more recognizable brands within a good-better-best assortment) has lifted customer perception scores, average basket and unit retail while expanding merchant margin rather than pressuring it.

Guidance raised; shape of the year

The company passed the entire Q1 upside through to the full year: total sales +9%-11%, comp +2%-4%, adjusted EBIT margin +10-30 bps, and adjusted EPS $11.45-$11.80 (+13%-16%). Q2 guidance is comp +1%-3% with total sales +10%-12%, operating margin +30-60 bps and EPS $2.05-$2.20 (+19%-28% vs $1.72) — strong earnings leverage on modest comp as Q2 laps the toughest comparison.

Back-half guidance is unchanged (comp +1%-3%, EPS $7.30-$7.50), with potential comp upside called out for Q3 and possibly Q4. May month-to-date was tracking at the high end of the comp range.

Tariffs, freight, inventory and capital structure

Guidance assumes an incremental 10% tariff; the company has filed for tariff refunds but excluded any benefit given uncertainty on amount and timing. Freight is expected to modestly deleverage for the year on higher diesel/fuel costs and surcharges, partly offset by transportation cost-savings initiatives and newly locked ocean and domestic contracts at favorable rates.

Comparable store inventories rose 11%, with reserve inventory at 41% of total (vs 48% a year ago) and management pleased with reserve quality. Liquidity was ~$1.7B ($747M cash, $942M ABL availability, no ABL borrowings); the company repurchased $81M of stock ($304M authorization remaining) and, in March, $111M of 2027 convertible notes (reducing that balance to $186M).

Store Experience 2.0 and warm-weather/localization capabilities

The Store Experience 2.0 retrofit — reimagining the store environment to feel more exciting, easier to shop and more off-price — reached ~120 stores in 2024 and ~350 more in 2025, with chain-wide completion targeted by year-end 2026; retrofitted stores show positive customer feedback and a nice sales lift, plus a new SoHo store opened in the quarter.

Warm-weather categories (~25% of Q1 sales: short-sleeve tops, swimwear, sandals, sunglasses) achieved double-digit comp, aided early in the quarter by weather and by upgraded allocation/localization tools that enabled faster, more granular, region-specific receipt allocation, supporting both sales and merchant margin.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.