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    BURL
    Earnings call· Apr 2026(Q1 FY27)

    Burlington Stores Q1 FY27 earnings call BURL

    May 28, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Burlington Stores Q1 FY27 — 26% EPS growth on a 6% comp beat and surprise margin expansion

    Burlington's off-price playbook — chase the trend, tightly control inventory, convert incremental sales into margin — again produced earnings leverage far ahead of a comp beat, extending a multi-year flow-through streak. Management raised the full-year outlook by passing Q1 upside through and stayed bullish on the back half, tempered by fresh caution on gas prices and inflation; a more value-seeking consumer is framed as opportunity, not threat, for a share-taking value retailer.

    Highlights

    5
    • Total sales grew 14% and comp store sales rose 6%, well above the 2%-4% comp guidance, with broad-based strength across businesses/geographies (ladies apparel, beauty, accessories) and double-digit comp in warm-weather categories (~25% of Q1 sales)

    • Adjusted EPS of $2.10, up 26% YoY and far above the $1.60-$1.75 guide — the 14th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth

    • Adjusted EBIT/operating margin expanded 20 bps versus a guided decline of 60-100 bps (~100 bps above the midpoint), driven by +20 bps merchandise margin and +30 bps supply-chain productivity leverage

    • Gross margin of 44.1%, up 30 bps (+20 bps merch margin, +10 bps freight); product sourcing costs leveraged 30 bps as a percent of sales despite new Savannah DC startup costs

    • Raised full-year outlook by passing through the entire Q1 upside: total sales now +9%-11%, adjusted EPS $11.45-$11.80 (+13%-16%), and net new stores lifted from 110 to 115

    Concerns

    5
    • Management is 'a little more wary' on higher gas prices and potential inflation pressuring the discretionary/lower-income consumer, though no behavior change seen yet

    • Freight expected to modestly deleverage for the full year on higher diesel/fuel costs; further fuel increases flagged as an additional risk to guidance

    • Guidance assumes an incremental 10% tariff; tariff refunds have been filed but are excluded from guidance given high uncertainty on amount and timing

    • Q2 laps the strongest quarterly comparison, so comp guidance is a modest 1%-3% and month-by-month comparisons get harder through the quarter

    • Comparable store inventories up 11% versus 6% comp; new Savannah DC startup costs pressuring product sourcing

    Guidance & targets

    22
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year total sales growth
    9% to 11%
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year comparable store sales growth
    2% to 4%
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year adjusted EBIT margin
    expand 10 to 30 basis points
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year adjusted EPS
    $11.45 to $11.80
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year net new store openings
    115 net new stores
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year gross new store openings
    135 gross new stores
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year capital expenditures (net of landlord allowances)
    approximately $875 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Q2 comparable store sales growth
    1% to 3%
    high materiality
    High
    Q2 total sales growth
    10% to 12%
    medium materiality
    High
    Q2 operating margin expansion
    increase 30 to 60 basis points
    high materiality
    High
    Q2 adjusted EPS
    $2.05 to $2.20
    high materiality
    High
    Back-half (H2) comparable store sales growth
    1% to 3%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Back-half (H2) total sales growth
    8% to 10%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Back-half (H2) adjusted EBIT margin
    increase 10 to 30 basis points
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Back-half (H2) adjusted EPS
    $7.30 to $7.50
    high materiality
    Medium
    Comp sales upside potential (Q3 and possibly Q4)
    potential upside
    low materiality
    Low
    Net new store openings, fiscal 2027
    at least 110 net new stores
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Net new store openings, fiscal 2028
    at least 110 net new stores
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Total store count
    exceed 1,500 stores by end of 2028
    high materiality
    Medium
    Store downsize program ramp
    about 30 stores in 2026
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Store Experience 2.0 chain-wide completion
    all stores fitted by end of 2026
    low materiality
    Medium
    Bankruptcy-acquired lease costs (excluded from adjusted results)
    approximately $10 million full year
    low materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    12
    Total sales growth
    +14%on top of +6% in FY25 and +11% in FY24
    Q1 FY27

    Management frames total sales growth as the most reliable proxy for retail market-share gains.

    Adjusted diluted EPS
    $2.10+26% YoY; above $1.60-$1.75 guidance (management had expected roughly flat)
    Q1 FY27

    Prior-year full-year context: +22% EPS growth in FY25 and +34% the year before.

    Adjusted EBIT (operating) margin
    6.3%+20 bps YoY; ~100 bps above guidance midpoint (guide was -60 to -100 bps)
    Q1 FY27

    Non-GAAP; excludes bankruptcy-acquired lease costs.

    Share repurchase / capital return
    $81M repurchased
    Q1 FY27

    Average repurchase price not stated.

    Convertible notes repurchase / refinancing action
    $111M of 2027 convertible notes repurchasedreduced outstanding 2027 converts to $186M
    March 2026

    Capital-structure action reducing near-dated convertible balance.

    Total liquidity
    ~$1.7B
    end of Q1 FY27

    Strong liquidity position supporting store growth and capital returns.

    Sales per selling square foot
    ~$350vs ~$220 in 2019; +55% over 6 years
    current (FY27)

    Higher productivity in smaller stores is management's lever for future occupancy-expense leverage.

    Store relocation sales lift
    +5% to +10%
    typical/ongoing

    6 stores relocated in Q1.

    Store downsize occupancy cost reduction
    ~200 bps20 stores downsized in 2025
    per project (ongoing)

    Targets older, oversized stores in good locations; 2026 ramp (~30 stores) captured in guidance.

    Merchandise category performance
    Warm-weather categories: double-digit compwell ahead of the chain; warm-weather categories ~25% of Q1 sales
    Q1 FY27

    Weather was helpful in Feb/March but less favorable through April; localization drove both sales and merchant margin.

    Bankruptcy-acquired lease costs (one-time, excluded)
    $7Mvs $6M in Q1 FY26
    Q1 FY27

    Non-recurring exclusion; materially lower year over year.

    Operating margin leverage per point of comp
    10 to 15 bpsper additional point of comp sales
    FY27

    Modeling sensitivity given by management for full-year incremental leverage.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Sg a OPEX ratioAdjusted SG&A +20 bps (deleverage)bps
    Comparable sales+6%%
    Store count growth1,242 storesstores
    Gross margin driversGross margin 44.1%, +30 bps% / bps
    Tariff refund claimsFiled for tariff refunds
    Inventory position markdown riskComparable store inventories +11%%
    Distribution supply chain cost economicsProduct sourcing costs $216M; -30 bps as a percent of salesUSD / bps

    Product announcements

    1
    ProductTypeDetails
    Store Experience 2.0milestone

    Risks & headwinds

    6
    Higher gas prices and potential inflation pressuring discretionary/lower-income consumer spendingNear-to-medium term; sustained high gas prices feeding cost-of-living the key concern

    Unquantified; management 'a little more wary' than in March; no correlation found historically between gas prices and comp, and no behavior change seen yet

    Mitigation: Watching trends closely; off-price model flexibility to 'tap the brakes or hit the accelerator'; a more value-focused consumer viewed as an opportunity for a value retailer

    Higher diesel/fuel costs and surcharges pressuring freightFull year FY26

    Modest full-year freight deleverage embedded in guidance; further diesel increases flagged as additional risk to guidance

    Mitigation: Transportation cost-savings initiatives offset fuel in Q1; ocean and domestic freight contracts locked for next year at favorable rates

    Tariff cost exposure and uncertain tariff refundsFull year FY26 and beyond

    Guidance assumes an incremental 10% tariff; tariff refunds filed but excluded from guidance given high uncertainty on amount and timing

    Mitigation: Not baking any refund benefit into guidance; off-price merchandise supply described as excellent; tariff-related assortment-gap laps seen as Q3/Q4 comp upside

    New Savannah, Georgia DC startup costs pressuring product sourcingFY26 (start-up phase)

    Unquantified; DC became operational late in Q1

    Mitigation: More-than-offset in Q1 by broader supply-chain productivity initiatives; expected supply-chain leverage for the full year despite the new DC

    Tougher Q2 comparison / decelerating comp cadenceQ2 FY26

    Q2 comp guided to 1%-3% as it laps the strongest quarterly comparison; May month-to-date at high end of range but month-by-month comparisons get more difficult through the quarter

    Mitigation: Margin leverage expected to drive 19%-28% EPS growth even on modest comp

    Comparable store inventories growing faster than salesAs of end of Q1 FY26

    Comp store inventories +11% versus +6% comp; reserve inventory 41% of total (vs 48% a year ago)

    Mitigation: Management pleased with merchandise quality and values in reserve; off-price liquidity/inventory discipline central to the model

    Q&A highlights

    8

    Have geopolitical events and the run-up in gas prices since March made you less bullish on 2026?

    Still bullish, especially on the back half. Customer indicators remain positive across demographics/income bands; Q1's 6% comp was strong even stripping out ~1.5-2 points from higher tax refunds. Tariffs proving less disruptive and off-price supply is excellent. Acknowledged being 'a little more wary' on gas prices/inflation but sees no behavior change yet; a more value-focused consumer could be an opportunity for a value retailer.

    By the way, we estimate that higher tax refunds in Q1 were worth about 1.5 to 2 points of comp. So even if you strip those out, our comp growth in Q1 was still mid-single digit.

    asked by Matthew Boss · answered by Michael O'Sullivan

    4 min read8 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q1 sales and earnings beat across the board

    Total sales grew 14% and comp store sales rose 6%, well above the 2%-4% comp guidance, marking the 14th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Total sales growth of 14% came on top of 6% in 2025 and 11% the year before, leaving the business roughly 34% larger than three years ago. Comp strength was broad-based across businesses and geographies, with particular strength in ladies apparel, beauty and accessories. Adjusted EPS of $2.10 rose 26% versus the prior-year quarter and cleared the $1.60-$1.75 guide, reflecting Burlington's consistent conversion of top-line growth into stronger earnings growth.

    02

    Margin outperformance and its drivers

    Operating/adjusted EBIT margin expanded 20 bps to a 6.3% adjusted EBIT margin, versus guidance for a 60-100 bps decline — about 100 bps above the midpoint. Gross margin was 44.1%, up 30 bps, from +20 bps merchandise margin (disciplined markdown execution and quality of buys) and +10 bps lower freight. Product sourcing costs were $216M (vs $197M last year) but leveraged 30 bps as a percent of sales on supply-chain productivity, despite startup costs from the new Savannah, Georgia DC that became operational late in Q1. Adjusted SG&A deleveraged 20 bps on higher incentive comp and marketing spend; the net was margin expansion well ahead of plan.

    03

    Store portfolio transformation and sales productivity

    Burlington opened 40 gross new stores, relocated 6 and closed 4 for +30 net, ending Q1 at 1,242 stores. Relocations typically deliver a 5%-10% sales lift, and the downsize program (20 stores in 2025, ramping to ~30 in 2026) cuts square footage roughly in half and reduces occupancy costs about 200 bps per project. Sales per selling square foot has climbed from ~$220 in 2019 to ~$350 today, a 55% gain in six years. Management expects to exceed 1,500 stores by the end of 2028, with over 80% of the base in the newer, smaller, higher-productivity format — a lever for future occupancy-expense leverage.

    04

    Consumer health and income-cohort trends

    Management sees continued resilience across demographics and income bands. Stores in lower-median-household-income trade areas comped clearly above the chain, while higher-income areas still delivered mid-single-digit comp; high-Hispanic-area stores also comped mid-single digit, in line with the chain. Higher Q1 tax refunds were estimated to be worth ~1.5-2 points of comp, so ex-refunds comp was still mid-single digit. No correlation was found between gas prices and comp trends across time or region, though management is 'a little more wary' on sustained high gas prices feeding cost-of-living pressure.

    05

    Off-price competitive positioning and elevation strategy

    Management framed a broad retail restructuring in which value-offering retailers win share from full-price retail, evidencing off-price's growth. Burlington acknowledged it remains behind its two larger off-price peers in capabilities like assortment localization and supply-chain automation — which it casts as upside runway — while staying focused on the basics: controlling liquidity, managing inventory, chasing the trend and delivering value. The multi-year elevation strategy (better, more recognizable brands within a good-better-best assortment) has lifted customer perception scores, average basket and unit retail while expanding merchant margin rather than pressuring it.

    06

    Guidance raised; shape of the year

    The company passed the entire Q1 upside through to the full year: total sales +9%-11%, comp +2%-4%, adjusted EBIT margin +10-30 bps, and adjusted EPS $11.45-$11.80 (+13%-16%). Q2 guidance is comp +1%-3% with total sales +10%-12%, operating margin +30-60 bps and EPS $2.05-$2.20 (+19%-28% vs $1.72) — strong earnings leverage on modest comp as Q2 laps the toughest comparison. Back-half guidance is unchanged (comp +1%-3%, EPS $7.30-$7.50), with potential comp upside called out for Q3 and possibly Q4. May month-to-date was tracking at the high end of the comp range.

    07

    Tariffs, freight, inventory and capital structure

    Guidance assumes an incremental 10% tariff; the company has filed for tariff refunds but excluded any benefit given uncertainty on amount and timing. Freight is expected to modestly deleverage for the year on higher diesel/fuel costs and surcharges, partly offset by transportation cost-savings initiatives and newly locked ocean and domestic contracts at favorable rates. Comparable store inventories rose 11%, with reserve inventory at 41% of total (vs 48% a year ago) and management pleased with reserve quality. Liquidity was ~$1.7B ($747M cash, $942M ABL availability, no ABL borrowings); the company repurchased $81M of stock ($304M authorization remaining) and, in March, $111M of 2027 convertible notes (reducing that balance to $186M).

    08

    Store Experience 2.0 and warm-weather/localization capabilities

    The Store Experience 2.0 retrofit — reimagining the store environment to feel more exciting, easier to shop and more off-price — reached ~120 stores in 2024 and ~350 more in 2025, with chain-wide completion targeted by year-end 2026; retrofitted stores show positive customer feedback and a nice sales lift, plus a new SoHo store opened in the quarter. Warm-weather categories (~25% of Q1 sales: short-sleeve tops, swimwear, sandals, sunglasses) achieved double-digit comp, aided early in the quarter by weather and by upgraded allocation/localization tools that enabled faster, more granular, region-specific receipt allocation, supporting both sales and merchant margin.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.