Chubb Q1 FY26 earnings call CB

Greenberg opened on the Middle East war, warning it raises the specter of higher global inflation and potentially slower growth, adding pressure to already-stressed fiscal deficits, sovereign debt, supply chains, energy and financial valuations. He argued degree, timing and pattern are unknowable but that difficult environments generally advantage strong companies over weak ones. Chubb's diversification, balance-sheet strength, earning power and liquidity give it resilience and many sources of opportunity on both the liability and asset sides.

P&C underwriting income was $1.8B at an 84% combined ratio; on a current accident year ex-cat basis underwriting income grew 9.8% at an 82.1% combined ratio. Core operating income was $2.7B ($6.82 EPS), and adjusting out cats (prior-year Q1 carried the California wildfires) core operating income rose 10.7% and EPS 13.5%. Annualized core operating ROTE was 20.6% and core operating ROE 14%, with TBV per share up 21.5%.

Management repeatedly flagged a rapidly deteriorating shared-and-layered property market. Chubb-written property pricing in shared & layered major/specialty fell 14.3%, while pricing on business it passed on was down 30-40% (the larger the premium, the deeper the discount). Overall market rate in shared & layered across North America and London is off ~25% heading toward 30% and accelerating, against loss-cost trend of 4-5%. Greenberg attributed the softness to volume-incentivized capital arriving via MGAs, reinsurance and alternative capital, and called the pace 'dumb.' Chubb shed roughly half the large-account property volume and bought additional reinsurance.

Total NA premiums grew 4.1% (7.8% ex large-account property); NA commercial rose 7.7% ex large-account property, with major accounts/E&S +1.5% (+10.9% ex shared/layered) and middle-market/small +3.3% (P&C +5.5%, fin lines -5.7%). Overseas General grew 14.4% (6.1% constant dollar); international retail (90% of Overseas General, 51 countries) was up 15% with consumer +20% and commercial +11% — Europe +17.5%, Asia +12%, Latin America +18%. London wholesale (10% of intl P&C) grew ~8% despite deliberate property shrinkage.

The Life division produced $316M pretax income, up 8.5% (11.5% adjusted for prior-year one-time^📎 items). International life premiums rose 37%, aided by a fast-start Asia agency single-premium savings quarter (spread-based, high ROC, lower margin). North America Chubb Worksite Benefits grew ~16%, built organically off the retooled Combined agency force plus P&C-broker cross-sell into small-group supplemental A&H; over two-thirds of international life is risk-based supplemental A&H.

Adjusted NII was $1.84B (+>10%), at the top of guidance, on a $170B invested base (up from $152B) and stronger PE returns; fixed-income yield was 5.1% with new money at 5.5%. The A-rated portfolio rose ~$1.5B on cash flow and FX but carried $1.6B of net unrealized losses from higher rates and wider spreads. Private credit is under 4% of investments (over half in first-lien senior-secured direct lending held in SMAs, not BDCs), with software exposure under $150M and loss experience roughly one-third of the broader direct-lending universe. Chubb returned $1.5B to shareholders and issued CHF 200M of 6-year debt at a 1% coupon.

Greenberg framed AI/agentics as both a real multi-year growth lever (small commercial retail and E&S, distribution and underwriting transformation) and a rising cyber threat. On Anthropic's 'Mythos,' he noted the vulnerability threshold has been lowered — code-reading models can aggregate minor vulnerabilities, including in third-party open source, faster than patches emerge; the 'arms race is on.' Large accounts have stronger hygiene and perimeters; middle-market companies are the biggest exposure (more money, weaker defense), while small companies are less individually targeted but create more systemic concern.