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    CCL
    Earnings call· Aug 2025(Q3 FY25)

    Carnival Corp Ltd. CCL

    Sep 29, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Carnival Corporation & plc Q3 FY25 — Record Net Income and Strong Booking Trends

    Carnival delivered a record-breaking Q3 FY25, achieving its highest-ever net income and strong yield growth, driven by robust demand and cost discipline. The company is nearing investment-grade leverage metrics, enabling a pivot towards capital returns to shareholders, while forward bookings for 2026 and 2027 show continued strength at higher prices.

    Highlights

    5
    • Achieved record net income of $2 billion, surpassing pre-pause benchmark by nearly 10%.

    • Yields increased 4.6% year-over-year, outperforming guidance by 1.1 points due to strong close-in demand and onboard spending.

    • Unit costs beat guidance by 1.5 points, driven by effective cost-saving initiatives.

    • Customer deposits reached a record $7.1 billion for Q3, up over $300 million year-over-year.

    • Trailing 12-month ROIC reached 13%, the first time since 2007.

    Concerns

    4
    • Net interest expense increased nearly 600% compared to 2019.

    • A new loyalty program in 2026 is expected to impact yields by approximately 0.5 point.

    • Operating expenses for new destinations (Celebration Key, RelaxAway) in 2026 will impact year-over-year cost comparisons by about 0.5 point.

    • Additional dry dock expenses in 2026 are projected to impact overall year-over-year cost assumptions by up to 1 percentage point.

    Guidance & targets

    7
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2025 Net Income
    approximately $2.9 billion or $2.14 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 EBITDA
    over $7 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio
    under 3x
    high materiality
    High
    Capacity increase
    0.8%
    medium materiality
    High
    Loyalty program yield impact
    about 0.5 point
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Destination operating expenses impact on costs
    about 0.5 point
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Dry dock expenses impact on costs
    up to 1 percentage point
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Operational metrics

    18
    Net income
    $2 billionup nearly 10% vs pre-pause benchmark
    Q3 FY25

    All-time high net income for the quarter.

    Yields
    4.6%YoY
    Q3 FY25

    On top of last year's robust increase of nearly 9%.

    Cruise cost without fuel per ALBD
    5.5%up YoY
    Q3 FY25

    Favorability was driven by cost-saving initiatives solidified during the quarter.

    Fuel consumption and fuel mix favorability
    $0.02
    Q3 FY25

    Contributed to outperformance.

    Depreciation expense, fuel prices, interest income/expense favorability
    $0.04
    Q3 FY25

    Balance of favorability in Q3.

    ROIC
    13%
    TTM

    First time since 2007 that returns reached the teens.

    Net debt to EBITDA
    3.6xdown from 4.3x at end of FY24
    end of FY25

    Closing in on investment-grade leverage metrics.

    Secured debt reduction
    nearly $2.5 billion
    Q3 FY25

    Part of refinancing strategy.

    Debt refinanced
    over $11 billion
    since January

    At favorable rates, accelerating path to investment-grade credit metrics.

    Convertible notes redemption
    $500 million
    settled Dec 5

    For all outstanding convertible notes.

    Share count reduction
    approximately 13 million shares
    2026

    Result of convert redemption for fully diluted EPS calculation.

    Carnival Cruise Line bookings
    8%more than Q3 FY24
    Q3 FY25

    Indicates strong booking performance.

    Celebration Key guests
    nearly 0.5 million
    since late July opening

    Number of guests who have passed through the destination.

    Celebration Key media impressions
    almost 1.5 billion
    grand opening

    Generated by the grand opening.

    Celebration Key expected guest visits
    2.8 million
    next year

    Expected high utilization rates with a ship in port virtually every day.

    Exclusive Caribbean destinations expected guest visits
    over 8 million
    next year

    Almost equal to the rest of the cruise industry combined.

    Capacity increase
    1%YoY
    FY25

    Virtually all EBITDA improvement driven by same-ship yield improvement.

    Dry dock days
    lessthan 2026
    2027

    Current plan, subject to change.

    Industry KPIs

    3
    MetricValueDetails
    Comparable sales comps4.6%%
    Booked position booking windownearly halfpercentage of capacity
    Net unit growth development pipeline0.8%%

    Orderbook & backlog

    3
    Customer deposits$7.1 billionend of Q3 FY25

    up over $300 million YoY

    Driven by higher ticket pricing and increased sales of pre-cruise onboard revenue items.

    2026 Bookingsnearly halfQ3 FY25

    at higher prices

    Represents the longest booking curve on record.

    2027 BookingsrecordQ3 FY25

    Record for bookings made on sailings 2 years out in a 13-week window.

    Product announcements

    7
    ProductTypeDetails
    Star Princesslaunch
    AIDAluna Evolutions programupdate
    Carnival Rewardslaunch
    Celebration Keylaunch
    RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay pier expansionlaunch
    Carnival XL sistersroadmap
    Ace classroadmap

    Risks & headwinds

    6
    Increased net interest expense

    nearly 600% increase compared to 2019

    Loyalty program yield impact2026 (second half)

    about 0.5 point impact on yields

    Mitigation: Expected to be cash flow positive from day one.

    Destination operating expenses2026

    about 0.5 point impact on year-over-year cost comparisons

    Mitigation: Offset by expected strong returns and monetization of strategic assets.

    Dry dock expenses2026

    up to 1 percentage point impact on overall year-over-year cost assumptions

    Mitigation: Investments are expected to yield strong returns, similar to the AIDA Evolutions program.

    Volatility in booking strategypast

    Bookings were choppy in April and March of prior year

    Mitigation: Reduced volatility expected for 2026 as it is not an election cycle year; confidence in approach given past resilience.

    Increased competition in Caribbean marketnext few years

    Competitors adding new hardware and pivoting to fun and sun itineraries

    Mitigation: Carnival's long-term commitment to the Caribbean, new ship orders (XL sisters, Ace class), and continued investment in destinations like Celebration Key and Half Moon Cay.

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio

    Early FY26
    Current3.6x (end of FY25)
    Target3.5x (early FY26 pro forma for convert redemption)

    Why it matters

    Indicates progress towards investment-grade credit metrics and enables capital returns.

    Pro forma for the convert redemption, our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, is forecasted to be 3.5x very early in our fiscal year 2026.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Clarify if "historic price levels" means above or in line, and if North American sourcing brands were previously not at record levels compared to Europe.

    Josh clarified that both North America and Europe are at historical record high pricing levels, and no dramatic shift occurred recently; they just wanted to provide more information.

    So what we intended to convey is that both North America and Europe are at historical record high levels in pricing, which is great to see.

    asked by Robin Farley · answered by Josh Weinstein

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Record Performance & Financial Milestones

    Carnival achieved record revenues, yields, operating income, EBITDA, and customer deposits in Q3 FY25. Net income reached an all-time high of $2 billion, surpassing 2019 levels despite a significant increase in net interest expense. Unit operating income and EBITDA were at their highest in nearly 20 years, contributing to a 13% ROIC for the trailing 12 months.

    02

    Strong Booking Trends & Future Outlook

    Booking trends have continued to improve, outpacing capacity growth at higher prices. Nearly half of 2026 is already booked at higher prices, and 2027 bookings are at an unprecedented🌐 level for the period. The company expects continued demand for its restrained capacity growth, with only a 0.8% capacity increase forecasted for 2026.

    03

    Destination Development Strategy

    Celebration Key, which opened in July 2025, has received overwhelmingly positive feedback and media coverage, generating 1.5 billion media impressions. It is expected to host 2.8 million guests in 2026. The pier expansion at RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay, will open mid-2026, further enhancing the Caribbean offerings. These strategic assets are designed to drive consumer consideration and conversion, taking share from land-based alternatives, with exclusive Caribbean destinations expected to capture over 8 million guest visits next year.

    04

    Balance Sheet Improvement & Capital Allocation

    The company continued its deleveraging efforts, reducing secured debt by nearly $2.5 billion and refinancing over $11 billion of debt. Net debt-to-EBITDA improved to 3.6x, with a target of under 3x. The company is now pivoting towards returning capital to shareholders, with a redemption notice for outstanding convertible notes using $500 million cash and equity, which will improve net debt by $600 million and reduce share count by 13 million shares.

    05

    Brand & Fleet Optimization

    The Star Princess joined the fleet, representing over 15% of the Princess fleet. The AIDA Evolutions program is modernizing the AIDA fleet, with AIDAluna entering dry dock next month. Carnival Cruise Line will launch a new marketing campaign and an enhanced loyalty program in mid-2026. The company is focused on maximizing existing assets and investing in midlife ship refurbishments for brands without new builds on order, with several brands showing significant improvement and roadmaps for further progress.

    06

    Cost Management & Efficiency

    Unit costs beat guidance by 1.5 points due to cost-saving initiatives and improved fuel consumption/mix. While 2026 will see some cost headwinds from the loyalty program, destination operating expenses, and dry dock work, the company is actively seeking further efficiencies and leveraging its scale to mitigate these, aiming for long-term margin improvement where yields grow faster than costs.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.