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    CDNS
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    CADENCE DESIGN SYSTEMS INC CDNS

    Feb 18, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Cadence Q4 FY24 — Record Backlog and Strong Profitability Drive Optimistic FY25 Outlook

    Cadence concluded FY24 with exceptional performance, driven by its AI-powered chip-to-systems portfolio and strong execution, resulting in record backlog and cRPO. The company's strategic focus on AI adoption, foundry partnerships, and product innovation positions it well for continued growth. While a prudent flat revenue assumption for China and a shift in revenue mix impact recurring revenue growth, Cadence is guiding for robust profitability and a Rule of 40 exceeding 55% for FY25.

    Highlights

    5
    • Achieved 13.5% revenue growth and 42.5% non-GAAP operating margin for FY24.

    • Exited 2024 with a record backlog of $6.8 billion and a record current Remaining Performance Obligation (cRPO) of $3.4 billion.

    • System Design and Analysis (SDA) business delivered strong results, achieving over 40% growth in 2024.

    • IP business drove a strong finish to the year, growing 28% year-over-year in Q4, marking a significant turnaround for the year.

    • Hardware family delivered a record year, adding over 30 new customers and almost 200 repeat customers in 2024.

    Concerns

    3
    • China revenue declined just over $100 million in dollar terms from 2023 to 2024, marking a rare down year.

    • Recurring revenue growth is slowing down, partly due to the China headwind and faster growth in upfront revenue businesses.

    • The full-year 2025 revenue guidance implies a 3-year revenue CAGR dropping below 15% for the first time in several years.

    Guidance & targets

    14
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Revenue
    $5.14B to $5.22B
    high materiality
    High
    GAAP Operating Margin
    30.3% to 31.3%
    medium materiality
    High
    Non-GAAP Operating Margin
    43.25% to 44.25%
    high materiality
    High
    GAAP EPS
    $4.19 to $4.29
    medium materiality
    High
    Non-GAAP EPS
    $6.65 to $6.75
    high materiality
    High
    Operating Cash Flow
    $1.6B to $1.7B
    medium materiality
    High
    Share Repurchase
    approx. 50% of free cash flow
    medium materiality
    High
    China Revenue
    flat
    high materiality
    Medium
    Non-GAAP Tax Rate
    16.5%
    low materiality
    High
    Revenue
    $1.23B to $1.25B
    high materiality
    High
    GAAP Operating Margin
    27% to 28%
    medium materiality
    High
    Non-GAAP Operating Margin
    40% to 41%
    high materiality
    High
    GAAP EPS
    $0.93 to $0.99
    medium materiality
    High
    Non-GAAP EPS
    $1.46 to $1.52
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    System Design and Analysis (SDA)
    Delivered strong results in 2024, driven by multiphysics analysis platform and Millennium CFD simulation.
    over 40%
    IP Business
    Drove a strong finish to the year in Q4, with significant turnaround in 2024.
    28%
    Core EDA (Digital, Custom Analog, Verification)
    Showed strong year-over-year growth in Q4, supported by hardware and digital portfolio.
    15%
    China
    Revenue declined in dollar terms from 2023 to 2024, marking a rare down year. Assumed flat for FY25 guidance.
    declined >$100M

    Operational metrics

    7
    Cash balance
    $2.644B
    year-end FY24

    Total cash balance at year-end.

    Principal value of debt outstanding
    $2.500B
    year-end FY24

    Total principal value of debt outstanding at year-end.

    DSOs
    48
    Q4 FY24

    Days Sales Outstanding at the end of Q4.

    Share repurchases
    $550M
    FY24

    Amount used to repurchase shares during the year.

    Non-GAAP EPS
    $1.88
    Q4 FY24

    Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for Q4.

    Non-GAAP EPS
    $5.97
    FY24

    Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for FY24.

    Non-GAAP Tax Rate
    16.5%
    FY25

    Assumed non-GAAP tax rate for 2025.

    Industry KPIs

    5
    MetricValueDetails
    Revenue growth$4.641BUSD
    Rpo current rpo$6.8BUSD
    Customer account count30+customers
    Operating FCF margin rule of 4042.5%%
    Ai product adoption monetization750+tapeouts

    Orderbook & backlog

    2
    Total Backlog$6.8Byear-end FY24

    Record backlog at year-end.

    Current Remaining Performance Obligation (cRPO)$3.4Byear-end FY24

    Record cRPO at year-end.

    Product announcements

    7
    ProductTypeDetails
    Cadence Cerebrusmilestone
    Verisium AI-driven verification platform (SimAI, Debug AI)update
    Allegro X AIupdate
    Millennium CFD simulation platformupdate
    Virtuoso Studioupdate
    Spectre Xupdate
    Spectre FX, FastSPICEupdate

    Deals & partnerships

    13
    NVIDIACommitments across EDA, hardware, IP, and system software solutions.

    Advanced long-standing partnership through commitments across a range of solutions. Also using NVIDIA's NeMo and NIM microservices for Gen AI applications.

    QualcommSignificant expansion of EDA and system software solutions.

    Deepened collaboration through a significant expansion of solutions.

    MarvellBroad proliferation of Cadence's portfolio of products.

    Meaningfully expanded strategic partnership.

    TSMCFurthered partnership with AI optimized design flows.

    Certified for TSMC's N3 and N2P technologies.

    GlobalFoundriesStrengthened collaboration.

    Strengthened collaboration with GlobalFoundries.

    SamsungPartnering on SF2 gate-all-around process.

    Partnering with Samsung on their SF2 gate-all-around process.

    Intel FoundryProvide design software and leading IP solutions.

    Partnered to provide solutions at multiple Intel advanced nodes.

    RapidusStrategic collaboration for 2-nanometer enablement technology.

    Entered into a strategic collaboration in Q4. Also announced collaboration to provide advanced memory interface IP for 2nm backside power process node.

    ARMBroad expansion of IP, hardware, and AI-driven design enablement solutions.

    Deepened partnership, successfully taped out industry's first ARM PSA standard-based system chiplet.

    Secure-ICAcquisition of embedded security IP product.

    Entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Secure-IC last month.

    AST SpaceMobileCommitted to AI-driven IP solutions and EDA tools.

    For their AST5000 ASIC, a custom low-power architecture for global space-based cellular broadband services.

    Equal1Partnered on the development of its Alpha5 quantum SoC.

    Cadence partnered with Equal1 on the development of Its Alpha5 quantum SoC that runs at cryogenic temperatures with Cadence's design and implementation tools being central to this revolutionary design.

    BETA CAEAcquisition for comprehensive multiphysics platform.

    With BETA CAE, Cadence now provides a comprehensive multiphysics platform covering electromagnetics, electrothermal, PFD, and structural analysis.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    China revenue declineFY24

    declined >$100M in dollar terms from 2023 to 2024

    Mitigation: Assumed flat for FY25 guidance to derisk the outlook; monitoring design activity.

    Export control regulationsFY25

    assumption that regulations remain substantially similar

    Mitigation: Outlook is based on current regulations; potential changes could impact results.

    Macro uncertaintyFY25

    not quantified

    Mitigation: Prudent guidance approach taken to manage expenses effectively.

    Hardware visibilityH2 FY25

    limited beyond 2 quarters

    Mitigation: Will provide updates on hardware pipeline for the second half of the year by summer.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    China Revenue Trajectory

    Q1 FY25 and beyond
    CurrentDeclined >$100M in FY24; guided flat for FY25
    TargetPositive growth or better than flat

    Why it matters

    China has been a headwind, and its recovery or continued softness will significantly impact overall revenue growth.

    At the midpoint of revenue guidance, we are assuming 2025 China revenue will be flat year-over-year. ... We've never had 2 consecutive down years in China, and we thought it would be prudent to assume in the guide for 2025 that China was flat because it's notoriously hard to predict📌, and I want to manage an expense plan based on a prudent guide.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    How to reconcile the record $6.8 billion backlog with a lower starting point for FY25 revenue growth (11.5%) compared to prior years?

    John Wall explained that Q4 had exceptionally strong bookings, particularly renewals, but the second half of 2025 is expected to have stronger renewals than the first half. The flat China revenue assumption for FY25 is a prudent derisking measure, as 2024 was a rare down year for China revenue, and they have never had two consecutive down years.

    But then when we look at the guide for the full year, the 11.5% starting point is a little lower than where you started other years in the past. So maybe, John, can you help us just reconcile the confidence in the backlog and kind of how you're approaching guidance for 2025?

    asked by Jason Celino · answered by John Wall

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    AI Super Cycle and Product Proliferation

    Cadence is deeply engaged in the evolving AI super cycle, which is fueling compute demand and semiconductor innovation across generative, agentic, and physical AI. The company is collaborating with market leaders like NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and Marvell on next-generation AI designs. Cadence's AI-powered products, including Cerebrus (750+ tapeouts to date, 300+ in Q4), SimAI, and Allegro X AI, are gaining significant momentum, with LLM-based design agents also showing promising results. The company is also applying AI to new markets such as life sciences with OpenEye drug discovery software.

    02

    Foundry Ecosystem and Strategic Partnerships

    The growing foundry ecosystem is creating substantial opportunities for Cadence. The company strengthened partnerships with TSMC (AI-optimized design flows for N3 and N2P), GlobalFoundries, and Samsung (SF2 gate-all-around process). New strategic engagements include Intel Foundry for design software and IP solutions, and Rapidus for 2-nanometer enablement technology. Cadence also expanded its partnership with ARM for IP, hardware, and AI-driven design enablement solutions, successfully taping out the industry's first ARM PSA standard-based system chiplet.

    03

    System Design and Analysis (SDA) Business Growth

    Cadence's SDA business delivered strong results, achieving over 40% growth in 2024. The multiphysics analysis platform, with AI-driven optimization, is expanding its customer base across aerospace, defense, and automotive verticals. The Millennium CFD simulation platform secured two meaningful deals in Q4. The acquisition of BETA CAE performed ahead of expectations, with major expansions at marquee automakers. Allegro X AI, the industry's first fully automated PCB design engine, is enabling up to a 10x productivity gain for customers.

    04

    IP Business Turnaround and Expansion

    The IP business saw a strong finish to the year, growing 28% year-over-year in Q4, marking a significant turnaround for 2024. This growth is attributed to technically superior portfolio (HBM, DDR, PCIe, UCIe), increased customer engagement, and rising foundry activity. Cadence is expanding its IP portfolio, including the recent definitive agreement to acquire Secure-IC for embedded security IP. Partnerships with Rapidus for 2nm memory interface IP and AST SpaceMobile for AI-driven IP solutions further underscore this momentum.

    05

    Core EDA Strength and Hardware Demand

    The core EDA business, encompassing digital, custom analog, and verification portfolios, grew 15% year-over-year in Q4. Demand for best-in-class Palladium Z3 and Protium X3 systems remains strong, with the hardware family delivering a record year, adding over 30 new customers and almost 200 repeat customers in 2024. The digital portfolio gained 36 new full-flow customers in 2024, including 17 in Q4. Virtuoso Studio is deployed at over 450 customers, and Spectre X achieved up to a 6x performance boost for MediaTek's 2nm designs.

    06

    Profitability and Rule of 40

    Cadence demonstrated strong profitability, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 46% in Q4 and 42.5% for the full year 2024. The company is guiding for continued improvement in profitability throughout 2025, with Q2 margins expected to exceed Q1, Q3 exceeding Q2, and Q4 exceeding Q3. For the first time, Cadence is guiding to a Rule of 40 (revenue growth + non-GAAP operating margin) exceeding 55% for the full year 2025, emphasizing its commitment to both growth and profitability.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.