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    CMG
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL Q4 FY25 earnings call CMG

    Feb 3, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Chipotle Q4 FY25 — Record Restaurant Growth and Strategic Initiatives Amidst Consumer Headwinds

    Chipotle delivered record restaurant growth and advanced strategic initiatives in FY25, including operational enhancements and menu innovation, despite a challenging consumer environment. The company is leaning into its 'Recipe for Growth' strategy, focusing on value, digital engagement, and global expansion. While 2026 guidance is conservative due to market unpredictability and inflation, management remains confident in its long-term margin and AUV targets, driven by transaction growth and strategic investments.

    Highlights

    5
    • Opened a record 334 new company-owned restaurants and 11 international partner-operated restaurants in FY25.

    • Active rewards members grew to over 21 million in 2025, with loyalty comps outpacing total comps by several hundred basis points in the second half of the year.

    • High-efficiency equipment package in 350 restaurants is showing hundreds of basis points improvement in comp sales.

    • Extra protein incidence increased 35% during the high-protein menu launch, with the double protein promotion achieving a record digital sales day.

    • Europe, specifically Central London and Frankfurt, reached strong cash-on-cash returns, unlocking growth for these markets in 2026.

    Concerns

    5
    • Reported a comparable restaurant sales decline of 2.5% in Q4 FY25.

    • Restaurant-level margin decreased 140 basis points year-over-year to 23.4% in Q4 FY25.

    • Full-year 2026 comparable restaurant sales are expected to be about flat, reflecting a conservative outlook.

    • Pricing (1-2%) is not expected to fully offset inflation (3-4%) in 2026, leading to margin pressure, particularly in Q1.

    • Q1 2026 comparable sales are expected to be negatively impacted by approximately 100 basis points due to winter storm-related restaurant closures.

    Guidance & targets

    22
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 comparable restaurant sales
    about flat
    high materiality
    Medium
    Full-year 2026 new restaurant openings
    350
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 cost of sales inflation
    mid-single-digit range
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Full-year 2026 pricing impact
    1% to 2% range
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Full-year 2026 inflation
    3% to 4% range
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Q1 2026 cost of sales
    mid-30% range
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Q1 2026 labor cost
    high 25% range
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Q1 2026 marketing costs
    mid-3% range
    low materiality
    Medium
    Full-year 2026 marketing costs
    low 3% range
    low materiality
    Medium
    Q1 2026 other operating costs
    mid-15% range
    low materiality
    Medium
    Q1 2026 G&A (non-GAAP)
    around $203 million
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Full-year 2026 depreciation % of sales
    around 3% of sales
    low materiality
    Medium
    Full-year 2026 underlying effective tax rate
    24% to 26% range
    low materiality
    Medium
    Long-term North America restaurant count
    7,000 restaurants
    high materiality
    High
    Middle East footprint and sales growth
    nearly double
    medium materiality
    High
    Middle East long-term restaurant count
    hundreds of restaurants
    medium materiality
    High
    New partner-operated markets
    Mexico, Singapore and South Korea
    medium materiality
    High
    High-efficiency equipment package rollout
    about 2,000 by year-end
    medium materiality
    High
    High-efficiency equipment package rollout completion
    sometime in 2027
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Menu innovation cadence
    4 limited time offers in 2026
    medium materiality
    High
    Build Your Own Chipotle trial promotion
    extending our trial promotion into 2026
    low materiality
    High
    Rewards program relaunch
    this spring
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    39
    Revenue growth
    5.4%YoY
    FY25

    Includes a 1.7% decline in comparable sales.

    Adjusted diluted earnings per share growth
    4.5%YoY
    FY25

    Adjusted diluted EPS reached $1.17.

    Digital sales
    37.2%
    Q4

    Represents a significant portion of total sales.

    Restaurant-level margin
    23.4%down 140 bps YoY
    Q4

    Impacted by lower sales volumes and higher operating costs.

    Cost of sales
    30.2%decrease of about 20 bps from last year
    Q4

    Benefited from menu price, lower dairy prices, and cost efficiencies, offsetting inflation in beef and chicken.

    Tariff impact on cost of sales
    30 bps
    Q4

    Impacted Q4 cost of sales.

    Ongoing tariff impact
    around 15 bps
    Ongoing

    Anticipated after the recent removal of tariffs on beef and other agricultural goods.

    Labor costs
    25.5%increase of about 30 bps from last year
    Q4

    Higher pricing and lower performance-based bonuses were offset by lower volumes and wage inflation.

    Other operating costs
    15.5%increase of about 100 bps from last year
    Q4

    Primarily driven by higher marketing, delivery, and utility costs, as well as lower sales volumes.

    Marketing costs
    3.5%increase of about 50 bps from last year
    Q4

    Accelerated marketing spend to remain top of mind with guests.

    G&A (GAAP)
    $160 million
    Q4

    Reported on a GAAP basis.

    G&A (non-GAAP)
    $162 million
    Q4

    Excludes specific items and includes underlying G&A, stock compensation, and conference costs.

    Depreciation
    3.1%
    Q4

    As a percentage of sales.

    Effective tax rate (GAAP)
    23.7%
    Q4

    Benefited from an increase in U.S. federal income tax credits.

    Effective tax rate (non-GAAP)
    23.4%
    Q4

    Benefited from an increase in U.S. federal income tax credits.

    Cash, restricted cash and investments balance
    $1.3 billion
    End of Q4

    Company ended the quarter with no debt.

    Share repurchase amount
    $742 million
    Q4

    Part of the share repurchase program.

    Share repurchase amount
    $2.4 billionrecord
    FY25

    Record full-year repurchase amount.

    Share repurchase authorization (additional)
    $1.8 billion
    Q4

    Authorized by the Board.

    Share repurchase authorization (remaining)
    $1.7 billion
    End of Q4

    Remaining authorization at the end of the quarter.

    High-efficiency equipment package restaurants
    350
    Today

    These restaurants are showing compelling results.

    Extra protein incidence increase
    35%
    During menu launch

    Indicates strong adoption of the high-protein menu items.

    Build Your Own Chipotle and Catering combined sales
    less than 3%
    Today

    Identified as a long-term opportunity for double-digit percentage of sales.

    Active rewards members
    over 21 milliongrew
    2025

    Growth attributed to campaigns like Summer of Extras and Freepotle.

    Rewards platform sales
    about 30%
    Current

    Significant runway for growth remains, especially for in-restaurant transactions.

    In-restaurant transactions through rewards program
    about 20%
    Current

    Compared to nearly 90% of app transactions, indicating an opportunity for engagement.

    New restaurant growth
    over 9%
    2025

    Reflects overall expansion.

    Company-owned restaurants opened
    334record
    2025

    Contributed to surpassing 4,000 company-owned restaurants.

    Company-owned restaurants total
    surpassed 4,000
    December

    Milestone achieved in December.

    Canada openings
    21increase of 38% YoY
    2025

    Significant growth in the Canadian market.

    Partner-operated restaurants opened (Middle East)
    11
    FY25

    Includes 7 openings in Q4, bringing total to 14 in the region.

    Partner-operated restaurants total (Middle East)
    14
    End of FY25

    Total footprint in the Middle East region.

    Internal promotions
    23,000
    2025

    Reflects commitment to promoting top talent from within.

    Regional VP roles promoted internally
    100%
    2025

    All regional VP roles filled by internal promotions.

    Field leader positions promoted internally
    over 83%
    2025

    High percentage of field leader positions filled by internal promotions.

    Restaurant management promoted internally
    nearly 90%
    2025

    High percentage of restaurant management roles filled by internal promotions.

    Q1 2026 comp range (underlying)
    minus 1% to minus 2%
    Q1 2026

    This range is embedded in expense line guidance and includes the storm impact.

    Q1 2026 comp impact from winter storm
    about 100 basis points
    Q1 2026

    Negative impact on Q1 comps due to multistate restaurant closures.

    Core user income
    60%
    Current

    Refers to average household income of core users.

    Industry KPIs

    5
    MetricValueDetails
    Comparable sales comps-2.5%%
    Input cost inflation hedgingmid-single-digit range%
    Value affordability positioning$3.50USD
    Loyalty program members tier mixover 21 millionmembers
    Net unit growth development pipeline345restaurants

    Product announcements

    4
    ProductTypeDetails
    High-protein linelaunch
    Chicken al Pastorlaunch
    New saucesroadmap
    New sides and beveragesroadmap

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    Alshaya Groupregional partner

    Partnership for expansion in the Middle East, opened 11 partner-operated restaurants in FY25, with a total of 14 restaurants in the region.

    Large third-party delivery platformscatering partnership

    Ramping up marketing efforts for catering, including recent rollout with one of the large third-party delivery platforms.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Dynamic consumer backdropCurrent

    Guests placing heightened focus on value and pulling back on overall restaurant spending.

    Mitigation: Investing in operational excellence, marketing, menu innovation, and leveraging value propositions like the high-protein line.

    Inflation outpacing pricingFull-year 2026, widest gap in Q1

    Full-year 2026 pricing expected to be 1% to 2% while inflation is 3% to 4%. Q1 pricing impact of 70 bps compared to expected inflation approaching mid-single-digit range (~4%).

    Mitigation: Disciplined and measured approach to pricing, strengthening value proposition to maintain pricing power in future years, comprehensive supply chain review for strategic savings.

    Winter storm impact on Q1 compsQ1 2026

    About 100 basis points negative impact on Q1 comparable restaurant sales.

    Mitigation: Operational excellence and prioritization of speed and agility in reopening restaurants quickly and safely.

    Challenges in France marketOngoing

    Tough market due to wage inflation and occupancy costs.

    Mitigation: Need more time for recovery; focus on other adjacent markets for expansion.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    What are the underlying assumptions for transactions, menu price, and mix in the 'about flat' comp guidance for 2026, and what cadence is expected given positive January trends?

    The full-year guidance is conservative due to early year and unpredictable consumer trends, with only a modest impact from initiatives embedded. Comps are expected to improve throughout the year as initiatives drive transactions and compares become easier.

    our full year guide only includes, I would say, really a modest impact from the initiatives that we have this year. And then when you're thinking about how this works out throughout the rest of the year, we expect comps to improve throughout the year as our initiatives drive transactions and as our lap -- or sorry, as our compares get a little bit easier throughout the year.

    asked by Brian Mullan · answered by Adam Rymer

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Recipe for Growth Strategy

    Chipotle has outlined its 'Recipe for Growth' strategy, built on five key pillars. These include protecting and strengthening the core business through operational and culinary excellence, evolving brand messaging and accelerating menu innovation to drive demand, modernizing the business model with industry-leading technology and AI, expanding global reach with intention, and cultivating top talent. This strategy is designed to enhance competitiveness and deliver exceptional value to guests in a dynamic consumer landscape.

    02

    Operational Excellence and High-Efficiency Equipment Package

    A key component of operational excellence is the accelerated rollout of the high-efficiency equipment package. This equipment improves prep time by 2 to 3 hours, reduces the learning curve for new team members, and enhances culinary consistency, resulting in juicier steak and chicken. Currently, 350 restaurants have the full package, with plans to reach 2,000 by year-end 2026 and complete the rollout by 2027. Restaurants with the new equipment are showing compelling results, including higher taste and guest satisfaction scores, better throughput, and hundreds of basis points improvement in comparable sales.

    03

    Brand Positioning and Menu Innovation

    Chipotle is sharpening its brand positioning to emphasize value, high-quality protein, fiber, and clean ingredients, which align with current consumer trends. The recent high-protein line launch, featuring a single taco for $3.50 and a protein cup for around $3.80, highlights this value proposition and caters to evolving dietary needs, including GLP-1 users. The company plans to increase its menu innovation cadence to four limited-time offers in 2026, starting with the return of Chicken al Pastor, to drive traffic and increase frequency among existing and new guests.

    04

    Group Occasions and Catering Expansion

    Chipotle sees significant long-term opportunity in group occasions and catering, which currently represent less than 3% of combined sales but could grow to double-digit percentages. The 'Build Your Own Chipotle' offering for families and groups of 4 to 6 is performing well and is highly incremental, leading to an extension of its trial promotion into 2026. Catering tests are progressing with new equipment and technology, including a recent rollout on a large third-party delivery platform, showing early positive signs for scaling the business.

    05

    Rewards Program Relaunch and Digital Engagement

    The company is relaunching its rewards program in spring 2026 to widen the funnel and leverage data and AI for personalized experiences. In 2025, active members grew to over 21 million, with loyalty comps outpacing total comps. While about 30% of sales are through the rewards platform, only 20% of in-restaurant transactions utilize it, presenting a significant opportunity. The relaunch will focus on engaging in-restaurant guests and removing checkout friction, supported by gamification and targeted campaigns.

    06

    Accelerating Global Expansion

    Chipotle opened a record 345 new restaurants in 2025, including 334 company-owned (surpassing 4,000 total) and 11 partner-operated internationally. Canada saw 21 new openings, a 38% increase year-over-year. In Europe, Central London and Frankfurt markets have achieved strong cash-on-cash returns, enabling growth in 2026. The Middle East partnership with Alshaya Group resulted in 11 new partner-operated restaurants in 2025, with plans to nearly double the footprint and sales in 2026, including entry into Saudi Arabia. Mexico, Singapore, and South Korea are also slated for first partner-operated openings in 2026.

    07

    Talent Development and Leadership Changes

    Chipotle emphasizes internal talent development, with 23,000 internal promotions in 2025, including 100% of Regional Vice President roles and nearly 90% of restaurant management. The company announced leadership changes, promoting Ilene Eskenazi to Chief Legal and Human Resources Officer. Additionally, national searches are underway for a new Chief Marketing Officer, Chief Digital Officer, and Vice President of Emerging Technologies to further drive the 'Recipe for Growth' strategy and enhance efficiency and innovation.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.