Skip to content
    CMI
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    CUMMINS Q4 FY25 earnings call CMI

    Feb 5, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Cummins Q4 FY25 — Record Profitability Despite Truck Market Downturn

    Cummins delivered strong financial performance in Q4 and full-year FY25, achieving record adjusted EBITDA despite a significant downturn in North American truck markets. This was driven by robust demand in global power generation and pickup truck volumes, alongside effective cost management and pricing. The company is streamlining its Accelera segment and anticipates a modest recovery in North America truck markets in H2 2026, while continuing to invest in strategic growth areas and return cash to shareholders.

    Highlights

    5
    • Record full-year adjusted EBITDA of $5.8 billion or 17.4% of sales in FY25, up from 15.7% in FY24, excluding one-time items.

    • Power Systems delivered record full-year EBITDA of 22.7% of sales in FY25, up from 18.4% in FY24.

    • Distribution segment achieved record full-year EBITDA of 14.6% of sales in FY25, up from 12.1% in FY24.

    • Q4 FY25 adjusted EBITDA improved to 16% compared to 15.8% a year ago, despite a 30% decline in North America heavy and medium-duty truck engine volume.

    • Operating cash flow in Q4 FY25 was an inflow of $1.5 billion, up $112 million from a year ago.

    Concerns

    5
    • North America heavy and medium-duty truck markets experienced weak demand, with engine volumes declining 30% in Q4 FY25.

    • FY25 revenues decreased 1% to $33.7 billion due to lower North America heavy and medium-duty truck demand.

    • Accelera segment reported a net operating loss of $438 million in FY25, with $458 million in charges related to the electrolyzer business.

    • India total revenues, including joint ventures, are projected to decrease 5% in 2026, with truck industry demand down 10% to flat.

    • China total revenue, including joint ventures, is projected to decrease 1% in 2026, with heavy and medium-duty truck demand down 10% to flat.

    Guidance & targets

    26
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Total company revenues
    up 3% to 8%
    high materiality
    High
    Company EBITDA margin
    17% to 18%
    high materiality
    High
    North America heavy-duty trucks industry production
    220,000 to 240,000 units
    medium materiality
    Medium
    North America medium-duty trucks market size
    110,000 to 120,000 units
    medium materiality
    Medium
    North America pickup trucks engine shipments
    125,000 to 140,000
    medium materiality
    Medium
    China total revenue (including joint ventures)
    decrease 1%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    China heavy and medium-duty truck demand
    down 10% to flat
    medium materiality
    Medium
    India total revenues (including joint ventures)
    decrease 5%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    India trucks industry demand
    down 10% to flat
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Global construction market
    down 5% to up 5%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Global power generation markets revenues
    increase 10% to 20%
    high materiality
    High
    Mining engines sales
    flat to up 10%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Aftermarket revenues
    up 2% to 8%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Engine segment revenues
    flat to up 5%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Engine segment EBITDA margin
    12% to 13%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Components segment revenues
    flat to up 5%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Components segment EBITDA margin
    13% to 14%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Distribution segment revenues
    grow 5% to 10%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Distribution segment EBITDA margin
    13.25% to 14.25%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Power Systems segment revenues
    up 12% to 17%
    high materiality
    High
    Power Systems segment EBITDA margin
    23% to 24%
    high materiality
    High
    Accelera revenues
    $300 million to $350 million
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Accelera net losses
    $325 million to $355 million
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Effective tax rate
    approximately 24%
    low materiality
    High
    Capital investments
    $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Capital allocation to shareholders
    at least 50% of operating cash flow
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    5
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Engine
    EBITDA was down compared to 14.1% in the prior year, primarily due to lower North American heavy and medium-duty truck volumes.
    $10.9 billion-7%12.7% EBITDA
    Components
    EBITDA was up compared to 13.5% in 2024, as the impact of lower truck volumes was more than offset by cost reduction improvements.
    $10.1 billion-10%13.8% EBITDA
    Distribution
    Record revenues and EBITDA, up 250 basis points from a year ago, driven by higher power generation volumes and pricing.
    $12.4 billion9%14.6% EBITDA
    Power Systems
    Record revenues and EBITDA, up 430 basis points from 2024, driven primarily by demand for power generation equipment, especially in data center applications in North America and China.
    $7.5 billion16%22.7% EBITDA
    Accelera
    Net operating loss compared to $452 million in the prior year. Costs were lowered in existing operations, partially offset by higher product coverage costs in Q4.
    $460 million-$438 million net operating loss

    Operational metrics

    24
    Q4 FY25 EBITDA
    $1.2 billion13.5% vs 12.1% YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Reported EBITDA, including $218 million of charges related to the electrolyzer business.

    Q4 FY25 Adjusted EBITDA
    $1.4 billion16% vs 15.8% YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Excluding $218 million of charges related to the electrolyzer business in Q4 FY25 and $312 million of charges related to Accelera reorganization in Q4 FY24.

    FY25 EBITDA
    $5.4 billion16% vs 18.6% YoY
    FY25

    Reported EBITDA, including $458 million of charges related to the electrolyzer business.

    FY25 Adjusted EBITDA
    $5.8 billion17.4% vs 15.7% YoY
    FY25

    Excluding $458 million of electrolyzer charges in FY25, and $1.3 billion gain from Atmus separation, $312 million Accelera reorganization charges, and $29 million other restructuring actions in FY24.

    Q4 FY25 Gross margin
    $2 billion22.9% vs 24.1% YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Impacted by lower North American truck volumes, higher product coverage, and dilutive impact of tariffs, partially offset by stronger power generation demand, pricing, and operational efficiency.

    Q4 FY25 Selling, admin and research expenses
    $1.1 billion13.3% vs 13.7% YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Primarily due to strong cost control and lower compensation expenses.

    Q4 FY25 Joint venture income
    $116 millionincreased $46 million
    Q4 FY25

    Primarily driven by higher volumes in China joint ventures on and off highway.

    Q4 FY25 Other income
    -$58 millionvs -$196 million YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Includes $80 million related to electrolyzer charges in Q4 FY25; Q4 FY24 included $171 million related to Accelera reorganization costs. Excluding these, other income increased by $50 million due to mark-to-market gains on investments.

    Q4 FY25 Interest expense
    $82 milliondecrease of $7 million
    Q4 FY25

    Driven by lower weighted average interest rates.

    Q4 FY25 Effective tax rate
    21.6%
    Q4 FY25

    Includes favorable discrete items.

    Q4 FY25 Net earnings
    $593 million$4.27 per diluted share
    Q4 FY25

    Includes $215 million or $1.54 per diluted share of charges related to the electrolyzer business.

    Q4 FY25 Adjusted EPS
    $5.81
    Q4 FY25

    Excluding charges related to the electrolyzer business.

    FY25 Net earnings
    $2.8 billion$20.50 per diluted share vs $28.37 per diluted share YoY
    FY25

    Reported net earnings.

    FY25 Adjusted Net earnings
    $3.3 billion$23.78 per diluted share vs $21.37 per diluted share YoY
    FY25

    Excluding one-time charges.

    FY25 Capital expenditures
    $1.2 billionflat vs 2024
    FY25

    Investments in new products and capabilities, particularly on-highway HELM platforms and Power Systems capacity.

    Capital returned to shareholders (dividend)
    $1.1 billion
    FY25

    Returned via dividend, maintaining A credit rating metrics.

    Tariff drag on EBITDA percentage
    50
    FY26

    Net full year drag for 2026, primarily from inflated revenues and costs of sales, not dollar losses.

    North America heavy and medium-duty truck engine volume
    30%decline
    Q4 FY25

    Combined decline in Q4 FY25.

    North America sales
    -2%YoY
    Q4 FY25

    Sales in North America.

    International revenues
    5%increase
    Q4 FY25

    International revenues.

    Foreign currency movements impact on sales
    <1%positive impact
    Q4 FY25

    Positive impact on sales.

    Data center revenue
    $2.6 billion
    FY24

    Total company revenue from data centers in 2024.

    Data center revenue
    $3.5 billionup 30-35% YoY
    FY25

    Total company revenue from data centers in 2025, hitting the upper bound of expectations.

    EPA27 NOx rule content add
    $10,000 to $15,000
    FY27

    Estimated content add per heavy-duty truck associated with the 2027 EPA low NOx rule.

    Industry KPIs

    8
    MetricValueDetails
    Capacity expansionDoubling capacity
    Tariff cost impact50bps
    Emissions prebuy dynamicsSome pre-buy
    Price realization vs costNot a big feature
    Parts aftermarket businessup 2% to 8%%
    Data center prime power demand$3.5 billionUSD
    Order backlog order intake by segmentRecord order intake
    Industry production market size forecasts220,000 to 240,000 unitsunits

    Orderbook & backlog

    1
    Power generation order intakeRecord levelQ4 FY25

    Record in Q4, after record in Q3

    Orders are being taken well into 2028.

    Product announcements

    3
    ProductTypeDetails
    X10 Enginelaunch
    B7.2 Diesel Enginelaunch
    S17 Centum Gen Setlaunch

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    First Modeacquisition

    Acquired assets of First Mode, a leader in retrofit hybrid solutions for mining and rail operations. This technology represents the first commercially available retrofit system for mining equipment.

    Komatsupartnership

    Announced a collaboration to develop hybrid powertrains for surface hauling mining equipment. This joint development effort will leverage the breadth and scale of both companies' global capabilities.

    Risks & headwinds

    6
    Weak demand in North America truck marketsQ4 FY25, continuing into H1 FY26

    North America heavy and medium-duty truck engine volume declined by a combined 30% in Q4 FY25.

    Mitigation: Anticipate strengthening in H2 FY26; diversified portfolio across geographies and markets.

    Ongoing trade tariff volatilityFY25, FY26

    Tariffs diluted the EBITDA percent of every segment in 2025 and will continue to do so in 2026. Net full year drag of approximately 50 bps on EBITDA % for 2026.

    Mitigation: Working to recover costs and mitigate impact; focused on commercial agreements with customers; awaiting clarity on Section 232 engine offset program details.

    Uncertain regulatory landscapeFY25, ongoing

    Policy-driven shifts in hydrogen demand led to $458 million in charges related to the electrolyzer business in FY25.

    Mitigation: Streamlining Accelera segment, pacing and refocusing investments on most promising paths; EPA's confirmation of 2027 low NOx rule provides some clarity for product plans.

    Weakness in China heavy and medium-duty truck demandFY26

    Projected down 10% to flat for FY26.

    Mitigation: Offset partially by growth in data center demand; expecting export demand to remain high.

    Weak replacement demand and limited infrastructure spending in IndiaFY26

    Projected total revenues to decrease 5% in FY26; industry demand for trucks down 10% to flat.

    Mitigation: Not explicitly stated, but diversified portfolio helps.

    Geopolitical uncertainties impacting global construction export demandFY26

    China export demand slightly down, contributing to global construction range of down 5% to up 5% YoY for FY26.

    Mitigation: Domestic demand in China and North America expected to be roughly flat.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    Can you update on capacity additions for diesel Power Systems, natural gas product thoughts, and current lead times?

    Cummins completed doubling 95-liter engine capacity ahead of schedule and launched the Centum product line, seeing strong demand. They are taking orders into 2028 for power generation. They continue to evaluate opportunities for further capacity increases and new products, with current investments focused on low-risk, high-visibility demand areas. Natural gas products are being considered but require confidence in multi-year market demand.

    We're taking orders now well into 2028. So the demand remains very strong for diesel backup, power, and we're well positioned with the product and channel support that we offer to provide that.

    asked by Jerry Revich · answered by Jennifer Rumsey

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Portfolio Evolution and Product Innovation

    Cummins continued to evolve its portfolio in 2025, introducing the X10 engine as part of the HELM platforms, replacing the L9 and X12. The new B7.2 diesel engine was also unveiled, designed as a global platform. Both the B7.2 and X10 engines for North America will be manufactured at the Rocky Mount Engine Plant. In Power Systems, the company acquired First Mode assets for retrofit hybrid mining solutions and collaborated with Komatsu on hybrid powertrains for surface hauling mining equipment, aiming to bridge current operational needs with low-carbon goals.

    02

    Power Systems Capacity Expansion and Data Center Demand

    The Power Systems business successfully completed its capacity expansion on the 95-liter engine ahead of schedule, positioning it to meet rising demand, particularly from data centers. The new 17-liter engine platform generator, the S17 Centum gen set, was launched, producing up to 1 megawatt of power in a compact design for critical market segments like commercial properties and healthcare facilities. The company reported record order intake in Q4 for power generation, with orders extending well into 2028, indicating strong and sustained demand for diesel backup power.

    03

    Accelera Segment Streamlining and Investment Pacing

    Cummins initiated a strategic review of its electrolyzer business within the Accelera segment in Q4 2025, leading to $218 million in charges. This action aims to streamline operations and focus investments amid policy-driven shifts in hydrogen demand, lowering future costs. While committed to a multi-solution strategy, the company is pacing and refocusing investments as the zero-emissions landscape evolves, reducing participation in electrolyzers while fulfilling existing commitments.

    04

    Impact of Tariffs and Regulatory Environment

    The company continues to navigate a dynamic trade and regulatory environment, including ongoing tariff volatility🌐. While the gross impact of tariffs accumulated through 2025, particularly in Q4, Cummins has largely mitigated these costs. For 2026, tariffs are expected to result in a net full-year drag of approximately 50 basis points on EBITDA percentage, primarily due to inflated revenues and costs of sales. EPA's confirmation of the 2027 low NOx rule provides regulatory certainty, with Cummins well-positioned with its product plans.

    05

    North America Truck Market Outlook and Pre-buy Dynamics

    Cummins anticipates continued weakness in North America heavy and medium-duty truck markets in the first half of 2026, with strengthening expected in the second half. The company is cautiously optimistic💬 about a potential pre-buy ahead of the 2027 EPA low NOx rule, which will add $10,000 to $15,000 in content per heavy-duty truck, primarily in the powertrain. The timing and magnitude of this pre-buy, combined with a natural recovery from the down cycle, will influence the second-half performance.

    06

    Capital Allocation and Financial Flexibility

    Cummins has worked to restore its credit metrics, achieving a strong financial position with flexibility. The company's current year investments can be funded within existing cash flow operations. While maintaining a long-term goal of returning at least 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases, the company has the flexibility to deploy more capital to shareholders, balancing organic investment, dividend growth, and maintaining its A credit rating metrics.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.