Core & Main Q1 FY27 earnings call CNM

Q1 net sales were $1.9B, flat versus a strong prior year (~10% growth), with organic volumes down ~1% and acquisitions adding ~1 point; management estimates overall end-market demand was down low-single-digits. Municipal remained the most stable end market, supported by aging infrastructure, nondiscretionary repair-and-replacement work, and ~95% of water-infrastructure funding coming from state and local sources. Nonresidential was mixed but stable, with data center and manufacturing strength offsetting soft light commercial (retail/office). Residential declined YoY on Sunbelt weakness against a strong comp, though sequentially stable versus Q4 and in line with expectations.

Management stressed that municipal demand extends well beyond any single federal funding cycle, with ~95% of water-infrastructure funding state and local. On IIJA, remaining funding is expected to hit state revolving funds this year, but there is no cliff: only about one-third or less has reached the municipality level, a portion is grant and a portion low-interest loans that recycle back into the SRFs. Municipalities are also raising water rates and issuing more municipal bonds, supporting ample funding across short, medium and long term.

Smart utility grew high-single-digits and treatment plant double-digits in the quarter, with ~15% and ~25% net sales CAGRs respectively over the past five years. Core & Main provides an integrated turnkey model—hardware, software, analytics, installation, project management and ongoing service—partnering with over a dozen software/analytics firms and a growing network of sensor-hardware innovators. Following what it called the largest smart utility contract in U.S. history (prior call), it won several additional large multiyear programs. Treatment plant is mid-single-digit percent of sales and one of the fastest-growing initiatives; management wants to build toward more integrated turnkey capabilities, partly via M&A.

Data centers are a growing driver, with a steady stream of new project wins across 15-18 market concentrations nationally; the work aligns with the company's core underground waterworks products and requires high project-management precision. Fire protection sales rose ~17% YoY, benefiting from data center and multifamily construction, higher steel prices (after roughly two years of drag), improved execution over the last 12-18 months, and share gains. Fire protection also carries significant private label, aiding gross margin.

Overall pricing was roughly flat in Q1—virtually every product category flat or up—with PVC a YoY headwind due to prior-year declines. PVC has stabilized sequentially and supplier price-increase announcements have begun, potentially a modest back-half tailwind (mostly Q3), though PVC will still be down YoY. Gross margin expanded ~50 bps YoY to 27.2%, driven by private-label growth, sourcing optimization and disciplined pricing/purchasing; management expects margins to hold near Q1 levels through the year, a YoY benefit.

Operating cash flow was $82M, up $5M YoY, with the majority of annual cash generation expected in H2. Trailing-12-month free cash flow yield was 6.4% of market cap—more than double the S&P 500 average and above specialty-distribution peers. The company returned $88M via buybacks in Q1 (~1.8M shares, its highest single-quarter open-market repurchase), $125M fiscal-YTD, and had repurchased 2.5M shares through fiscal 2026 including post-quarter activity—about 80% of all FY25 buybacks. Net debt was $2B at 2.2x leverage, within target; liquidity was ~$1.4B including $150M cash.

After an acknowledged M&A lull, management sees a notably improved pipeline—from small core tuck-ins to larger deals and municipal/treatment-plant-adjacent opportunities—with several in late stages; it expects to get back on track or overperform M&A goals. Treatment plant is a priority for acquisitions to broaden the product scope (e.g., actuated valves, engineered pipe stands, metal fabrications). On greenfields, five opened in Q1 toward a record 8-10 for the year, focused on reinforcing position in key large/high-project-activity markets. Susan Hardwick, former American Water CEO, joined the Board, adding regulated-utility customer perspective.